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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,521
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:33am Oct 8, 2009 2:33am
Hi guys!

May I ask the reasons for Jacko using the 1hr TF to trade of?
  • #9,522
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:33am Oct 8, 2009 2:33am
In Jacko's initial posts, he mentions that he 'keeps an eye on the fundamentals' but his method is first and foremost a technical strategy.

That being said, what is the consensus about the course of action when a major fundamentaly announcment is due, such as tonight's ECB Press Conference?

I'm in long at the moment, currently sitting 130 pips up, with a 100 pip trailing stop loss.
But who knows what will happen at 12.30 AM Friday morning (New Zealand Time). So, can I have a show of hands please?

Who would:

A) Leave 100 pip trailing stop loss in place?
B) Bring stop loss to 50 pip trailing stop?
B) Get out now at 130 pip profit?
C) Get up at midnight and close the trade, hopefully it will have gone up more?
D) Put head under pillow, close eyes and check back 5 hours after the announcement?
  • #9,523
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:00am Oct 8, 2009 3:00am
The biggest hurdle in trading has nothing to do with systems or even money management. Rather it is the constant struggle each trader has with him or her self. Devising a plan is one hell of a lot easier than actually sticking to it.
One facet of this problem, which all traders suffer from at some point, is what I call 'Market Wizard Syndrome'. It's the moment of Zen-like genius which you experience in front of your screens, when you ridiculously allow yourself to believe that you 'know' which direction the market is about to go in. Utter bollocks! Look over at the Aussie Dollar recently. Guess how many 'Market Masters' have been feeling that the market is just about to turn. Then guess how many got it right.
Have a plan.
Stick to it.
Anything else is bullshit.
  • #9,524
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:11am Oct 8, 2009 3:11am
Quoting Lycurgan
In Jacko's initial posts, he mentions that he 'keeps an eye on the fundamentals' but his method is first and foremost a technical strategy.

That being said, what is the consensus about the course of action when a major fundamentaly announcment is due, such as tonight's ECB Press Conference?

I'm in long at the moment, currently sitting 130 pips up, with a 100 pip trailing stop loss.
But who knows what will happen at 12.30 AM Friday morning (New Zealand Time). So, can I have a show of hands please?

Who would:

A) Leave 100 pip trailing stop loss...
My own opinion with the news is just stay out of it's way.
If you leave the position open, then you are basically tossing a coin.
Look at it this way; if you work all week, and then come home on Friday with your pay packet, would you toss a coin to double it or lose it?
  • #9,525
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:20am Oct 8, 2009 3:20am
Quoting Interceptor
My own opinion with the news is just stay out of it's way.
If you leave the position open, then you are basically tossing a coin.
Look at it this way; if you work all week, and then come home on Friday with your pay packet, would you toss a coin to double it or lose it?
Top advice both times i think......................got some good points out of the cable over the last 24 hrs..gave most back backing it down when i knew some news was on.....dbled my possie and bang out on the Lloyds news..
  • #9,526
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:05am Oct 8, 2009 4:05am
Quoting garyfb
I have been following Jackos thread for 6 months now.
He is an incredibly good and successful trader.
I know you have to adapt in this market and he is now using smaller time frames.
But if he is now using 1 hour charts and no longer trend trading, what is the method?
For a five year old it is very simple. Weekly, day, and four our chart, the trend is UP.
Jacko is not using 1 hour charts. I have not seen anywhere in his blog where he is using 1 hour charts.
He is using 4 hour charts and is talking about moving back to Daily charts as the market volatility drops back to normal levels.
  • #9,527
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:11am Oct 8, 2009 4:11am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi guys!

May I ask the reasons for Jacko using the 1hr TF to trade of?
He isn't. He is not using the 1hr timeframe
  • #9,528
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:11am Oct 8, 2009 10:11am
Quoting Trndsurfer
If you checked the 4 hr chart previous to the last trade it was in a southern trend.
Hmmm... I can't see it. Assuming we are still following the original method (i.e. simple left to right analysis of a 300 bar chart) I can't see a southern trend in any way, shape or form. Perhaps I am looking at the chart wrong! If so, perhaps you would be so kind as to post a chart explaining what you mean?

