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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #46,341
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:29am Oct 19, 2009 11:29am
Quoting mbqb11
Makes sense cyrus, but for the way I trade, which is with price bars....
Heya Mike,

When I saw the bar, I immediately passed on it as well, (I saw it b4 the run up) cause it was too tiny wrt... well, just about everything.

Decent sized bars = confidence --> I've read it a few dozen times all over FF already. It's hit home.

Thank you for your reply though. I do appreciate you taking the time. Was just curious if this might be some sort of coincidence that a poodle type semi-pin worked out.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #46,342
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:32am Oct 19, 2009 11:32am
Quoting Cyrus
Heya Mike,

When I saw the bar, I immediately passed on it as well, (I saw it b4 the run up) cause it was too tiny wrt... well, just about everything.

Decent sized bars = confidence --> I've read it a few dozen times all over FF already. It's hit home.

Thank you for your reply though. I do appreciate you taking the time. Was just curious if this might be some sort of coincidence that a poodle type semi-pin worked out.
many many times small bars work out for the same reasons. At S/R ppz, round numbers etc. But to me the difference just comes down to trading and consistent trading.

Whatever and whichever way people choose to trade(there are many as seen in here alone), it all comes down to being consistent and discipline to trade it. Without those 2, we are dead in the water

Best
Mike
  • #46,343
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:32am Oct 19, 2009 11:32am
Quoting mbqb11
Jim you are finally moving in with the Jonas brothers? I thought that was all talk when you told me on the phone.
if i got 'it' correctly, the place has very nice amenities.
but the price tag range, for me, well.... ..even for a recession...
the price range is pretty wide, PA-wise.
  • #46,344
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:36am Oct 19, 2009 11:36am
Quoting supremeChaos
if i got 'it' correctly, the place has very nice amenities.
but the price tag range, for me, well.... ..even for a recession...
the price range is pretty wide, PA-wise.
I was just busting Jims you know what

gotta get mine in while I can
Attached Image
  • #46,345
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:51am Oct 19, 2009 11:51am
Quoting mbqb11
I was just busting Jims you know what
gotta get mine in while I can
  • #46,346
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:59am Oct 19, 2009 11:59am
Quoting mbqb11
I was just busting Jims you know what

gotta get mine in while I can
good thing i wasn't eating or drinking anything . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #46,347
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:24pm Oct 19, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I see one other poster took a loss on the Daily AJ Pin Bar. I took a loss as well.

The location was iffy, space was GREAT, bar was GREAT, there was MACD divergence.

Pin broke by about 18 pips and then turned back.

I woke up at my 5 am and saw I was about to get stopped out. I then remembered Mike's words about Fridays being profit taking days.

Must have just been a profit taking pin.

Do the seniors here disregard set-ups like this on Sunday evenings? A strong trend with a good bar in the opposite direction forming on Friday? Did any of...
I agree with Mike that the Bar size was way too small but the other qualities on the setup were good. Also your comments on profit taking Friday may have played a role as well.

I didn't take this one, but if I did, I would have had a small loss on this one. Countertrend trading without having BIG PPZs, BIG BARS and Strong confluenced support (Fibs, 50% ret., MAs, Divergence, etc.) can be a very tough way to trade. Even if all of these factors do line up, it still could end up being a failed trade. The power of the trend.

That being said, when many of these "A-ish" qualities present themselves on a given setup (like this one), I add another confirmation that's very important to me (as many of you know): the hard break that runs and never looks back. Or at least be able to move my stop loss to B/E quickly.

If another setup like this one (A/J) presented itself, would I take it? Probably. It's probably why I have more break even trades then losses, which are few.

So I guess my point from this ramble is that I am always trying to be more picky on counter trend trades and I always manage them tight. The setups with the trend are more easily managed. The added confluence of "with the trend" is a powerful confluence to have with any PA setup.

