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  • #6,241
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:21am Oct 11, 2009 11:21am
Quoting GreatYves
I hate to drop by a thread being in the 6000's post. Not being able to read the whole of it, but i did read true the websit describing the most important points....
Mon ami, it sounds to me like you are in a death spiral. You want the end result without putting in the effort. Everyone that has tried this, and many on this thread, have gone bust! If you want to be serious at something you have to put in all the effort.

“”Not being able to read the whole of it, but i did read true the website describing the most important points.””

Why can’t you read all of it? Have you got a reading disorder?

What and where are the most important points? The whole thread is important if you wish to succeed.

“”Having crushed all my real (underfunded) account”” – and you will do the same with the next one and the one after that UNTIL you accept you need to go the beginning of The Path of Learning.

“”I need some tips and encouragement to go daily.””

The biggest TIP anyone on here can and will give you is – GO TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PATH OF LEARNING – READ & UNDERSTAND EACH AND EVERY POST UNTIL YOU GET TO POST # 6236

“”Others that know strat method may respond.””

Hopefully they will tell you to put in the hard work they did by - GOING TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PATH OF LEARNING – READING & UNDERSTANDING EACH AND EVERY POST UNTIL YOU GET TO POST # 6236

“”I plan on quadrupling my demo 3 sub-accounts before going back live again since i want to be certain that my trading method is really working.””

Demo trading only proves technical skills – it does not exercise the 95% that dooms us to failure. Demo trading will only accelerate the cleansing of a REAL $ account.

“”So next time i deposit it's gonna be substantial enough to make a living out of it immediately.””

This is your DEATH SPIRAL – I will send you one of my account numbers to save you the anguish and torture which is sure to follow this remark.

“”I tried many like harmonic trading and elliot wave and box trades and renko, because any MA method i found was bad in ranging period.””

This is because you are driven and motivated by GREED!

“”I want to stop taking discretionary trades and be sure that i found a really good method but nothing i found so far is bulletproof against the trend-range problem...””

Well you have found the proven method BUT do you have the PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE to:

GO TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PATH OF LEARNING – READ & UNDERSTAND EACH AND EVERY POST UNTIL YOU GET TO POST # 6236

I doubt it – you want everything NOW!

“”I don't expect you give me the holly grail as i know it doesn't exist””

Oh yes it does! You will find it on here but only if you:

GO TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PATH OF LEARNING – READ & UNDERSTAND EACH AND EVERY POST UNTIL YOU GET TO POST # 6236

“”just some honest tips as to how you proceed””

The biggest TIP anyone on here can and will give you is – GO TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PATH OF LEARNING – READ & UNDERSTAND EACH AND EVERY POST UNTIL YOU GET TO POST # 6236

“”Sorry for my bad english, it's not my first language as i am french-canadian..!””

Your English is very good – much better than my high school French – however, it is not your command of the English language that is YOUR problem.

Nicoal (elitejets) is English – Canadian and that didn’t stop her from GOING TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PATH OF LEARNING – READING & UNDERSTANDING EACH AND EVERY POST UNTIL YOU GET TO POST # 6236 and, I might add, becoming a VERY GOOD TRADER!

Bon chance, mon ami!

“”1% a day compound to 1329% a year/(260 trading days).””

This is your DOUBLE DEATH SPIRAL!

GREED, GREED & MORE GREED!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,242
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:32am Oct 11, 2009 11:32am
Quoting alter
I took trade 1 and it hit my SL as well as SS 4 days before trade 1 on your chart so I did not take any other trade from that iffy level.
Alter, your SL should have been above the next level of resistance as I have said so many times on this thread. Putting it above the doji which preceded bar # 1 was not the resistance.

You could also have put your SL at least 20 pips above the doji which I do many times to try and avoid stop runs.

The bottom line, Alter is:

Use the correct levels for your trades

AND

Give your trades ROOM TO BREATHE

The market is just like us, it breathes in and out (up and down).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,243
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:36am Oct 11, 2009 11:36am
Quoting GreatYves
Never traded naked, i have kids around!!...
“”I have this psychological problem where i can't resolve to go daily with both entry and exit!””

NO, NO, NO

This is YOUR problem:

“”I have this psychological problem””
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,244
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:37am Oct 11, 2009 11:37am
Quoting Sinan
I have my first open position on this pair so I thought it would be a good idea to post my analysis.

BIG BOSS - 20 (80.59) and 50 (86.79) indicate a range bound (consolidating) pair - flat lines.

