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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #46,361
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:30pm Oct 19, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mikali

Basically, and this isn't a hard fact it can happen many ways....
Hi Mike,

So, if I understand you correctly you are suggesting that a small sized (in relation to the adjacent bars) PB on a Friday could indicate profit taking. That being the case, other then the size of the bar could there be any other forewarning clue that might determine if the PB is a valid set-up as apposed to profit taking i.e. volume for instance.

Cheers,

Mikali
  • #46,362
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:31pm Oct 19, 2009 3:31pm
Im watching the cable right now. Great BUOB on weekly timeframe and some nice confluence with trendline and fib numbers. Might play a breakout here
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  • #46,363
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:35pm Oct 19, 2009 3:35pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Anthony

When you have a pair in a huge downtrend, it takes a lot to reverse it....
Thanks Mike.

That helps alot.
  • #46,364
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:40pm Oct 19, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting NosferatuMan
Mike, if posible, I would like to have yout thoughts on this one.

A PB is forming on daily with a intersting nose size. Also on weekly we have a good BEOB.
I have also a 50.0 fib and RN 0.9100.

My question is: is this a good setup for a short? (in case we trigger both the BEOB and PB (around 0.9880).
I rectangle is a conflit area and the 0.9880 was also resistance and support in the past.

Please let me have your comments.
Hey Nos

That pinbar is at a major swinglow, so we want to see them at a swing high(bearish pins). Now it could be the tip off to the BEOB like you said. My opinion would be that to simply play the weekly beob, then a sloppy pin like that. If the BEOB breaks we could see 9000 more then likely and that is our first trouble area

Best
Mike
  • #46,365
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:42pm Oct 19, 2009 3:42pm
Quoting Mikali
Hi Mike,

So, if I understand you correctly you are suggesting that a small sized (in relation to the adjacent bars) PB on a Friday could indicate profit taking. That being the case, other then the size of the bar could there be any other forewarning clue that might determine if the PB is a valid set-up as apposed to profit taking i.e. volume for instance.

Cheers,

Mikali
Hey M

There is no true volume in FX market since it is not centralized so I would not go by any volume(futures to small in comparison to spot) and/or tick volume personally.

Size is what I use personally, others might play it and if there isn't a hard break like jaroo ditch out for a small loss(nothing wrong with this).

Best
Mike
  • #46,366
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:44pm Oct 19, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Nos

That pinbar is at a major swinglow, so we want to see them at a swing high(bearish pins). Now it could be the tip off to the BEOB like you said. My opinion would be that to simply play the weekly beob, then a sloppy pin like that. If the BEOB breaks we could see 9000 more then likely and that is our first trouble area

Best
Mike
Thank you.
Really appreciate it.
  • #46,367
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:49pm Oct 19, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey M

There is no true volume in FX market since it is not centralized so I would not go by any volume(futures to small in comparison to spot) and/or tick volume personally.

Size is what I use personally, others might play it and if there isn't a hard break like jaroo ditch out for a small loss(nothing wrong with this).

Best
Mike
Thanks for the clarification Mike.

I should have remembered Jaroo's methodology of a fast break on a PB (which was certainly absent on that AUDCHF PB). That approach alone would have surely limited my loss on the trade.

Cheers,

Mikali
  • #46,368
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:50pm Oct 19, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting Bryan
If you placed your stop 10 pips above the pin you're still in the trade...
That is, if huge drawdowns don't unnerve you.
I've been in it this long, what's a few more pips

If placed with London charts, you would still be in too. Wiith London taking the largest volume of FX trades, does anyone know if London time daily pins are any stronger than others?
  • #46,369
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:53pm Oct 19, 2009 3:53pm
I only saw a couple posts on the AUD/JPY pinbar loss. I know a lot more people in this thread took a loss on that trade. but hey no1 likes to brag about losses right? if that trade turned out to be a winner there would be 20 posts here about how it was such a perfect setup and it was an A trade.

personally i thought it was a setup in the A category too.. i think jarro gave it a A- too but he did not take it..

decent setup at the top, plenty of room to run, it broke, and turned around and burned me for 1.5%.. ouch (i normally risk no more than 1%... but i was so confident in this trade that i risked 1.5)
of course the biggest con about the trade was against the trend.

what can we learn from this trade?
1) never break your own rules (i risked more than 1%)
2) ? not sure what else..
if i saw this setup again i would probably take it.. jarroo said he would probably take it too..

