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Ichimoku forever

  • #4,921
  • Oct 12, 2009 11:56am Oct 12, 2009 11:56am
Quoting kharvell
Why does everyone in this thread have to have a signal to trade? Is it not possible to ascertain a trend and enter at a good price, thus forgoing any sort of signals?

Does anyone realize what signals are? Just mathematical equation based lines based on live price that sometimes cross each other or make certain patterns. I challenge anyone to tell me, what is the true significance of signals?


Good luck,

Kevin
This is my first post, but perhaps I can answer your challenge.

My understanding is that signals are important because they help take emotion out of trading. This is especially true for new traders. Its great if you are able to trade without them and still be a consistent trader. However, I have found it very difficult to trade consistently without them.

Perhaps this is a crutch, but I know that many of the great trend traders have completely automated systems and trade only when their computers give them a signal. If you have a system that has been tested rigorously, then you can have confidence that the signals it produces will make money for you over the long term.

Though I like the idea of you're way of trading, Kevin, at this point in my trading career I believe it allows to much room for emotional and judgmental errors.

farmerellis
  • #4,922
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:03pm Oct 12, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting Bull

Point 1: A Bearish Divergence Bar;
Point 2: Open a short position (as sinner do);
Point 3: Break a Down Fractal and Open a new position (as Williams do);
Point 4: A new break Down Fractal, new position opened;
Point 5: UP Fractal = I move my SL at this level.
Point 6: UP DB = you can exit on the open of the next bar;
Point 7: I close all position at these level (as you see my SL at point 5).

Exit on point 6 or 7 it's your option, I don't exit on point 6 because the candle don't close above the Tenkan sen .
Ok I understand Bull, it is a kind of Dow theory but do you use a bearish divergence bar only in a bearish trend ?
  • #4,923
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:25pm Oct 12, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting Thierry89
Ok I understand Bull, it is a kind of Dow theory but do you use a bearish divergence bar only in a bearish trend ?
Hi Thierry, yes, I'm using DB following the trend, as you can see on my example the DB occur below the Kumo and for the Ichi System it's so clear to identify the Trend.

Always it safe trade following the trend. And if you add a position following the rules you'll max. your profits.

That I do is open the first position with a full lot, and all add position with 0.5.

I'll post more examples, or if you want we can follow any new trade that you want
  • #4,924
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:25pm Oct 12, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting kharvell
Hi red,

Thanks for saying hi Great question, as losing is always important, because it teaches lessons, cheesy but true. Had two losses last week, basically because I moved my S/L up a little too soon when the trade moved up in my favor, but did not quite hit my T/P. Unfortunately in both cases, my S/L was BARELY hit, so I was picking good S/L numbers (based on ichimoku flat lines), just a victim of forex.

Good luck,

Kevin
Hey Kevin

I like your price action angle....that has always seemed to work with me too.

How about posting up an example of one of your trades showing us how you got in and out and the exact reasons why......please

This would be helpful
  • #4,925
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:33pm Oct 12, 2009 12:33pm
Hey guys

A lot going on in here at the moment, need to get my head round this new addition, got a night to myself tonight so I think Its just me and my macbook tonight

Also I am going to try and learn kevins system as I used to follow his thread and I belive he has nailed itchi too.

Kevin could you post some charts on a past setup exactly how you took it, I think this would help me a lot

Thanks
  • #4,926
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:36pm Oct 12, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting Bull
Hi Thierry, yes, I'm using DB following the trend, as you can see on my example the DB occur below the Kumo and for the Ichi System it's so clear to identify the Trend.

Always it safe trade following the trend. And if you add a position following the rules you'll max. your profits.

That I do is open the first position with a full lot, and all add position with 0.5.

I'll post more examples, or if you want we can follow any new trade that you want
Hi Bull
The Bill Williams fractal is placed at an arbitrary point above or below the candle isn't it? It's simply the indicator spacing the fractal so it can be viewed. Do you actually use the fractal or should it be the low of the candle that the fractal appears on?

