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4% A Day Forever

  • #361
  • Oct 5, 2009 5:10am Oct 5, 2009 5:10am
Quoting calderone
Just checking in to see how things are going.

I've got full confidence in you.
Hey, I appreciate that. I hope you are getting all you want out of the markets.

I did some scalping off/on since the FO and made about 40 pips. Upped my trade size from last week (to 0.2 lot from 0.1 lot - woohoo!) That helps. Looking for some steady growth under new mm habits & need for those to firm up before I trade larger.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #362
  • Oct 8, 2009 6:41pm Oct 8, 2009 6:41pm
I have been swing trading all week. Vey small trades, nothing larger than 0.1-lot. I am practicing holding on to trades for longer than 5 minutes...for longer than a few days. I can hold onto trades if they are in profit, or not. Time is on my side as long as I am not committing over-sized trades.... I am not giving up scalping but I am going to have a "scalping account" segregated from an account where I will do longer-term trades. In time, I might not need to have this segregation in force, but it will take time to get my brain in shape to think across all time frames, to be able to see the whole enchilada. The time frames are an artifical construct, I know, but it does take practice to think in different tf's and I can do that easier in "separate rooms" so to speak...for now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #363
  • Edited 5:48pm Oct 9, 2009 5:04pm | Edited 5:48pm
myfxbook for this week (still have Asian session on Sunday to add.) I have some open shorts that are running red but they are very small and I am not worried. Will cross that bridge next week.

I traded quite a bit differently this week. Just scalped here and there. Was feeling under the weather much of the week & just did not want to lose much sleep staying up for the best times to scalp. Also had to travel for work. So I just experimented running small trades. Very small - mostly 0.1-lot and less. A few 0.2-lot scalps here and there. Ran these small trades with no stop loss & no stated take-profit level. All on E/U. Thursday spiked against me and at one point I had a trade something like -120 pips. Averaged out of it! A total recapitulation to my bad old self - BUT - position size was well-managed. At worst, I think I saw a 5% drawdown.

This was not an accident. I am not going to want to & maybe not even be able to scalp forever and I am going to have to learn to position trade so I am just doing it and the first lesson is learning how to see those drawdowns & not panic, to have a limit for position sizing that must be obeyed in order to keep the account margin risk low. Still need to explore other aspects for a good approach to position trading, including hedging....

Banked 6.1% for the week - about $375. 288 total pips. 86% good trades. Avg winner was >8 pips & avg. loser was <5 pips. Better.

Shorts still outnumber longs by much.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #364
  • Oct 9, 2009 5:34pm Oct 9, 2009 5:34pm
Fool,

Hi, you remember me....I have sifted through this thread, heavier in the last few posts before the end of the thread.

I have total confidence you will reach your goal. Your ability to hold trades and average them in using small position sizing is key to your survival in the markets. Space them out enough and you will be able to survive most anything the markets can throw at you. The brokers will also leave you alone.

Congratulations on this major accomplishment!

Quoting The Fool
myfxbook for this week (still have Asian session on Sunday to add.) I have some open shorts that are running red but they are very small and I am not worried. Will cross that bridge next week.

I traded quite a bit differently this week. Just scalped here and there. Was feeling under the weather much of the week & just did not want to lose much sleep staying up for the best times to scalp. Also had to travel for work. So I just experimented running small trades. Very small - mostly 0.1-lot and less. A few 0.2-lot scalps here and there. Ran these...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #365
  • Oct 9, 2009 5:37pm Oct 9, 2009 5:37pm
I had just discovered myfxbook from another poster recently. I decided to start a practice account on there earlier this week....you are welcome to follow....I am hoping I can keep up. This account I do not have access to all day, maybe only twice a day or so....but I trade the same methods I do on my live....only with less attention. With my live accounts, I can monitor it on my PDA and my office access..

I invite you to take a look....

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fmc007/fmc/2576
In Charts We Trust!
  • #366
  • Oct 9, 2009 5:41pm Oct 9, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting X.Oden


Congratulations on this major accomplishment!
Hi X., thanks for the encouragement. I am sure somebody will pipe up & say, "Oh, dude, trading with no stop loss again? When you gonna learn? You is doomed!" And averaging down? That's what blew big holes in my accounts b4! But position sizing is the key & I hope I have learned that by now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #367
  • Oct 9, 2009 5:42pm Oct 9, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting X.Oden
I invite you to take a look....

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fmc007/fmc/2576
Hey, all winners - gotta like that.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #368
  • Oct 9, 2009 5:50pm Oct 9, 2009 5:50pm
Quoting The Fool
myfxbook for this week (still have Asian session on Sunday to add.) I have some open shorts that are running red but they are very small and I am not worried. Will cross that bridge next week.

