agreed, since divergence is a lagging indicator. it only tells what happened in the past
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
james16 Chart Thread
- #46,082
- Oct 15, 2009 2:58am Oct 15, 2009 2:58am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
agreed, since divergence is a lagging indicator. it only tells what happened in the past
But Divergence is not the same i think its pretty real time thing.
Just what i think.
- #46,083
- Oct 15, 2009 3:08am Oct 15, 2009 3:08am
Actually, if you think about it, everything except the next 1 tick is "the past".
Price action just kinda sums up the past X mins/hours/ (whatever timeframes) worth of data and places it into a graphical format on a price time axis.
Market prices statistically are a continuous function, not a discrete one (go look @ a level 2 screen, where does the bar start and end?) If you add leading lagging argument + the notion that markets are a probabilistic creature, then u get flucutating varieties of leading/lagging, continuous-discrete?? --> Confusion --> BS --> Not useful
We need charts to place the market into a framework which we can comprehend.
IE: It boils down to the perception of the individual. Leading lagging... honestly doesn't matter does it? Can you make it work? That should be the #1 question.
I suck at CT trading. It scares the sh*t outta me. If I see a 4hour divergence, I zoom into the 1hour and wait for a pinbar in the direction of the divergence so that I'm some sorta "with the trend".
Summary: Who cares about leading lagging? What works for you?
Price action just kinda sums up the past X mins/hours/ (whatever timeframes) worth of data and places it into a graphical format on a price time axis.
Market prices statistically are a continuous function, not a discrete one (go look @ a level 2 screen, where does the bar start and end?) If you add leading lagging argument + the notion that markets are a probabilistic creature, then u get flucutating varieties of leading/lagging, continuous-discrete?? --> Confusion --> BS --> Not useful
We need charts to place the market into a framework which we can comprehend.
IE: It boils down to the perception of the individual. Leading lagging... honestly doesn't matter does it? Can you make it work? That should be the #1 question.
I suck at CT trading. It scares the sh*t outta me. If I see a 4hour divergence, I zoom into the 1hour and wait for a pinbar in the direction of the divergence so that I'm some sorta "with the trend".
Summary: Who cares about leading lagging? What works for you?
One Mind, Any Market
- #46,084
- Edited 4:03am Oct 15, 2009 3:20am | Edited 4:03am
Actually, if you think about it, everything except the next 1 tick is "the past".
Price action just kinda sums up the past X mins/hours/ (whatever timeframes) worth of data and places it into a graphical format on a price time axis.
Market prices statistically are a continuous function, not a discrete one (go look @ a level 2 screen, where does the bar start and end?) If you add leading lagging argument + the notion that markets are a probabilistic creature, then u get flucutating varieties of leading/lagging, continuous-discrete?? --> Confusion...
I dont personally make much use of them, but when I see Jim/rac/ryan using TRIN, EMAs and MACD/div, then I know there must be something to them. (and dont fool yourself - people moving alot more money than all of us put together use indicators. that's the main reason they actually work.)
Even fewer people really know what a chart is, and so when they start trying to build 'systems', they are starting from a shaky foundation. The lack of a fundamental understanding of markets and market structure means that most people are just wasting their time (at best) when they start building and testing systems based on derivitives of price. At worst, they are coming to flawed conclusions because they are basing their work on flawed premises.
To throw out an analogy, I dont know how a microwave works. And that's fine, as long as I just want to use it to heat up my lunch. I can even get really good at heating up my lunch. But, should I announce that I plan to use my limited knowledge to build a better microwave... y'all should run the opposite way. Fast.
See: the guy that tried convincing me that he could make money by shorting when the spread widened. lol.
Im glad someone here gets it
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #46,085
- Oct 15, 2009 4:02am Oct 15, 2009 4:02am
Pillars of salt, pillars of sand...
Now all we need to hear are Jerusalem bells ringing.
Omg that was corny. wth. LOL
Edit: Joel, now will be a great time to place a link to your "explaining divergence using football" post. Enjoyed tt one heaps.