BOSS - Found support at the 20 which has given us significant upward momentum. 20 and 50 indicate an upward trend. Broken a key resistance level (79.95) that has been giving us problems. Stopped toward the next major level of resistance at 81.40.

WORKER - 20 and 50 agree with BIG BOSS and show a consolidating market. TL from early Feb was broken...
Very sound analysis, Sinan, good job!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,245
  • Oct 11, 2009 12:01pm Oct 11, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting strat
“”I have this psychological problem where i can't resolve to go daily with both entry and exit!””

NO, NO, NO

This is YOUR problem:

“”I have this psychological problem””
Understood, i'll do my homework and read the whole thread, Thanks for responding anyway. I'll be back!
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #6,246
  • Oct 11, 2009 7:33pm Oct 11, 2009 7:33pm
Sunday bars on the JPY crosses are looking good!
  • #6,247
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:27pm Oct 11, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Sunday bars on the JPY crosses are looking good!
Is the sunday bar trying to tell us something or is the TL just a coincidence?

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  • #6,248
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:36pm Oct 11, 2009 10:36pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Sunday bars on the JPY crosses are looking good!

Are you going to place orders for any? The bond hammers on some pairs might be a good place to get in the trend after the breakouts like on CADJPY but we don't have any retrace to make a good hammer.
  • #6,249
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:29pm Oct 11, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting Naws
Are you going to place orders for any? The bond hammers on some pairs might be a good place to get in the trend after the breakouts like on CADJPY but we don't have any retrace to make a good hammer.
I am already in AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY from the hammers formed on Oct 2nd.

The Sunday bar on USD/JPY is not enough i don't think to make a trade off of as a retrace to the TL since it was a gap that filled and not price reaching down to test it.

Strat has mentioned a few times trading Sunday bars but has not really discussed it yet. So for now im just watching.

I may take some profit on my positions if the Sunday bars are broken though, just because we are real close to recent resistance that was broken and could very well get tested as new support.
  • #6,250
  • Edited 3:37am Oct 12, 2009 3:25am | Edited 3:37am
Hi Strat and team,

I've a question regarding trading into congestion area when nice price action presents. Below is a chart of USD/CAD for example. Note that it's only an example for my question, and I'm not trading it at the meantime.

I've a SR line at 1.0300. And we can see on the left side of the chart, there's a congested area between 1.0300 and 1.0000. OK, here's my question:

IF price breaks through 1.0300 and close below it. Then nice price action shows up. ISIT OKAY TO ENTER THE MARKET THEN? OR SHOULD WE JUST SIT OUT OF THE ACTION? Is it consider risky due to the fact that we are trading into a congested area. We should always avoid this kinda setups?

Thanks
Sean
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,251
  • Oct 12, 2009 8:46am Oct 12, 2009 8:46am
Quoting GreatYves
Never traded naked, i have kids around!! Hehehe.. I tried only with fibs, on an hourly chart. That was a killer for me. Could not make it profitable. Was using the 38.2 instead of the 61.8-76.4.. Right now The most sexy i do get is elliot wave and fibs, macd and envelope, but my method is crap, i only made some gain because i was lucky enough to catch some trend, usually already in wave 5 or C. Trying to trade 4hr chart on an EOD basis. I have this psychological problem where i can't resolve to go daily with both entry and exit! I usually exit a...
Hello GY,

Forgive me for butting in. I don’t normally jump in like this, but if you truly have kids around then you owe it to them (and to yourself) to stop everything else that you are doing and think about where you are and where you want to go.

If you really want to learn how to trade properly (and profitably) you have arrived at the right place.
With young kids around, you are probably not too old yourself. In any case, you have the whole of the rest of your life is stretched out in front of you. Right now, the only thing you a lot of, is time. You have infinite amount of it available to you right now. Consider well, how you are going to spend it.

I would strongly recommend that you take Strat’s advice, Go back to the first post read it and don’t go on until you understand it. Read it as many times as necessary until you understand the message. Ask questions until it all becomes clear. Read it again.

There are a whole host of people on this thread who will be kind enough to respond to any of your questions (even the stupid ones) they present as a very forgiving and helpful bunch of people.

I only wish that I had found them years ago when it could have made a difference to my life. Do not waste this serendipitous find in your haste to riches and fame.

Good Trading,

Mike
  • #6,252
  • Oct 12, 2009 8:59am Oct 12, 2009 8:59am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Strat and team,



IF price breaks through 1.0300 and close below it. Then nice price action shows up. ISIT OKAY TO ENTER THE MARKET THEN? OR SHOULD WE JUST SIT OUT OF THE ACTION? Is it consider risky due to the fact that we are trading into a congested area. We should always avoid this kinda setups?

