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Ichimoku forever

  • #4,781
  • Oct 7, 2009 8:12pm Oct 7, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting Giny
Hi Kevin and lbtrader,

I can see that both of you are experienced traders. I have only been trading for a year and only on demo, so please feel free to let me know if you think I miss the mark.

I just wanted to point out that I believe you are actually agreeing with each other about trend trading. Here is a quick quote from the IchimokuWiki about trend trading and the Ichimoku:

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a purpose-built


[indent][font=Times New Roman][color=#0000ff][font=Times New Roman][color=#0000ff]trend...
Hi Giny,

I agree with you about the main trend. I like to see both weekly and daily are in sync before making a trade decision. Once they are in sync, 4hr must be in sync with them as well. Sometimes, I do check 1 hr chart just to see what's going on over there.

What I have seen so far is that once the thickness of KUMO is enough in 4hr and above, it appears to me that 1hr noise may not matter too much.

This is my 2cents.

Cheers to all ichi-pips collectors.
  • #4,782
  • Oct 7, 2009 8:18pm Oct 7, 2009 8:18pm
I re-entered USD/JPY short trade on 1H chart. I am expecting it to hit 88.14. Let's see what happens. So far 10 pips up.
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  • #4,783
  • Oct 7, 2009 8:20pm Oct 7, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting fxScavenger
Did you guys see that 46 pip gap up on the AUDUSD M1 about 20 minutes ago?
AUD news came out much much better than expected.
  • #4,784
  • Oct 7, 2009 8:22pm Oct 7, 2009 8:22pm
Yes, you are right. I guess the employment data shot it up.

Quoting sinner-
AUD news came out much much better than expected.
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  • #4,785
  • Edited 9:08pm Oct 7, 2009 9:06pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting Giny
Hi Kevin and lbtrader,

Weekly and Daily will establish the main trend with all of the Ichimoku signals lining up before I consider a trade. I will also check the 4hourly for possible entries, but most of my entries will be solely based on the weekly and daily charts in conjunction with weekly and monthly Chikou Span Support and Resistance levels. I don't even consider the 5m, 15m, 30m or hourly charts because in my opinion they only provide me with volatility compared to quite a smooth path on the longer time frames.


Cheers,

...
Hi Giny,

Very nice post with some good questions, man! Your last paragraph sums it up extremely well (quoted above), this is pretty much the way I see it, too. Anything below 1 hour is too noisy for me.

Here's what I'll do: Check my daily, see what Ichimoku tells me. EX: EUR/USD right now trend is up.

Check 3-hour chart for support/resistance flat lines that make good targets or s/l. EX: below made 80 pips

That's it, two charts. I set orders, then enjoy my day. But let's face it I'm an addict, too so I like to keep up with news and such.

EDIT:

I like to think of it like you're getting the new Holiday item this year (TREND), and when you can you would want to get it cheaply because you know it's in demand (BETTER PRICE = MORE PIPS)

Hope this helps
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  • #4,786
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:13pm Oct 7, 2009 10:13pm
Quoting sinner-
AUD news came out much much better than expected.
Hi Sinner

You said yesterday the G/J didn't represent value for shorts. It's just posted 2 daily pin bars makin a double bottom at the 50% retrace from the move up from December to July. Where to now I wonder - maybe longs could be on.
  • #4,787
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:34pm Oct 7, 2009 10:34pm
Whoever called short on Gold @ 1029 two nights ago, I freakin hope your MM and SLs were tight! Just couldn't see any signals on any larger time frame to justify the trade at the time, and now we are 200+ long...
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #4,788
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:38pm Oct 7, 2009 10:38pm
Quoting chngster
Whoever called short on Gold @ 1029 two nights ago, I freakin hope your MM and SLs were tight! Just couldn't see any signals on any larger time frame to justify the trade at the time, and now we are 200+ long...
Daily gold and silver are in the extreme bull zone, I can see longs for at least today if not tomorrow as well. No more after that though until we retrace.
  • #4,789
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:40pm Oct 7, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting Joe GX
Hi Sinner

You said yesterday the G/J didn't represent value for shorts. It's just posted 2 daily pin bars makin a double bottom at the 50% retrace from the move up from December to July. Where to now I wonder - maybe longs could be on.
Possibly. There is no G/U sellers today at 1.6 it seems, and U/J is trying to hold above 88. If no G/U sellers show up at FO/LO then she should go up to 1.613-23 zone. Who knows about U/J, she can't go up until gold comes off it seems, which might just keep dragging G/J down.