I traded quite a bit differently this week. Just scalped here and there. Was feeling under the weather much of the week & just did not want to lose much sleep staying up for the best times to scalp. Also had to travel for work. So I just experimented running small trades. Very small - mostly 0.1-lot and less. A few 0.2-lot scalps here and there. Ran these...
How are your winners above 8 pips, losers below 5 pips, then you have a drawdown of minus 120pips ? 5% drawdown is a huge drawdown.

Have you got strict risk rules for when you try to average out of positions ?
Explain them for me, what is your criteria for closing a losing trade and keeping a trade open to average out of it ?

Hope you don't mind the questions, it's just I am interested in your progress as a trader,

EDIT -

Quoting The Fool
Hi X., thanks for the encouragement. I am sure somebody will pipe up & say, "Oh, dude, trading with no stop loss again? When you gonna learn? You is doomed!" And averaging down? That's what blew big holes in my accounts b4! But position sizing is the key & I hope I have learned that by now.
Thats exactly what I am saying, can you explain your position sizing rules ?
  • #369
  • Oct 9, 2009 5:52pm Oct 9, 2009 5:52pm
It is not an easy feat....I am still learning myself and I also still work a full time job and trade full time (You know this from my presence on the boards )....I am always watching the screens. I honestly do better when I watch the screens less.

No Stops and position sizing go hand in hand......no stops doesn't mean you cannot close your trades out if you've gone too far, but just keep it in control....its easier to come back from a small controllable loss, than a larger one.

I have very bad trading habits that I have learned to control by being more patient....these you must be conscious of. They will destroy your account. But if you are constantly reminding yourself then you'll be alright. Your results look good. Keep it up and be consistent. When you're doing well is the primary time you must remained FOCUSED. Most of the time, that is when all traders relax and think they've beaten the markets....and then suddenly, a slight change or modification to ease the strict rules crumbles the fortress you have built.

STAY FOCUSED!




Quoting The Fool
Hey, all winners - gotta like that.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #370
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:00pm Oct 9, 2009 6:00pm
As your own trader I will say, discard what others say about you or your method of trading. By doing this, you arrive at self discovery. Only you know your thought process...they only see the obvious....they do not see your thoughts.....allow your style of trading to emerge no matter how ridiculous and no matter how many times you fail. Failing is good, it means you are one step closer to getting it right. Without failure, you cannot achieve success. Remember this. Let others poke holes in your system, its ok. This is how you develop a process and create a system and grow it into maturity. Once you do this, you own the system and no one else can take it away from you. Experiment and become creative. Do not be afraid to try different things. Others will knock you down and analyze your technique, but build a thick skin. You need this to become a good trader. Be sure even if your method has flaws and always trust in your own beliefs.....no one elses...this is very important as a trader. Most importantly, be patient and through this, consistency WILL come. Just don't give up and keep going. Keep going...keep going...even if you think its your last dollar....keep going....refine, adjust, retune, but keep going. You'll get there.



Quoting The Fool
Hi X., thanks for the encouragement. I am sure somebody will pipe up & say, "Oh, dude, trading with no stop loss again? When you gonna learn? You is doomed!" And averaging down? That's what blew big holes in my accounts b4! But position sizing is the key & I hope I have learned that by now.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #371
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:08pm Oct 9, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi X., thanks for the encouragement. I am sure somebody will pipe up & say, "Oh, dude, trading with no stop loss again? When you gonna learn? You is doomed!" And averaging down? That's what blew big holes in my accounts b4! But position sizing is the key & I hope I have learned that by now.
Are you serious about becoming a great trader? Your current attitude will prevent you from ever having long term sustained success. It would have been much better for you to have lost that 120 pips, so you could have felt the pain of not using a stop loss. I am not saying this to be rude. I just want to help you change your mindset. If you are shooting for 8 pips.. you need a kill stop just incase the price shoots against you. If you had a stop in at -20.. you STILL could have gotten in (where you averaged in) and MADE 100 pips instead of recovering (with luck) your loss (from pride/stupidity/whatever you choose to call it yourself).

It is completely okay to have a losing trade!! The best traders have them all the time! The worst traders try to avoid them completely, and end up blowing their accounts. I would much rather have a steadily growing account then have the feeling of "being right."

Once again, if this seems harsh it is only because it seems like you need it. I think you are serious about becoming a good trader, and it seems like you understand entrys/exits, etc. But the mental part is even more important, and I hope even if you don't like this post, it helps you in the long run.

Best of luck to you, and I really hope you are successful in your trading efforts. I will continue following your progress, and hope/expect to see great things.
  • #372
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:10pm Oct 9, 2009 6:10pm
Quoting Jigsaw
How are your winners above 8 pips, losers below 5 pips, then you have a drawdown of minus 120pips ? 5% drawdown is a huge drawdown.

