Trade Like a Robot make money Like a Bank
- #3
- Oct 18, 2009 9:51pm Oct 18, 2009 9:51pm
oops forgot the templates, see guys I am no computer programmer. 
Trade Like a Robot make money Like a Bank
- #8
- Oct 18, 2009 10:16pm Oct 18, 2009 10:16pm
Entry & Exits
As I more like to call purpose and reasons. I look for the purpose, and use reasons to make or break.
So what I am looking for
?
For Entry LONG;
I first need to be in LONG MODE. How to be in LONG MODE? In other words I look at the 4hr TF and see that the 5 EMA is completely past the 10 EMA and 20 EMA(must be passed both 10 EMA and 20 EMA, CLOSED CONFIRM). Now I currently look for LONGS. If the 5 EMA is passed the 10 EMA but not past the 20 EMA, no long or short entries. In other words the 5 EMA has to completely bypass the 20 EMA to be a valid LONG MODE. You may be asking what is the 10 EMA for? Well that will help determine if the market is ranging and moving sideways. Especially if the 5 EMA is sitting between the 10 EMA and 20 EMA.
For Entry SHORT;
I think from what is explained above you can easily know what SHORT MODE is. Yes the 5 EMA has to completely past and close confirmed through the 20 EMA. From this I will look for short entries.
Below is a pic to illustrate LONG; SHORT; and NOTHING. The red arrows indicate looking for LONGS or SHORTS, from this pic you can clearly see that we were looking for longs through out the whole week.
As I more like to call purpose and reasons. I look for the purpose, and use reasons to make or break.
So what I am looking for
?For Entry LONG;
I first need to be in LONG MODE. How to be in LONG MODE? In other words I look at the 4hr TF and see that the 5 EMA is completely past the 10 EMA and 20 EMA(must be passed both 10 EMA and 20 EMA, CLOSED CONFIRM). Now I currently look for LONGS. If the 5 EMA is passed the 10 EMA but not past the 20 EMA, no long or short entries. In other words the 5 EMA has to completely bypass the 20 EMA to be a valid LONG MODE. You may be asking what is the 10 EMA for? Well that will help determine if the market is ranging and moving sideways. Especially if the 5 EMA is sitting between the 10 EMA and 20 EMA.
For Entry SHORT;
I think from what is explained above you can easily know what SHORT MODE is. Yes the 5 EMA has to completely past and close confirmed through the 20 EMA. From this I will look for short entries.
Below is a pic to illustrate LONG; SHORT; and NOTHING. The red arrows indicate looking for LONGS or SHORTS, from this pic you can clearly see that we were looking for longs through out the whole week.
Trade Like a Robot make money Like a Bank
- #10
- Edited Oct 19, 2009 1:51am Oct 18, 2009 11:03pm | Edited Oct 19, 2009 1:51am
Now that we know when we are in LONG or SHORT MODE, now we flip to the 30 min TF, and this is where the fun begins.
In LONG MODE;
THE Musts!
(I don't know if Musts is a word, but it's sounds cool)
I am looking for the 3 EMA to be closed above the 20 EMA, the actual candle itself can close on the lines, but the 3 EMA line has to be above 20 EMA line. Does not have to be fresh cross of the two.
First! Whic is the most vital entry signal that I truly look for, this is a definite must. My only true entry signal. I need a close of through the '55' line of the RSI. It can come from the bottom, or bounce down from the top, but it must close at slant through the '55' line. This has to be instant with the most current, or sometimes most current two candles(which I call a connecting candle, I will explain later). This all can better be explained with a pic.
Next I look at my ADX, I look for two things, first priorty is how far below or above the 25 line are we, this will indicate strength of a trend. Although if it is below the 25 line, I will still sometimes take the entry. Next I look at the +DI, and see what direction it is going, if I am in LONG MODE then I have to have the green line above the red line to indicate positive direction. This, very much like the MACD(that I am going to explain below) are filters, not signals for valid entries.
Lastly the lovely MACD. This and the ADX are purely my filters for my trades, I do not use the MACD to take any signals, just like I don't with the ADX. Keep in mind my only signal taker in trading is the RSI. However with MACD it truly is my main filter. Like I mentioned before, please research what these indicators are and understand their meanings. For the MACD, we all know it is a lagging indicator. However with this method I want to trade with the momentum, not against it.
So with MACD, I am looking at the histogram and signal line, and where they came from. I take the last 15 candles, and visualize them. I see to myself the momentum of what direction has been favored recently. So first I look at the histogram, and see the strength of momentum. Must show that it is going bullish(looking for longs). Even if the histogram is below the 0 line, I will still use this for bullish confirmation if there is significant lose in Negative momentum. If the histogram shows very low activity, and seems to hover up and below the 0 line, but still very close to it, then I will probably void my chance of any trade, because this usually indicates range market. Anyways back to LONG MODE, after determining my the histogram favors my direction, I at look the signal line, and where it came from. If the signal line is falling, the most likely it will be a false signal(and I analyse the last 15 candles to justify this). If the signal line is shooting up(looking 15 candles back), then of course this confirms my Long entry, also if the signal line is up but dips a little and now sideways(looking 15 candles back) then I still long. Remember MACD is a lagging indicator.