I am trading GBP/CHF at the moment, U/J is making my JPY cross trades more difficult. For good trading on a cross both component pairs need to be moving.
  • #4,790
  • Oct 8, 2009 12:40am Oct 8, 2009 12:40am
I previously said that I am expecting to go to 88.14. It got to 88.16 and I closed it for 26 PIPS Plus 15 PIPS on the 1M TF earlier. 41 PIPS all together on the same pair.

The reason I closed it at 88.16 is because it is 1:35AM here and gotta hit the sack. Hopefully some of you listened to my advice and jumped on this trade.

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/5725/usdjpy1h.jpg
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  • #4,791
  • Oct 8, 2009 1:11am Oct 8, 2009 1:11am
Hey guys,

Does anyone have, know of OR can write an indicator to give me the values of the TS and KS levels for all the TFs?

God bless,

Doc
  • #4,792
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:13am Oct 8, 2009 2:13am
Quoting sinner-
Possibly. There is no G/U sellers today at 1.6 it seems, and U/J is trying to hold above 88. If no G/U sellers show up at FO/LO then she should go up to 1.613-23 zone. Who knows about U/J, she can't go up until gold comes off it seems, which might just keep dragging G/J down.

I am trading GBP/CHF at the moment, U/J is making my JPY cross trades more difficult. For good trading on a cross both component pairs need to be moving.
Looks like the Euro has run out of puff against the pound too - I think we may see some strength out of England but it's only a guess - very quiet today on all the pairs against the pound maybe the quiet before the..... and there is a fair bit of data out tonight so it will be interesting to see what happens
  • #4,793
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:45am Oct 8, 2009 2:45am
Quoting kharvell
Hi Giny,

Very nice post with some good questions, man! Your last paragraph sums it up extremely well (quoted above), this is pretty much the way I see it, too. Anything below 1 hour is too noisy for me.

Here's what I'll do: Check my daily, see what Ichimoku tells me. EX: EUR/USD right now trend is up.

Check 3-hour chart for support/resistance flat lines that make good targets or s/l. EX: below made 80 pips

That's it, two charts. I set orders, then enjoy my day. But let's face it I'm an addict, too so I like to keep up with news and such....
well kevin, I can't argue with success and congrats on your 80 pips, but that move was quite in the red before it reversed, and could have gone all the way down to the flat kumo. Given you TF I guess you have to allow some draw down before getting into the profit zone if you have done your homework. all I'm saying is given that particular setup, I would have taken the trade when the chikou cleared the flat kumo, just how I integrate the different components when a decisionhas been taken to enter a trade.

Hi Giny
what you are doing is quite similar to what Kevin is doing if not the same, as he already explained. obviously if you want to trade the higher TF you need to mind the weekly and monthly S/R levels as you mentioned, but you also need to know how much of a move has already taken place in day, week or a month before you enter a trade in a specific TF.
by that I mean you need to know the %ADR (average daily range), %AWR or %AMR to see if it is worth pursuing or if you need to be alert for an imminent reversal. as far as the noise on the lower TF I think there are many ways to minimize that and one can benefit from that noise but it's riskier than going with the trend.
anyway GL to both of you.
  • #4,794
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:18am Oct 8, 2009 3:18am
Quoting lbtrader
I know, it's crazy how many moves you get from all the pairs, but if you're following the 4H TF then you'll have ample time to check on each and every one of them. the KS cross is like the kumo breakout, needs to fulfill all its criteria to be successful. like with your trade, you had the chikou crossing the price curve, yes, but it also cleared the key resistance clearly shown, so if it did not, your trade would be a bust, if it was a breakout thru a flat bottom, then also it would retrace back before going down if any.
for the re-entry you will...
I haven't traded any counter trend trades but I keep an eye on them because I'm looking for the re-entry. There are a few risky areas for counter trend trading including:
- if you take the initial break of the CSTLB you run the risk that it's not a proper break and the trend continues
- if you take a price break of the Ts, price might stop around the Ts and continue trend
- if you take a price break of the Ks, price might stop around the Ks.

Of course, price will retrace at some point but out of all of these, the PA breaking Ts seems the safest place with TP1 at the Ks, TP2 at the kumo because Ks can provide a strong S/R point (the Ts can at times as well if the trend is strong). It would help knowing the pair before taking a counter trend trade.

Example GBPCHF 4hr chart:
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  • #4,795
  • Edited 4:10am Oct 8, 2009 3:48am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting SanMiguel
I haven't traded any counter trend trades but I keep an eye on them because I'm looking for the re-entry. There are a few risky areas for counter trend trading including:
- if you take the initial break of the CSTLB you run the risk that it's not a proper break and the trend continues
- if you take a price break of the Ts, price might stop around the Ts and continue trend
- if you take a price break of the Ks, price might stop around the Ks.