Thanks,

Dan
  • #9,529
  • Oct 8, 2009 1:45pm Oct 8, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting DanUK
Hmmm... I can't see it. Assuming we are still following the original method (i.e. simple left to right analysis of a 300 bar chart) I can't see a southern trend in any way, shape or form. Perhaps I am looking at the chart wrong! If so, perhaps you would be so kind as to post a chart explaining what you mean?

Thanks,

Dan
The 4 hour shows a sideways market ?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,530
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:17pm Oct 8, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting turnip15
The 4 hour shows a sideways market ?
Quoting Trndsurfer
If you checked the 4 hr chart previous to the last trade it was in a southern trend.
Quoting DanUK
Hmmm... I can't see it. Assuming we are still following the original method (i.e. simple left to right analysis of a 300 bar chart) I can't see a southern trend in any way, shape or form. Perhaps I am looking at the chart wrong! If so, perhaps you would be so kind as to post a chart explaining what you mean?

Thanks,

Dan
Good question Dan. I'm in Jacko's private group and I can't see it either. Hopefully Trndsurfer will come back and explain as you requested. From the looks of his post it appears he is in Jacko's group as well. It doesn't seem like all members of his group are on the same page for some reason.

I personally don't see anything wrong with differing opinions. Everyone is trying to be helpful. Still, it may be more helpful if people could post charts with some explanation instead of just making statements. That may be helpful in erasing some of the doubt/questions. I posted a chart from a couple days back in post 9512. I want to post an update but feel I should be fair to turnip15 and Trndsurfer by giving them time to post a chart and explain first. Maybe we all can learn something that way.
  • #9,531
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:36pm Oct 8, 2009 3:36pm
i think they mean the retracement from 23/9 - 2/10.


apropos of nothing, a lot of people seem to be piling on Jacko for one loss making trade!

Quoting RickyRudy
I want to post an update but feel I should be fair to turnip15 and Trndsurfer by giving them time to post a chart and explain first. Maybe we all can learn something that way.
  • #9,532
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:43pm Oct 8, 2009 3:43pm
  •  kean
  • | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: James16group Lifetime Member | 92 Posts
Quoting turnip15
The 4 hour shows a sideways market ?
Hi,
If you zoom out on the 4H chart so that it shows the required 300 bars, you can clearly see that the trend is rising from mid August, the point at which Jacko starts his rising support trend line.
Kean
  • #9,533
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:22pm Oct 8, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting coolshades
i think they mean the retracement from 23/9 - 2/10.


apropos of nothing, a lot of people seem to be piling on Jacko for one loss making trade!
Certainly not a case of 'piling on' Jacko, or anybody else for that matter.
Whether the trade is profitable or a loser is irrelevant.
All that matters is the correct implementation of the strategy, which is proven to be successful over the longer term.
Incorrect application of Jacko's method is, however, to be 'piled on' at every opportunity.
  • #9,534
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:25pm Oct 8, 2009 4:25pm
Quoting kean
Hi,
If you zoom out on the 4H chart so that it shows the required 300 bars, you can clearly see that the trend is rising from mid August, the point at which Jacko starts his rising support trend line.
Kean
Simples!

http://richclark.files.wordpress.com...he_meerkat.jpg
  • #9,535
  • Oct 8, 2009 8:15pm Oct 8, 2009 8:15pm
I've decided to post my charts. I'm thinking that perhaps some people might be confusing retracement with a trend. Feel free to correct me if you think this posts is out in left field.

The first chart, titled "H4 as of 2009-10-08, 5:30 PM, NY Time," is recent as of the date and time indicated in its title. I drew a thick red vertical line identifying the first of 300 candles. Simply move right to the most recent bar to complete the count of 300 candles. Simple so far? Now observe how the chart moves from the lower left corner to the upper right as you read from left to right. Now if that's not enough, I have a rising trend line denoted in dark redish brown. By Jacko's definition of a trend, and many others, this clearly shows bullish trend - at least in my opinion.

