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Silent Service Method

  • #5,441
  • Oct 15, 2009 11:21am Oct 15, 2009 11:21am
Quoting clockwork71
Small trade I took earlier.....got out for quick profit. Due to not being able to babysit this trade (it's the first time I have ever traded this contract) I took a quick profit, and I am off to the doctor's for a check up. See you all this afternoon. Only about $84 after commission, but hell - it took all of about 15 minutes. (I was in the shower after I placed this trade.....)
Hey CW: Just curious, why get out so quickly here? Based on your teachings you should let things ride and hide behind s/r levels; just curious why any different here? thanks man, good trade!
  • #5,442
  • Oct 15, 2009 11:32am Oct 15, 2009 11:32am
as requested, the file with chris post in the thread

please keep in mind that this is just for quick reference, I would reccomend to read all the thread anyway since it contains a lot of great contributions from various members

hosted offshore cause the doc is quite heavy (naaaahh, the real reason is that I hope to make a buttload of cash with megaupload), full of images

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=5YZC8EMN

edit: please also take note that the file doesn't include blog material (mainly because I have not checked it out)
  • #5,443
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:00pm Oct 15, 2009 12:00pm
AUDCAD - Day #57

Once again my stop was missed by 13 pips after the big downward move was stopped by the strong PPZ which formed out at the blue line and was more than confirmed once again if able to turn around this move. I found that if trading with the trend such areas have the potential to turn the price back into direction of the trend.

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NZDJPY - Day #17

Until the bars from Oct. 12 - 14 I had no more idea what this trade is about to do. The reason why I'm still in this trade is that I detach from the money, put the trade on and take it off for GOOD reasons. Having no idea is NOT A REASON.

Moved the stop to BE although there's no area to hide or anything else. It's part of my mindset that I'll not accept that a trade at 200 pips floating profit turns into a loss. On a negative swap I would be a bit above BE so that the next days I've to pay will be included if the trade does not work out.

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Good trading, Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,444
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:06pm Oct 15, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting ttteee
as requested, the file with chris post in the thread
Thanks ttteee, really awesome.
  • #5,445
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:23pm Oct 15, 2009 12:23pm
ste, your audcad is just looking insane

look at the 4h chart, you can see where the sl is but the entry is so below that can't even be seen !
  • #5,446
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:23pm Oct 15, 2009 12:23pm
Hi.

I think this or next weekend I'll release the new verision of my volume calculator together with a set of scripts for order entry. Currently I'm doing a bit of testing. The system will show up like the screenshot. You can place an S/L and optional open price and T/P. The indi will calculate and display several values. The configured order can then be placed by a simple double click on a buy or a sell script.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I'll leave a note when it's done.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,447
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:48pm Oct 15, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting stefx
Hi.

I think this or next weekend I'll release the new verision of my volume calculator together with a set of scripts for order entry. Currently I'm doing a bit of testing. The system will show up like the screenshot. You can place an S/L and optional open price and T/P. The indi will calculate and display several values. The configured order can then be placed by a simple double click on a buy or a sell script.

Attachment

I'll leave a note when it's done.
Your order system / pip calculator / etc that was appearing in the upper right corner of your screenshots looks very interesting . Would love to play around with it (that is if you don't mind sharing) as I have something similar ii've done for excel, but it's super clunky and yours looks quite elegant incorporated into MT4...

Congrats on the trades - I played AUD/CAD to the short side for a quick one, but clearly the trend is still working well for you there.
  • #5,448
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:02pm Oct 15, 2009 1:02pm
Hello everybody, just back from a long holiday and checking in. Since I came back I've been a bit up and down, need a while to settle back down.

One thing that I have noticed is that I have gone back to opening far too many trades and closing out the winners too early.

I've given it a lot of thought and I've come up with an idea for a way to think about things that may help.

If I buy shares in a company I normally buy something fairly reliable that I am 99% confident won't ever go out of business (I know but you know what I mean).

For some reason, probably because my money is already invested and I can't "lose" money unless I sell the shares lower than I bought them or the company goes bust, I don't feel the urge to check the performance every day and hang on every up and down move.

I think I've worked out that for me, if I a pair is trending really strongly and I buy on a dip with a, say, 200 pip stop loss I should be able to feel the same way about that trade (or investment?) as I do about the "buy and hold" share trade because it will take at least a few days to do anything outstanding and possibly run for weeks (as Stef has proved!).