Notice that James16's recent S/R entry trades on the Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf
were both with the trend.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,348
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:34pm Oct 19, 2009 1:34pm
Quoting mbqb11
I was just busting Jims you know what

gotta get mine in while I can

WTF?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,349
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:37pm Oct 19, 2009 1:37pm


consider it busted.

what the heck was i thinking?

it was late.




Quoting mbqb11
I was just busting Jims you know what

gotta get mine in while I can
  • #46,350
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:52pm Oct 19, 2009 1:52pm
Hi everyone!
I've been a lurker for some time now, went through the ordinary "loser cycle" which includes trying all the indicators (and not seeing anything except them on the screen), blowing account 3 times (wasn't that funny for me but I guess that's what you get while searching for the real strategy), trying out signal services hoping for a holy grail, AND finally I came here. I think the final part of the journey is only the beginning for me and is the most pleasant of all my experiences.
I wanted to thank James and all the senior members and contributors that make this thread absolutely fantastic, friendly and the most of all - going. After reading through the posts, and watching James' videos I kinda started to realize that difficulty of FX might as well be overestimated. It is the psychology and MM that people tend to underestimate that get them (me including) in trouble.

Again, big thanks to all participants and I'm planning to become a contributor here as well.
  • #46,351
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:15pm Oct 19, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I see one other poster took a loss on the Daily AJ Pin Bar. I took a loss as well.

The location was iffy, space was GREAT, bar was GREAT, there was MACD divergence.

Pin broke by about 18 pips and then turned back.

I woke up at my 5 am and saw I was about to get stopped out. I then remembered Mike's words about Fridays being profit taking days.

Must have just been a profit taking pin.

Do the seniors here disregard set-ups like this on Sunday evenings? A strong trend with a good bar in the opposite direction forming on Friday? Did any of...

If you placed your stop 10 pips above the pin you're still in the trade...
That is, if huge drawdowns don't unnerve you.
I've been in it this long, what's a few more pips
  • #46,352
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:18pm Oct 19, 2009 2:18pm
Good Day,

I am a new poster to this thread but have been reading for some time now. Currently, I am on my 2nd read and will probably re-read this thread many more times. It is amazing how much new information you pick-up re-reading the thread.

I finally opened my first demo account this month after researching many different brokers. My first trade was yesterday (please refer to the attached chart) which was based on a AUDCHF Daily PB that I thought was in a good location albeit in some traffic. The PB itself was at a swing high with its nose at a round number 0.9400 but as it turned out, the PB failed and I took my first loss.

I would appreciate any and all feedback and advice on this trade where I went wrong, what I may have missed in my analysis etc.

Thanks in advance and Cheers,

Mikali
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46,353
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:29pm Oct 19, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Fxlan

If you zoom your chart out a bit they start to look a lot less intriguing then being zoomed in where they look much more significant. I am weary about small pinbars heavily against a trend like eur/aud created on a friday(a notorious profit taking day instead of a position establishing day). So eur/aud doesn't really look all that great with any real lack of confluence....

Just my views
Mike
Hi Mike,

Sorry to beat a dead horse with this one, but you mentioned a "real lack of confluence" with the eur/aud. Please correct my thinking if I'm wrong, or let me know what I'm missing. I see:

-Bullish Pin Bar
-RSI Divergence
-Off a Round # - 1.6200
-Price at a swing Low
-PPZ area - price tested this area back in April-July 2008
-Adding a +10 buffer on the buy gets us past a possible trouble area of previous bar lows (1.6264)

I agree the pin bar could/should have been bigger. But is that the only reason this trade failed, or am I completely mis-reading the chart?

Thanks,
Anthony
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  • #46,354
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:43pm Oct 19, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting AnthonyC
Hi Mike,

Sorry to beat a dead horse with this one, but you mentioned a "real lack of confluence" with the eur/aud....
Hey Anthony

When you have a pair in a huge downtrend, it takes a lot to reverse it. So size is VERY VERY much significant enough to not warrant a trade. Bar size in a a more consolidating market will work more then a small pin against a huge trend. In this case the only real confluence is some divergence. Bar size is very small, round number is not all that significant, and we have no support/resistance near term PPZ to base a trading decision on. This is essentially what I call trying to pick the bottom. Many times strong trending markets like this will have some profit taking, namely fridays. This leads to these small pins, that "look good", but have no real validity to them. When I see a small pin trying to reverse a huge trend like that, I think to myself. Is this little bar really it? A big bar at the end of a large running trend is like candy, but these small bars will simply destroy your account if not played right(ie fast break, move to b/e super quick).