Have you got strict risk rules for when you try to average out of positions ?
Explain them for me, what is your criteria for closing a losing trade and keeping a trade open to average out of it ?

Hope you don't mind the questions, it's just I am interested in your progress as a trader,
Hi Jig,

I appreciate your interest and will welcome your criticism especially if it is completely damning.

I did see -120 pips drawdown max but that was on the worst trade out of a position including something like 8-10 trades and the drawdown of about 5% was on the total position. That was on an active position and so was "unrealized P/L". Then it turned and the whole position went black. I know that this trade could have been done better:

a) I could (should?) have exited the trade with a small loss on the first instance of acceptable loss. I could (should?) have used a hard sl to accomplish that. Then I could (should?) have simply caught that 120-pip trendlet in the right direction.

b) Having committed to chasing the trade in the wrong direction, I could have done it better such that the drawdown was less - then I could (should?) have hung on to the entire position all the way back down for greater profit.

The short and honest answer to your question re: strict rules is: no. I am working in that direction though, using very small trades. I know that a common rule and a good one is : "never average down!" Another good one is: "take those small losses!" I am convinced that those are good rules but I am also aware that they are ones that I am going to break. I need a modus operandi that I can survive by even when I break the rules.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #373
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:12pm Oct 9, 2009 6:12pm
Quoting X.Oden
As your own trader I will say, discard what others say about you or your method of trading....
I don't mean to sound like an asshole here, and I assume you are trying to be helpful. But this post is nothing but cliches and psychobabble.

None of the above apply's to trading whatsoever.

You say No stops and position sizing go hand in hand ?

Without stops there is no such thing as position sizing.



huh ?

http://www.turtletrader.com/files/im...udor-jones.jpg

Picture says it all - Losers average losers, Paul Tudor Jones knows good trading
  • #374
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:29pm Oct 9, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting Cbh123
Best of luck to you, and I really hope you are successful in your trading efforts. I will continue following your progress, and hope/expect to see great things.
Thanks, Cbh123. I appreciate what you have conveyed and I can't really argue with any of it. It takes alot of discipline to always do the right thing and I am not the most disciplined guy, I know that. You must have missed my recent posts where I talked about a huge loss on my account - about 60%. Incurred by what? trying to average out of a loser.

I have gotten back on that horse simply to show myself that he can not throw me again. I'm doing that consciously. I did not want to let that defeat haunt me anymore. I don't know if that makes any sense to you but it does to me.

At the same time, I am thinking about money/risk management all the time and I know this is where I need to get it together. It will have to be done in a way that is a part of me, though, and that may not end up looking like the textbook case. See my signature? "If the Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." I am not blind to my true nature.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #375
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:35pm Oct 9, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting The Fool
I am convinced that those are good rules but I am also aware that they are ones that I am going to break. I need a modus operandi that I can survive by even when I break the rules.
If you don't have rules, you don't have a system. You want a system where you can break the rules? Why have rules in the first place then? If you aren't going to follow them they aren't your rules anymore. Without rules you are just gambling. I'm not saying discretionary trading can't work; maybe you're so good at reading charts that money management doesn't matter. I don't think there are many (if any) people that are that good though.

Your quote by William Blake should probably read "The fool who persists in his folly will be humbled by the results, and thereby gain wisdom (hopefully)" I hope you can learn without having to be humbled by Mr. Market.

Please let me know if you would like me not to contribute to your journal. I would understand and I am not trying to be negative, just trying to help you become more profitable.

Cheers
  • #376
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:51pm Oct 9, 2009 6:51pm
Quoting Cbh123
If you don't have rules, you don't have a system. You want a system where you can break the rules? Why have rules in the first place then? If you aren't going to follow them they aren't your rules anymore. Without rules you are just gambling. I'm not saying discretionary trading can't work; maybe you're so good at reading charts that money management doesn't matter. I don't think there are many (if any) people that are that good though.

Please let me know if you would like me not to contribute to your journal. I would understand and I am not trying...
Well, of course, you are welcome to take an interest and contribute however you like, and I appreciate your sentiment.

I'll tell you, though, in case in some weird way you get attached to my case: I have never really done what other people have wanted me to do (for very long) if that meant not being myself. So don't get po'd if I don't quite jump through all the hoops in order, or at all.

Now, I hear what you are saying about "no rules: no system." and I understand that. And I have written up a Trading Plan and I have written down the Rules and all the proper documentation is within reach. But, in my case, and perhaps ultimately in any person's case - the system is me. I have to make trading work for me, like a part of me. I am not saying that strict rules are not necessary, I guess I am only saying that I am going to have to grow into them somehow. That's going to take some time.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #377
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:52pm Oct 9, 2009 6:52pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi Jig,

I appreciate your interest and will welcome your criticism especially if it is completely damning.