I'm kind of thinking out loud a little here but I'm just trying to get the pyschology aspect of this down in my head. I buy AusUsd at an area, it goes up, I trail the stop just below the trendline (or behind the best support level) and when the trend is over I cash in my investment. It makes trading feel like buy and hold! Worst case scenario -200 pips, best case scenario *fill in your own figure here*.

Is this way of thinking going to help me? I value all of your opinions and would love to get some feedback (or mental backup!) for what I just thought out.
  • #5,449
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:05pm Oct 15, 2009 1:05pm
AEP triggered.
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  • #5,450
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:08pm Oct 15, 2009 1:08pm
Quoting el_duende
Another opportunity is arising on AUD/JPY. Price has just closed above key weekly S/R level at 82. Depending on price action we may get a long entry with a target around 86 (next daily S/R level). One to watch me thinks to see what happens.
Not the best day trading for me USD/CAD reversed after going into small profit and and gave me a small loss hitting my stop loss. I also didnt enter the AUD/JPY trade I mentioned which would have been good 100 pip profit lol

Tomorrow another trading day hehe
  • #5,451
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:10pm Oct 15, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting Eduardo
Hello everybody, just back from a long holiday and checking in. Since I came back I've been a bit up and down, need a while to settle back down.

One thing that I have noticed is that I have gone back to opening far too many trades and closing out the winners too early.

I've given it a lot of thought and I've come up with an idea for a way to think about things that may help.

If I buy shares in a company I normally buy something fairly reliable that I am 99% confident won't ever go out of business (I know but you know what I mean).

For some...
In a nutshell: The trend is your friend.

This is true though, you cannot deny it. For about 4 years, until the meltdown.....would you have rather bought EUR/USD, or sold it? And when I say that - I mean pretty much anywhere.

I know what you mean by a company that isn't going under. I would feel very comfortable holding KO (Coca-Cola) shares for a lengthy time.....so I hear ya on that one.

You may have just found out you are a trend trader, or at least only comfortable going with the trend. There is nothing wrong with that at all.

Chris
  • #5,452
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:26pm Oct 15, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting clockwork71
In a nutshell: The trend is your friend.
Lol, thanks! No really, thanks for the reply. It makes a lot of sense to me to just follow the trends. It seems Aud is really trending so strongly, even against the euro due to the big differential in interest rates. Holding any pair featuring Aud long term makes good sense just for the swap!

Do you think that approaching and thinking about my trades in this way would be beneficial? I can buy and hold shares and make money long term because I just buy them and hold on to them until they make me a profit or tank. If I only follow the best trends for the best reasons (interest rate differentials for the most part) then I should be able to think of it in exactly the same way with the only possible spanner in the works being if the dip I try to buy turns out to dip a bit lower than expected and I don't catch the trend at the right time (which can always be rectified by getting in again at a better time later).

I've been skimming through the thread again, what a fantastic resource for a new trader to stumble upon. It certainly helped clarify a few things for me.
  • #5,453
  • Edited 2:09pm Oct 15, 2009 1:59pm | Edited 2:09pm
just keep in mind that we're not investing, but speculating
  • #5,454
  • Oct 15, 2009 2:26pm Oct 15, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting stefx
Hi.

I think this or next weekend I'll release the new verision of my volume calculator together with a set of scripts for order entry. Currently I'm doing a bit of testing. The system will show up like the screenshot. You can place an S/L and optional open price and T/P. The indi will calculate and display several values. The configured order can then be placed by a simple double click on a buy or a sell script.
I'll leave a note when it's done.
Cool. I'll be very interested since I'll soon open an Alpari account and start trading MT4 live.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,455
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:52pm Oct 15, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting Eduardo
One thing that I have noticed is that I have gone back to opening far too many trades and closing out the winners too early.
Everyone is guilty of that sin at one point or another in their life. Sounds like you might be taking B- or C+ type setups or coming up with reasons to enter trades when they may not be the best.

Quote

For some reason, probably because my money is already invested and I can't "lose" money unless I sell the shares lower than I bought them or the company goes bust, I don't feel the urge to check the performance every day and hang on every up and down move.
This to me just sounds like a difference in the way that you look at things, not necessarily in the way that the two markets actually operate. Whether or not you take the loss by selling, you still have the loss. Those people who owned 100 shares of Bank of America at the end of 2007 thought they had a very safe $4,000 investment, watched it disintegrate to a $300 investment in early march 2009, and then rode it back up to an $1,800 investment. Wouldn't they have been better off with (as you suggest) a 200pip stop-loss (lets call that $2/share) from the start, cashed out their $3800 and then reinvested in better ideas (or cash). Sure, if they are still holding at $1800, they haven't taken an accounting loss, but they have tied up their money for 2yrs in a bad investment that they couldn't use to buy other things (or use for margin in a forex account).