Of course, price will retrace at some point but out of all of these, the PA breaking Ts seems the safest...
a countertrend trade is a trade with "limited" prospect because you expect the trend to resume afterwards (sometimes limited can be up to 100's of pips depending on the TF). that is why your first target would be the nearest significant S/R, usually the TS, but once you cleared that then your TP2 is KS and TP3 would be the kumo if the move continues. If you think that there is enough room for all three then you exit 1/3 of your size at TP1, 1/3 at TP2 and let the last 1/3 run.
in your example all points were successful, the first was 160pips, the second was 190 and the third 125.
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  • #4,796
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:19am Oct 8, 2009 4:19am
sorry, I misread your third point, that KS was not broken but price retraced and tookoff from the KS, a move that could hit the kumo for 75 pips.
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  • #4,797
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:45am Oct 8, 2009 4:45am
Quoting lbtrader
sorry, I misread your third point, that KS was not broken but price retraced and tookoff from the KS, a move that could hit the kumo for 75 pips.
Lost me now as well
In the GBPCHF case, when price first breaks the CSTL, we could enter but we need a close past the CSTL and we're still not sure if it will retrace but the stop can be fairly tight I suppose. However, if we had waited to enter at any of those points, we have the same problem of risk because it is against the trend. Specifically, if we entered at the first break of the KS aiming for the kumo we would now be down 50pips or so. Of course, if we took the original CSTLB then we would have hit TP1 and TP2 but not TP3.
It's the risk at the entry points that are the worry. Possible entry points are:
- CSTLB
- Ts
- Ks
  • #4,798
  • Edited 5:23am Oct 8, 2009 5:02am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting SanMiguel
Lost me now as well
In the GBPCHF case, when price first breaks the CSTL, we could enter but we need a close past the CSTL and we're still not sure if it will retrace but the stop can be fairly tight I suppose. However, if we had waited to enter at any of those points, we have the same problem of risk because it is against the trend. Specifically, if we entered at the first break of the KS aiming for the kumo we would now be down 50pips or so. Of course, if we took the original CSTLB then we would have hit TP1 and TP2 but not TP3.
It's the risk...
we are obviously referring to different things. on my last chart the first CSTLB hit the KS and kumo, right? so TP1 and TP2 were taken, TP3 stopped out for a profit too.
the trend then resumed and we have a second countertrend, on the second break target was also reached (KS at point 3). if you had three lots then you would have cashed your first and the rest would be either stopped out or now aiming for the kumo as I type (depending on your SL). now where did that 50 pips down come from?, you are already on a free trade.
Quoting SanMiguel
It's the risk at the entry points that are the worry. Possible entry points are:
- CSTLB
- Ts
- Ks...
countertrend trades are risky, and yes those are the possible entry points.
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  • #4,799
  • Oct 8, 2009 5:30am Oct 8, 2009 5:30am
Quoting lbtrader
we are obviously referring to different things. on my last chart the first CSTLB hit the KS and kumo, right? so TP1 and TP2 were taken, TP3 stopped out for a profit too.
the trend then resumed and we have a second countertrend, on the second break target was also reached (KS at point 3). if you had three lots then you would have cashed your first and the rest would be either stopped out or now aiming for the kumo as I type (depending on your SL). now where did that 50 pips down come from?, you are already on a free trade.

countertrend trades are...
If anybody is interested in a risky counter trend trade the GBP/USD has just broken resistance at 1.603 and looks to be on the up. Just entered on a 5m signal. There is news in the pipeline so tight stops.
  • #4,800
  • Oct 8, 2009 6:12am Oct 8, 2009 6:12am
Quoting lbtrader
we are obviously referring to different things. on my last chart the first CSTLB hit the KS and kumo, right? so TP1 and TP2 were taken, TP3 stopped out for a profit too.
the trend then resumed and we have a second countertrend, on the second break target was also reached (KS at point 3). if you had three lots then you would have cashed your first and the rest would be either stopped out or now aiming for the kumo as I type (depending on your SL). now where did that 50 pips down come from?, you are already on a free trade.

countertrend trades are...
And you wait for a close before deciding that the CSTL has been broken relevant to the TF you're trading?
eg EURJPY has a possible short on the 1hr if the CSTL breaks but might need to wait until 12GMT. News is coming up on the EUR so I am just using this as an example...
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