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AUD/USD

  • #6,301
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:23am Oct 9, 2009 11:23am
reenter short 9019
  • #6,302
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:25am Oct 9, 2009 11:25am
Quoting ben10
reenter short 9019
the rescue team at 9090 x 5, got to go to bed guys , you all have a very good weekend and good pipping Ciao!!!
  • #6,303
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:26am Oct 9, 2009 11:26am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting ben10
good pipping buddy nice!
thanks ben and shanah8b ...

but its still not completeley finished yet ... i still got some left ... i was hoping between 8860 - 8900 ... but its too slow ...

what do you think the impact gonna be on Monday being holiday in JP and US?
  • #6,304
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:26am Oct 9, 2009 11:26am
Quoting ben10
hey buddy wow thats nice ! thats why i nevr hear from you yeah?

Either tearing my hair out half the time, or the other half sleeping on it

Nah just busy with uni work and stuff
  • #6,305
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:33am Oct 9, 2009 11:33am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting ben10
for the aussie traders ! the exam is on if you pass the car is yours

http://www.cnbccurrencychallenge.com/
dont like Alfaromeo ... its an italian junk ...
  • #6,306
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:37am Oct 9, 2009 11:37am
Quoting G_Man
dont like Alfaromeo ... its an italian junk ...
Come on G_Man, it's not that bad
  • #6,307
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:40am Oct 9, 2009 11:40am
There is a possibility of forming a Double top/ at 1hr chart. it means we might have a short term top
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #6,308
  • Oct 9, 2009 12:17pm Oct 9, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
Come on G_Man, it's not that bad

Well if you win...sell it and use the money on something like an Evo
  • #6,309
  • Oct 9, 2009 4:03pm Oct 9, 2009 4:03pm
An impressive run from 86 which is now parked on the 78.6 Fib line. Next week will be interesting.
Attached Images
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #6,310
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:41pm Oct 9, 2009 6:41pm
Well Im short from an effective price of 0.9025, lets see how the week goes.
  • #6,311
  • Oct 9, 2009 7:59pm Oct 9, 2009 7:59pm
That could also be a bull flag. I'm waiting for either a breakout or breakdown out of this range before going all in.

Quoting shahab8b
There is a possibility of forming a Double top/ at 1hr chart. it means we might have a short term top
  • #6,312
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:54pm Oct 9, 2009 9:54pm
EWI Report :Death of the Dollar, Again: Before You Mourn, See This Chart

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/fu...owchartEWT.gif
from its March 2008 bottom, the U.S. dollar came back to life with a vengeance, soaring in a one-year long winning streak to multi-year highs. In the most current Elliott Wave Theorist (published September 15, 2009), Bob Prechter presents the following close-up of the Dollar Index since that trend-turning bottom.
At a measly 6% bulls, the bearish dollar boat tipped over. The situation today is even more remarkable: The percentage of bulls is lower, at 3-4%, while the dollar's value is higher than the March 2008 level.
It's crucial to understand that markets don't necessarily respond to sentiment extremes immediately. But, such extremes do indicate exhaustion of the trend -- which is usually the opposite of what the mainstream expects.
  • #6,313
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:58pm Oct 9, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
That could also be a bull flag. I'm waiting for either a breakout or breakdown out of this range before going all in.
Hi, yes I know the pattern is not complete yet, that's why I noted "possible",
cheers
  • #6,314
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:55am Oct 10, 2009 12:55am
IMO, next week we'll see new heights for AUD.

while USD got stronger on friday, it's strength wasn't enough for AUD to break below .90 cents mark.

If it had to go down, it would have gone down on Friday... well it didn't.

So combining with all fundamental factors, interest rate hike, resounding economy etc, I am expecting AUD to break through 91 cents by Wednesday.

I am long from .9035 (and I am not saying this coz I am long). My charts simply dont give me reversal signs, daily or weekly.

