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Nanningbob 4H trading system

  • #521
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:15pm Oct 15, 2009 8:15pm
After this series of trades are done I will be studying my results over the last 2 years and will come up with fewer pairs to trade at one time. I think over the last 2 years I have enough live data trades to come to some conclusions of which currencies to use. Definitely want to tone down the involvement with the minors.
Right now I have narrowed it down to 15 pairs:
aud/cad aud/nzd aud/jpy chf/jpy
eur/cad eur/jpy eur/usd eur/nzd eur/chf
gbp/jpy gbp/usd nzd/jpy usd/chf usd/jpy usd/sgd

That keeps me to 3 each of the minors aud, nzd, cad (2)
chf 3 eur 5 jpy 6 usd 5
sgd 1

Will decide between several to keep my # of pairs down:
On the chopping block maybe:
aud/jpy eur/jpy eur/chf usd/sgd, one of the NZD pairs
That would give me 2 aud, cad, nzd, gbp, chf and bring the Eur, usd, jpy to 4. I think that would give me a good safe mix of currencies. Anyways, thinking on that one. Then maybe play a bigger lot. or change to increasing levels like 3,5,7 or 4,6,8. Anyway just some thoughts for now.
  • #522
  • Edited 11:02pm Oct 15, 2009 9:59pm | Edited 11:02pm
Forex has just taught me another lesson, EURGBP and USDJPY didn't reverse, they've tricked me and continue to go down/up so now I'm in negative pips.
This time I won't make the same mistake of opening the multi trades too close together though..

Quoting silv3r4sh
I had the Buy EA enabled on USDSGD but it failed to trigger a trade to capture the recent price reversal. So, I manually opened a trade on it. When it went up a bit, I put in an SL to lock in some modest profit and guess what? It came back down and hit my SL. DEFINITELY should have bagged the profit right away. WHAT WAS I THINKING?! It should have been obvious to me that it was in a downward trend and the upward movement was more likely to be short-lived.

I also got a few pips on USDCHF, almost identical to my little story above.

I've just manually...
  • #523
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:45pm Oct 15, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting silv3r4sh
Forex has just taught me another lesson, EURGBP didn't reverse, it tricked me and continues to go down so now I'm in negative pips.
This time I won't make the same mistake of opening the multi trades too close together though..
I have made that mistake many times. You have to keep your spacing or you get too many lots too close together and you have a big deficit. Price will reverse but you have to wait on it, it is not predictable as the aud/usd keeps showing us. But if you keep your spacing you will get it. Keep those 200 pip retracements. Price going over the BB band more than 400 pips is very rare but it does happen and if it does, you are only 3 levels deep instead of 5 or 6 Levels and then BAM price decides to run again. Now you will need a big lot retracement to recover and that is when you can get some serious damage to your account. Even though this run by the AUD and CAD have been trying, I am not in serious trouble at this point even though I dont like the depth of my carryovers.
  • #524
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:22am Oct 16, 2009 3:22am
Dear Bob,

Are these sentiments of retrenchment and revision true about the 60x90 system as well?

Lenoxer
  • #525
  • Oct 16, 2009 7:21am Oct 16, 2009 7:21am
Quoting nanningbob
After this series of trades are done I will be studying my results over the last 2 years and will come up with fewer pairs to trade at one time. I think over the last 2 years I have enough live data trades to come to some conclusions of which currencies to use. Definitely want to tone down the involvement with the minors.
Right now I have narrowed it down to 15 pairs:
aud/cad aud/nzd aud/jpy chf/jpy
eur/cad eur/jpy eur/usd eur/nzd eur/chf
gbp/jpy gbp/usd nzd/jpy usd/chf usd/jpy usd/sgd

