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4% A Day Forever

  • #381
  • Oct 9, 2009 7:09pm Oct 9, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Not Quite,

A person can still be a discretionary trader and implement proper money management, all of my longer term systems are discretionary with proper money management.
Thanks for clearing that up Jig. I think you misunderstood what I meant. I was just saying that you would have to have amazing entry/exit skills to succeed without money management. I completely agree that money management is crucial, and even in a discretionary system risk to return and proper position sizing should be considered on every trade taken.

Thanks
  • #382
  • Oct 9, 2009 7:12pm Oct 9, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting The Fool
Well, of course, you are welcome to take an interest and contribute however you like, and I appreciate your sentiment.
Thanks! I understand where you are coming from a little better now. I completely agree you need a system that fits you. Finding rules that suit your style and personality are important, and that definitely takes time. For example, I personally don't believe in averaging down BUT, if the overall risk to your account is taken into consideration I think it can work well with some strategies. If you can get a profitable set of rules you are comfortable with and then follow them with discipline, you will be a great trader.

Good luck and I'll check in from time to time.
  • #383
  • Oct 9, 2009 7:15pm Oct 9, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting The Fool
No mate, I rode it out and scored the win. I am a complete failure. But seriously, I am glad to have all the intervention.

Hope things are going good for you.

So although a positive result by luck, technically a bad trade as you'd of possibily kept riding it out.


To busy no time to trade, should have the next week clear to focus on it but we'll see.

You need a sensible reasonibly reliable market gets to X and it's going to keep going against you line in the sand to place your SL.

Mine is M1 200ema, I only take longs above and shorts below, which makes for a easy SL Placement and keeps me vaguely on the trend, find something similar for yourself, and trade out side this are tight SL, ie market gets to new low QUIT!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #384
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:08pm Oct 9, 2009 9:08pm
Hi TheFool

Good to see you are still kicking
You and I suffer similar problems.
I replied to you maybe a month ago and I thought I was on the way with my new found thinking, but alas not quite so.
I solved the problem of adding to winning or losing positions and it is working beautifully. Have a main account and a sub account. Trade a fixed number of contracts. Set your default to this value. Only have enough and a safety amount in the main account to trade this number of contracts. This way you can never average down or up. If you start making money and have enough in your main account to trade twice the default number, then transfer some funds to the sub account so that you can only trade one times the default number.
I have finally accepted this concept.

In the emotion of the moment in trading, I have failed on another main issue and have suffered major losses. I thought I could trade without a physical stop loss. After 13 months, I realize that I invent all sorts of reasons not to take my loss when I should. It has been expensive, but I am now convinced that I need the real stop loss. Sure the market sometimes takes me out and then reverses within a few pips of my stop. So Fu#$%ng what?? It is just another loss and I can reenter again if my original thinking is still correct.
And to boot, I never increase the value of my stop as I calculated a fair value for my stop while I was reasonably rational ( ie not trading ). I reduce the value of my stop if the market starts going my way.
I trade the e/u and have a stop of 9pips and a tp of 15 pips. I will mechanically take smaller losses and smaller profits if I feel the need to, however I am not aiming for the moon on profits and cannot lose too much on the downside.

Best of good fortune in your future trading.

As a side issue, I only follow and read a couple of threads now. I do not read the e/u thread anymore as there is too much number picking out of the air and making of predictions. I like to follow the price action of the market and let that tell me what I think the participants are up to. I have no time for indicators any more. Just my 2 cents worth

regards
emtee
  • #385
  • Oct 9, 2009 10:08pm Oct 9, 2009 10:08pm
Oh really? And enlighten me to why cost averaging is a losers game? Is it because you read it somewhere in some book by a highly acclaimed author, I mean trader or is it because you've experienced it first hand like 95% of losing traders?

Oh educate me great trading master.....

==============================


Quoting Jigsaw
I don't mean to sound like an asshole here, and I assume you are trying to be helpful. But this post is nothing but cliches and psychobabble.

None of the above apply's to trading whatsoever.

You say No stops and position sizing go hand in hand ?

Without stops there is no such thing as position sizing.



huh ?

http://www.turtletrader.com/files/im...udor-jones.jpg

Picture says it all - Losers average losers, Paul Tudor Jones knows good trading
In Charts We Trust!
  • #386
  • Oct 9, 2009 10:09pm Oct 9, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting emtee
Hi TheFool

Good to see you are still kicking
You and I suffer similar problems.


As a side issue, I only follow and read a couple of threads now. I do not read the e/u thread anymore as there is too much number picking out of the air and making of predictions. I like to follow the price action of the market and let that tell me what I think the participants are up to. I have no time for indicators any more. Just my 2 cents worth
Hey emtee!