So to recap on Long entry;
3 EMA above 20 EMA
RSI most clean break the '55' line.
ADX does not have too, but indicate strong trend above or below the 25 line; also looking for green to be above the red.
MACD Histogram paints a picture of history, and yes it can confirm + or - momentum. Signal line must be up, or sideways(but recently up) both looking 15 candles back.
Enter Long, 25 pip TP with 25 SL.
Below are pics that show valid entries, one is a fresh cross of the RSI, and the other is what I call a bounce of the RSI
In LONG MODE;
THE Musts!
(I don't know if Musts is a word, but it's sounds cool)
I am looking for the 3 EMA to be closed above the 20 EMA, the actual candle itself can close on the lines, but the 3 EMA line has to be above 20 EMA line. Does not have to be fresh cross of the two.
First! Whic is the most vital entry signal that I truly look for, this is a definite must. My only true entry signal. I need a close of through the '55' line of the RSI. It can come from the bottom, or bounce down from the top, but it must close at slant through the '55' line. This has to be instant with the most current, or sometimes most current two candles(which I call a connecting candle, I will explain later). This all can better be explained with a pic.
Next I look at my ADX, I look for two things, first priorty is how far below or above the 25 line are we, this will indicate strength of a trend. Although if it is below the 25 line, I will still sometimes take the entry. Next I look at the +DI, and see what direction it is going, if I am in LONG MODE then I have to have the green line above the red line to indicate positive direction. This, very much like the MACD(that I am going to explain below) are filters, not signals for valid entries.
Lastly the lovely MACD. This and the ADX are purely my filters for my trades, I do not use the MACD to take any signals, just like I don't with the ADX. Keep in mind my only signal taker in trading is the RSI. However with MACD it truly is my main filter. Like I mentioned before, please research what these indicators are and understand their meanings. For the MACD, we all know it is a lagging indicator. However with this method I want to trade with the momentum, not against it.
So with MACD, I am looking at the histogram and signal line, and where they came from. I take the last 15 candles, and visualize them. I see to myself the momentum of what direction has been favored recently. So first I look at the histogram, and see the strength of momentum. Must show that it is going bullish(looking for longs). Even if the histogram is below the 0 line, I will still use this for bullish confirmation if there is significant lose in Negative momentum. If the histogram shows very low activity, and seems to hover up and below the 0 line, but still very close to it, then I will probably void my chance of any trade, because this usually indicates range market. Anyways back to LONG MODE, after determining my the histogram favors my direction, I at look the signal line, and where it came from. If the signal line is falling, the most likely it will be a false signal(and I analyse the last 15 candles to justify this). If the signal line is shooting up(looking 15 candles back), then of course this confirms my Long entry, also if the signal line is up but dips a little and now sideways(looking 15 candles back) then I still long. Remember MACD is a lagging indicator. So to recap on Long entry;
3 EMA above 20 EMA
RSI most clean break the '55' line.
ADX does not have too, but indicate strong trend above or below the 25 line; also looking for green to be above the red.
MACD Histogram paints a picture of history, and yes it can confirm + or - momentum. Signal line must be up, or sideways(but recently up) both looking 15 candles back.
Enter Long, 25 pip TP with 25 SL.
Below are pics that show valid entries, one is a fresh cross of the RSI, and the other is what I call a bounce of the RSI
Trade Like a Robot make money Like a Bank
- #16
- Oct 19, 2009 12:12am Oct 19, 2009 12:12am
THE NEVERS!!!!!
This is where discipline is a key to this success. I call this my nevers! Well first of all for a trading plan to work, you must have your own limitations that are not intrepreted right on your monitor, actually it is YOU! Or me, or we! Whatever we call it, this stuff isn't written down, nor is it going to send out a bolt of non deadly lighting at you whenver you break the rules. Because we all know when we break our rules, who is the one to eat it the most? you/me/we!
With you, it can be many things, or few things, but with me it's quite simple, because I like simple.
First of all my TP is 25 pips, no trailing stop, too small of a TF to make that work. My stop loss is 25 pips. It hasn't changed, and it won't changed. Earlier I mentioned that I make 20 to 25 pips, here is why. I have seen the market reach 23 and even sometimes 24.8 pips before, and yes it has reversed down and stopped me out for a loss. That sucks!
However through thick and thin, I will never try and lose any pips that I have earned. So once my trade is active, and it hits 22 pips(which seems to happen all the time) I will manually put a fixed SL at +20 pips. From that point on the market will decide whether I can gracefully have +25 pips or simply just +20 pips. Either way I am happy, and I never lose out on a close TP. So far its about 73% hit the +25 pips and the rest finish out +20 pips.
Next is when do I trade, well when I am not at my full time job I try to trade as much as I can, but I will not trade until the EU Market has officially opened for the first of the week. I may miss out on some quick little valid signals, but I wait till the first intial EU open. From that point on I feel that the market will start to shape up of what is going to happen for the week. On the flip side I will not trade the last 18 hours of the market, and yes that includes entire last US Session.