People who bot Lehman, Bear, AIG, or even GE -- All seemingly solid American companies -- are still counting their losses.

To me, there can be no fundamental difference in how you view your stock portfolio and how you view your forex portfolio. In the forex portfolio you're going long one country & short another. It's an investment/speculation no matter how you slice it. With a stock you're betting the CEO won't sell the company's crown jewel for a pittance or make terrible business decisions, and with a forex purchase, you're betting the Central Bank of ____ won't turn into the Central Bank of Zimbabwe or the government won't make silly economic decisions or whatever the myriad of things that affect the price of money!

By saying that you need risk control on one thing (forex) but not the other (stocks) seems a bit strange to me. I "get" why you think that, but I think you should reevaluate why you think what you do.

At the end of the day, it's all dollars (or whatever your home currency is) and how you're using them. There's an opportunity cost to hanging onto bad investments.

One final thought on what you said. Just because you have a forex position, why do you feel the need to check it all the time versus a stock position? My gut tells me it's because the volatility on your Forex position is greater than the volatility on your stock position, which would argue simply for a smaller forex lot size. I find that lowering my positions sizes helps me relax more and let a position run a bit. Yes, the gains are smaller, but so are the losses!

Anyway, just my meaningless opinion...
  • #5,456
  • Oct 15, 2009 5:34pm Oct 15, 2009 5:34pm
Quoting Eduardo
Lol, thanks! No really, thanks for the reply. It makes a lot of sense to me to just follow the trends. It seems Aud is really trending so strongly, even against the euro due to the big differential in interest rates. Holding any pair featuring Aud long term makes good sense just for the swap!

Do you think that approaching and thinking about my trades in this way would be beneficial? I can buy and hold shares and make money long term because I just buy them and hold on to them until they make me a profit or tank. If I only follow the best trends...
For some people, this is the key. If you buy AUD/USD as it is going up, it's still possible to get stopped out. But on an uptrend, that only means that your timing is off. You can still be correct over time.....and many traders simply do only this.

If it's your comfort, it's your comfort. I am a big advocate of comfort and ease of trading........it leads to profits.
  • #5,457
  • Oct 15, 2009 5:38pm Oct 15, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Everyone is guilty of that sin at one point or another in their life....
Your opinion isn't meaningless. In fact - there's a ton of food for thought in this post. I think that people have a little more trouble in forex because of the leverage. If you think about how small the moves are that we are making money off of, it's ridiculous. Stocks can move 10% in a day on decent or bad news. With a currency pair, that would be a disaster.
  • #5,458
  • Oct 16, 2009 9:51am Oct 16, 2009 9:51am
Thanks Chris and Infinity, those few posts have helped me snap out of it a little and my head is clearer.

Getting down to business then is anyone else watching 1.07 on usdcad for a possible sell?

I'm liking the look of Aud against more or or less anything at the moment but just got to watch and wait. Nzd too, another interest rate thing. I wonder if that's why the spread is so high on these pairs?
  • #5,459
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:34am Oct 16, 2009 10:34am
NZDJPY - Day #18

Closed the trade with nice profits because I don't like this pinish bar. It's not the shape of the bar itself, it's the location you can see in the weekly chart. I said if having a good reason I take off the trade without a doubt, because a pinbar at this location would put the pair on my watchlist for shorts. A bit too much of traffic below for my taste but it would be on the list though. Having a potential short setup is a reason for me not being long anymore.

I think this is something meant by chris saying the exits will determine whether or not you're going to make money.

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Nice weekend everyone, Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,460
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:38am Oct 16, 2009 10:38am
Quoting Eduardo
Thanks Chris and Infinity, those few posts have helped me snap out of it a little and my head is clearer.

Getting down to business then is anyone else watching 1.07 on usdcad for a possible sell?

I'm liking the look of Aud against more or or less anything at the moment but just got to watch and wait. Nzd too, another interest rate thing. I wonder if that's why the spread is so high on these pairs?
With regards to USD/CAD I have daily S/R at 1.06 and weekly S/R at 1.08, I am looking for short entires still on this pair.

Indeed Aud is the strongest currency at the moment, up 4% this month alone against other currencies in general. Have a look at this useful currency meter, it shows the comparative strength between the major currencies over various time periods.

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/curren...th_calculator/
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