Thanks
Sean
Team
I have been lurking/reading the posts from the start before posting but I happen to have the same concern Sean indicated in his post above. May I dare to suggest that on the Boss the congestion area extends to 0.9800 area so there might be a few pips in here if PA supports the trade.
  • #6,253
  • Oct 12, 2009 9:29am Oct 12, 2009 9:29am
Quoting CrudeCraig
I am already in AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY from the hammers formed on Oct 2nd.

The Sunday bar on USD/JPY is not enough i don't think to make a trade off of as a retrace to the TL since it was a gap that filled and not price reaching down to test it.

Strat has mentioned a few times trading Sunday bars but has not really discussed it yet. So for now im just watching.

I may take some profit on my positions if the Sunday bars are broken though, just because we are real close to recent resistance that was broken and could very well get tested as new support....
""I am already in AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY from the hammers formed on Oct 2nd.

The Sunday bar on USD/JPY is not enough i don't think to make a trade off of as a retrace to the TL since it was a gap that filled and not price reaching down to test it.""


Excellent, Craig - you're setting a good example of taking the teachings and putting them in to practice. Well done!


Looks like a re-test for USDJPY.


Sunday bars are either good or bad - there is no middle ground with them - they are for advanced trading techniques.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,254
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:29am Oct 12, 2009 10:29am
Quoting strat
There is too much attention to DSRI which is distracting from the prime focus of trading Hammers, Shooting Stars, BEOBs, BEEBs, BUOBs and BUEBs to the 1st level of S&R.

For now, just use conventional trend lines.

DSRI Demand & Supply Lines are a subject in themselves and will be discussed in detail in more advanced trading techniques.
Hi Strat,

Great thread, thanks a lot for running it.

De-lurking for a moment. If "E" is Engulfing" and "O" is "Outside", aren't they the same?.. Or should one of them be "Piercing"?
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,255
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:51am Oct 12, 2009 10:51am
Quoting Blackeagle
How many times can a chart give such entry opportunities in 3 weeks? All you should do is to follow the trend and ride on it with PA in correct places.
Well, that depends how you define a trend. Price was moving sideways for quite a while... I cannot see how we could know in real time that we should enter exactly where the arrows 1 and 2 are.
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,256
  • Oct 12, 2009 11:00am Oct 12, 2009 11:00am
Quoting GreatYves
I hate to drop by a thread being in the 6000's post. Not being able to read the whole of it, but i did read true the websit describing the most important points. But i feel your way of trading is fiting my lifestyle. I live in the EST time zone, and have a busy life. I am in my forth years of trading now. Having crushed all my real (underfunded) account and i am now swing trading Elliot wave signals on a demo. But i find i am leaving aside good signals more then i should. I have primarly been a trend follower type of guys, but my problem was as...
Welcome GreatYves.

I have read several other trading system. So many that i became confuse as to wich to use. I tried many like harmonic trading and elliot wave and box trades and renko, because any MA method i found was bad in ranging period. So i got to mix everything for unsatisfiying results.

Like you, I tried every trading system, method, etc I could find on FF and other places and I never became consistantly profitable with any of them. My main mistakes were relying on indicators, and trading small timeframes.

And I mean I really worked hard at it but I just couldn't get it all together.

I have made more progress in understanding how to trade profitably in the last three months than I have in the last two years. That's because I'm starting to understand price action, support/resistance, supply/demand, and other things you will learn here in the Path of Learning. I'm not ready to fire my boss by any stretch of the imagination, but I know I'm on the right track now.

I want to stop taking discretionary trades and be sure that i found a really good method but nothing i found so far is bulletproof against the trend-range problem..

Once you get good at PASR you will see how you can even take profits from a ranging market condition as well as a trend.

Quit wasting time and money and stressing yourself out by daytrading. You can be more successful and enjoy trading more if you take the time to learn this method.

If you have questions there are lots of experienced traders here that are willing to help you if you put in the time and effort to learn.

Dave
  • #6,257
  • Oct 12, 2009 11:51am Oct 12, 2009 11:51am
Quoting Forex007
Hi Strat,

Great thread, thanks a lot for running it.

De-lurking for a moment. If "E" is Engulfing" and "O" is "Outside", aren't they the same?.. Or should one of them be "Piercing"?
An Engulfing bar is completely different to an Outside bar.

