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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #46,381
  • Oct 19, 2009 6:19pm Oct 19, 2009 6:19pm
Would you please give me some feedback regarding this trade?
I saw that daily BUOB was forming so I entered on H4 DBLHC. My SL is pretty far but then again I'm not playing even 10th of a lot.
The reason for entry is that EU has already tested 1.484 multiple times and according to PA I see that it's about to break the top and form a higher box.

I would appreciate your comments

Serg
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  • #46,382
  • Oct 19, 2009 6:34pm Oct 19, 2009 6:34pm
Well it looks like it is about time to take on break with live trading and go back to demo. I know i am not the sharpest knife around and i don't have a ton of time to dedicate to study working full time and weekends however it is somewhat discouraging to watch daily trades that are no brainers go down the tubes. Are they A trades? Not quite. But they are not junk either.

I know one mark of a trader is to know when to pull the trigger on a worthwhile trade regardless of the emotions (disappointment of past failures, high of recent winners, tired of waiting).

Anyways it is comforting see some good trades here. It is proof that PA does work. I guess since this is not a cut and dry "system" it takes a lot of screen time to develop the discretion to know what works for you. I think i am done with counter trend trades for a while.
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  • #46,383
  • Oct 19, 2009 6:44pm Oct 19, 2009 6:44pm
Quoting saskgui
Well it looks like it is about time to take on break with live trading and go back to demo. I know i am not the sharpest knife around and i don't have a ton of time to dedicate to study working full time and weekends however it is somewhat discouraging to watch daily trades that are no brainers go down the tubes. Are they A trades? Not quite. But they are not junk either.

I know one mark of a trader is to know when to pull the trigger on a worthwhile trade regardless of the emotions (disappointment of past failures, high of recent winners, tired...
I went long on the EURCAD and it isn't looking great right now... I was a little too aggressive though, as I didn't wait for the PB to break... had I done so, my order would not have activated... let's see what happens.
  • #46,384
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:00pm Oct 19, 2009 7:00pm
Haven't posted in a while as I'm learning to be picky.

I'm currently in this EUR/JPY Daily PB trade.

I know it's a poor PB, very small nose and open/close are not quite within the range of the previous bar, but I decided to take it as it was off the RN 136.00 which was also a PPZ. It was also located at a swing high.

Price was heading into RN 135 so I placed a sell stop 10 pips below the low of the PB at 134.86.

It may turn into a winner yet, but next time, I'll wait for a more pronounced PB!

While I'm waiting, I've got some GBPs burning a hole in my PayPal account, and they're looking good against the USD right now.

A good time to buy a month's membership of the PF perhaps?

(DANG! There's a BUOB on the GBP/USD. Maybe I should wait!)

(edit - It's at a swing high...I should buy now!!)

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  • #46,385
  • Edited 7:41pm Oct 19, 2009 7:04pm | Edited 7:41pm
I took a 1R loss on the AJ as well and I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts based on the discussion so far.

I think it feels terrible to take a loss when you think you're the only one who did it. And of course, as people have mentioned, forums naturally create a phenomenon whereby you see more people post winners than losers and so you can get the view that everyone else is making money and you're the bozo striking out.

The lesson, if that's the way you're thinking, is not to focus on what anyone else is doing but to focus on yourself. It can seem like everyone is making easy pips. That's not usually the case, and even if it is, they were all once at the stage you're at now. This thought helps me a lot.

I also try and stay accountable by keeping a log of every trade on PF. It stops me from deluding myself about my trading. I can't pretend. And then the light shines on my weaknesses as a trader which is the first step to eliminating them.

I learnt a lot from this setup. I am really beginning to consider bar size, extra pickiness for counter trend setups etc etc. I'd also suggest thinking of whether you'd take 100 of these setups and hope to make money. Because the next time something like this comes along it may make money and everyone will be happy. Same setup, but different results. And a very different mood on the forum. So try and think of the big picture. Would a ton of these setups make you profitable? What about a ton of the GU outside bar on the 3rd June? Which setup would you take 100 times and hope to be profitable on? A lot depends on management and style, but I think it's a better way of thinking. Because no-one ever knows whether an individual trade will be profitable. If we had 100% certainty we'd bet the farm. But, when we get on top of this material, we can be certain that that 100 of the same setup will yield profits. That's what we call our edge.

Some people take to trading like a duck to water and are instantly profitable. Others work hard to get profitable, and go through frustration as they eliminate their weaknesses one by one. I'm in the second category. So every losing setup (and every winning one) is an opportunity to learn. And I'd rather learn now than when my account is much larger.

