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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #6,381
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:34pm Oct 14, 2009 6:34pm
Quoting Naws
That's exactly what happens to me sometimes, an SR line can look like a solid brick wall in your head, especially when everyone starts yelling double top and reversal.

Of course that's not true and it has been difficult to get away from that mindset but just constantly reminding myself of that has helped.

Also try to not keep any preconceived mindset as to where price might go, this helps to keep the mind clear.

About AUDJPY, I don't know and I don't care whether its a double top or if it will break. All I know right now is why I should not...
Good lad, Naws - a "No Trade" is just as good as a profitable trade.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,382
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:40pm Oct 14, 2009 6:40pm
Quoting strat
Good, but don't just stop there.

What does it now tell you? Does it mean anything? Does it mean more to you than just a green candle? Where is that candle in relation to the others around it? Where is it relative to inter - day resistance?

Start stepping up your game, Arthur otherwise you are going to be stuck in a rut
Well most importantly it shows that buyers overpowered the sellers to break the TL, this is not surprising since we had that huge BUOB yesterday. Buyers are strong right now but we have several levels of resistance up ahead. I know that there is no reason to trade right now so I move on until PA is more clear.
  • #6,383
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:53pm Oct 14, 2009 6:53pm
Quoting AstonDan
Thank you Strat. I will try to keep this as brief as I can as I’m sure a lot of people will relate, and I just want to give the Cliff notes. Funnily enough, we’re approaching my one year anniversary of when I first considered trading and opened a spread bet account (27th October), so I suppose now’s as good a time as any for a recap.

On October 28th 2008 I started spreadbetting, punting on anything and everything with less than no clue. After about a month or so I discovered that I could play the currency market at night as they didn’t close like...
Thanks for the post Dan, its good to see others doing well.

I wanted to ask how your trading changed as you went from a demo to a live account? Did it become more difficult or did you manage it well?

I am also coming up on a year trading but I am still on a demo and deciding whether I am getting as good a learning experience as I would if I had a live account.
  • #6,384
  • Oct 14, 2009 8:00pm Oct 14, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting Naws
I see a lot of new members posting here lately If you want to be registered on the path, please send me an email to [email protected] with your name and location.
Hi,what do you mean 'registered on the path'? Is it different to registering for being a member of this thread and posting?

Pandu
  • #6,385
  • Oct 14, 2009 8:06pm Oct 14, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting strat
Each candle has a tale to tell....
Strat, very well said. After reading thousands of charts and putting in countless trades based on their patterns, one starts to get a gut feel for the market. And like you, I see in my mind the buyers and sellers behind the candles. Slowly one develops gut feel. Gut feel is nothing but the supercomputer between our ears doing its job in the background and letting us know the results. But as you ended, this does not just happen. One must know the basics, the foundations have to become second nature.

Great insight.

Pandu
  • #6,386
  • Oct 14, 2009 8:47pm Oct 14, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting AstonDan
Thank you Strat. I will try to keep this as brief as I can as I’m sure a lot of people will relate, and I just want to give the Cliff notes. Funnily enough, we’re approaching my one year anniversary of when I first considered trading and opened a spread bet account (27th October), so I suppose now’s as good a time as any for a recap.

On October 28th 2008 I started spreadbetting, punting on anything and everything with less than no clue. After about a month or so I discovered that I could play the currency market at night as they didn’t close like...
nice story Dan, but one thing i want to carify, you said you dont use stops?
  • #6,387
  • Oct 14, 2009 9:11pm Oct 14, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting strat
Hi Craig, if you may, could you post your chart for CHFJPY with SR lines with it? TF= Weekly

So, I would like to compare my charts with you pros

Craig,

Looks like you have just been upgraded! Congratulations Sparky!

Thanks strat but no where near pro yet!

I need to prove it with some real green first.

Feels good to see the light at the end of the tunnel now I just have to make it to the other end without getting ran over by an 18 wheeler!

I'm still at work right now been playing with wires all day again for 12 hrs posting right now from my iPhone. Will be a good day when I don't have to say that anymore
  • #6,388
  • Oct 14, 2009 9:51pm Oct 14, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting Naws
Well most importantly it shows that buyers overpowered the sellers to break the TL, this is not surprising since we had that huge BUOB yesterday. Buyers are strong right now but we have several levels of resistance up ahead. I know that there is no reason to trade right now so I move on until PA is more clear.

Ahhhhh.....indeed.....not just on the daily either. That was the givaway despite the talk of resistance and double tops.
  • #6,389
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:46pm Oct 14, 2009 11:46pm
Quoting strat
Yes and,...
Thanks strat .. I'm still a learner and will always be a learner ...
Great pips to you and everyone in this thread. Keep it up
  • #6,390
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:56pm Oct 14, 2009 11:56pm
Is cable actually over that big fat line?...Glory be!
  • #6,391
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:35am Oct 15, 2009 12:35am
This is what I see at the moment.
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  • #6,392
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:37am Oct 15, 2009 12:37am
Worth following, IMO.
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  • #6,393
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:40am Oct 15, 2009 12:40am
Does it continue to behave?
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  • #6,394
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:54am Oct 15, 2009 12:54am
It took more than a month to breach 1.4880 from previous SR. It may not take that long to get 1.5400, if history repeats itself.
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  • #6,395
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:03am Oct 15, 2009 1:03am
Gents (and ladies), it's been an interesting hour or so reading the massive missive repository. Appears to be as much an extended discussion about overcoming individual/personal psychological limitations as it is about actually planning the trade and trading the plan.

Not wanting to be too provocative on the first date, however I'm still curious to know, how is it that so many folks are able to "trade" on demo for such an extended period of time believing that they're gaining useful experience. I used a demo long enough to learn the ins-and-outs of MT4, but within 3 weeks I was live with real skin in the game. Darwin at work?

