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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #6,341
  • Oct 14, 2009 2:43am Oct 14, 2009 2:43am
Quoting CrudeCraig
If i am understanding you correctly you placed a sell order at the close of yesterdays bar?? (See attached chart)

If this is correct, this is NOT what is being taught on this thread.

If i am wrong please post a chart to show your thinking behind this trade as i can see no STRESS FREE trade on this chart.
Craig i placed the GJ trade this morning (Aussie Time), after yesterdays close, PA was showing a solid SR at 143.20... i agree its not exactly stress free and maybe i should have waited but it worked out as a profitable trade anyway.
  • #6,342
  • Oct 14, 2009 3:02am Oct 14, 2009 3:02am
Below is my D1 chart for CHFJPY

Daily has create LH and LL. Immediate trend on chfjpy is bearish with LH and LL as well. Price meet resistance at daily 50. IF today's bar can close below daily 20 and weekly 20, which also means a close below my SR @ 87.26, then it will be a BEOB or DHLC.

Will look for a 1st TP around 86.00issh, which is also somewhere around the boss 50.

Comments are welcome

Thanks
Sean
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy d1.gif Size: 22 KB
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,343
  • Oct 14, 2009 4:48am Oct 14, 2009 4:48am
Quoting Grizzly
The chart on that page is incorrect: numbered candles are NOT Engulfing ones. This is what an engulfing candle looks like - http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs32.asp

When Open (Close) of the Engulfing candle EQUALS Close (Open) of the "engulfed" candle, that is NOT an Engulfing pattern.
Guys, Lets not split hairs. BUOB or BUEB are but one of the indicators of trend reversal. A slight difference in the data providers times, or the session times you choose can make the difference between one and the other. The lesson is that we look at multiple signals from price action to make our decisions, and overall it is unlikely that this definitional difference will make much of a difference in real life.
  • #6,344
  • Oct 14, 2009 4:57am Oct 14, 2009 4:57am
Quoting chanak
Guys, Lets not split hairs...
Well put. I'm not one for referencing past posts but i seem to remember a lot of discussion from early members and a very succinct point from Blackeagle that every bar/candle tells its own story. Does it reject highs or lows? Does it reject a low and close above the previous days high etc etc.

Each candle has a tale to tell.

With no disrespect intended, approaching the currency market with such a definitive mindset on what constitutes a BEEB, BUEB etc etc is akin to placing space invaders and is an easy way out.

Don't just look at a bar and catagorise it; try to read between the lines.

Just my two cents.

Dan
  • #6,345
  • Oct 14, 2009 5:19am Oct 14, 2009 5:19am
hello,

is it real shooting star? closed the long position. waiting to see what will the pair do at .9450
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-10-14daily.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #6,346
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:56am Oct 14, 2009 6:56am
Quoting BaliuxXx
hello,

is it real shooting star? closed the long position. waiting to see what will the pair do at .9450
My data feed shows it is a real shooting star and very close to 0.9450. It is wise to close long positions and wait for retracement to 0.9080. If not, watch for 0.9450 break to have another ride on the trend with PA (based on teachings here). Hope this helps.
  • #6,347
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:07am Oct 14, 2009 7:07am
Hello Strat and all,

Here is my view on USDCAD.

BOSS.
Weekly trend is down again, the market moved below 20. Also if you zoom out it is clear that the BIG BOSS is down.
Note the important SR level that just got broken by the current bar.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.png Size: 20 KB


Worker.
Daily trend is clearly down, below 20 too. The kind of action I am looking for is a more decisive break then a retest of the broken SR level of the Weekly. And if it gives a bearish PA I will enter short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.png Size: 23 KB


Cheers!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,348
  • Oct 14, 2009 7:58am Oct 14, 2009 7:58am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Craig, if you may, could you post your chart for CHFJPY with SR lines with it? TF= Weekly.

Am starting to pay more attention to SR lines for my trading. Don't trade into support and resistance, it's something precious that I learnt here.

So, I would like to compare my charts with you pros and see how's my SR placement.

Below is my chart.

Thanks
Sean

Here you go Dab,


Just remember some of your lines are really close, when we get up to the Weekly these can be zones of 100 or more pips (PPZ's)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy101409.png Size: 51 KB
  • #6,349
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:12am Oct 14, 2009 10:12am
Quoting strat
Look once and for all, if you took the liberty to read the posts after that, you will see where I said I was incorrect and then correctly explained the difference between the two.

I have no problem at all being corrected when I am wrong - my problem is people coming on to this thread to disrupt it.

Now, get over it and lets move on to important things like taking money out of the forex market!
I think so,lets move on to more important things like taking money from fx mkt. and to finish the discussion here is the STEVE NISON own words(the father of japnese candle stick patterns) about engulfing pattern:


There are three criteria for an engulfing pattern:

1. The market has to be in a clearly definable uptrend or downtrend,

even if the trend is short term.

