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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #46,401
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:09am Oct 20, 2009 12:09am
morning yawl, heres one ill be watching out for today. gb/cad daily IB. I am not sure how far she will run and i dont know if we will get new lows but i think it has some promise if played tightly?? any thought welcome??
cheers
jon

p.s. the trade running is on demo and i plan to reverse it on the break of the IB ??
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,402
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:22am Oct 20, 2009 12:22am
remember this chart??(weekly) well we now have a daily IB which if breaks to the downside could give us a nice entry for the weekly bar??
any comments welcome
cheers
jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,403
  • Edited 12:46am Oct 20, 2009 12:35am | Edited 12:46am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
morning yawl, heres one ill be watching out for today. gb/cad daily IB. I am not sure how far she will run and i dont know if we will get new lows but i think it has some promise if played tightly?? any thought welcome??
cheers
jon
Couple of quick ones:

D1
- that's a small setup following a big move. As someone smarter than me once put it, dont pick up pennies in front of a freight train

H4
- I'd be hesitant to call that a double top, given it occurs at the bottom. Retest of a PPZ? sure.

- that isnt really bearish divergence. If anything, it is bullish on the RSI and non-existant on the MACD... As for RSI divergence in general, the only use I have ever really found for it is in looking for a trend change, which doesnt really apply here. And it usually jumps around like an epileptic kangaroo. Be interested in hearing from anyone who uses it more consistently.

Overall, I wouldnt exactly be loading up here. Tread carefully, friend

Quoting supremeChaos
i envy your trade office, lol
I wish - my 'trading office' is a spare bedroom that leaks in thunderstorms and doubles as a storage unit... dont be too jealous, I'm on my April holiday, lol
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #46,404
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:54am Oct 20, 2009 12:54am
Quoting TiaForex
I took a 1R loss on the AJ as well and I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts based on the discussion so far.

I think it feels terrible to take a loss when you think you're the only one who did it. And of course, as people have mentioned, forums naturally create a phenomenon whereby you see more people post winners than losers and so you can get the view that everyone else is making money and you're the bozo striking out.

The lesson, if that's the way you're thinking, is not to focus on what anyone else is doing but to focus on yourself. It...

why is it a loss?? how tight was your stop above the daily bar..

on my feed my stop has not been hit. I played this as a normal daily bar as it is my daily srategy... Its no problem... it happens.. its only one trade.

with my daily trades I set & forget them... but I see some people here not happy that it did not go as planned...?

Well when you do this long enough you will realize that things dont go as planned all the time.. Remember its just a game of probabilities...
to prove what I am saying here is my chart of my trade..
will I take a loss???? maybe but it happens... may it come all the way back & make me cash.. equal chance in my opinion... the trade is not over till my stop is hit. weather for profit or loss..
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  • #46,405
  • Oct 20, 2009 1:17am Oct 20, 2009 1:17am
Quoting rustyjeff
...
on my feed my stop has not been hit. I played this as a normal daily bar as it is my daily srategy... Its no problem... it happens.. its only one trade.
...
RSI-wise, i can see why u like this one.
was your stop 15-30pips above the 84.20 FXPro PB high?
imho, price will have a chance for further stab downwards if price can move through 83 - 83.50 with momentum. otherwise, aud strength will continue to prevail.
anyway, i'm sure u know that already Sir.
  • #46,406
  • Oct 20, 2009 1:51am Oct 20, 2009 1:51am
Quoting joelcf
Couple of quick ones:

D1
- that's a small setup following a big move. As someone smarter than me once put it, dont pick up pennies in front of a freight train

H4
- I'd be hesitant to call that a double top, given it occurs at the bottom. Retest of a PPZ? sure.