I'm glad to see you back around here. I thought your concept of entering a trade with max-sized position was interesting when you told me about it & wondered how that would work out for you. I thought the idea was a good one insofar as it would prevent you from adding to a trade, but, on the other hand, I thought you were paying for that remedy with too much risk. The cure worse than the disease, so to speak. I was not sure, but I thought it was going to be tough to make that strategty work out over time. I imagined that you would go down one of the same roads I have been down: you would have trouble cutting short those losers and you would tend to not let your winners run. Now, tell me if I am mis-assuming about how it went for you. But the latter case is a natural tendency that the scalper develops, I believe.

I still like to scalp, but I am making every effort to choose scalps that will pay out with high reward:risk. As PeterCrowns advised in one of his posts, I am trying not to "limit what the market can give me." Notwithstanding how I have described some trades herein where I averaged (some won some nearly sunk me) - I also do typical short tf trades with hard stops. I do some set break-out trades with very low risk:reward - like 2 pip sl & 20 pip tp.

I am too new to this game to get married to a method, though, so I am exploring. I would like to learn as much as I can about position trading. Anyway, it will be cool to hear from you about how trading is going.

Best Regards.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #387
  • Oct 9, 2009 10:17pm Oct 9, 2009 10:17pm
Are you a succesful trader Cbh?


Quoting Cbh123
If you don't have rules, you don't have a system. You want a system where you can break the rules? Why have rules in the first place then? If you aren't going to follow them they aren't your rules anymore. Without rules you are just gambling. I'm not saying discretionary trading can't work; maybe you're so good at reading charts that money management doesn't matter. I don't think there are many (if any) people that are that good though.

Your quote by William Blake should probably read "The fool who persists in his folly will be humbled by the...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #388
  • Oct 9, 2009 10:23pm Oct 9, 2009 10:23pm
Cb,

This is a very good post. I agree with everything you say here...lots of wisdom.


Quoting Cbh123
Thanks! I understand where you are coming from a little better now. I completely agree you need a system that fits you. Finding rules that suit your style and personality are important, and that definitely takes time. For example, I personally don't believe in averaging down BUT, if the overall risk to your account is taken into consideration I think it can work well with some strategies. If you can get a profitable set of rules you are comfortable with and then follow them with discipline, you will be a great trader.

Good luck and I'll check...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #389
  • Oct 9, 2009 10:31pm Oct 9, 2009 10:31pm
Let's run an experiment....

You trade your way, and I'll think outside the box and do it my way....we'll post our results on https://www.myfxbook.com/

We're not looking for fastest gains or biggest results (I know what the outcome will be), but we're looking to test your generic mass thinking theory about no stops, position sizing..and cost averaging

This way, you can prove your system versus my theory in play....and
prove that averaging is for losers...

What do you say Jigsaw? This way, we'll prove to Fool what is possible and what you say isn't....balls in your court.....sorry for the cliche...


Quoting Jigsaw
I don't mean to sound like an asshole here, and I assume you are trying to be helpful. But this post is nothing but cliches and psychobabble.

None of the above apply's to trading whatsoever.

You say No stops and position sizing go hand in hand ?

Without stops there is no such thing as position sizing.



huh ?

http://www.turtletrader.com/files/im...udor-jones.jpg

Picture says it all - Losers average losers, Paul Tudor Jones knows good trading
In Charts We Trust!
  • #390
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:00pm Oct 9, 2009 11:00pm
Quoting X.Oden
Let's run an experiment....

You trade your way, and I'll think outside the box and do it my way....we'll post our results on https://www.myfxbook.com/
lol X. I doubt if Jigsaw will take you up on that but if he does and if you guys want to duke it out here, feel free, just keep it nice.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #391
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:53am Oct 10, 2009 12:53am
Hey man

Hang in there, you got the right ideas. Personally my goal is around 2.5% per day Avg which i usually hit while keeping my risk low...2-2.5% per trade.

I don't like to divulge my strategy, but i can say that it's super simple and if you are running with 70-80% winning trade percentage then that is all you need. Losers will be inevitable, it's just how you read the price action and exit with a smaller lose instead of trying to let it run.

Good luck and keep it up!
  • #392
  • Oct 10, 2009 3:20am Oct 10, 2009 3:20am
let us to figure out how much you get or lost, the more you get ,the much you lost . you risk 50% to get 4% , as same way you lost them. it is half to half ,two way street.

gangbling always gives you happy and tragedy. lol
  • #393
  • Oct 10, 2009 6:32am Oct 10, 2009 6:32am
Hehe I will keep it nice. I'm just tired of these stereotypical bullshitters that learn one method of trading and now its their holy grail where they block their scatoma to any thing else just because some guru they found said so.

Honestly Fool.....there's so much stuff I could show you, but I'm under ND with my client and I can't. All I can say is, your off the wall thinking is what will make you alot of $$$. Don't listen to b.s. conventional wisdom.
Do it your way and follow the beat of your own drummer.

When you trade, whether its scalping or swing, always think compounding......protect your capital at all costs (I showed some methods before) and you'll be ok.

