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  • #6,661
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:33am Oct 15, 2009 8:33am
Quoting puks
I just lost $2000 in Cable. All the hard earned money I made by going long in AUD (after that september NFP where I was short and fighting the trend).

Feel suicidal now :-(
I'm sorry to hear that. I'm going to have to agree with G Man on this one. I have a love/hate relationship with Cable and very rarely trade it. Traders generally like to trade Cable because of it's volatility but it can be a right pain when you are on the wrong side of that volatility and I was more often than not on the wrong side of it.

When I first started trading Cable was the currency I traded the most. I thought that because I lived in the country I would have a better handle on it. I was fooling myself. Once I dropped Cable my account became a lot healthier.

I don't want to sound like I am preaching here but because you are relatively new to trading I would suggest that you get to know one or two currencies really, really well - my favourites are EUR and AUD. Then when you feel really comfortable with those currencies then maybe you can branch out.

Tomorrow is another day though. When I experienced big losses I used to think well at least I haven't opened a restaurant, spent thousands on refurbishing it, signed up a ten year lease and then watch the business go under with no hope of recouping the money that I had laid out. That's the beauty of forex - you can just shut your computer and take a break and when you feel better, come back and place some killer trades.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #6,662
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:47am Oct 15, 2009 8:47am
Quoting blue_z_zz
thanks buddy for the report my i ask you to post the fxcm ssi report plzz

I've posted the full monty because I know some of you trade other currencies. And speaking of GBP earlier, the report last night finally showed traders net short on GBP. They've been net long on it for weeks now. And who said sentiment indexes were a load of rubbish


SSI: Retail Traders Pull Back 20.7% with Open Interest Weakening 2.7%
Thursday, 15 October 2009 09:54:03 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:


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SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.78 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.32 as 70% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 19.6% higher than yesterday and 18.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.2% lower than yesterday and 0.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 3.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.00 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 20.7% lower than yesterday and 22.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.2% higher than yesterday and 2.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% weaker than yesterday and 1.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.71 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.7% lower than yesterday and 21.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 35.3% higher than yesterday and 25.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.9% stronger than yesterday and 12.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.20 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.46 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.7% lower than yesterday and 23.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 31.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% weaker than yesterday and 6.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.75 as nearly 73% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.06 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 6.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.6% higher than yesterday and 19.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.6% weaker than yesterday and 9.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.10 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.44 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 16.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.2% higher than yesterday and 0.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.6% stronger than yesterday and 7.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.47 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.2% lower than yesterday and 22.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.0% lower than yesterday and 36.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.7% weaker than yesterday and 6.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.11 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.27 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 25.1% lower than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.4% higher than yesterday and 25.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 11.7% weaker than yesterday and 22.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #6,663
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:48am Oct 15, 2009 8:48am
Well said, Patience. I would like to add to that something that's not as caring and sensitive. I too have experienced large losses and held my head in my hands. Now I know that the market goes where it wants my exposure is always very low. Now I get quite a few small losses and a very few big gains.

You're right, Patience. Cable can be a right pain. Are you from Manchester?
Gone to a better place
  • #6,664
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:56am Oct 15, 2009 8:56am
Quoting puks
I just lost $2000 in Cable. All the hard earned money I made by going long in AUD (after that september NFP where I was short and fighting the trend).

Feel suicidal now :-(
Hey puks!! Feel sorry for you man!! But don't worry, everyday is a new day and tomorrow might be your day!!

I am also having a bad day esp with USD/JPY and have all my 5 short positions in red but no worries, everyday can't be the same. You win some and you lose some!!

As for trading with cable, i agree that its very volatile and at times goes crazy for no reason. Recently I have figured that AUD/USD & USD/JPY are the kind of pairs that suits my style of trading so i mainly focussing on these two these days!!

Don't worry, you will make much more than what you lost today from Forex! The important thing is to remain in the game!
  • #6,665
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:58am Oct 15, 2009 8:58am
Quoting smikester
Well said, Patience. I would like to add to that something that's not as caring and sensitive. I too have experienced large losses and held my head in my hands. Now I know that the market goes where it wants my exposure is always very low. Now I get quite a few small losses and a very few big gains.

