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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #6,461
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:19pm Oct 15, 2009 9:19pm
Quoting strat
Is that what your "magic" indicators tell you?

LOL....nope....just the chart pattern my friend. Don't fault my gingerbread LOL -- you know better than that!
  • #6,462
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:21pm Oct 15, 2009 9:21pm
Here you go
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  • #6,463
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:22pm Oct 15, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting Alexandra
LOL....nope....just the chart pattern my friend. Don't fault my gingerbread LOL -- you know better than that!
Damn, I was hoping you would let me strip you of your wiggly lines!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,464
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:23pm Oct 15, 2009 9:23pm
EURUSD Monthly shows the 20 above and parallel to the 50 indicating momentum is still up. Last month's bullish bar (on my chart) closed just above the 61.8 retrace of the July 2008 to October 2008 swing.
Price continues to run true and tight to the monthly trend line.
Price hit and briefly retreated from November 2007's high of 1.4967 and hovers at that area.
Next monthly resistance not until 1.5550

EURUSD Weekly also shows the 20 above and parallel to the 50. Price action on the weekly since March of this year has been overwhelmingly bullish with the only bear candles participating in minor retraces (with the exception of April, which showed a bit more pullback).
Last week's BUEB closed above the 100% Dec 2008 to March 2009 swing with this week's candle moving strongly to prior resistance at 1.4967.
Price continues to remain above the weekly trend line.

EURUSD Daily again shows the 20 parallel and above the 50. HOWEVER, in recent weeks price has displayed a tendency to snap back to the 20 after approximately 300 pips. We would be nearing that range with a touch of the psych level of 1.5000.
This week's price action has shown consistently bullish candles with such momentum that neither BUOB nor BUEB were given a chance to occur.

Yesterday's bond hanging man, which was almost an outside bar (on my chart) shows that either long holders took this level to book some profit and there were still plenty of buyers to run it back up OR the MM ran a stop hunt to clear the order book for a good run through 1.5000 and 1.5550.

There are no major news announcements for USD OR EUR to really affect this pair and given it's a Friday I don't expect a big move.

Next week, I don't know what news comes out but I expect price to move hard above or below 1.5000.

Beyond that is past my area of ability.

Given the strong momentum and that this pair has shown reliable retracing for entry, I would enter a trade on this pair if price moves above the psych level of 1.5000 and retraces back. Providing confirming PA is received on the bounce of the retrace.

Likewise I believe the downside counter trend trade would be a viable one too since the rejection of such and important level is likely to be a good one.

Please let me know how you guys see this.
thanks,
-m
  • #6,465
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:25pm Oct 15, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting strat
Damn, I was hoping you would let me strip you of your wiggly lines!
LOL - We'll see...you are growing on me!
  • #6,466
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:27pm Oct 15, 2009 9:27pm
Quoting mstandifer
EURUSD Monthly shows the 20 above and parallel to the 50 indicating momentum is still up. Last month's bullish bar (on my chart) closed just above the 61.8 retrace of the July 2008 to October 2008 swing.
Price continues to run true and tight to the monthly trend line.
Price hit and briefly retreated from November...
Next week, I don't know what news comes out but I expect price to move hard above or below 1.5000.

Beyond that is past my area of ability.

Don't waste energy even thinking about it - Que Sera Sera and we will follow!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,467
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:30pm Oct 15, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - We'll see...you are growing on me!
You mean.............you can tell through the internet? And I just thought it was my cell phone in my pocket!

Oooh, you are awful.......................but I like you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,468
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:32pm Oct 15, 2009 9:32pm
Quoting soso
Hello Strat, I am trying to see your reasoning behind this trade if I may, cause I looked over this pair but didnt see any high prob trade. Please correct me!

BOSS.
While BOSS is down, BIG BOSS seems to be UP. What stands out though is the losing momentum of the down move versus the previous up swing. And how the previous 2 bars reacted to the SR level. Please see the comments in the chart.

Attachment

Daily.
After breaking the previous 2 weeks highs price climbed above both BOSS and Worker 20 and yesterday came...
Hi Soso,

I also took this trade and out of near resistant as I intended to trade to first resistant. I wanted to points out the reasons I took the trade so that Strat can comments on it too. Here are my reasons: 132.00 SR, the last three candles(speacialy the last candle), the trend line, and the story of the buyer and seller on this thread. Please see chart.
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  • #6,469
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:37pm Oct 15, 2009 9:37pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Soso,

I also took this trade and out of near resistant as I intended to trade to first resistant. I wanted to points out the reasons I took the trade so that Strat can comments on it too. Here are my reasons: 132.00 SR, the last three candles(speacialy the last candle), the trend line, and the story of the buyer and seller on this thread. Please see chart.
My opening trade on this was at 130.33 so you are doing good, Patrick, very good.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,470
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:45pm Oct 15, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting strat
Next week, I don't know what news comes out but I expect price to move hard above or below 1.5000.