The second chart, titled "H4 as of 2009-10-08, 5:34 NY Time...," is a zoomed in version of the previous chart. I can hear some smarty pants saying, "hey but that's not 300 bars!" My answer, I've already shown what 300 bars look like. What I did here was zoom in to get closer to today. We can see from this chart how the candles ride and bounce off the ascending TL to the pip. We also see how they bounce off the 50% fib at 1.4518 as far back as 24 hours before Friday's NFP announcement. I wonder if some people confused the preceding downward correction to be a trend. It wasn't a trend, it was just a retracement. Then look at how the NFP drove the market down to the ascending support TL. If the mighty NFP couldn't get price south of this TL, which held for months, I don't see how anyone can confuse this for anything other than a bull. No not a bear, and not a sideways market. Then watch the candles after the NFP and see how they ran up to where we are now. Of course hindsight is better than foresight the events leading up to NFP and immediately after the NFP left me with no doubt that we were in the midst of a VERY strong bull.

Another thing, notice how the tallest candle from today made a high at 1.4800 then retraced to the 50% fib at 1.4725, then bounced off the descending TL that was previous resistance.

Now if you're in Jacko's private group yet still don't buy anything I've written above, consider what Jacko has been blogging lately. In my opinion he has made clear the current direction of the market as well as its expected direction once he takes a trade. He has also given the reason why he took Friday's trade, which does not contradict his market view.

Anyway, I hope that helps. If someone sees something different please don't hesitate to say so. Maybe I'm missing something. I would rather spot it now than when I enter the market with money on the line.

Good trading all.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_H4_2009-10-08_1729.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_H4_2009-10-08_1735.png Size: 97 KB
  • #9,536
  • Oct 9, 2009 3:02am Oct 9, 2009 3:02am
Quoting RickyRudy
I've decided to post my charts....
Just remind me, does Jacko's system attempt to trade with the trend, or against it?
  • #9,537
  • Oct 9, 2009 4:04am Oct 9, 2009 4:04am
Quoting turnip15
The 4 hour shows a sideways market ?
In my opinion it is in a pretty clear uptrend. Looking at a roughly 300 bar chart I see the left hand side at around 1.4100 and the right up at around 1.4700 - 1.4800.

There certainly seems to be a lot of confusion as to what we are supposed to be trading here. I think it may pay to re-read the first page of this thread again. I don't mean to be rude to anyone (and this isn't directly aimed at you turnip15) but this method is crazy simple! It doesn't need to be overcomplicated!

Regards,

Dan
  • #9,538
  • Oct 9, 2009 4:18am Oct 9, 2009 4:18am
Quoting Interceptor
Just remind me, does Jacko's system attempt to trade with the trend, or against it?
I think you already know the answer to that question.
  • #9,539
  • Oct 9, 2009 4:59am Oct 9, 2009 4:59am
  •  kean
  • | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: James16group Lifetime Member | 92 Posts
Quoting DanUK
In my opinion it is in a pretty clear uptrend. Looking at a roughly 300 bar chart I see the left hand side at around 1.4100 and the right up at around 1.4700 - 1.4800.

There certainly seems to be a lot of confusion as to what we are supposed to be trading here. I think it may pay to re-read the first page of this thread again. I don't mean to be rude to anyone (and this isn't directly aimed at you turnip15) but this method is crazy simple! It doesn't need to be overcomplicated!

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan,
I totally agree with you regarding the trend direction. I think that, over the last 300 bars, we had a retracement starting at the 23rd September. I think some people saw this as just a retracement of the current bullish trend and some people (Jacko included) decided that it was not a retracement and identified it as a change of trend direction. I suppose what we need is some criteria to identify the change of a trend direction other than just a gut feeling because nobody can guess which way the market is going to go. I just can't buy into the reasoning that 'it has been rising for a long time now so I think it is due a change'...NO, it could carry on rising for another two weeks, or it might not...nobody knows. I would like some feedback, if poss, regarding what to look for on the chart in a trending market, that indicates that the trend could be coming to an end.
Regards, Kean
  • #9,540
  • Oct 9, 2009 5:59am Oct 9, 2009 5:59am
Quoting RickyRudy
I think you already know the answer to that question.
You're right, I do.
I therefore consider it to be impossible to consider a 4hr/daily/weekly chart bullish one day, and then bearish the next.
Just plain doesn't make sense.
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