I currently live in Arizona, so in otherwords(we are currently Pacific Time Zone, and we don't observe daylight savings which just complicates things even more) I start looking for trades here in Arizona after 11:00pm Sunday night, and stop taking trades Friday around 3:00 to 4:00 am.
Holidays, these are very tricky, and are very prone to throwing the market for a spin. So for me to generate any sort of valid entry, I wait for a two complete cycles before I do anything. Remember I need momentum to make good trades. So if there is a Bank Holiday on Monday, I will wait till the EU session has gone through two full opens and closes, then I will start looking for trades. Probably till Wednesday night.
I never close my trade out, even if it is sitting on -20 pips. This is where your emotions have to be strong. I never close out my trade for 7 or 13 or 17 + pips, because I believe with all things confirming that it will hit its TP of 20 to 25. Once I am in a trade, I consider it history, and it's accounted for. I do not try and adjust my lot size while I am trading.
There are going to be more thing in the future to discuss about what I do and not do, and to what currency pair. I do not know if this will work on other pairs, because I have not tested it on them. If you look back up the list of things that I said I will never do, because of the past all of those 'I nevers' have cost me money.
I know this system isn't perfect, and wouldn't expect anyone to take this method and roll 100%, but for me and what I have experienced with it has shown a high success rate of trades. Like I said before knowing when to be ready and sitting right there 100% focused to take the trades at the given time, is truly the toughest challenge.
Ok now that I have explained it, please feel free to post whatever questions you may have, and I wouldn't mind answering them for you.
This is where discipline is a key to this success. I call this my nevers! Well first of all for a trading plan to work, you must have your own limitations that are not intrepreted right on your monitor, actually it is YOU! Or me, or we! Whatever we call it, this stuff isn't written down, nor is it going to send out a bolt of non deadly lighting at you whenver you break the rules. Because we all know when we break our rules, who is the one to eat it the most? you/me/we!
With you, it can be many things, or few things, but with me it's quite simple, because I like simple.
First of all my TP is 25 pips, no trailing stop, too small of a TF to make that work. My stop loss is 25 pips. It hasn't changed, and it won't changed. Earlier I mentioned that I make 20 to 25 pips, here is why. I have seen the market reach 23 and even sometimes 24.8 pips before, and yes it has reversed down and stopped me out for a loss. That sucks!
However through thick and thin, I will never try and lose any pips that I have earned. So once my trade is active, and it hits 22 pips(which seems to happen all the time) I will manually put a fixed SL at +20 pips. From that point on the market will decide whether I can gracefully have +25 pips or simply just +20 pips. Either way I am happy, and I never lose out on a close TP. So far its about 73% hit the +25 pips and the rest finish out +20 pips. Next is when do I trade, well when I am not at my full time job I try to trade as much as I can, but I will not trade until the EU Market has officially opened for the first of the week. I may miss out on some quick little valid signals, but I wait till the first intial EU open. From that point on I feel that the market will start to shape up of what is going to happen for the week. On the flip side I will not trade the last 18 hours of the market, and yes that includes entire last US Session.
I currently live in Arizona, so in otherwords(we are currently Pacific Time Zone, and we don't observe daylight savings which just complicates things even more) I start looking for trades here in Arizona after 11:00pm Sunday night, and stop taking trades Friday around 3:00 to 4:00 am.
Holidays, these are very tricky, and are very prone to throwing the market for a spin. So for me to generate any sort of valid entry, I wait for a two complete cycles before I do anything. Remember I need momentum to make good trades. So if there is a Bank Holiday on Monday, I will wait till the EU session has gone through two full opens and closes, then I will start looking for trades. Probably till Wednesday night.
I never close my trade out, even if it is sitting on -20 pips. This is where your emotions have to be strong. I never close out my trade for 7 or 13 or 17 + pips, because I believe with all things confirming that it will hit its TP of 20 to 25. Once I am in a trade, I consider it history, and it's accounted for. I do not try and adjust my lot size while I am trading.
There are going to be more thing in the future to discuss about what I do and not do, and to what currency pair. I do not know if this will work on other pairs, because I have not tested it on them. If you look back up the list of things that I said I will never do, because of the past all of those 'I nevers' have cost me money.
I know this system isn't perfect, and wouldn't expect anyone to take this method and roll 100%, but for me and what I have experienced with it has shown a high success rate of trades. Like I said before knowing when to be ready and sitting right there 100% focused to take the trades at the given time, is truly the toughest challenge.
Ok now that I have explained it, please feel free to post whatever questions you may have, and I wouldn't mind answering them for you.
Trade Like a Robot make money Like a Bank
- #20
- Oct 19, 2009 3:29am Oct 19, 2009 3:29am
On euro I need to have a close above the 10ema and 20ema for me to look for longs, possible retrace then a bounce up. On the cable I am looking for longs,
On the swissy I need a close below the 10ema and 20 ema, for me to
look for shorts
Yen is trending into the ranging channel, so if there is a close in between the 10ema and 20 ema, I am going to ignore any possible signals.
Trade Like a Robot make money Like a Bank