I did see -120 pips drawdown max but that was on the worst trade out of a position including something like 8-10 trades and the drawdown of about 5% was on the total position. That was on an active position and so was "unrealized P/L". Then it turned and the whole position went black. I know that this trade could have been done better:

a) I could (should?) have exited the trade with a small loss on the first instance of acceptable loss....
Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to be an ass or critical or whatever. I am merely expressing my opinion and you can take it or leave it. I have enjoyed reading your journey eventhough I knew how it would unfold anyway . . As it's the same journey I took (5% a day was my figure I wanted, so you came in a bit lower at 4% - My Aston Martin was going to be grey as the black was so overdone )

Ah I see so the -120pips was total pips and the -5% was on a few positions, have you rules in place about total risk and correlation ? And how big are your stop losses ? A 5% drawdown is huge relative to the 6% you made for the week. You were also possibly in a bad way correlation wise to have it all turn around into the black.

I am telling you this right now, you are on the right path, don't overcomplicate things. Get rid of averaging down. The Peter Crowns stuff is golden. Usually the simple and obvious stuff is the answer. Theres a lot to be said for a fixed stop of say . . . 10pips + spread on EURUSD and a TP of 50pips. Sure you will lose loads, but if your entry is good enough and you trade with the trend you will win in the long term. Stop viewing it as you vs. the market or "getting back on the horse", as it's not helpful.

Men hate two things: 1) Being wrong and 2) Losing money, by averaging down and refusing to take losses you are refusing to accept either of these things. Trading is not about being creative or . . . Different. If anything trading is about trying to do the obvious thing.

I have yet to see a person make it profitable in the long term with 10pip sl/tps or less. Don't get me wrong I trade the 1minute and less myself intraday. But I am looking for at least 5+RR.

My own main intraday system only wins around 28-33% of the time, sometimes more sometimes less. But I usually average above 10% returns monthly and drawdown is EXTREMELY small considering my entries are only 0.1%.

I am rambling here but there are a few points I want to stress :

I reckon you should implement a fixed SL. Try . . . 2xATR14 is a nice SL, or 10pips + spread on EURUSD.

Start off risking .1% and shoot for 5R, see what the drawdown is like with that. (It's like you are going to be long term trading ala Peter Crowns on the short term charts)

The Drawdown/losses is actually a more important figure than the profits.

Quoting Cbh123
If you don't have rules, you don't have a system. You want a system where you can break the rules? Why have rules in the first place then? If you aren't going to follow them they aren't your rules anymore. Without rules you are just gambling. I'm not saying discretionary trading can't work; maybe you're so good at reading charts that money management doesn't matter. I don't think there are many (if any) people that are that good though.

Your quote by William Blake should probably read "The fool who persists in his folly will be humbled by the...
Not Quite,

A person can still be a discretionary trader and implement proper money management, all of my longer term systems are discretionary with proper money management.
  • #378
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:52pm Oct 9, 2009 6:52pm
You being a bad boy again Mr Fool

So -120pips, but you killed the trade took the loss like a man ?? and it hopefully moved down further which proves short term you made the right decision ??


If so you avoided getting frozen and taking a 50% account hit again, so this is progress


Small steps and all!!

Still trading at a low level so 120pips is nothing to you ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #379
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:59pm Oct 9, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting Turveyd
You being a bad boy again Mr Fool

So -120pips, but you killed the trade took the loss like a man ?? and it hopefully moved down further which proves short term you made the right decision ??


If so you avoided getting frozen and taking a 50% account hit again, so this is progress


Still trading at a low level so 120pips is nothing to you ??
No mate, I rode it out and scored the win. I am a complete failure. But seriously, I am glad to have all the intervention.

Hope things are going good for you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #380
  • Oct 9, 2009 7:08pm Oct 9, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to be an ass or critical or whatever.

I am telling you this right now, you are on the right path, don't overcomplicate things. Get rid of averaging down. The Peter Crowns stuff is golden.

The Drawdown/losses is actually a more important figure than the profits.

Jig, I appreciate your advice. I know I may have slid a little this week but I feel like I am muddling forward. A month or two ago I thought all I would ever need to do was scalp for 5 pip winners. I was encouraged to think differently after reading PC's posts here. I am going to keep stumbling in that direction & it seems you have gone before me in your own way. It sounds like you have made it work for you & I am glad for you. To tell you the truth, I always just assumed that I would succeed at this and only recently have I realized that I might not, that it might take alot of work and pyschological growth. So I am open to any and all advice...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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