If you protect your capital and not even think about profits, the profits will fall into place....naturally. Do some research on this...intensely. This and compounding your trades is the key.




Quoting The Fool
lol X. I doubt if Jigsaw will take you up on that but if he does and if you guys want to duke it out here, feel free, just keep it nice.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #394
  • Oct 10, 2009 8:28am Oct 10, 2009 8:28am
Quoting X.Oden
Oh really? And enlighten me to why cost averaging is a losers game? Is it because you read it somewhere in some book by a highly acclaimed author, I mean trader or is it because you've experienced it first hand like 95% of losing traders?

Oh educate me great trading master.....

==============================
Your 100% right, Averaging down being a losers game is a MYTH, 1 of the bad ones, a strategy which included averaging down increases your odds on bigger profits hugely, but ofcourse it makes the losers worst.

So it does depend on you being over all able to trade profitably in the first place.


Example :-

Enter Long 1.6100 say, your stop is at 1.5985 so -115pips if hit.
Price moves against you 50pips, direction is favours Long so average down.
Market further weakens, average down again 1.6020 say.

Position is 1.6056 x 3. Max Loss is 213pips so 3x's the bang for 2x's the cost.

Market will do 2 things 1. it'll hit your SL -213.

But 1.6000 support might hold and cold easily run back to 1.6200 say right ??? If so thats +432 pips.

The price is cheaper, the direction is still UP so it's stupid not to take another position, same bang less risk.

The problem is when you average down, on a account that can't take the -213 draw down and then you pull that stop and let it get out of hand, then your account is doomed.

But over all, if you first trade woulda made it eventually your much better off probability wise with averaging down.

Averaging down is about the best strategy out there for making profit.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #395
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:17pm Oct 10, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting Turveyd

But over all, if you first trade woulda made it eventually your much better off probability wise with averaging down.
I dunno, D. - every time I have chased a loser with a big average-down stack I would have been better off taking a quick loss from the original and just reversing the trade direction from the get-go. Maybe less profit ultimately but very much less risk.

There is a strategy there with "averaging down" but I believe it involves having trades running both directions simultaneously or hedging. That way you are always in the market and you are always winning one way or another. Having those positions well undersized relative to margin available would be key. I am just beginning to explore incorporating hedging into my trading toolbox and I don't know what that will be.

Jigsaw was right to ask me what my rules are in regards this strategy and it is true that if I don't have any then I am gambling. Or, given that I am (currently) playing 0.1-lots and fractions thereof, I am experimenting.

Obviously the best thing would be to develop the tools and understanding of the markets to be able to look at some charts, pick the right direction almost all the time, and run with it with minimal risk. Either that or find leprachuan gold.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #396
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:24pm Oct 10, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting X.Oden
Honestly Fool.....there's so much stuff I could show you, but I'm under ND with my client and I can't. All I can say is, your off the wall thinking is what will make you alot of $$$. Don't listen to b.s. conventional wisdom.

Do it your way and follow the beat of your own drummer.
X., given my personality, it probably couldn't be any other way.

Is there a hedging strategy - found here on FF or disclosed publically elsewhere - that is in some way similar to your hedging style?

Or, in your opinion, what is a common hedging strategy that you don't use that is worth looking into...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #397
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:26pm Oct 10, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting The Fool
I dunno, D. - every time I have chased a loser with a big average-down stack I would have been better off taking a quick loss from the original and just reversing the trade direction from the get-go. Maybe less profit ultimately but very much less risk.

There is a strategy there with "averaging down" but I believe it involves having trades running both directions simultaneously or hedging. That way you are always in the market and you are always winning one way or another. Having those positions well undersized relative to margin available would...
Well it depends on your method ofcourse, if for instance you aim to be on the current direction like I try to be then you can hold and average down until thats no longer the case.

If your trading counter traders then you have no exit point really to place your stop under so you end up trading on hope while it keeps going against you.

Stop counter trend trading mate in short, this alone will put your win rate up hugely!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #398
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:28pm Oct 10, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting wem33
let us to figure out how much you get or lost, the more you get ,the much you lost . you risk 50% to get 4% , as same way you lost them. it is half to half ,two way street.

gangbling always gives you happy and tragedy. lol
that's a sober and a sobering way to look at it wem33. Thanks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #399
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:32pm Oct 10, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting Turveyd
Stop counter trend trading mate in short, this alone will put your win rate up hugely!!
Yup, good advice. I don't know why I developed that tendency from the beginning.

The trend is my friend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #400
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:36pm Oct 10, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting The Fool
Yup, good advice. I don't know why I developed that tendency from the beginning.

The trend is my friend.

Because picking tops / bottoms after the effect looks easy, so pretty much everyone attempts to trade that way and unless your very very good ( I'm a pro at that and still can't over all profit ) your doomed.

200ema M1 is my main trend indicator, above Longs, Below Shorts easy hey
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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