That keeps me to 3 each of the minors aud,...
Bob,
What do you think of the idea of still having all the original pairs available to begin with but limiting the number of trades at one time and not taking any new trades until you feel comfortable with DD again? This is how I've been limiting DD so far. When I see margin use or DD starting to get out of hand, I stop taking new trades and give existing trades time to recover. I'm currently trading (demo) .01 lots with a 1.5 multiplier and trying to get by on 100:1 leverage. DD is currently sitting at -868 with +449 banked for the week.
  • #526
  • Oct 16, 2009 8:00am Oct 16, 2009 8:00am
Quoting Toothman
Bob,
What do you think of the idea of still having all the original pairs available to begin with but limiting the number of trades at one time and not taking any new trades until you feel comfortable with DD again? This is how I've been limiting DD so far. When I see margin use or DD starting to get out of hand, I stop taking new trades and give existing trades time to recover. I'm currently trading (demo) .01 lots with a 1.5 multiplier and trying to get by on 100:1 leverage. DD is currently sitting at -868 with +449 banked for the week.
The problem is the new trades often are the ones that help me get out of the hole like last month the gbp/chf and gbp/nzd trades. The problem here was I was invested in two currencies CAD and AUD and had 8 pairs all going long trend on me. The majors were just sitting in the middle of the charts and werent tradeable. In cases like these limiting the number of trades in a currency seems to be a better option than losing possible profitable trades because I am having a bad run. What just happened is really very rare and unusual but it does happen so my thinking is limiting risk in any given currency group. When the gbp had its run I was in Gbp/chf, gbp/jpy and gbp/nzd. 2 of the 3 gave me fits but I was still bagging 1-300 pips a day and that really helped getting me out of the hole. This run there was hardly any help and I ended up being invested too deep in two currencies. So right now my thinking is to go with a smaller group and slightly bigger lots. I had been trading .05 every level but with fewer currencies I am thinking .04, .06, and .08 or .03 .05 .08 for faster recovery. So 3 levels .05 is a .15 commitment and 4,6,8 or 9 is an .18 or .19 commitment or 3,5,8 is .16 commitment. I am movng the recovery levels up 1/3. I like the math a little better but the overall commitment is not that much more at -400 pips Plus the retrace needed wont be as big. Like you I am trying some new numbers to prepare myself for the downgrade of the leverage. Keep the ideas coming, but that is my thinking for now.
  • #527
  • Oct 16, 2009 12:42pm Oct 16, 2009 12:42pm
I found a great correlation. table at this site http://www.forexhit.com/analyze-fore...relations.html to maybe help with deciding which pairs to trade with this EA.
  • #528
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:56pm Oct 16, 2009 10:56pm
Happy to finally take some profit trades, been a while. Eliminated another bad run trade with a small loss. Other currencies ended up where they started. Since I have posted this system this has been my worst week. I would think some people would appreciate me showing both the good and the bad. Most just want to talk about the good and hide the bad, but here we are ready to rock and roll. 3 AUD trades left to get rid of.
TAKE PROFITS
 eur/usd +70
usd/chf +50
CLOSED FOR LOSS
 eur/cad -224 2L +157 total -67

OPEN TRADES
 aud/jpy, 2L -374 3L -259 4L 0
aud/usd, -347 2L -124 3L +35
chf/jpy -158 2L 0
eur/aud, -416 2L -85
eur/jpy -257 2L -1
gbp/chf (not entered)
gbp/jpy -25
gbp/usd -50
 nzd/jpy -185 2L +23
USD/JPY -15

TOTALS
total for day +53
-904 for the week
+550 for the month
Carry over -2238

NEW TRADES
All trades posted are subject to letting the gaps happen Monday first and then deciding which ones to take as trades.
primary trades
BUYS
SELLS aud/cad

Secondary trades
BUYS
SELLS aud/nzd
  • #529
  • Oct 16, 2009 11:03pm Oct 16, 2009 11:03pm
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Bob,

Are these sentiments of retrenchment and revision true about the 60x90 system as well?