Seems to me like you need to be on The Path of Learning instead of lurking!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,258
  • Oct 12, 2009 11:57am Oct 12, 2009 11:57am
Quoting Forex007
Well, that depends how you define a trend. Price was moving sideways for quite a while... I cannot see how we could know in real time that we should enter exactly where the arrows 1 and 2 are.
A trend is either a trend or not a trend - there is no other definition needed.

Had you been on The Path of Learning you would have known that these arrows were a re-test of resistance and very good entries.

Now quit lurking and get on The Path of Learning!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,259
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:45pm Oct 12, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Strat and team,

I've a question regarding trading into congestion area when nice price action presents. Below is a chart of USD/CAD for example. Note that it's only an example for my question, and I'm not trading it at the meantime.

I've a SR line at 1.0300. And we can see on the left side of the chart, there's a congested area between 1.0300 and 1.0000. OK, here's my question:

IF price breaks through 1.0300 and close below it. Then nice price action shows up. ISIT OKAY TO ENTER THE MARKET THEN? OR SHOULD WE JUST SIT OUT OF THE ACTION?...
“”IF price breaks through 1.0300 and close below it. Then nice price action shows up. ISIT OKAY TO ENTER THE MARKET THEN? OR SHOULD WE JUST SIT OUT OF THE ACTION? Is it consider risky due to the fact that we are trading into a congested area. We should always avoid this kinda setups?””

“”jacanpipster
May I dare to suggest that on the Boss the congestion area extends to 0.9800 area so there might be a few pips in here if PA supports the trade.””

Thanks, Sean, an interesting question, the answer of course depends on your trading style

Let’s start by correctly identifying this congestion area. In round numbers it is from 0.9800 to 1.0300 and lasts 8 months.

This then is a box, 500 pips x 8 months and represents a very solid support for where price is now.

Price is beyond the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retrace and well entrenched in a downtrend. So, the Italian Ice Cream man, the BOSS and the BIG BOSS are all in agreement with the downtrend.

Next, we take a history lesson and learn that price has rebounded on this box so, if history repeats itself, it is fair to say we should expect some sort of bounce at this level.

A “bounce” at this level needs watching carefully since USDCAD has a history of reversing trends with “V” tops and bottoms. Week ending November 9th, 2007 is a good example of this.

To answer your question, “”IS IT OKAY TO ENTER THE MARKET THEN? OR SHOULD WE JUST SIT OUT OF THE ACTION? Is it consider risky due to the fact that we are trading into a congested area.””, depends on your tolerance for risk and profit.

Knowing that you will be entering a proven area of congestion tells you that you have to change your trading style from that of a trend trader to that of a swing trader. These congestion areas are a constant source of frustration for traders who enjoy trading trends for the long haul and need a switch in mentality to handle the frustration.

Since this is a 500 pip trading range, it is definitely worth trading it with the above provisos. However, as history has shown, it is not a straight line 500 pip ride and careful trade management is required.

The good news is that as PASR traders we can handle ALL types of market scenarios – we just need to be more flexible and ready to dump our date at a moment’s notice if she starts to “two time” us!

For those not experienced in trading congestion/consolidation/ranging, the simplest and lowest risk way to do this is to divide the 500 pip box into further S&R levels and then just do one trade at a time from one level of SR down to the next etc.

I’m not sure this is the answer you were looking for so, if not, let me know and I’ll try again.

While we are here on a congested area of USDCAD, make note of what ALWAYS follows congestion – a HUGE MOVE (2740 pips on this one).

Think of this as compressing a spring – the stored energy in a spring eventually overcomes its restraining forces and expands rapidly. The longer the storage time, the greater the expansion.

This is where PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE are required (again, surprise, surprise!)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,260
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:30pm Oct 12, 2009 4:30pm
Quote

Update :

BOSS - The shooting star is no more and we close with a break of the supply line (shows the importance of waiting until the close). Very bullish going into next week.

WORKER - Cup and handle continuation pattern confirmed with a breakout. I have not studied the reliability of pattern targets but the completed cup with handle pattern indicates to me an initial target to 0.96 on the breakout.

GBP looks like it will be taking...

WORKER - Pushing ahead...next area of concern is the 0.95 psycho which gave us a nice double top at the start of the year. I don't really have too much to add on todays PA.

What has me a little worried is the hammer on GBPUSD + lots of GBP data over the next few days...we may see some sharp moves. Any thoughts on that hammer?
Hope is not a trading strategy
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