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AUD/USD

  • #6,561
  • Oct 14, 2009 9:24am Oct 14, 2009 9:24am
Quoting thadakman
Ideal situation...

USD sells off this week and makes 1 last minute spike to the downside after the FOMC on Wednesday... if that happens, I'm going Long USD with a big position (short EUR, AUD, NZD, etc... should all work out if this happens)...

If that happens, it shoud be able to run pretty good until Thurs/Friday or even possibly be the official start of a USD long trend.
So far, this is setting up great! If the USD spikes up during the initial FOMC announcement, this trade set up will be invalidated for me though.
  • #6,562
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:27am Oct 14, 2009 11:27am
I had a very boring day wit AUD/USD so far...Been waiting since morning to close my shorts at 9120 & 9100 with some pips taking out of it but its stuck around 9125-9140 pretty much whole day!!

Well there is this FOMC thing coming in couple of hours so lets see if it retraces back to 9100 or not before the close of day today!!
  • #6,563
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:52am Oct 14, 2009 11:52am
Wow, it has become a coin toss.
Attached Image
  • #6,564
  • Oct 14, 2009 1:15pm Oct 14, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting thadakman
So far, this is setting up great! If the USD spikes up during the initial FOMC announcement, this trade set up will be invalidated for me though.
Okay, was a somewhat muted response compared to last month, but the Criteria was met... USD Long for the rest of the week! But I'll make sure to lock in profits along the way and set a stop loss above the highs of that spike.
  • #6,565
  • Oct 14, 2009 1:32pm Oct 14, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting thadakman
Okay, was a somewhat muted response compared to last month, but the Criteria was met... USD Long for the rest of the week! But I'll make sure to lock in profits along the way and set a stop loss above the highs of that spike.
hmmm...., that would work for me - will see.
  • #6,566
  • Oct 14, 2009 1:48pm Oct 14, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting thadakman
Okay, was a somewhat muted response compared to last month, but the Criteria was met... USD Long for the rest of the week! But I'll make sure to lock in profits along the way and set a stop loss above the highs of that spike.
Okay, EUR is under pre-FOMC levels now (I used EUR as my guage on these kind of trades); we have confirmation now! But, as we all know, nothing is guaranteed and anything can happen in the world of Forex... Good luck everyone!

Just have to keep an eye on the DOW now for breaks above 10,000 again, it'll keep the USD down if that happens.
  • #6,567
  • Oct 14, 2009 4:22pm Oct 14, 2009 4:22pm
A/U is close to a breakout here at .9156 if it has the strength.
  • #6,568
  • Oct 14, 2009 4:54pm Oct 14, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting thadakman
Okay, EUR is under pre-FOMC levels now (I used EUR as my guage on these kind of trades); we have confirmation now! But, as we all know, nothing is guaranteed and anything can happen in the world of Forex... Good luck everyone!

Just have to keep an eye on the DOW now for breaks above 10,000 again, it'll keep the USD down if that happens.
Well, the set-up was good and it was looking promising, if EUR breaks over that FOMC spike most of my Long USD trades will have to be terminated early for a small loss... that Business PMI out of New Zealand sure didn't help, NZD just popped 50 pips...

I'm still going to hold my long USD/CHF position though if the other ones get stopped out.

Dow should bounce in and out of 10,000 for a little while, I really don't see it rallying too much higher, at least this week... 10,300 seems to be the next break out point though.
  • #6,569
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:00pm Oct 14, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting Pak Tiger
I had a very boring day wit AUD/USD so far...Been waiting since morning to close my shorts at 9120 & 9100 with some pips taking out of it but its stuck around 9125-9140 pretty much whole day!!

Well there is this FOMC thing coming in couple of hours so lets see if it retraces back to 9100 or not before the close of day today!!
I would close my shorts and go long from here. RBA governer Mr. Steven uncle is going to deliver a speech soon, which will lift the aussie close to 92, if not more.
  • #6,570
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:22pm Oct 14, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting puks
I would close my shorts and go long from here. RBA governer Mr. Steven uncle is going to deliver a speech soon, which will lift the aussie close to 92, if not more.
what comes up got to go down....its overdue... below .9000 this week
  • #6,571
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:53pm Oct 14, 2009 6:53pm
9150 cracked ouch! ouch!
  • #6,572
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:01pm Oct 14, 2009 7:01pm
No signs of turning just yet for me. I've added MACD to this chart and it looks even more bearish than just with the RSI. 75.00 or thereabouts anyone?

Retail trader sentiment this evening is still short according to FXCM and this report was generated before FOMC minutes. I don't think we've seen capitulation yet either so I won't be shorting. I'm still long from yesterday.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.50 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.79 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.4% higher than yesterday and 5.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 6.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.3% stronger than yesterday and 3.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

USDX 8 Hour Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-8HOUR-15OCT.PNG Size: 84 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #6,573
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:11pm Oct 14, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting jyndrus
what comes up got to go down....its overdue... below .9000 this week
You want under 0.9000? Better hope for a real bad earnings reaction from Goldman Sachs tomorrow.
  • #6,574
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:12pm Oct 14, 2009 7:12pm
Another new high... Why fight the trend?
History is written by the victors.
  • #6,575
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:13pm Oct 14, 2009 7:13pm
break above 7450 will add more long


http://img02.imagefra.me/img/img02/2...gm_04958a0.png
  • #6,576
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:20pm Oct 14, 2009 7:20pm
2pips away baby
  • #6,577
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:37pm Oct 14, 2009 7:37pm
you are not to short the breakout are you?

http://img03.imagefra.me/img/img03/2...fm_ed21fe5.png

what about you already long nzd/usd at around 0.7400?

7400/9150= 1.2364

7400/9200= ?

what the aud/nzd cross exhibit? and what price? ready to go long?
  • #6,578
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:42pm Oct 14, 2009 7:42pm
short aud/usd 0.9184 got problem with that?
  • #6,579
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:43pm Oct 14, 2009 7:43pm
0.9184/0.7397=1.2415 aud/nzd syn short
  • #6,580
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:44pm Oct 14, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting puks
I would close my shorts and go long from here. RBA governer Mr. Steven uncle is going to deliver a speech soon, which will lift the aussie close to 92, if not more.

How true - now let's see if it hits .92...
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