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #46,355
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:45pm Oct 19, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting FX_Serg
Hi everyone!
I've been a lurker for some time now, went through the ordinary "loser cycle" which includes trying all the indicators (and not seeing anything except them on the screen), blowing account 3 times (wasn't that funny for me but I guess that's what you get while searching for the real strategy), trying out signal services hoping for a holy grail, AND finally I came here. I think the final part of the journey is only the beginning for me and is the most pleasant of all my experiences.
I wanted to thank James and all the senior members...
Welcome Serg, Trading really IS simple. Only we complicate things. Now simple doesn't mean easy, b/c we have to battle through mostly what are our inner demons. Just constantly remind yourself, how easy-going and simplistic Jim is as both a person and trader. Most of us repeat. What would James16 do here? You can't go wrong doing that

Welcome again
Mike
  • #46,356
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:47pm Oct 19, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting Mikali
Good Day,

I am a new poster to this thread but have been reading for some time now. Currently, I am on my 2nd read and will probably re-read this thread many more times. It is amazing how much new information you pick-up re-reading the thread....
Hey Mikali

This kind of is the same as the eur/aud I posted 2 posts above. Again to me personally(and again everyone can disagree I can only share my experiences), this is again a small pin in relation to this strong moves were having. You have it so closed to nailed here. If you just take this exact scenario and wait for a bar that smacks you in the face, instead of just a bar that meets the technical criteria to be a pinbar, there is nothing that can prevent you from making money consistently.

Best
Mike

(ps hope others follow your lead in reading this thread multiple times )
  • #46,357
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:48pm Oct 19, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting james16


consider it busted.

what the heck was i thinking?

it was late.
ya that was late, you stayed up longer then me
  • #46,358
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:05pm Oct 19, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mikali

This kind of is the same as the eur/aud I posted 2 posts above....
Hi Mike,

Thank you for the feedback!!

After reading your response to AnthonyC's EURAUD PB I couldn't help but notice the similarities to my AUDCHF PB. If you wouldn't mind, could you kindly elaborate on your comment about Fridays being a profit taking day vs position establishing days as I found this to be a very interesting insight into market behaviour.

Once again thanks for your assistance.

PS. I know I'm new but if others can learn anything from my post it would definitely be the value in re-reading this thread multiple times. It seems that each time you read through it you gain new insights.

Cheers,

Mikali
  • #46,359
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:12pm Oct 19, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting Mikali
Hi Mike,

Thank you for the feedback!!

After reading your response to...
Hey Mikali

Basically, and this isn't a hard fact it can happen many ways. Friday is notorious profit taking. By that I mean many people simply close their positions out for the weekend. They don't want to have risk out on the table so they close out and might look to re-enter on sunday/monday re-opening. So if people are long in a market. That means to close their position you must sell it. So these sells come in and can create a PB that you see. Now that doesn't mean I won't trade based off a fridays bar. But a small bar could be chalked up to this profit taking rather then a true selling in the market that would warrant me to want a trade.

Let me know if that makes sense

Mike
  • #46,360
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:30pm Oct 19, 2009 3:30pm
Mike, if posible, I would like to have yout thoughts on this one.

A PB is forming on daily with a intersting nose size. Also on weekly we have a good BEOB.
I have also a 50.0 fib and RN 0.9100.

My question is: is this a good setup for a short? (in case we trigger both the BEOB and PB (around 0.9880).
I rectangle is a conflit area and the 0.9880 was also resistance and support in the past.

Please let me have your comments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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