- that isnt really bearish divergence. If anything, it is bullish on the RSI and non-existant on the MACD... As for RSI divergence in general, the only use I have ever really found for it is in looking for a trend change, which doesnt really apply here. And it usually jumps around...
thanx for your thoughts Joel,appreciated.
i agree with your points except the bit about the divergence. although i dont see it as anything strong i do see it as bearish?the bullish div. you mention i think has already played out? i have been using RSI for divergence for some years now and i find it ti be a pretty good indication of price exhaustion and possible trend change.Could you eleborate why you dont think there is div. on the macd??
cheers
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,407
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:11am Oct 20, 2009 2:11am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
remember this chart??(weekly) well we now have a daily IB which if breaks to the downside could give us a nice entry for the weekly bar??
any comments welcome
cheers
jon
Now what??
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  • #46,408
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:20am Oct 20, 2009 2:20am
Quoting nasir.khan
Now what??
well speaking for me i have my stop on the last half of my possition at .9155 so i will wait n see if it gets hit or not??
jon
a better place for my stop for me, would be at BE (.9176)but im not prepared to give it all back even though im in profit!!
EDIT: im actually short gb/us for a quick scalp. my stop is at BE and i have closed 50% for a return of about 1:1,si that makes up for any profit i give back on the eu/gb short
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,409
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:24am Oct 20, 2009 2:24am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
morning yawl, heres one ill be watching out for today. gb/cad daily IB. I am not sure how far she will run and i dont know if we will get new lows but i think it has some promise if played tightly?? any thought welcome??
cheers
jon

p.s. the trade running is on demo and i plan to reverse it on the break of the IB ??
Hey G_J_hook@yah....
thought id put my thoughts on that GBPCAD chart you posted earlier...

i dont have a GBPCAD pair on my platform unfortunately otherwise i might be able to give a more educated analysis (its probably played out already so my thoughts are probably pointless)....

i dont really play with divergence much....get confused or think about entering when i shouldn't

would you mind posting a chart when it has played out so i can see what happened?

best
rich
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  • #46,410
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:35am Oct 20, 2009 2:35am
Quoting zimdonks
Hey G_J_hook@yah....
thought id put my thoughts on that GBPCAD chart you posted earlier...

i dont have a GBPCAD pair on my platform unfortunately otherwise i might be able to give a more educated analysis (its probably played out already so my thoughts are probably pointless)....

i dont really play with divergence much....get confused or think about entering when i shouldn't

would you mind posting a chart when it has played out so i can see what happened?

best
rich
hi mate, i also have that wedge/triangle drawn in from the 1h TF and looks to be testing its lower boundriy as i type. You will find that many of these IBs come out as some kind off pattern on a lower
TF. i am just about to leave my computer for a while so i will try and find some charts to illustrate divergence later today.
jon
EDIT: the area where you indicated you would draw in your PPZ is also valid imo, i just didnt draw it in as i was trying to illustrate the PPZ shown on the weekly and daily charts.
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,411
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:45am Oct 20, 2009 2:45am
watching GU.....

i bought on break of 1H buob using 5min TF. picked up 30pips but assumed it would go higher and have since been stopped out (my analysis is on charts).


can anyone see where i could have gone wrong??.... G_J_hook@yah, what can you see? im a bit annoyed
edit: always helps if you draw in the PPZ's (1.6425 area)- im a twit!
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  • #46,412
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:54am Oct 20, 2009 2:54am
Quoting zimdonks
watching GU.....

i bought on break of 1H buob using 5min TF. picked up 30pips but assumed it would go higher and have since been stopped out (my analysis is on charts).


can anyone see where i could have gone wrong??.... G_J_hook@yah, what can you see? im a bit annoyed
edit: always helps if you draw in the PPZ's (1.6425 area)- im a twit!
Hey Zim

Remember we want to play BUOBs at swing lows with good confluence, big bars. This is a 1hr timeframe, small buob at a swing high.

Just a friendly reminder to remember to follow james16 minimum requirements as per post 1. They are there to help I promise

Mike
  • #46,413
  • Edited 3:39am Oct 20, 2009 3:28am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Zim

Remember we want to play BUOBs at swing lows with good confluence, big bars. This is a 1hr timeframe, small buob at a swing high.

Just a friendly reminder to remember to follow james16 minimum requirements as per post 1. They are there to help I promise

Mike
Thanks mike, points always well taken!! i have only come as far as i am in trading because of people like you.

i played this as a breakout, when 1H closed above 1.6400, with a 5min rejection immediately before close.

i think i was overly bullish and got ahead of myself - particularly bad mistake was not recognising the strong resistance above 1.6400.
had i noticed the PPZ above i would have played it as a short term trade with a tight SL i think - or a smaller lot with a larger SL. i am still bullish biased.

thanks for the reminder mike, sometimes we all need to stop and go back to basics.
  • #46,414
  • Oct 20, 2009 4:04am Oct 20, 2009 4:04am
Quoting supremeChaos
well, if it's a losing trade & u know it, & yet u stay a bit longer, it will sting more
if it's a losing trade & u know it, then abandon the ship ASAP