Lets see what happens.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
  • #6,315
  • Oct 10, 2009 1:35am Oct 10, 2009 1:35am
Quoting puks
IMO, next week we'll see new heights for AUD.

while USD got stronger on friday, it's strength wasn't enough for AUD to break below .90 cents mark.

If it had to go down, it would have gone down on Friday... well it didn't.

So combining with all fundamental factors, interest rate hike, resounding economy etc, I am expecting AUD to break through 91 cents by Wednesday.

I am long from .9035 (and I am not saying this coz I am long)....
Why do you think that if it had to go down it would've gone down on Friday? What if this is just a carefully designed trap to get the masses in the market at the wrong time?

What would you need to see before you see reversal signs?
  • #6,316
  • Oct 10, 2009 2:16am Oct 10, 2009 2:16am
Quoting nwsuccess
Why do you think that if it had to go down it would've gone down on Friday? What if this is just a carefully designed trap to get the masses in the market at the wrong time?

What would you need to see before you see reversal signs?
I trade based on the daily charts and 4H charts. I am not yet getting reversal signals in either of them hence my belief.

It may go down below 90 cents on Monday but that'll be for brief period, IMO.

AUD usually takes a dip on monday/Tuesday before bouncing back strongly for rest of the week. Last Monday, at the open, it went down and it's been going down for previous 4 mondays.

so I am just hoping history be repeated again.

I'll be a strong buyer at 8950, 8875 and 8800, if at all it gets there.
  • #6,317
  • Oct 10, 2009 4:06am Oct 10, 2009 4:06am
0.8700 in 3 weeks.
  • #6,318
  • Edited 12:22pm Oct 10, 2009 7:56am | Edited 12:22pm
here is my outlook for next week we dont have no confirmtion for neither down nor up the only sign i have got is from the dollar index and not solid as of yet and the dip volume on aud is getting weaker(usally on every AUD dip we get a spike in volume) and the unconvicing break of it weekly trend

1- if AUD goes under 9011 and stays under for a few candles it might be heading to 8950

2- a break of 8950 and stays under this pricer level might give us further down side to 8865

3- a break of 8865 with confirmation will lead us to test feb 2009 trend line which stands @ low 87s

4- all of the above will cancel if the prices goes above 9050 and then its 2009 highs @9088

and if we look usd index we might have a double bottom in play but we need confirmation of pentrating throught feb 2009 down trend @76.6 and further above 77.50 to confirm a double bottom

so i going to short AUD with a stoploss above 2009 highs goodluck to all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.gif Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: $ index.gif Size: 32 KB
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #6,319
  • Oct 10, 2009 1:58pm Oct 10, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting nwsuccess
Why do you think that if it had to go down it would've gone down on Friday? What if this is just a carefully designed trap to get the masses in the market at the wrong time?

What would you need to see before you see reversal signs?
Hi ,
Well, I have short positions from .9050 so I might be baised for downside, but technically speaking there is no reversal sign in any timeframe so far, even COT index is not extreme on AUDUSD, it's extreme on EURUSD/USDCHF but not this one,
answering your question, for reversal sign, I'm pretty sure that you know, there should be some classic patterns (Double/triple top/ H&SH ,etc...),
and speaking fo RSI overbought or whatever , it might be corrected just with hanging there for a while,
At the end
“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”George Soros


Peace
  • #6,320
  • Oct 10, 2009 8:51pm Oct 10, 2009 8:51pm
in the last week I often said AUD would have gone down, it went up indeed but I am still with my opinion, a journey to 0,85 - 86 before a new rise would be in the cards

equities are now pricing a very strong recovery, next week many US companies release earnings, and even if positive tones should prevail, a "sell the news" pullback is to expect

gold at 1050 and S&P even above seem really very stretched up to me

in the last two sessions, talks of a 50bp rise during RBA november session gave more fuel to AUD, and less extension to the profit taking action seen on Friday.
I did not even expect a rise in October, so a 50bp rise for next month seems like pure fantasy to me

moreover, RBA on the sell side will limit the upside and give more strenght to the potential pullback I do expect to see soon
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