2. Two candlesticks comprise the engulfing pattern. The second real

body must engulf the prior real body (it need not engulf the shadows).
3. The second real body of the engulfing pattern should be the opposite color of the first real body. (The exception to this rule is if the first real body of the engulfing pattern is so small it is almost a doji (or is a doji).
Thus, after an extended downtrend, a tiny white real body engulfed by a very large white real body could be a bottom reversal.
In an uptrend, a minute black real body enveloped by a very large black real body could be a bearish reversal pattern).
The closest analogy to the Japanese candlestick engulfing pattern is


the

Western reversal day. A Western reversal day occurs when,
during an uptrend (or downtrend), a new high (or low) is made with prices closing under (or above) the prior day's close.
You will discover that the engulfing pattern may give reversal signals not available with the Western reversal day. This may allow you to get a jump on those who use traditional reversal days as a reversal signal.
Some factors that would increase the likelihood that an engulfing pattern would be an important reversal indicator would be:


1. If the first day of the engulfing pattern has a very small real body and the second day has a very long real body. This would reflect a dissipation of the prior trend's force and then an increase in force behind the new move.

2. If the engulfing pattern appears after a protracted or very fast move.
A protracted trend increases the chance that potential buyers are already long. In this instance, there may be less of a supply of new

longs in order to keep the market moving up. A fast move makes the market overextended and vulnerable to profit taking.


3. If there is heavy volume on the second real body of the engulfing

pattern. This could be a blow off (volume using candlestick charts is discussed in Chapter 15).
  • #6,350
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:52am Oct 14, 2009 10:52am
Quoting Cosmo
Hi GBPJPY has bounced off 143.20 for the forth time .. i have placed a short here with a stop at 143.30... see how we go!!

Glenn
Hi GBPJPY has bounced off 143.20 for the forth time .. i have placed a short here with a stop at 143.30... see how we go!!

Glenn, please explain your logic for going short. Even with my rampant imagination, I can’t find a reason.

The BIG BOSS has found support at psycho 139

This is confirmed with stronger support on the BOSS

The Worker is holding support at a higher level of psycho 141.

This means we have a 200 pip support level from 141 to 139.

There is NOTHING here from PASR to take any action either long or short.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,351
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:54am Oct 14, 2009 10:54am
Quoting rockk
I think so,lets move on to more important things like taking money from fx mkt. and to finish the discussion here is the STEVE NISON own words(the father of japnese candle stick patterns) about engulfing pattern:


There are three criteria for an engulfing pattern:

1. The market has to be in a clearly definable uptrend or downtrend,

[FONT=Times...
PLEASE, the discussion was already FINISHED until you resurrected it again.

GET OVER IT & MOVE ON!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,352
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:15am Oct 14, 2009 11:15am
Quoting luqmanz
I've been watching this thread silently ... such a great thread.
Anyone here watching Fiber ?

I got an order filled at 1.4850 .. going to take profit some at 1.500 while leaving 1 portion to ride up to 1.53 (long term target). (with SL will be moved to break even once it hits 1.5)

1.5300 because of the Weekly support turn to resistance and psycho number.
1.5000 because of the psycho number + resistance in the daily charts.

Anyone else in this trade.
Yes and,

luqmanz,

Thank you for joining us – I hope you stay with us as we share the same SIMPLE trading philosophies.

Your recent long EURUSD trades are an example of Dr. Joe in his finest hour although many readers will have difficulty in the reasons for your trades which are SIMPLY:

EURUSD is in a LONG trend

EURUSD just recently broke key resistance on all 3 time frames

We look forward to your further insights.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,353
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:19am Oct 14, 2009 11:19am
Quoting Brendon
Hey everyone,

I'm new here, (Just registered) but have been following this thread for quite a while. (And read most but not all of this thread, and pretty much everything I can find regarding S/R PA trend trading).
Have been looking at GBP/USD, Prices seem to have hit resistance on the down trend line @ 1.5982. (also at 50% Fib retrace). I'm thinking it'd be a good time to go short.
Anyone here agree with my outlook ?

Regards
Brendon
Yes as long as you know where support is and therefore when to protect your position (or get out)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,354
  • Edited 11:34am Oct 14, 2009 11:19am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Here you go Dab,


Just remember some of your lines are really close, when we get up to the Weekly these can be zones of 100 or more pips (PPZ's)
Thanks Craig. By the way, I intentionally draw some lines close to each other, to indicate that's a congested area which simply means I won't trade when market is near that area.

Anyway, thanks for the chart. Will look at it straight away now

-EDIT-
Just finished looking at your chart Craig. Don't you consider drawing any SR in between 91.00 and 85.00 ??? I switch to Line Chart and see that price closed/touched several times in 87.20issh area. Why don't you consider that as a SR?

Thanks
Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,355
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:21am Oct 14, 2009 11:21am
Quoting chanak
Your analysis agrees with mine too, but to be really stress free we should wait for the daily candle to close. There is still a chance it may pierce through the TL and close above it, in which case a short is dangerous at this level.
On the other hand if it bounces off the TL and turns down, a re-test of 1.5730 is very likely and also a break of 1.57 becomes more likely.