Lenoxer
The 60x90 system is not deep in the hole at this point. It survived these runs pretty good. It is only on 3rd level in two trades aud/usd and eur/aud. There are two other currencies at the 2nd level so its in good shape trading wise. The eur/aud is recovering but the aud/usd is far from its TP line. So I will wait them out a little longer and decide whether I want to take my loss on them or not.
  • #530
  • Oct 17, 2009 10:27pm Oct 17, 2009 10:27pm
OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy

aud/cad - aud/nzd this matches minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.

chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd

gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy

Alternatives: the aud/jpy, gbp/jpy, eur/jpy are all similiar so choose two of the 3. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility.

eur/chf, eur/gbp, usd/sgd, hkd/usd are all slow moving currencies and will rarely go more than 3 levels. If I play the eur/gbp I cut the lot size by 1/3 because it uses the most amount of leverage and may not move much for days at a time. It used to be eur/gbp was the slowest currency around but now that the fortunes of England and European economies have diverged it can have some interesting runs at times which I don't know how to judge yet. It used to be the eur/gbp never had a move of over 150 pips in one day but the last year or so 300+ moves have happened often enough that I am keeping my distance on it. Because of the exchange rate with the USD .05 lots with it are like playing .08 to .09 with other currencies.

eur/aud very dangerous currency that go on a run of over a 1000 pips and show 0 retracement.

nzd/chf, nzd/jpy, usd/nzd these currencies trade real nice but then get crushed by strong fundamentals. NZ is a very beautiful country with few people out in the middle of nowhere. The amount of currency in use is very small and at times can get crushed by their bigger neighbors. I love the aud/nzd because the aud news will come out and it will run up and then a couple of days later the same news will come out for NZ and price will retrace back down again. Very similar economies. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility.

I do not recommend trading usd/cad because they both trade the same session and the USD fundamentals can crush the CAD. gbp/nzd, gbp/aud, gbp/cad are just too volatile. I tried trading the gbp/nzd with a 300 pip reentry and still had some interesting times. Just don't think the risk to reward is worth it. If you want to practice recovery methods put these on a demo and go for it. They will give you some interesting runs.

Conclusion: This should give a variety of currencies so if one or two are having runs you don't get too deep into any currency pair. For example if the USD, EUR, or JPY fundamentals are weak and all the others are running on it, you are only battling 4 pairs at one time. More volatile currencies like the commodity currencies and the pound you will only be 2 deep at one time. This should really help in the DD. I am very uncomfortable with being as far over 1500 that I got doing all the pairs, so now I will cut my risk. Hopefully you find this helpful. I made my decisions on my experience with trading all the pairs on demos or live over a 2 year period and I think I have a good handle on their behavior and I also think I have a good balanced mix of all the different currencies.
  • #531
  • Oct 18, 2009 1:00am Oct 18, 2009 1:00am
Dear Bob,

Are these conclusions for your trading universe which appear in the 4H thread also germain for the 60x90 thread as well? Thanks.

Lenoxer
  • #532
  • Oct 18, 2009 8:44am Oct 18, 2009 8:44am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Bob,

Are these conclusions for your trading universe which appear in the 4H thread also germain for the 60x90 thread as well? Thanks.

Lenoxer
Most of the same principals apply, instead of trading inside out, by which I mean being in the middle of the screen and trying to determine the trend and going with it to the bottom or top of the screen, (whiplash land) we try to go from the outside in, ie. 4H system. In the 60x90 or 180x100 we start closer to the center and use the natural up and down motion (the edges of whiplash land) of Forex to take profit. It is kinda of a reverse Fib levels. Instead of following the trend and trying to reenter the dips and hope the trend continues, we use these retraces to take profit knowing, except in extreme cases, they will always happen. The farther from the median we get the closer we are to getting our profit.
  • #533
  • Oct 18, 2009 9:35am Oct 18, 2009 9:35am
Bob,

I think Lenoxer is asking if you use the same 11 pairs and alternates on the 60 x 90 method, as well.