You're right, Patience. Cable can be a right pain. Are you from Manchester?
Very good advice. It took me over two years (I think it was) to work out that trading smaller lots would be beneficial in the longer term.

No, I'm not from Manchester. I'm a Kiwi living in London hoping to go and live in Oz ...... when the GBP improves against the AUD that is - I might be waiting a loooooonnnnnggggg time for that though ....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #6,666
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:11am Oct 15, 2009 9:11am
[quote=Patience;3150154]I've posted the full monty because I know some of you trade other currencies. And speaking of GBP earlier, the report last night finally showed traders net short on GBP. They've been net long on it for weeks now. And who said sentiment indexes were a load of rubbish


thanks patience
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #6,667
  • Oct 15, 2009 11:58am Oct 15, 2009 11:58am
A/U is at .9192 looks a bit too suspicious if its rebounding this fast.
We may see a sudden drop again to 0.9100, that is 50% fibo level in H1 possibly tomorrow Friday, as the usual killing field day. Beware all the longs

If I am not mistaken if you are Elliotinian wave 5 has completed and possibly now is going to shape the wave A, B. Point is my place to buy limit at 0.9100.
But I am not going to risk to short from here, coz I maybe wrong, so I will wait to ride along the uptrend instead.

You don't have to buy this, its just my opinion.
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-Only you and your signal, stick to it. The rest are just noise-
  • #6,668
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:26pm Oct 15, 2009 1:26pm
For me, it's about trying to juggle technicals vs fundamentals.

On the technical side, I'm wondering when it'll turn around and head south, knowing that it's been on the upside for a long time now - feels like a ticking bomb, always wary of anything which might indicate a downside.

But on the fundamental side, rates in Aus look like they're only going one way. The economy seems strong with no hint of any troubles ahead. Commodities also looking strong. No one seems to be able to provide an argument for US rates to increase. The world seems keen on dumping the USD as a reserve currency.

All fundamentals seems to be pointing towards a stronger AUD/USD in the next few months (save in the event, god forbid, of a shock world event that sends people panicking). Yet I can't seem to shake the feeling of "it's gotta come down hard soon after all this upside".
  • #6,669
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:44pm Oct 15, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting kwcmau
For me, it's about trying to juggle technicals vs fundamentals.

On the technical side, I'm wondering when it'll turn around and head south, knowing that it's been on the upside for a long time now - feels like a ticking bomb, always wary of anything which might indicate a downside.

But on the fundamental side, rates in Aus look like they're only going one way....

Excellent post really & I must say that you have summed it up pretty well!
  • #6,670
  • Oct 15, 2009 2:08pm Oct 15, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting Pak Tiger
Excellent post really & I must say that you have summed it up pretty well!
Hope you get in there with good stop losses and small lots to build on. Good trading to you sir.
Gone to a better place
  • #6,671
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:05pm Oct 15, 2009 3:05pm
The aud/USD may only face significant downside if Equity markets correct substantially.

When Aud interest rates were at 7% and Japanese rates at 0.25% the carry trade was travelling well, until liquidations happened on a massive scale and long bids were very few. Expect the same thing to happen again currently the Australian economic fundamentals are producing major bids, this will not change in a major way until all want to exit due to some sort of crisis, until then it is buy in the dips, we are however due for a minor correction maybe to 84-85

For the shorts when will this correction come to 84/85? a 10% correction on the DOW, could bring us down to the mid 80 area, or a removal of stimulis from Aust Economy slowing down Australian growth subtsantially, or Fed also beginning to remove liquidity from the market. For a major collapse of the Aud currency maybe a collapse in commodity prices via trouble in China/ and or major crisis of confidence again globally.

anything can happen.
  • #6,672
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:27pm Oct 15, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting puks
I will now definitely use s/l going forward.

worst feeling ever - didn't learn my lesson from that NFP night and kept shorting that pair. It moved 250+ pips against me at 50K position.

dead.
Hi puks,

I have been silently following this thread for the past 6 weeks and it was kinda interesting.
I started trading, knowing basically nothing, in April 08 and got of course fully hit by the crisis...I had no idea.. and I lost 20 times your loss in a few weeks.
But the good thing was that I learned pretty fast. Now I am at least smart enough to know which lotsizes I can handle with my account size.
I am still carrying a few trades from last August/September to December...in the meantime I was able to close a few with profit already and I made back 60% of my losses already.