So far, we have seen:
- vanilla flavour ichi trading longer term
- vanilla flavour ichi trading shorter term TFs
- cloud breakouts
- CS trendline breaks and re-entries in conjunction with signals
- fractal/divergence candles plus ichi
- simple S&R in conjunction with the kumo

That's a lot for people to get their heads round on this thread
  • #4,927
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:38pm Oct 12, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting ab1
Hey Kevin

I like your price action angle....that has always seemed to work with me too.

How about posting up an example of one of your trades showing us how you got in and out and the exact reasons why......please

This would be helpful
Hello ab1,

Thanks for the nice words. Oanda only keeps your trades visible for so long, so the only trade I have to show you is the one I had left over from last week that hit its T/P whilst I slept last night.

Set order October 8 (On light blue vertical line; light blue box). Set this order because flattish future kumo lines (just after pink vertical line). Kumo flat lines are your best support/resistance. Trade triggered October 9 (Just after pink vertical line; light blue up arrow). Old trade I had stopped out there, just barely. T/P triggered today for roughly 100 pips (Just after green vertical line).

Hope this helps, I'll probably post most of my trades here in the future..
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  • #4,928
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:49pm Oct 12, 2009 12:49pm
Ok cool thanks kevin
  • #4,929
  • Edited 1:11pm Oct 12, 2009 12:53pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting kharvell
Hello ab1,

Thanks for the nice words....
Ok Kevin thats interesting,

So your showing here that because you saw a massive support & resistance area on the Kumo on H4. you expected price to bounce off that upwards...ok get that....what was your TP based on ?

So based on that you must be looking to go short on the EURJPY daily ?

oh by the way its not a trick question...just interested..

Cheers
  • #4,930
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:55pm Oct 12, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting vic_elc
EUR USD on daily chart
Hello Vic. Please can you explain your trades or the entries you made on the circled areas of your chart. You know some of us are not Gurus like you.

Thank you.
  • #4,931
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:31pm Oct 12, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting kharvell
Why does everyone in this thread have to have a signal to trade?...
Hello Kevin

Always nice to hear words from experts like you , we simply use the signal to guide us in the market, you might have the ability to feel the price action but most of us still don't have this gift, so we lean on the signal to guide us through this crazy moves , the signals we use are build on the PA

a chart without any indicators is very good and you can make millions using it but others might lose millions from the plain chart

the signals are simply a visual effect added to the chart to help you determine the important info any trader needs
Kumo >> Trend
Ts+Ks Cross >>> with whom is the power
Flats lines >>> S/R levels

Divergence candles + Ichimoku will help a lot of people around us to feel the PA and decide which R/S level to use as an entry.

see the picture without Ichimoku , very hard to know what trend is going on and what is the price doing
adding ichimoku on the PA made w very simple and strong visual guide .
the fractal or the candle Divergence are another added visual component to show where we are supposed to jump again with this trend

still simple still to the point and more clear and guided
what do you think ??
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  • #4,932
  • Edited 2:08pm Oct 12, 2009 1:42pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting ab1


Ok Kevin thats interesting,

So your showing here that because you saw a massive support & resistance area on the Kumo on H4. you expected price to bounce off that upwards...ok get that....what was your TP based on ?

So based on that you must be looking to go short on the EURJPY daily ?

oh by the way its not a trick question...just interested..

Cheers
Hi ab1,

Glad I'm helping. My TP for that last trade was based on reasonable high's and what my S/L is. I always try to keep my risk/reward at least 1:1 and usually not better than 1:2, but 1:3 if you're lucky and have a promising set-up. So for instance, in this particular trade, my S/L was only 50 pips, my T/P had better be at least 50 pips. I had a good target to shoot for because 1.4800 has been a tough cookie to crack for EUR/USD. (As you can see it is moving away from 1.4800 to my order that I've talked about previously, and I will be entering at a good price WITH the trend). Other targets could be other Ichimoku flat lines.