if it failed again... i would seriously start losing confidence in trading PA or forex altogether.. maybe i would be better off dumping money in S&P500 and let it do its thing, heck its up what 21% YTD?.. and nasdaq up 38%.. but this is not a normal year.

mike,
did you take the AJ trade?

also curious to hear Jim's take on the AJ setup that failed. i mean he just took 2 trades that did not have as much room to run as AJ and they didn't look like A trades.. or at least didn't look as tempting as the AJ trade..

is it because his trades were with the trend that made it all that more likely to succeed even though the AJ setup looked nice?
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  • #46,370
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:57pm Oct 19, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting dengzhi
mike,
did you take the AJ trade?

also curious to hear Jim's take on the AJ setup that failed. i mean he just took 2 trades that did not have as much room to run as AJ and they didn't look like A trades.. or at least didn't look as tempting as the AJ trade..

is it because his trades were with the trend that made it all that more likely to succeed even though the AJ setup looked nice?

Hey D

My last few posts all about the same topic on bar size. And also this post as well
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=46197

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #46,371
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:07pm Oct 19, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting Mikali
PS. I know I'm new but if others can learn anything from my post it would definitely be the value in re-reading this thread multiple times. It seems that each time you read through it you gain new insights.

Cheers,

Mikali
Absolutely. And as you gain more experience and practise you will gain even more insight with a re-read.

Its funny . . . re-reading some of my earlier posts, I think to myself what was I thinking on that setup. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,372
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:15pm Oct 19, 2009 4:15pm
in regards to the a/j i have recently asked myself why try to get into trades after there has already been a great signal days or weeks beforehand. perhaps i feel sometimes like i have missed the move and i need revenge on the market by taking a small counter trend bar.
there have been several pairs that are in this exact same scenerio. Im just using aj as an example. I know it still looked alright but i feel as though there are better trades beforehand that we could all still be in so we dont get burned as much by these iffy ones.

I perhaps try and take a trade based on a small pin or something like that with minimal confluence and so many times i have been wrong and took a loss.

I feel as though, now i just try my best to wait for these golden opportunities to get into a solid trade with several supporting factors going against it. I ask myself, for example. Why would i want to go short on this a.j trade when i could still be long from a week or so ago from a good pa setup . I wouldve made alot more money with less risk and felt abit more confident.

I try my hardest just to sit and wait for another 1 of these opportunities to arise before i be stupid and take less than perfect setups

Im not picking on anyone here, its just something i have observed over the past few days where people want to take trades going the opposite direction when they could have been still in the trade from a few days or a week ago and up a stack of pips. I am the biggest culprit of being impatient and missing the boat but once i get in sync again with the markets im sure i will finally make a good trading decision

hope that makes sense lol
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  • #46,373
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:17pm Oct 19, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting dengzhi
I only saw a couple posts on the AUD/JPY pinbar loss. I know a lot more people in this thread took a loss on that trade. but hey no1 likes to brag about losses right? if that trade turned out to be a winner there would be 20 posts here about how it was such a perfect setup and it was an A trade.

personally i thought it was a setup in the A category too.. i think jarro gave it a A- too but he did not take it..

decent setup at the top, plenty of room to run, it broke, and turned around and burned me for 1.5%.. ouch (i normally risk no more than...
Hey dengzhi. Sorry I can't post charts right now, but look at the A/J Daily chart and look at the PBs since say Feb. There's some nice moves off thoses ( big size) PBs, even more so when the up trend was obvious. Now look at the size of the current failed PB after strong move up. As Mike says . .sizes does matter.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,374
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:20pm Oct 19, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting dengzhi
I only saw a couple posts on the AUD/JPY pinbar loss. I know a lot more people in this thread took a loss on that trade. but hey no1 likes to brag about losses right? if that trade turned out to be a winner there would be 20 posts here about how it was such a perfect setup and it was an A trade.

personally i thought it was a setup in the A category too.. i think jarro gave it a A- too but he did not take it..

decent setup at the top, plenty of room to run, it broke, and turned around and burned me for 1.5%.. ouch (i normally risk no more than...
GREAT POST!

#1) Mike passed on it, but it is hard to imagine more here passed on it. It wasn't that bad of a set-up. The pin isn't THAT small. Other than the huge BUB on Thursday, it was the largest bar of the week.

#2) Profit taking, and the strong up trend might (I stress this) MIGHT pass on this the next time. But looking back, this just is not that bad of a set-up.