Visual One
  • #534
  • Oct 18, 2009 10:07pm Oct 18, 2009 10:07pm
This week Tues be vary wary of the CAD currencies. If the Canadians think their economy is improving they may increase their bank rate. If they do you want to be on the upside of the CAD. That means you would sell the usd/cad, eur/cad etc. no matter what the indicators say. Normally I am not worried about a .25 increase but after my experience with the AUD you should be wary. The markets are in a moving mood right now to any kind of news.
  • #535
  • Oct 19, 2009 12:08am Oct 19, 2009 12:08am
Hi Bob,

I have 1 quick question. Am i suppose to turn off the EA when close out an order? I noticed when i close out an order, the EA would immediately trigger another order in the same direction. Is there anyway to prevent this from happening?

Thank you very much!
  • #536
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:54am Oct 19, 2009 2:54am
Quoting Visual One
Bob,

I think Lenoxer is asking if you use the same 11 pairs and alternates on the 60 x 90 method, as well.

Visual One
--------------------------------
Dear Bob,

Yes, Visual One is right; do you use the same 11 pairs and alternates on the 60x90 as well?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #537
  • Oct 19, 2009 6:01am Oct 19, 2009 6:01am
Quoting wlp
Hi Bob,

I have 1 quick question. Am i suppose to turn off the EA when close out an order? I noticed when i close out an order, the EA would immediately trigger another order in the same direction. Is there anyway to prevent this from happening?

Thank you very much!
Don't think there is any way around this. That would have to be programed into the existing EA. What I do is turn off EA if I'm closer to TP and leave EA on if I'm closer to L2 kicking in.
  • #538
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:34am Oct 19, 2009 7:34am
Quoting Lenoxer
--------------------------------
Dear Bob,

Yes, Visual One is right; do you use the same 11 pairs and alternates on the 60x90 as well?

Thanks,

Lenoxer

NO the MA is moving with the direction of the trend so price action is different.
  • #539
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:43am Oct 19, 2009 10:43am
Quoting Toothman
Don't think there is any way around this. That would have to be programed into the existing EA. What I do is turn off EA if I'm closer to TP and leave EA on if I'm closer to L2 kicking in.
Thanks for the answer Toothman,

I thought of using auto fixed profit, but that is not possible then because the EA may open another trade when close out a trade. It would be nice if the EA only trigger one trade at the arrow alert or at least not more than 20 pips away. That way we don't have to turn the EA off to TP.

WLP
  • #540
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:10pm Oct 19, 2009 7:10pm
Thank you JPY session for some retraces, used it to close some more bad trades. Slowly working my way out of the hole. When I saw the nice large profit at Support on a bunch of currencies I decided to take it instead of running all day. It had been a while since I had seen that much on the table. Used it to clear out 3 more bad levels. It ended up being the right decision since only the aud/nzd continued on through support.

TAKE PROFITS
aud/cad +10
aud/nzd +70
 Aud/usd 3L +80 2L -79 = +1
gbp/chf +140
gbp/jpy + 125
gbp/usd + 50
usd/jpy +10
CLOSED FOR LOSS
 aud/jpy +50 -324 (took TP and got rid of L 2 losing trade)
eur/aud -390 (I just gave up on this one and closed it out)

OPEN TRADES
 aud/jpy, 3L -320 4l 0
aud/usd, -347 2L 0
chf/jpy -200 2L -44
eur/aud, 2L -220 3L 0
eur/jpy -299 2L -45
nzd/jpy -335 2L -127 3L 0


TOTALS
total for day -258
-258 for the week
+282 for the month
Carry over -1892

NEW TRADES
Even though the aud/cad shows a sell I am not entering with the CAD interest rate news later today. Staying away from that one.
primary trades
BUYS
SELLS gbp/jpy, gbp/usd, (ride the gbp again )

Secondary trades
BUYS usd/chf, eur/nzd (it is at a previous primary trade support from 2 weeks ago)
SELLS eur/usd
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