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Silent Service Method

  • #5,461
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:41am Oct 16, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Eduardo
Getting down to business then is anyone else watching 1.07 on usdcad for a possible sell?
No problem. I've fallen into the trap of watching my stock "investments" sink without proper risk control and have vowed (like an alcoholic promising never to drink again) to never let my stock risk get out of hand. To that end I now have predetermined stop-losses prior to entering a stock trade (which i should have always had, but got sloppy) and then moving those stops to break-even when appropriate (just like a forex trade).

In anycase - the USD/Cad i am actually looking at with a bullish eye - seeing that if we close around these levels for the week, we'll get a nice looking weekly pinbar @ the 1.04 level. But, like you, i see the big resistance up ahead at 1.07... I'll be watching that one closely.
  • #5,462
  • Oct 16, 2009 11:25am Oct 16, 2009 11:25am
Yen pair daily's sure do seem to be shaping up nicely. Too bad it's Friday.
  • #5,463
  • Oct 16, 2009 12:34pm Oct 16, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting clockwork71
,,,

So turn off all the crap that is so readily available. If you listen to these people, you are going to lose a lot of money.
,,,

Clockwork
You are right as hell, as example i can tell that i been trying follow IFR Markets trades, they are mostly with no success, just 50/50. Would i listen myself, i could escape from losses.
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #5,464
  • Oct 16, 2009 2:30pm Oct 16, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting el_duende
With regards to USD/CAD I have daily S/R at 1.06 and weekly S/R at 1.08, I am looking for short entires still on this pair.

Indeed Aud is the strongest currency at the moment, up 4% this month alone against other currencies in general. Have a look at this useful currency meter, it shows the comparative strength between the major currencies over various time periods.

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/curren...th_calculator/
Nice one, muchas gracias mi pequeno amigo
  • #5,465
  • Oct 16, 2009 2:37pm Oct 16, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting InfinitySL
No problem. I've fallen into the trap of watching my stock "investments" sink without proper risk control and have vowed (like an alcoholic promising never to drink again) to never let my stock risk get out of hand. To that end I now have predetermined stop-losses prior to entering a stock trade (which i should have always had, but got sloppy) and then moving those stops to break-even when appropriate (just like a forex trade).

In anycase - the USD/Cad i am actually looking at with a bullish eye - seeing that if we close around these levels...
Well I won't be calling the end of that downtrend in a hurry! It's looking a bit like a rollercoaster without brakes at the moment.
  • #5,466
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:34pm Oct 16, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting stefx
NZDJPY - Day #18

Closed the trade with nice profits because I don't like this pinish bar. It's not the shape of the bar itself, it's the location you can see in the weekly chart. I said if having a good reason I take off the trade without a doubt, because a pinbar at this location would put the pair on my watchlist for shorts. A bit too much of traffic below for my taste but it would be on the list though. Having a potential short setup is a reason for me not being long anymore.

I think this is something meant by chris saying the exits will determine...
Correct, that's exactly what I mean. Think of the following question as being a trinary question: (Ok, binary is a word....and I am at a loss for "three choices". lol)

The question is: "What's my outlook on this pair?"

A) Long
B) Short
C) Unclear.

If the answer is "C", then don't bother. The other two are obvious.

If you are already in a trade and the answer is "C", then sit tight. (Oddly enough, the same thing you do if you are looking for a trade.)

If you are long, and the answer is "B", then either tighten stops, or get out.

If you are short, and the answer is "A", then either tighten stops or get out.

Needless to say....if the answer is the same as your position.....let it run. Period. End of story.

That little piece of advice is the "holy grail".
  • #5,467
  • Oct 16, 2009 4:24pm Oct 16, 2009 4:24pm
Update on AEP trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aep2.png Size: 118 KB
  • #5,468
  • Oct 17, 2009 11:00pm Oct 17, 2009 11:00pm
This is Mattel, it's on my watchlist. I was going to do a long dialogue about it, but thought instead to just post the charts, and see what everyone thinks.

I've already written my analysis, and will cut and paste it later.


Daily
http://i38.tinypic.com/2m5frya.png

zoomed out daily
http://i36.tinypic.com/wmdxzn.png

Weekly
http://i35.tinypic.com/6s57jq.png
  • #5,469
  • Oct 17, 2009 11:59pm Oct 17, 2009 11:59pm
Quoting InfinitySL
No problem. I've fallen into the trap of watching my stock "investments" sink without proper risk control and have vowed (like an alcoholic promising never to drink again) to never let my stock risk get out of hand. To that end I now have predetermined stop-losses prior to entering a stock trade (which i should have always had, but got sloppy) and then moving those stops to break-even when appropriate (just like a forex trade).

In anycase - the USD/Cad i am actually looking at with a bullish eye - seeing that if we close around these levels...
The Stop loss is one of the most important aspects of forex trading. I have been taught to place them as soon as I place the trade. Voila. No sloppiness.
  • #5,470
  • Oct 18, 2009 11:52am Oct 18, 2009 11:52am
Quoting capitalx
The Stop loss is one of the most important aspects of forex trading. I have been taught to place them as soon as I place the trade. Voila. No sloppiness.
True, and you also have to think: If you cannot place a stop loss and be comfortable with it, why in the hell are you putting on the trade in the first place?
  • #5,471
  • Oct 18, 2009 1:21pm Oct 18, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting clockwork71
If you cannot place a stop loss and be comfortable with it, why in the hell are you putting on the trade in the first place?
That is a great point! Very True. I have made this problem several times before!
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #5,472
  • Oct 18, 2009 3:05pm Oct 18, 2009 3:05pm

Truth be told, my stock filters dredged up a lot more charts than usual on Friday, and I think there's an inverse relationship between quality and quantity. lol.