#3) No one wins every trade. So I gladly will take the loss. The biggest problem with trading forums is for what ever stupid reason, everyone just wants to post their wins. I just remind myself that probably only 5 or 6 guys that post here regularly are probably even making money over the long run.

#4) I can understand the shaky confidence. I have worked hard for 2 years. I am very patient. I have learned more about myself than I ever thought I would. I have watched video after video and read every post on this thread. And I am still losing. I have so much motivation to learn to trade, but it isn't coming. This is by far the toughest thing I have ever done. It is because you can do everything right, and get burned for it, and you gotta just move on. And in anything else in life, if you f' up, you f' up, and you are in deep ____.
  • #46,375
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:24pm Oct 19, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting jarroo
Absolutely. And as you gain more experience and practise you will gain even more insight with a re-read.

Its funny . . . re-reading some of my earlier posts, I think to myself what was I thinking on that setup. lol

Hi jaroo,

I could not agree with you more!! I'm nearly finished my second go around and I don't know how many times I've said to myself "is this new information because I do not remember reading this". For this reason alone, the moment I begin my third re-read, I am going to create a word document that will contain charts and excerpts of member postings that I consider pertinent to the James16 methodology and I fully expect this will turn out to be my trading bible.

Cheers,
Mikali
  • #46,376
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:26pm Oct 19, 2009 4:26pm
Quoting Mikali
Hi jaroo,

I could not agree with you more!! I'm nearly finished my second go around and I don't know how many times I've said to myself "is this new information because I do not remember reading this". For this reason alone, the moment I begin my third re-read, I am going to create a word document that will contain charts and excerpts of member postings that I consider pertinent to the James16 methodology and I fully expect this will turn out to be my trading bible.

Cheers,
Mikali
I intend to do the same. If only there were more than 24 lousy hours in a day!
  • #46,377
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:31pm Oct 19, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I intend to do the same. If only there were more than 24 lousy hours in a day!
How very true....The one thing I noticed, was that there were hundreds of pages added to the thread from when I started the second re-read. Heaven knows how many more pages will be added to the thread by the time I start my third re-read....With the amount of information contained within this thread its well worth the effort.

Mikali
  • #46,378
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:32pm Oct 19, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I intend to do the same. If only there were more than 24 lousy hours in a day!
If it is of any interest to you, Cyrus compiled the posts of james, mike, jarroo, ryan, tia forex and some other that I don't remember.

You can search for the zip files on the "paper clip" in the top roght corner (select ignore images).
  • #46,379
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:41pm Oct 19, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting NosferatuMan
If it is of any interest to you, Cyrus compiled the posts of james, mike, jarroo, ryan, tia forex and some other that I don't remember.

You can search for the zip files on the "paper clip" in the top roght corner (select ignore images).
NosferatuMan,

Thanks for the heads up, I will certainly look for that document as it undoubtedly will be a great read.

I still think I will compile my own document as I honestly feel this will go a long way to help me retain the information.

Cheers,
Mikali
  • #46,380
  • Oct 19, 2009 6:01pm Oct 19, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting dengzhi
I only saw a couple posts on the AUD/JPY pinbar loss. I know a lot more people in this thread took a loss on that trade. but hey no1 likes to brag about losses right? if that trade turned out to be a winner there would be 20 posts here about how it was such a perfect setup and it was an A trade.

personally i thought it was a setup in the A category too.. i think jarro gave it a A- too but he did not take it..

decent setup at the top, plenty of room to run, it broke, and turned around and burned me for 1.5%.. ouch (i normally risk no more than...
Ure right more than few ppl took this trade and got burnt...i did... 3%.

Let me tell you my take on James16:
i have fooled with many indicator system. Scalps.And till date i am most succesfull with PA.

No i havent made enough money to be a full time of James16group but this has given me hope to be successful.But i know there is no 100% sucess rate .

I feel when i enter a trade james16 way the PA the odds are more in my favor than against but i know a bad Pin is always around a corner but like i said there is no all winning system. to Give you a clear picture in this journey after demo i am currently trading live micro account . In 3 months i have made 260$ trading 0.01 to 0.02 lots.

This bad trade cost me alot of hard work of my previous gains..And i was going thru that phase again where i am thinkin should i continue or not? I have taken twice full pin loss till date.

And after alot of thinkin i am puttin this trade behind and continue trading PA because never in my trading journey was i even able to stay breakeven.

So dont give up because there will be another PIN around the corner smiling at you.

By the way i broke one rule in this trade. Normally i do not trade on Sundays. I really dont believe the PA on friday is valid. From my months of testing and trying.
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