To make a long story short: use small lotsizes or rather lots that fit well to your account size...this way you can even afford to go without SL...it is just a matter of time, when the price will come back...or you will also be able to use a bit of a martingale....this way you will definately be able to close in profit at some point.

I am still caught in shorts on Aussie beginning at 0.83....at some point I was able to close a few trades in profit already and then I started to do longs, too ( I am allowed to hedge )....because I have small lotsizes I can handle the DD....while holding these positions I still make money here and there by buying and selling over and over again after closing trades, that are in profit....but overall I keep the same amount of lots on that account.

At some point even Aussie has to have a reversal....at some point the $ has to become stronger again...just follow the news once in a while here on FF....read the thread and you will read that people from Australia are wondering where the strong Aussie is coming from because the economy isnīt all THAT great at all.....

I have also lost on G/U - it is a crazy pair...but now, that I learned a lot, I am much more confident. I know which jumps this pair is capable of, I know about daily, weekly and even monthly ranges, s/rīs and so forth....
But the key is always to keep your lotsizes rather low....
In Forex you need patience :-)
Rather have small profits but consistently than big losses because of big lotsizes where you HAVE to have an SL......at least thatīs my way for now .....

I know how you feel and all I can say is: it will hurt a few days but after a while you will feel better....I just hope, you are still able to trade...this way you always have the chance to get it all back again :-)

May the pips be with ya...

4rexlady
  • #6,673
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:37pm Oct 15, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting 4rexLady_de
Hi puks,

I have been silently following this thread for the past 6 weeks and it was kinda interesting. <snip>
What a most excellent post. In my opinion you are quite correct, although I never trade without a stoploss.

I see forex the same as the old fable about the tortoise vs the hare. We all know that the tortoise won the race, not the hare. I was told some time ago about taking small profits which make your account grow at a suprising rate when you look back on it. It's not hard to turn (say) $1000 into $1050 within a week or two. Some might say '$50??? is that all you got?'. But looking at it another way, show me a bank that will give you a $50 return on your $1000 investment in 2 weeks! $50/week for 50 weeks = $2500 profit on your $1000. 250% 'interest' over 1 year. There is no bank that will return you that sort of dividend is there?!

Make haste slowly, as they say

5c
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #6,674
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:03pm Oct 15, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting realjumper
What a most excellent post. In my opinion you are quite correct, although I never trade without a stoploss.

I see forex the same as the old fable about the tortoise vs the hare. We all know that the tortoise won the race, not the hare. I was told some time ago about taking small profits which make your account grow at a suprising rate when you look back on it. It's not hard to turn (say) $1000 into $1050 within a week or two. Some might say '$50??? is that all you got?'. But looking at it another way, show me a bank that will give you a $50 return...
Hi realj...

thank you very much...it is just my humble two cent :-)

And you brought it right to the point with your example! That is precisely what I think, too!
With my truly tiny lotsizes ( maximum is 0.2...but mostly much less than that ), I made already 750 Euros this month....and I am happy with it.
I take whatever the market gives from the table and open a new trade if it makes sense....sometimes in the opposite direction, sometimes the same direction...it all depends.
This way my account is growing slowly while I am waiting for my chance to close out my open positions in profit :-)

The moves today on Geppy and G/u were not foreseeable for anyone of us....many were on the short side as they were expecting the pound to drop further. But I have seen that it refused to go lower...there was a strong support....and it drifted sideways for a few days already....for me, having observed the two pairs quite closely over the past year, it was almost certain that it will steam upwards....just didnīt know when...
So I actually made a third of my profits for this month just today :-)

I also had an AUSSIE position from last year August....today I could finally close it in profit plus a nice swap :-)

Patience....and the right lotsize....and you can sit out almost anything....;-)

4rexlady
  • #6,675
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:11pm Oct 15, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting Money-RX
Taking 25% position in first buy @ 9165. Maybe we sill see a repeat of yesterday 8:00 AM EST.
Back again and nice to come home to another profitable position.

