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  • #6,401
  • Oct 15, 2009 5:22am Oct 15, 2009 5:22am
Quoting alter
I had couple of SLs today. On GBPUSD there were 2 valid short signals, SS on 30.9 and BEOB on 9.10, both were stopped out today. 1.6100 was strong S/R area for couple of months unfortunately it was broken.
I was stooped out on AUDJPY as well, weekly BEOB from 82 level that is also 50% fib ret also did not work out. I think I should stop use these bars before I wipe out my account completely.
alter
Tough luck Alter, but this is a fact of trading life. Perhaps we can use the experience to learn something.

Observing your AUDJPY trade, I agree the short was at the right place. However, if you notice the weekly shows the price bounced off 76.68 3 times since you would've entered the trade. The first time is for us to notice. The second time it bounced off, perhaps take some profit or close out. But the market was generous to give us a 3rd opportunity to exit at a profit at the close of the doji. If you missed that, you should have got out at the close of the giant candle at a relatively small loss.

I haven't looked closely at your other chart, so don't have any comments on that.

Well, lessons learnt will come in useful the next time!

Pandu
  • #6,402
  • Oct 15, 2009 5:43am Oct 15, 2009 5:43am
I am working my way through this whole thread and felt I needed to come out of lurk mode to thank Strat and also everyone else that has been so selflessly giving of their trading knowledge.

I trade for a living fulltime but have only recently (since finding this thread) totally weened myself off of indicators, I must say it is wonderful having clean charts and just concentrating on the worker and the boss.

Great work all and my heartfelt thanks.
  • #6,403
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:03am Oct 15, 2009 6:03am
Quoting chanak
Tough luck Alter, but this is a fact of trading life. Perhaps we can use the experience to learn something.

Observing your AUDJPY trade, I agree the short was at the right place. However, if you notice the weekly shows the price bounced off 76.68 3 times since you would've entered the trade. The first time is for us to notice. The second time it bounced off, perhaps take some profit or close out. But the market was generous to give us a 3rd opportunity to exit at a profit at the close of the doji. If you missed that, you should have got out at...
The short would have only been on once a confirmed swing high was put in. In the case of this pair it never was. The top of the IB was taken out and up she went. It can only be a double top once PA has confirmed the second swing high and has started heading down IMO. Hence in my previous analysis I said it may have been better to 'bracket' the IB with orders. In this case the IB was a continuation bar of good old Dr Joe's kind!

Now this is NOT something that I'm doing at the moment as I don't have the confidence in using IBs and neither should any one else on the path until such time that Strat has introduced them OR has given you the push to progress to them under your own steam.

I do know a trader who trades exclusively on breakouts of the swing lows and highs and only sees the markets as horizontal levels. I guess it's just like following a stair case up or down. This kind of trade would have got you into audyen LONG but as he admits, it's more about studying and timing the exits more than the entries!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,404
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:05am Oct 15, 2009 6:05am
Quoting Naws
Thanks for the post Dan, its good to see others doing well.

I wanted to ask how your trading changed as you went from a demo to a live account? Did it become more difficult or did you manage it well?
Hi Naws, no, i didn't handle it very well at the beginning to be honest. Don't get me wrong, demo was valuable but being live (to begin with) was like a cold bucket of water!

To keep it brief; as soon as real money was on the line i forgot about all i had learnt on demo initially. It came back to me, but that first month was tricky.

I'm sure you'll be fine but don't underestimate how different live will be to demo
  • #6,405
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:13am Oct 15, 2009 6:13am
Quoting rockk
nice story Dan, but one thing i want to carify, you said you dont use stops?
No i don't. I manage my trades a little differently. Did you read the post i linked to?

Trade management is the hardest challenge (i find) and will evolve for you the more you trade.
  • #6,406
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:26am Oct 15, 2009 6:26am
Goodness - is that USDJPY coming to the party?
  • #6,407
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:36am Oct 15, 2009 6:36am
Quoting Alexandra
Goodness - is that USDJPY coming to the party?
It's about time!
  • #6,408
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:19am Oct 15, 2009 7:19am
Quoting mstandifer
Big boss, Boss and Worker all show continuing downtrend.
Price has crossed (but not closed) the critical 1.3000 support level.

The last time we closed under 1.3000, price ranged in that now obvious 500 pip range just mentioned.