So...Nobody likes the Mattel bait?

I love that pinbar, and the volume speaks, well.... volumes. Throw in the MACD for decision support, and I want it so bad I can taste it..

But........

The first thing that throws me off is the gap. I don't want to see it open lower and find support on the gap. Next up Weekly SR. These lines can be fudged a little to give more of a "piercing" pin bar, but that's cheating, and the government hates competition. I would really rather see it through that line or at least nearer to it. Funny thing about that gap, you can see another similar one back around the middle of last July, another reason to pause. And then there's the MACD, sure it's in decline, and I like that, but the histogram TL is clearly broken to the upside, and has yet to even start to turn.

What do I want to see? I would love to see it open below the gap and head south. That way I have the gap as resistance in my favor, Macd might give me the turn I want were that to happen,and I could happily trade my way down to the next SR.

So...I should know by Tuesday.

  • #5,473
  • Oct 18, 2009 3:07pm Oct 18, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting Low
[left]Truth be told, my stock filters dredged up a lot more charts than usual on Friday, and I think there's an inverse relationship between quality and quantity. lol.

So...Nobody likes the Mattel bait?

I love that pinbar, and the volume speaks, well.... volumes. Throw in the MACD for decision support, and I want it so bad I can taste it..

But........

The first thing that throws me off is the gap. I don't want to see it open lower and find support on the gap. Next up Weekly SR. These lines can be fudged a little to give more of a "piercing"...
You're basically on the hunt for an island reversal then

I don't trade stocks, so no Mattel for me, but i hope you get your setup!
  • #5,474
  • Oct 18, 2009 3:23pm Oct 18, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting Low
[left]Truth be told, my stock filters dredged up a lot more charts than usual on Friday, and I think there's an inverse relationship between quality and quantity. lol.

So...Nobody likes the Mattel bait?

I love that pinbar, and the volume speaks, well.... volumes. Throw in the MACD for decision support, and I want it so bad I can taste it..

But........

The first thing that throws me off is the gap. I don't want to see it open lower and find support on the gap. Next up Weekly SR. These lines can be fudged a little to give more of a "piercing"...
Well put. My big issue is the gap as well.....but we will see what it does. Like you said, Tuesday we should know one way or the other.
  • #5,475
  • Oct 18, 2009 3:50pm Oct 18, 2009 3:50pm
Like I said, quality vs. quantity. I was amazed how many charts I went through, only to learn, there's not much worth looking at.

I might make a better stock trader just because it bores me to tears.lol.
  • #5,476
  • Oct 18, 2009 10:01pm Oct 18, 2009 10:01pm
Here are two weekly trades I took:

USD/CAD - Long:
http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...cad-weekly.gif
I would have liked to see the weekly pin bar close above 1.04, but to me it was above where I had draw the S/R zone in the past. We'll see where this one goes.

The 2nd trade I took Late last week (i.e. as close to the "close" of the weekly bar as I could) was on the USD/NOK long:
http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...ng1/usdnok.gif
I like the pin bar right around the 5.5 round number level (where I had previously drawn S/R). The tail went thru 5.5, but closed closer to 5.6 level. You can ignore the Fibo, wasn't part of my thinking...

Both of these are right around where i entered.

Any comments on the trades greatly appreciated. I also have a question for how you guys enter weekly pins. Do you take them Friday afternoon (i.e. around 4 or 4:30pm, or do you wait til Sunday evening? Although I hate paying the rollover over the weekend, I find that my spreads are wider on Sunday afternoon, so at the end of the day, it could be a wash.

Anyway, comments on the trades & comments about how you play weekly pins are both appreciated.
  • #5,477
  • Oct 18, 2009 11:36pm Oct 18, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Here are two weekly trades I took:

USD/CAD - Long:
http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...cad-weekly.gif
I would have liked to see the weekly pin bar close above 1.04, but to me it was above where I had draw the S/R zone in the past....

One thing I find interesting....both the NOK and the CAD are backed by oil. Hmmmm.....

I like the NOK better myself, but am watching the CAD too thought.

Chris
  • #5,478
  • Oct 18, 2009 11:40pm Oct 18, 2009 11:40pm
What spread are you paying on usdnok then?

I wouldn't be going long usdcad any time soon due to the trend, it's trying to tell you something, but I would never knock anyone else's trades and I wish you luck.
  • #5,479
  • Oct 19, 2009 12:15am Oct 19, 2009 12:15am
How to play weekly pins?

Ignore it for a week.
  • #5,480
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:37am Oct 19, 2009 1:37am
Quoting clockwork71
The question is: "What's my outlook on this pair?"

A) Long
B) Short
C) Unclear.

If the answer is "C", then don't bother. The other two are obvious.

If you are already in a trade and the answer is "C", then sit tight. (Oddly enough, the same thing you do if you are looking for a trade.)

If you are long, and the answer is "B", then either tighten stops, or get out.

If you are short, and the answer is "A", then either tighten stops or get out.

Needless to say....if the answer is the same as your position.....let it run. Period. End...
Something for me to always keep in mind. Thanks CW!

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