I just wanted to post some thoughts on what goes on after we take a loser. Sometimes we go on tilt and break our rules to 'make it back' (I've done this), sometimes we get angry and think 'price action sucks', sometimes we wonder what we did wrong. The 100% win rate is an illusion, and searching for it is futile. So our psychological reaction to our losers is important. If there's a lesson to learn we learn it. If not we try and let go of the experience so that we can move on to the next trade with a clear head.
  • #46,386
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:23pm Oct 19, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting TiaForex
I took a 1R loss on the AJ as well and I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts based on the discussion so far.

I think it feels terrible to take a loss when you think you're the only one who did it. And of course, as people have mentioned, forums naturally create a phenomenon whereby you see more people post winners than losers and so you can get the view that everyone else is making money and you're the bozo striking out.

The lesson, if that's the way you're thinking, is not to focus on what anyone else is doing but to focus on yourself. It...

What a great post !!

I have started a trading journal to help me with my pre-trade analysis and to obtain member feedback so that I can grow as a trader.

I could not agree more with the fact that every trade win or loss is an opportunity to learn and to work out our psychological demons.

Cheers,
Mikali
  • #46,387
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:41pm Oct 19, 2009 7:41pm
"Which setup would you take 100 times and hope to be profitable on?"

Well said. I have often thought of that as i don't wish to be in a stressful mood just because of my trading results. For me i will be concentrating on trending pairs on the daily. A good example is the pin on Gbp/Chf a while back. Nice pin with the trend. Since it was not a swing high many would not look at this. I took it however had my stop loss about the 50 fib on the pin trying on increase my lot size. I lost the trade the following day even though the pin never actually failed. In this case the trend made the difference even thought it was not a swing high.
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  • #46,388
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:42pm Oct 19, 2009 7:42pm
Quoting FX_Serg
Would you please give me some feedback regarding this trade?
I saw that daily BUOB was forming so I entered on H4 DBLHC. My SL is pretty far but then again I'm not playing even 10th of a lot.
The reason for entry is that EU has already tested 1.484 multiple times and according to PA I see that it's about to break the top and form a higher box.

I would appreciate your comments

Serg
Hi FX_Serg,

I placed a long trade on Sunday which triggered before Mondays New York close. The basis for the trade was the two bars which appeared last Thursday and Friday. These two bars created a two bar high formation and from what I understand this represents a trend continuation break-out (only valid after a trend has been identified). The fact that Mondays bar formed a BUOVB makes me think that the EUR is going up. Lets wait and see.

Cheers,
Mikali
  • #46,389
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:44pm Oct 19, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting TiaForex
I took a 1R loss on the AJ as well and I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts based on the discussion so far.

I think it feels terrible to take a loss when you think you're the only one who did it. And of course, as people have mentioned, forums naturally create a phenomenon whereby you see more people post winners than losers and so you can get the view that everyone else is making money and you're the bozo striking out.

The lesson, if that's the way you're thinking, is not to focus on what anyone else is doing but to focus on yourself. It...
very nice post Aaron. I think many from PF will find a lot to pull from Fijis recent talk on blame shifting.

If a trade fits your plan that you have proven it works, then you take the loss and move on. No one IMO should be risking more then 1% of their account on any trade until they have solid statistics to back it up. This will keep you in the game(on demo of course). If looking back on a trade you wouldn't take it 100 times over as per aarons example, then find out why and learn from that mistake. Shifting that blame elsewhere will cause it to happen over and over.

Nice post A

Mike
  • #46,390
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:51pm Oct 19, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting mbqb11
very nice post Aaron....
Well said! Only to one blame is yourself, assuming you didn't have a solid reason for placing the trade.
  • #46,391
  • Oct 19, 2009 8:45pm Oct 19, 2009 8:45pm
Quoting TiaForex
I think it feels terrible to take a loss when you think you're the only one who did it. And of course, as people have mentioned, forums naturally create a phenomenon whereby you see more people post winners than losers and so you can get the view that everyone else is making money and you're the bozo striking out.

The lesson, if that's the way you're thinking, is not to focus on what anyone else is doing but to focus on yourself. It can seem like everyone is making easy pips. That's not usually the case, and even if it is, they were all once at...
BOY IS THIS THE TRUTH.

i went thru the bozo thing for a long long time. here is the uc trade im way way up on as well as the eu and a couple others but i took a loss on the uj last night for around 20 pips.

that small a loss doesnt bother me. big ones bother me so i dont allow them to happen.
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  • #46,392
  • Oct 19, 2009 9:02pm Oct 19, 2009 9:02pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
I will pass on this setup, though an iffy location, given the strong ppz and size of the pin.

half month left to finish my session of 3 mth win in a raw. becoming picky really takes time
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  • #46,393
  • Oct 19, 2009 9:50pm Oct 19, 2009 9:50pm
Jim,