Beyond that is past my area of ability.

Don't waste energy even thinking about it - Que Sera Sera and we will follow!
Good advice, though, again if one wants to take a strong bias, the longer term CHART (as opposed to squiggly MA) view does argue for a price well above 1.6. Is that really tradable?.....maybe, but day to day one has to follow the ripples to stay alive.
  • #6,471
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:49pm Oct 15, 2009 9:49pm
Quoting strat
My opening trade on this was at 130.33 so you are doing good, Patrick, very good.
Thanks Strat.
  • #6,472
  • Edited 10:00pm Oct 15, 2009 9:51pm | Edited 10:00pm
Just getting the feel of this method and now I see why selling USDCAD on a close under 1.0300 was a poor choice.

First, just a simple glance at the weekly chart screams NOOOO! With that big fat support line at 1.0300.

Second, it wasn't an entry on a retrace.

Third, by looking at the trend lines this is moving into the corner of the larger weekly triangle and will likely bounce around for another week or 3 before deciding a direction.

Fourth, we'll note the possible beginning influence of the rubber band effect on price on the daily.

All this despite the fact that momentum on all 3 time frames is still very strong down. I'm not sure I would even take that sell trade on a successful retrace of the broken 1.0300 support. On the broken trend line retrace maybe.

Perhaps if someone had posted their account number like they promised, they could have saved me the trouble of that trade...
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  • #6,473
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:01pm Oct 15, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting Alexandra
Good advice, though, again if one wants to take a strong bias, the longer term CHART (as opposed to squiggly MA) view does argue for a price well above 1.6. Is that really tradable?.....maybe, but day to day one has to follow the ripples to stay alive.
If I was in the forecasting business, which I'm not, I would look for EURUSD along these lines.

But there again, maybe railway lines would be better?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,474
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:04pm Oct 15, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting mstandifer
Just getting the feel of this method and now I see why selling USDCAD on a close under 1.0300 was a poor choice.

First, just a simple glance at the weekly chart screams NOOOO! With that big fat support line at 1.0300.

Second, it wasn't an entry on a retrace.

Third, by looking at the trend lines this is moving into the corner of the larger weekly triangle and will likely bounce around for another week or 3 before deciding a direction.

Fourth, we'll note the possible beginning influence of the rubber band effect on price on the daily.

All this...
Another step on The Path, you're doing OK. Keep stepping forward one careful step at a time.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,475
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:49pm Oct 15, 2009 10:49pm
Hey Cosmo, have you disappeared into the Bush, fallen into the billabong, runaway with a Sheila or been eaten by the Swagman?

We are still awaiting your answer to Post #6350
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,476
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:55pm Oct 15, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting strat
You mean.............you can tell through the internet? And I just thought it was my cell phone in my pocket!

Oooh, you are awful.......................but I like you!
haha good one

you two need to get a room..
  • #6,477
  • Oct 15, 2009 11:38pm Oct 15, 2009 11:38pm
I continue reading great things here. Great to have a thread on real naked trading...thanks for all your enlightenments. Still working through the threads, have a few questions but they just might be answered by the end so got them written down. A few have been crossed off already :-)
  • #6,478
  • Oct 16, 2009 1:38am Oct 16, 2009 1:38am
Quoting strat
soso, don’t worry about labels, we don’t have to be right or wrong – just profitable.

Only the market is RIGHT.
You are right, many thanks Strat!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,479
  • Oct 16, 2009 1:54am Oct 16, 2009 1:54am
Quoting patrick25
Hi Soso,

I also took this trade and out of near resistant as I intended to trade to first resistant. I wanted to points out the reasons I took the trade so that Strat can comments on it too. Here are my reasons: 132.00 SR, the last three candles(speacialy the last candle), the trend line, and the story of the buyer and seller on this thread. Please see chart.
Hi Patrick,

Thanks for the chart, indeed it looked good.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,480
  • Oct 16, 2009 2:26am Oct 16, 2009 2:26am
Hello everyone,

I am in a timezone (Eastern Europe) where Daily bars on most brokers close around 01 AM in the morning and usually I go to sleep by 12 AM at latest. I wonder how do other people in my situation deal with it? Since orders _should_ be placed AFTER the close of the Daily bar how do you do it if you most lilely sleep?

I have 2 solutions for now, think about bullish setup:

  1. Wait at least until 1 hour before closing and look what the bar is telling you, if it is a good entry bar (e.g. BUOB) then put the order above it and hopefully in the last our of activity things it wont put another high and open the order too soon.
  2. Build an EA that waits until the bar closes and place the order few pips above its high. Even if this method removes the inconvenience of the first method is still not ok if the bar changes its story in the last hour (no more BUOB or hammer).


How do you people in similar situation deal with it?

Thank you!

Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
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