Because this is strong downtrend and I am unsure of a retrace but am more confident of the continuing downtrend (as long as it's going down it will keep going down), I will enter a sell order for 3 USDCAD at close of NY session today if it closes under 1.3000....
Trade stopped out at 1.3025.
  • #6,409
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:31am Oct 15, 2009 7:31am
Quoting alter
I had couple of SLs today. On GBPUSD there were 2 valid short signals, SS on 30.9 and BEOB on 9.10, both were stopped out today. 1.6100 was strong S/R area for couple of months unfortunately it was broken.
I was stooped out on AUDJPY as well, weekly BEOB from 82 level that is also 50% fib ret also did not work out. I think I should stop use these bars before I wipe out my account completely.
alter
Hi Alter, IMHO, the trade that you took for audjpy should be considered as a counter-trend trade in my book. Not sure what the others think though.

Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,410
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:32am Oct 15, 2009 7:32am
Quoting AstonDan
No i don't. I manage my trades a little differently. Did you read the post i linked to?

Trade management is the hardest challenge (i find) and will evolve for you the more you trade.
i know of course mm is the toughest part of trading,exit is the second.
if you trade WITHOUT STOP and succeful in that by doing your own homework and methodology, I am and we are happy for your success. hope for you more success in the coming monthes and years of trading life.
  • #6,411
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:37am Oct 15, 2009 7:37am
Quoting AstonDan
No i don't. I manage my trades a little differently. Did you read the post i linked to?

Trade management is the hardest challenge (i find) and will evolve for you the more you trade.
I know of course mm is the toughest part of trading,exit comes next.
if you trade WITHOUT STOP and you are succeful in that by doing your homework and your own methodology, I am and we are happy for you. hope for you more success in the coming monthes and years of trading life.
  • #6,412
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:42am Oct 15, 2009 7:42am
uh!,sorry for repost, did not show for me that my post already there.
  • #6,413
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:45am Oct 15, 2009 7:45am
Quoting Blackeagle
Now the question is: would you like to try to pick the bottom or wait for 141 broken and tested?
Is a retest a hard requirement for entry? USD/CAD for example.

My stopped out trade entered at yesterday's close. Entry was based on similarities of the last time it entered this area. Yes, I know you can't count on things happening the same way twice but how would that trend entry have been played the first time if you didnt get in at 1.0442?

-m
  • #6,414
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:59am Oct 15, 2009 7:59am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Alter, IMHO, the trade that you took for audjpy should be considered as a counter-trend trade in my book. Not sure what the others think though.

Sean
I would say it was 50% replacement of down move. But yes immediate trend was up.
  • #6,415
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:02am Oct 15, 2009 8:02am
Quoting Grimweasel
The short would have only been on once a confirmed swing high was put in. In the case of this pair it never was. The top of the IB was taken out and up she went. ...
Hi Grimweasel,
I can't see the IB you are referring to. Just to be sure we are on the same chart, I was referring to the weekly AUDJPY that Alter had posted. Also, IMO we don't necessarily need a double top on a weekly, remembering that a weekly encompasses 5 dailies.
Which IB are you referring to?

Thanks for the clarification.
Pandu
  • #6,416
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:30am Oct 15, 2009 9:30am
A lot of people have been asking about going from demo to a live account and is it worth trading a demo.

I only got into the world of FX about 2 months ago, prior to that I traded equities with some success, although it was mostly due to luck and timing rather than technical analysis.

When I started FX I started a demo account, and I was lucky enough to stumble upon Strat's thread and a couple of other commercial threads at FF that use a similar style to Strat. I learned how to use MT4 and read and tried to absorb as much of this thread as possible. I started trading on the demo and I actually did quite well. By "well", I mean I didn't blow my account and made modest gains.

Since I traded before, I know one of my biggest barriers to trading will be planning an exit and accepting losses and both these things are easy to do on a demo account. I have decided I am going to go live with a small amount of risk capital that I can accept to lose with no negative affects on my financial situation or my life in general.
  • #6,417
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:31am Oct 15, 2009 10:31am
Quoting Alexandra
Ahhhhh.....indeed.....not just on the daily either. That was the givaway despite the talk of resistance and double tops.
Amazing how if you just drop a hint or a seed, it manifests itself across the misinformed - it happens everytime!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,418
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:32am Oct 15, 2009 10:32am
Quoting Alexandra
Is cable actually over that big fat line?...Glory be!
Since it worked so well with GBPUSD, me thinks I need to get some new software so that I can draw bigger and fatter support lines - must be the big boys reading the thread!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,419
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:41am Oct 15, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Blackeagle
This is what I see at the moment.
In total agreement, my friend. On my data it is actually at resistance now but if the buyers have strength to break through that, I see 1.6450 as the real test.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,420
  • Oct 15, 2009 10:47am Oct 15, 2009 10:47am
Quoting Blackeagle
It took more than a month to breach 1.4880 from previous SR. It may not take that long to get 1.5400, if history repeats itself.
How she copes with psycho 1.5 will tell us a lot.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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