Well, the first buy was filled and now profitable but missed out on the other 3 buy limit orders. They were close but didn't get filled. Can't get too greedy.

Looks like it was a repeat of yesterdays NY open after all. It can be another discussion but the London and New York open exhibit patterns that you can trade, particular with GBP.
History is written by the victors.
  • #6,676
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:25pm Oct 15, 2009 4:25pm
Hi Guys,

I have been watching this pair just keep going up and was waiting for a decent retracement to go long, but every time I wake up it's gone up even more so I just thought best just to jump on board, then of course, it goes down lol so bought another microlot!

Seems from the weekly chart attached that there are no signs of weakness and the trendline is being respected 100 percent so far.
If it retraces to the trendline then that will be 87830 which is 400 pips down.

Target is 98486 and if it keeps up the current ascent at the same rate it will take 6 weeks. A little bit slower than that and it will be at the end of this year. Then sell off in January next year, that's what I'm hoping for.

Let's see if I can ride this it out, doubtful though as I don't like drawdown or long term but this one just seems to look right.

Cheers J
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  • #6,677
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:36pm Oct 15, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting kwcmau
For me, it's about trying to juggle technicals vs fundamentals.

On the technical side, I'm wondering when it'll turn around and head south, knowing that it's been on the upside for a long time now - feels like a ticking bomb, always wary of anything which might indicate a downside.

But on the fundamental side, rates in Aus look like they're only going one way. The economy seems strong with no hint of any troubles ahead. Commodities also looking strong. No one seems to be able to provide an argument for US rates to increase. The world seems keen...
Sorry for a bit of politics but Fundamentals are ruling A/U unless you are scalping on a short time frame.

The United States will be the last to raise interest rates, stuck without an Exit Strategy. Australia did not talk about it at all, but recently raised its rates by 25 basis points. Generally speaking, those who do too much speaking do too little doing. The crippled nature of the conditions in the United States dictate continued 0% easy money. The powerful players in the Dollar Carry Trade will ensure that the free money parade does not stop. It is self-sustaining. They will even influence the USFed not to hike rates. Furthermore, the next round of bank losses from commercial mortgages and prime Option ARMortgages will deliver big blows. Some astute analysts are already estimating the magnitude of the next round of bank losses. Any hike in interest rates would not only add costs to borrowers across the USEconomy, but add costs to the USGovt. They are, by the way, producing trillion$ deficits.

The endless series of stimulus for a moribund USEconomy, rampant corruption, reduced payroll taxes collected as federal revenue, nationalized Black Hole costs (Fannie Mae, AIG, GM), current health care costs (Medicare), hidden banker welfare (TARP funds one pearl on a string), sacred military budget (contractor largesse & syndicate benefit), and stupid pork projects will continue to churn out gigantic mind-numbing federal deficits. The only reduction seen is in forecasts by official agencies, which bear little reflection to reality

The one possible turnaround as you stated will be a shocking world event which may be a distinct possibility given the nuclear capabilities and turmoil in many parts of the globe.
Attached Image
History is written by the victors.
  • #6,678
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:50pm Oct 15, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting slimcat
Hi Guys,

I have been watching this pair just keep going up and was waiting for a decent retracement to go long, but every time I wake up it's gone up even more so I just thought best just to jump on board, then of course, it goes down lol so bought another microlot!

Seems from the weekly chart attached that there are no signs of weakness and the trendline is being respected 100 percent so far.
If it retraces to the trendline then that will be 87830 which is 400 pips down.

Target is 98486 and if it keeps up the current ascent at the same rate...
When you are in a trend like this check out the hourlies for an entry point.
The RSI, Fibs, and MA's have been right on all year.
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History is written by the victors.
  • #6,679
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:56pm Oct 15, 2009 6:56pm
Gidddy-uppp

Wonder if we will get a repeat of the last few days timing at Asia openings or 7-8 PM EST. Both days time were the start of a nice run up.
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History is written by the victors.
  • #6,680
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:09pm Oct 15, 2009 7:09pm
The contrarian indicates a very overbought daily ripe for the next retrace or buying opportunity. Limit buy orders in at 9200.

Morning buy now up around 80.
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History is written by the victors.
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