Shorting EUR/JPY would not be the worst trade I've ever seen; due to the very long, flat Daily Kumo(indicating very strong resistance) and the thick future Bear Kumo on the daily(indicates strong bear trend). However, my 3-hour chart is not very bearish looking to support the daily. On the contrary, it is very bullish looking as far as the ichimoku signs (Chikou span above price, bull cloud, bull TS/KS lines). In my opinion no trade, but if you want to dabble a little money, like I said it wouldn't be the worst. Just set a short order at the very flat Kumo line, and set a reasonable stop; see what happens. To me, The 3-hour chart indicates what could happen in this week, and the daily depicts what could happen by next week or this month. I prefer both to agree. As I say, I now only trade EUR/USD, so take this all with a grain of salt.
  • #4,933
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:58pm Oct 12, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting vic_elc
Hello Kevin

still simple still to the point and more clear and guided
what do you think ??
Vic,

This is an excellent post, and thank you for addressing me so kindly. I really am happy to see all this interest in the ichimoku. I do not claim to have special powers; what I do is so easy and simple. My main point with all this signal putting down that I do is that you are waiting on something that *might* happen. Basically, your above mentioned formula is great, without the TS-KS cross and divergent candles are more acceptable but still I think you could throw them out. All you need is to know the trend (what everyone is doing) and to get it at a better price (lower than it is now, usually flat lines make good purchase points).

I always try to think of it like I am buying the latest fad (In forex this is the trend). As everyone knows, the fad always increases in value (or trend mainly goes one way), so the better price you can get, the better it is for your profits.

As I say, to each his own, and most assuredly after today, I shall bury the hatchet.

Take care,

Kevin
  • #4,934
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:04pm Oct 12, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting kharvell
I now only trade EUR/USD
Kevin, the Ichimoku trend is clearly bullish in Daily frame but what do you think about the price testing 1.4800 resistance ?
Double top with a possible reversal trend ?
  • #4,935
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:07pm Oct 12, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting Thierry89
Kevin, the Ichimoku trend is clearly bullish in Daily frame but what do you think about the price testing 1.4800 resistance ?
Double top with a possible reversal trend ?
EUR/USD is at a crossroads. I'm no fortune teller, I don't know what's going to happen. I do know I'm going to keep buying 50-100 pips away from 1.4800, as many times as it is tested
  • #4,936
  • Edited 4:13pm Oct 12, 2009 2:12pm | Edited 4:13pm
Kharvell

Presumably trading close to the kumo, you get a higher trade size as well as the SL is much closer to your entry?
  • #4,937
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:53pm Oct 12, 2009 2:53pm
You, kumo warriors, said that a bullish divergence bar has a lower low than the 5 previous bar.
I know my USDCAD example is not a valid pattern into the additionnal Ichimoku strategy but Is it a bullish divergence bar or not ?
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  • #4,938
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:03pm Oct 12, 2009 3:03pm
Yes I think it is. And in this case you would probably use this bullish divergence strictly to exit your short position. You wouldn't enter this long since it is below the Kumo. And then 9hrs later there is a bearish divergence and you would use it to re-enter your position. That's the way I see it. I could be wrong too.

Quoting Thierry89
You, kumo warriors, said that a bullish divergence bar has a lower low than the 5 previous bar.
I know my USDCAD example is not a valid pattern into the additionnal Ichimoku strategy but Is it a bullish divergence bar or not ?
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  • #4,939
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:06pm Oct 12, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting Thierry89
You, kumo warriors, said that a bullish divergence bar has a lower low than the 5 previous bar.
I know my USDCAD example is not a valid pattern into the additionnal Ichimoku strategy but Is it a bullish divergence bar or not ?
Yes it is... Per Sinner's definition..

Here is an indicator from Sinner's Thread that will hi-lite them for you...
But remember it is not valid until the candle closes.....
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #PH#CandleDivergence03.ex4   3 KB | 640 downloads
File Type: mq4 #PH#CandleDivergence03.mq4   2 KB | 737 downloads
Attitude can reflect outcome in life and trading!
  • #4,940
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:09pm Oct 12, 2009 3:09pm
You also have another Bull DB 7 candles later and a Bear DB 9 candles after...
Attitude can reflect outcome in life and trading!
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