Thank you for the touch play charts, they are really opening my eyes to things I have over looked!
  • #46,394
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:25pm Oct 19, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting Bryan
If you...
I've been in it this long, what's a few more pips
well, if it's a losing trade & u know it, & yet u stay a bit longer, it will sting more
if it's a losing trade & u know it, then abandon the ship ASAP
  • #46,395
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:30pm Oct 19, 2009 10:30pm
Quoting TraderJay101
If placed with London charts, you would still be in too. With London taking the largest volume of FX trades, does anyone know if London time daily pins are any stronger than others?
i believe it does not matter that much if it's a London time daily PB or not.
big or high volume/momentum PA setups can occur at any time of day.

remember, "London-ers" trade prior, during & after London time, & they have office branches in US/North America & Asia who trade too. same thing goes for "North (& South) American-ers" & "Asia-ers". even Central banks trade outside of their respective timezones.
  • #46,396
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:38pm Oct 19, 2009 10:38pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I intend to do the same. If only there were more than 24 lousy hours in a day!
we need & want to trade better & profitably. but we more importantly need to sleep adequately. if we continually lack in sleep, we wont be able to focus on our daily chores, including trading.
  • #46,397
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:44pm Oct 19, 2009 10:44pm
Quoting dengzhi
I only saw a couple posts on the AUD/JPY pinbar loss....
decent setup at the top, plenty of room to run, it broke, and turned around and burned me for 1.5%.. ouch (i normally risk no more than 1%... but i was so confident in this trade that i risked 1.5)
of course the biggest con about the trade was against the trend.
....
here u go, u said it yourself, countertrend.
as have been said, the PB is relatively smaller compared to the immediate previous bar.
it pays to know the trend, & respect it. also pay attention to the strength of each currency.

for example, on Oct16., we had an iffy H4 PB on gbp$ & a BIG H4 BEOB (&/or DBHLC) on eur$ (Alpari, XTB etc; GMT + 2 brokers). which of the two do u think i countertrend-shorted?...... eur$? Wrong, i took the gbp$. WHY?? i KNEW eur$ is in an uptrend while gbp$ is much much weaker imo (compare their charts H4 & up). plus, at that time gbp$ has less traffic below current price compared to eur$. i knew that eur$ can get more buyers on any downmove sooner or later. TRUE enough, Sir james16 got in around 1.4850. eur$ is now, & again, knocking at 1.50.
  • #46,398
  • Edited 11:30pm Oct 19, 2009 10:44pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting saskgui
I took it however had my stop loss about the 50 fib on the pin trying on increase my lot size. I lost the trade the following day even though the pin never actually failed.
The problem here is that you are the only one looking at a fib line on a single bar.

These levels only work if there is a bunch of people with money that also care about the line - and, in this case, they dont. So the level you are putting your stop at pretty much means nothing to the market, and so it has no reason to respect your stop.

I like tighter stops, sometimes, if the situation is right and there is a decent reason to do it (wanting to reduce risk to a specific amount with a random stop isnt a good reason, that's what minilots were invented for). But most of the time I just go for a proper full bar stop and manage going forwards.

If you really have to try and get tighter stops, make them PA based. Drop down to the 4H or 1H and look for PA. See if there are any s/r levels that might work. Put it behind a round number. Chuck it behind yesterdays open/close on London or NY. Anything is better than an arbitary 'my stop is half the length of this bar' (which is what the 50% fib actually is, once you strip the mystical nonsense).

*edit* I actually liked your entry, btw. Pin off a PPZ with the trend and a decent distance to clear support... and it stopped exactly where we think it should have...

posting from the beach while checking the H4 charts. something seriously wrong with me
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #46,399
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:57pm Oct 19, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting joelcf
...
posting from the beach while checking the H4 charts. something seriously wrong with me
hey bro, post much bigger fonts as many are much older than us.
to affirm your thoughts, YES, something is seriously wrong with u ---u are damn enjoying life at this moment at the beach. i envy your trade office, lol
free WIFI too? damn...
just be sure to keep away from the sun's rays (or eat more tomatoes if u want to expose yourself to the rays often; tomatoes -- natural & non-stick sunblock).
  • #46,400
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:36pm Oct 19, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting james16
BOY IS THIS THE TRUTH.

i went thru the bozo thing for a long long time. here is the uc trade im way way up on as well as the eu and a couple others but i took a loss on the uj last night for around 20 pips.

that small a loss doesnt bother me. big ones bother me so i dont allow them to happen.
hi Jim, thanx for your insights.
your charts illustrate the problem i have with touch trades in general. in one chart you went short as price reached your PPZ and on the other you went long on the break! could you elaborate on what helped you decide on which direction to trade??e.g.why didnt you go short when price reached the PPZ on your us/yen chart?? i never know without some PA if price is going to bounce or break through!!?? i hope i have explained myself well enough??
thanx again
jon
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