I've had some pretty harsh drawdowns I'm unashamed to report, but I'm treating it as the cost of gaining the cruel hard feedback direct from the real world that's necessary to really learn (pain has a way of sharpening the mind & senses). Talk about an MBA from the school of hard knocks...! IMHO, trading a demo account is the same as going duck hunting or playing golf on a Wii. Until you've smelled the grass, felt the wind in your face and tasted your own sweat in the heat of the moment, ...well I'll leave the rest of the analogy to you.

And on a final thought, I'd like to believe that everyone here has the exact same objective - make pips. So in that spirit I'd like to close.

Cheers,
AB (a.k.a. http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...ic109553_2.gif )

P.S. I've sent off an e-mail to the prescribed address in order to be included in the communiques that go out.
  • #6,396
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:49am Oct 15, 2009 1:49am
Daily & Weekly charts attached.

Long Term: From the weekly chart we see that cable is in a long-term downtrend. We are currently in a major correction of that downtrend. This downtrend has corrected upto almost 50% of the drop from 2.116 to 1.3500. The exact 50% level is 1.7331, while the recent weekly top was 1.7041. If one takes the immediate prior swing high as the reference point for the Fib, the 50% level is at 1.6830. This correction has broken its uptrend line and could be forming a top or going into a sideways range. 1.5700 has emerged as a significant weekly support.

On the daily chart, yesterday's price action has broken the downtrend of the last 4 weeks (last swing high on 11/9), but not the downtrend line from the bigger picture, which is the downtrend from 1.70 that started on 5 August. Near term, I see the GBPUSD in an indecisive range. It will test the recent strong resistance at 1.61 - 1.6120. A break of that will lead to a test of 1.62 and 1.6320 beyond. A failure of 1.6120 brings back a test of 1.57.

So what to do? At this stage, the best thing to do is stand aside if you are not already in a long trade. Wait for price action at 1.6120 and 1.6320 and decide at that time. The best trade will be a short at one of these levels if the levels hold.

What do folks think of this analysis? Agree, disagree, or other insights?

Pandu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #6,397
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:27am Oct 15, 2009 3:27am
Quoting chanak
Daily & Weekly charts attached.

Wait for price action at 1.6120 and 1.6320 and decide at that time. The best trade will be a short at one of these levels if the levels hold....
GBP already breached 1.62 today soon after I posted above.
  • #6,398
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:18am Oct 15, 2009 4:18am
I had couple of SLs today. On GBPUSD there were 2 valid short signals, SS on 30.9 and BEOB on 9.10, both were stopped out today. 1.6100 was strong S/R area for couple of months unfortunately it was broken.
I was stooped out on AUDJPY as well, weekly BEOB from 82 level that is also 50% fib ret also did not work out. I think I should stop use these bars before I wipe out my account completely.
alter
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,399
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:18am Oct 15, 2009 4:18am
BOSS.
While BOSS is bearish the current bar climbed above BOSS 20, meaning momentum of the downtrend is limited. If tomorrow closes UP it will leave us with a nice Weekly BUOB that bounced from obvious SR. First target is the next obvious Weekly SR around ~1.66.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly_gbp.png Size: 21 KB


Daily.
Here it is clear how the Weekly Resistance level was broken. Price climbed above 20, Daily uptrend gains momentum. What we also see is a confluence of that level with Daily 20 and Weekly 20. The best play (for me) would be a retest of this confluence level with bullish PA first target ~1.66.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Conclusion:
It is still a supposition at this point until it closes tomorrow, I am mentioning it because I see it as a possible good range trade (traded off the Daily of course) and because I would like to know your feedback regarding my reasoning.

Cheers!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,400
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:29am Oct 15, 2009 4:29am
Quoting strat
One thing and one very important thing I missed pointing out on Dan’s post is that Dan has something no-one can teach – PERSEVERANCE & DETERMINATION...
No need to say sorry Strat! I enjoy and learn more, much more when you bollock me - must be the Mil trg methods that I respond to best.

I have to admit that I have come across new found freedoms since my last bollocking for reading too much market related 'guff'

Bloomey happened to be on this morning when I got up and there was this talking head on there telling people how he 'knew' the market was going to retrace to the 71% level that markets always retrace to after deep falls!

I actually started laughing at the guy and switched the TV off. Taleb said in his book 'The Black Swan' about ignoring the news and only reading newspapers to catch up on gossip. At the time I didn't understand him as I thought I needed to know everything about the markets and why they went up, down, reacted to news etc. Now I can 'see' what Taleb and Strat have been saying all along. - You don't need to know what will/could happen next as there are so many variables it's too difficult to understand. Just trade the charts.

My case in point was / is the FTSE 100 this year. Many times I have read about the lack of fundamentals in the market and why it will continue it's Bear market drop very soon etc etc. I had a bad-directional bias based not on the chart but what I thought I knew!! Many times on this thread I tried to pick a top. Folly!! So, all in all I have missed out on a huge equity rally by not reading the charts.

This light bulb moment really hit me after Strat's last telling off. As hard as it may seem, the less you know, the better (for being a chartist).

I don't read papers anymore, or hardly any financial web sites as I'm now not interested - I have found, to my detriment, that it conflicts with my technical analysis. I read some top rules from futures traders that I was sent last week; the same rules kept appearing time and time again - "Manage your risk, have a plan, stick to that plan in ALL market conditions and never fight the trend"

It seems so simple that it's hard to believe in Dr Joe, but take it from me it's the stuff of legends. Buy as long as it keeps going up and sell as long as it keeps going down. Those that try and pick tops and bottoms will blow their accounts trying and are still trading with their dominant emotion - GREED.
Trade less and become more profitable!
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