As per my post here I can confirm what SC is saying. Wasn't a winner but didn't "feel" as bad as a looser. Actually, almost felt like a win, psychologically speaking that is.
A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #46,415
  • Oct 20, 2009 4:36am Oct 20, 2009 4:36am
Quoting Jazflyer
As per my post here I can confirm what SC is saying. Wasn't a winner but didn't "feel" as bad as a looser. Actually, almost felt like a win, psychologically speaking that is.
certainly Sir. i know because i have experienced it before, MANY times. i still experience & make mistakes up to now, but they happen less & less [we (should) learn as we grow].
Psychology is a big part of trading (skill is just a minor part of trading), so a win psychologically speaking is a big win.

anyway, there's always another trade coming, right.
  • #46,416
  • Oct 20, 2009 4:56am Oct 20, 2009 4:56am
Quoting dengzhi
I only saw a couple posts on the AUD/JPY pinbar loss. I know a lot more people in this thread took a loss on that trade. but hey no1 likes to brag about losses right? if that trade turned out to be a winner there would be 20 posts here about how it was such a perfect setup and it was an A trade.

personally i thought it was a setup in the A category too.. i think jarro gave it a A- too but he did not take it..

decent setup at the top, plenty of room to run, it broke, and turned around and burned me for 1.5%.. ouch (i normally risk no more than...
I was looking at this as well. Not much experience, doing this only about 6 months. It looks nice, nice room, swing high, divergence. Didn't take it at the end. I'm not trying to be smart here, but I think the location is not THAT great. A bit higher would be very nice. If I remember correctly it was in one of the videos (maybe even guest section of PF?) when james talks about his search for profitability. It goes something like:

- if this happens, i take a trade - very bad results
- if this AND this happens, i take a trade - improved, but still bad
- if this AND this AND this happens, i take a trade - now this seems i'm on to something, so why not take it a bit further
- if this AND this AND this AND this happens, i take it - even better, now looking promising, so:
- if this AND this AND this AND this AND this happens.....

I think there just was not enough of ANDs in that AUD/JPY trade. Not that it could not work without them, but as Aaron said it, try taking 100 of those and as we're playing odds here, there just are better ods with more ANDs. Especially when you're new to this.

Primi
  • #46,417
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:40am Oct 20, 2009 5:40am
On Sunday I placed a trade on the EURUSD based on a price action pattern that is seldom discussed - that is matching highs. The basis for taking this trade was that the EURUSD was trending upwards and the matching highs represented a possible trend continuation breakout.

The highs of the bars acted as support dating back to August 2008. The trade triggered just before Mondays New York close and interestingly the Monday bar formed a BUOB as FX_Serg pointed out a few posts back. Now I realize that BUOB to be a valid trade signal should appear at swing lows but I believe in this case it suggests that the EURUSD may continue to trend upwards.

Would anyone like to comment on this trade I appreciate any and all feedback.

Cheers,
Mikali
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  • #46,418
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:45am Oct 20, 2009 5:45am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
well speaking for me i have my stop on the last half of my possition at .9155 so i will wait n see if it gets hit or not??
jon
a better place for my stop for me, would be at BE (.9176)but im not prepared to give it all back even though im in profit!!
EDIT: im actually short gb/us for a quick scalp. my stop is at BE and i have closed 50% for a return of about 1:1,si that makes up for any profit i give back on the eu/gb short
Hope you escaped with you SL (considering FXPro Spread). I will hide my SL behind 9140 after the BEOB and 9100 break (if it breaks).
  • #46,419
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:53am Oct 20, 2009 5:53am
Quoting Mikali
On Sunday I placed a trade on the EURUSD based on a price action pattern that is seldom discussed - that is matching highs. The basis for taking this trade was that the EURUSD was trending upwards and the matching highs represented a possible trend continuation breakout. ...
Speaking for PA i have no idea what are matching High's ( Working with PB & Outside Bars). But for Location you would hit 1.5 just after 31 pips for the rest see the chart.
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  • #46,420
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:05am Oct 20, 2009 6:05am
Quoting nasir.khan
Speaking for PA i have no idea what are matching High's ( Working with PB & Outside Bars). But for Location you would hit 1.5 just after 31 pips for the rest see the chart.
Hi nasir,

Thanks for the chart!!
I failed to look at the weekly chart prior to placing the trade and have my TP set at 1.5100. The safer bet could in fact be 1.5000. The trade triggered at 1.4966 so I will take 1/2 off the trade at 1.5000 and move my stop to BE on the remaining position.

Thanks for your input,

Mikali
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