Pandu
Your analysis agrees with mine too, but to be really stress free we should wait for the daily candle to close. There is still a chance it may pierce through the TL and close above it, in which case a short is dangerous at this level.
On the other hand if it bounces off the TL and turns down, a re-test of 1.5730 is very likely and also a break of 1.57 becomes more likely.

Very good, Pandu, especially:

free we should wait for the daily candle to close. There is still a chance it may pierce through the TL and close above it, in which case a short is dangerous at this level.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,356
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:28am Oct 14, 2009 11:28am
Hi Strat,

1st of all thanks for the reply for my question regarding trading into congested area. I guess the answer is clear for me, I would sit out of the market whenever it reaches an congested area, even if it's with very tempting PASR.

You mentioned that it's frustrating for trend traders when it comes to congested area. That sounds not-stress-free, and I'm definitely a trend trader with strat's method. So I will just have to hold onto my discipline and patience

Thanks for enlightening me Strat.

Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,357
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:29am Oct 14, 2009 11:29am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Craig, if you may, could you post your chart for CHFJPY with SR lines with it? TF= Weekly.

Am starting to pay more attention to SR lines for my trading. Don't trade into support and resistance, it's something precious that I learnt here.

So, I would like to compare my charts with you pros and see how's my SR placement.

Below is my chart.

Thanks
Sean
Hi Craig, if you may, could you post your chart for CHFJPY with SR lines with it? TF= Weekly

So, I would like to compare my charts with you pros

Craig,

Looks like you have just been upgraded! Congratulations Sparky!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,358
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:44am Oct 14, 2009 11:44am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Strat,

1st of all thanks for the reply for my question regarding trading into congested area. I guess the answer is clear for me, I would sit out of the market whenever it reaches an congested area, even if it's with very tempting PASR.

You mentioned that it's frustrating for trend traders when it comes to congested area. That sounds not-stress-free, and I'm definitely a trend trader with strat's method. So I will just have to hold onto my discipline and patience

Thanks for enlightening me Strat.

Sean
Sean,

Don’t make the mistake of “labeling” yourself as a “trend trader”. While I am first and foremost a trend trader, I am also a trader. In other words, if the opportunity presents itself, I will trade it.

Many times I will take a quick “in and out, shake it all about”, ATM trade when everything lines up. If you go back to the JPY pairs around July 10th I think it was, everything lined up and I jumped in with both feet for a quick ATM trade. As the trades progressed, I quickly recognized a change to a strong trend and held all my trades until August 4th. So, keep an open mind.

Most of the time and especially at price changes, we don’t know whether we are moving into a trend or congestion and can only take what the market gives us.

In the case of USDCAD’s 500 pip “congestion”, this is a very tradable congestion especially when we take our history lesson.

However, you have to be “comfortable” in your trading style so just let it evolve – remember, you have the rest of your life to perfect your style.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,359
  • Oct 14, 2009 12:16pm Oct 14, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting Dabestone
Thanks Craig. By the way, I intentionally draw some lines close to each other, to indicate that's a congested area which simply means I won't trade when market is near that area.

Anyway, thanks for the chart. Will look at it straight away now

-EDIT-
Just finished looking at your chart Craig. Don't you consider drawing any SR in between 91.00 and 85.00 ??? I switch to Line Chart and see that price closed/touched several times in 87.20issh area. Why don't you consider that as a SR?

Thanks
Sean
Just finished looking at your chart Craig. Don't you consider drawing any SR in between 91.00 and 85.00 ??? I switch to Line Chart and see that price closed/touched several times in 87.20issh area. Why don't you consider that as a SR?

Sean,

Don’t get too hung up on specific prices. Remember, unless you have the same broker and therefore data, as Craig, you will have slightly different values.

Also, we ALL interpret SR differently. It depends on your “definition” and what YOU are looking for. There are many successful PASR traders who only identify the tops and bottoms of MAJOR swings. Equally, there are many who only identify those levels which show an equal amount of above and below bounces. Equally, there are many who only identify congestion areas. Equally, there are many who combine ALL the above and more.

It might sound like confusion but I can tell you that I use different levels for different time frames. My BOSS trades use different SR levels than my Worker SR levels because I trade each time frame slightly different. If I was to, heaven forbid, trade H4, I would also use different SR levels.

It really all comes down to your trading style so experiment with different ideas and levels and find what YOU are comfortable using.

Blackeagle did an excellent post on SR level identification so please read this again and study it very carefully for it will provide you, and others reading this, a very solid base from which to develop your own style.

If anyone has this post to hand, please kindly post it again.

Naws, is it possible to put Blackeagle’s post on SR levels in the Index?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy.gif Size: 35 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,360
  • Oct 14, 2009 12:22pm Oct 14, 2009 12:22pm
Took me 424 pages of hard work and analyzing to catch up with ya all

You all dont know who the hell Iam but I know you all very well..

Ps.
Strat I sent lance my personal infos but no reply yet.. Im gettin nervous after 424 pages.. must read and learn moreee moree
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