Your analogies rock
Edit2: Behold!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42656
This one deserves to be on the front page of the thread. hahaha
Now all we need to hear are Jerusalem bells ringing.
Omg that was corny. wth. LOL
Edit: Joel, now will be a great time to place a link to your "explaining divergence using football" post. Enjoyed tt one heaps.
Your analogies rock
Edit2: Behold!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42656
This one deserves to be on the front page of the thread. hahaha
One Mind, Any Market
- #46,086
- Oct 15, 2009 4:06am Oct 15, 2009 4:06am
Pillars of salt, pillars of sand...
*edit* this is what happens when the markets are slow. someone needs to introduce some volatility before we start passing out ffrom analogy overload.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #46,088
- Oct 15, 2009 4:44am Oct 15, 2009 4:44am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
Pillars of salt, pillars of sand...
Now all we need to hear are Jerusalem bells ringing.
Omg that was corny. wth. LOL
Edit: Joel, now will be a great time to place a link to your "explaining divergence using football" post. Enjoyed tt one heaps.
Your analogies rock
Edit2: Behold!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42656
This one deserves to be on the front page of the thread. hahaha
- #46,094
- Oct 15, 2009 6:09am Oct 15, 2009 6:09am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
From a personal perspective, I am reluctant to sell into this bullish move, I don't see this as a particularly good strategy ?
Anyway this is not intended to be personal, yet I see your charts a bit crowded, they are colourful as well, yet I think this can only distract from the simple OHLC bars necessary for the J16 method, I find the less distracing the better, let me know what you think...ok ?
Should the EUR form up a nice reversal PB I would be interested, yet I can wait for the formations
About the trade: yes i think these small bars wont flip the trend they will hardly manage to start a little range. But i am on demo and that's what i am working on (TO pass these setups).
The charts: Yea they certainly are
. Cause where ever i find 2 or more H/L and pullbacks i feel that i need to highlight them( maybe not feeling well.lol). My charts are in development phase along with myself so i hope they will improve.Take a look at this EG and compare it with CHF and EUR charts clear passage right. This what i want to find out (by coloring my charts.lol).
- #46,097
- Oct 15, 2009 7:39am Oct 15, 2009 7:39am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts
I dream, therefore I become.
- #46,098
- Oct 15, 2009 8:00am Oct 15, 2009 8:00am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
Well , Got the pullback situation I wanted to see. ...Kind of. 
As you can see from my chart, though, not exactly clean-cut with the trendlines on this one.
Watching for some real good confirmation.
For now though , a push to 1.6400 would give a better confluence situation for me.
(Charts attached)
Niiiice. 
.
As you can see from my chart, though, not exactly clean-cut with the trendlines on this one.
Watching for some real good confirmation.
For now though , a push to 1.6400 would give a better confluence situation for me.
(Charts attached)
That pound move last night was my runner for the month though. On a risk of 28 pips, it's so far turned out 300. Trade was based on the daily BUOVB with an entry off the hourly pin at support.
.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #46,099
- Oct 15, 2009 8:04am Oct 15, 2009 8:04am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Yes sir, it turned out to be a solid trade...
I'm also surprised at the eur/gbp having busted through the previous bar highs and support that quick. This is on watch list for the weeklies now.
- #46,100
- Oct 15, 2009 8:10am Oct 15, 2009 8:10am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts
Well , Got the pullback situation I wanted to see. ...Kind of.
As you can see from my chart, though, not exactly clean-cut with the trendlines on this one.
Watching for real good confirmation. For now though , a push to 1.6400 would give a better confluence situation for me.
(Charts attached)
Niiiice.
1.64 is actually my target for this trade now too. Funny how that works out eh? It also holds the 365.
Other than that, I'm not really seeing anything too solid. I'm excited for how these weeklies will close though. Some are looking juicy if we stay as I'm expecting us to stay.
I'm not sure which one will be hotter in that area, the gbp/usd or gbp/jpy. If we do get that push up, it'll take the other straight with it. I gotta get off here, I'm getting too excited and that IS a bad thing while trading.
I dream, therefore I become.