AUD/USD

puks dont get confused they ment usdaud not audusd

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USDAUD=X

No matter what the fundamentals in Australia are at present, the Aud is still very closely correlated to the S&P, we are still in a BEAR market and with investor sentiment at extremes a correction should happen very soon.

from bloomberg

The Australian dollar rose 1.5 percent this week and touched 92.70 U.S. cents yesterday, the strongest level since August 2008, after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said on Oct. 15 he can’t be “too timid” in tightening policy.
Australia’s Rate
Stevens became the first Group of 20 central banker to increase borrowing costs when he unexpectedly boosted the overnight cash target last week by a quarter-percentage point to 3.25 percent from a half-century low. The target rate compares with 0.1 percent in Japan and zero to 0.25 percent in the U.S.
Banks including Barclays Capital, BNP Paribas SA, Morgan Stanley and St. George Bank Ltd. signaled the Australian currency may rise to parity with the U.S. dollar.

If S&P keeps rising AUD will keep rising and parity is a distinct possibility, however we are approaching major resistance levels on the S&P, the bear market has not suddenly gone away it is still in very early days, the AUD has had a fantastic run but probably needs at least a 10% correction we will see very soon.

AMEN!

let's cross our fingers

will you bet on the long side(bullish)on this chart? highly likely it will pullback toward the green line/s before breakout IMO!

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...km_852cfda.png

your opinion please! thank's

Thought I may as well post Friday evening's sentiment index so you can see how FXCM's clients are placed.

Not sure how Sun/Mon is going to play out. My short term charts are mixed but I'll be buying any pullbacks unless I see the VIX shooting through the roof and/or the indices melting down. Just got to remember that historically, the market trends at this time of year and for me, the trend is up (until it's not).

SSI: EURUSD Pull Back Leads Retail Traders to Position for a 1.4960 - 1.4850 Range
Friday, 16 October 2009 17:52:24 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist



SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.84 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.9% higher than yesterday and 0.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 15.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.4% stronger than yesterday and 1.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.42 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 44.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 68.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.6% weaker than yesterday and 7.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.31 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 22.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.3% lower than yesterday and 23.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.3% weaker than yesterday and 15.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.85 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.87 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.4% lower than yesterday and 16.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.6% lower than yesterday and 5.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.1% weaker than yesterday and 14.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.34 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.39 as 70% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 19.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 25.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.2% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.67 as nearly 73% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.31 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.0% lower than yesterday and 15.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.7% higher than yesterday and 7.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.2% weaker than yesterday and 4.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.28 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.12 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.3% lower than yesterday and 22.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 11.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.7% weaker than yesterday and 5.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.21 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 9.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.1% lower than yesterday and 18.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.1% weaker than yesterday and 22.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Saw an interesting article on gold on Bloomberg as well (for those who like to dabble in gold).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=axapyXWM42Zo

Good trades

.

Patience

Thanks for posting when you do. You are always bringing great info and insight to the boards.

It looks ready to complete an inverse H&S pattern. So the pullback to form the right shoulder would seem likely to all the Chart Technicians out there, imo

.

I thought we were in a bull market.

Do you see any bulls?

Hi All,
I think we need to see what happens to all ordinaries before making serious decisions about long or shorting the AU$. I agreee with Patience that the Au$ longing is a better option unless there is a melt down of the Indices. I would also add that Gold prices should also be taken into the equation.

Wishing all a good trading week

Glad that you enjoy reading it. A few people rubbished it on the EUR thread so I don't bother posting it there anymore (unless somebody asks me). Seems that some people don't understand that the market can run and run on sentiment alone. I find it helpful. When we start seeing retail traders jumping on the long trade with force, we'll know it will be about time to get off.

Was just reading this article. I've just copied the paragraphs that I thought were the most relevant. I know that over the years, at times, my mind has been so bogged down with this system and that system and this method and that method that it just spins your mind and it's a good reminder to just go back to the basics.

The key to successful trading IS to focus on reacting to price movements in real time with as little input from analysis as possible, that coupled with controlling ones psychological responses to having put money at risk which can only be achieved by decreasing the position size to a level where individual profits and losses do not result in one breaking out in a sweat !

Now how a person reacts to price movements depends on the mechanism deployed to determine price triggers, after all you could deploy Gann analysis to generate triggers, similarly you could deploy elliott wave and any multitude of other methodologies, but in my opinion the ones best suited towards generating price triggers are those that are the most simplest and easiest to understand of methodologies and those are support and resistance levels and basic trendlines because it does not require you to pick up volumes of literature to understand and therefore lets you concentrate on what is really required and that is to practice generating triggers, practicing reacting to price movements and practice entering and exiting positions.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14286.html

Good trades

thanks Leche Mocha, it was an inverted aud/usd 3 hour chart, i just want to see from the bull side and it confirm me to make decision , yes i ll short it with the green line as the stop in mind

Hello Guys

we are in a clear uptrend, be carefull with shorts !

Bingo! 100 dollar/pips 10pips a day, just like hitchiker ,i see trend then jump in and get off, im practice really hard need more patience in my part

Thanks SwissKinseb, are you expecting she penetrate an break above and beyond your trendline channel?

i wait on 0.9137 or 0.9186 points, then i will decide for long or short

exhibit an establish trend and consolidation, put my bet down and she break out to the up side .. so do i .... out

http://img02.imagefra.me/img/img02/2...qm_de313f4.png

i have fast finger