AUD/USD | Page 296 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #5,901
  • Oct 7, 2009 4:49pm Oct 7, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting teamrecon
Oh, OK !!

What basis do you have for this ??

T
The basis that was originally stated in the post with the chart. You are here taking trades based on what other people say, aren't you?
  • #5,902
  • Oct 7, 2009 4:52pm Oct 7, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting sinner-
The basis that was originally stated in the post with the chart. You are here taking trades based on what other people say, aren't you?

No, I am just trying to learn like everyone else !!

I mean no offense, just interested in other peoples views !
  • #5,903
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:01pm Oct 7, 2009 5:01pm
Hi everyone,
does anybody know what would be the unemployment news? I'm trying to adjust my position to trade that news, my bias is to be worse, so I'll have a sell limit to sell on the spikes, let me know if you guys know anything, thanks
  • #5,904
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:02pm Oct 7, 2009 5:02pm
PS: Guys I believe as of Tokyo open today, liquidity providers are now showing net short sentiment:

SELL SENTIMENT: 53.55%
BUY SENTIMENT: 46.45%
  • #5,905
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:08pm Oct 7, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting sinner-
PS: Guys I believe as of Tokyo open today, liquidity providers are now showing net short sentiment:

SELL SENTIMENT: 53.55%
BUY SENTIMENT: 46.45%
Hi Sinner, what's the interpretation of those sentiment, do you treat them in reverse or you treat them when they are extreme?
  • #5,906
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:11pm Oct 7, 2009 5:11pm
There are two sentiment indices provided, one is liquidity consumer sentiment (which is retail traders) and liquidity provider sentiment the one quoted above (big players).

The reading is simple: whichever sentiment is higher for the liquidity providers is generally the direction the market must move in. We have just had a "switch over" i.e. until very recently liquidity providers were net long sentiment on this pair. So it might take a few days for this sentiment to express itself in the market, but it definitely should by NY close Friday (assuming the sentiment stays as is or increases further to the sell side).
  • #5,907
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:17pm Oct 7, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting sinner-
There are two sentiment indices provided, one is liquidity consumer sentiment (which is retail traders) and liquidity provider sentiment the one quoted above (big players).
Hi Sinner
Where do you access the sentiment indexes?
  • #5,908
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:25pm Oct 7, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Sinner, what's the interpretation of those sentiment, do you treat them in reverse or you treat them when they are extreme?
Nice sig - now all you gotta do is correct the mistake you made spelling the author's name!
  • #5,909
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:34pm Oct 7, 2009 5:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi everyone,
does anybody know what would be the unemployment news? I'm trying to adjust my position to trade that news, my bias is to be worse, so I'll have a sell limit to sell on the spikes, let me know if you guys know anything, thanks
They are expecting a fall 10k for September after a 27k fall in August.Unemployment is expected to lift to 6% from 5.8% which is a little higher than the consensus of 5.9%.That's about all can add at present. News out in a couple of hours.
  • #5,910
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:53pm Oct 7, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting buddy123
hey i long AUD at 08909 should i be worried?

No..
  • #5,911
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:56pm Oct 7, 2009 5:56pm
Just checked on FXCM's sentiment index and this is what it gave me for this evening:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.57 as 72% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 101.3% higher than yesterday and 124.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.6% lower than yesterday and 34.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.4% stronger than yesterday and 16.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.


Ho, ho, ho - now that is a change of sentiment
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #5,912
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:02pm Oct 7, 2009 6:02pm
If you live here in Australia, you'll find that generally employment is resuming its growth.

Not many places are now into "cost cutting" mode by way of reducing headcount.

The job-ads are on rise.

This is my opinion based on what I hear from friends and colleagues who work here in Australia.

If this holds true, IMHO, employment numbers will be better than expected. That will result in strong possibility of another rate hike in November - just the extra bit of fuel that's needed to push this pair at psych. .90 cent levels.

Lets find out in 90 mins whether 90 cent is any chance this week.
  • #5,913
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:02pm Oct 7, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting Patience
Just checked on FXCM's sentiment index and this is what it gave me for this evening:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.57 as 72% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 101.3% higher than yesterday and 124.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.6% lower than yesterday and 34.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.4% stronger than yesterday and 16.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is...
Actually, that indicates the same thing as what I said: retail traders are long so liquidity providers are short.
  • #5,914
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:04pm Oct 7, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting sinner-
Actually, that indicates the same thing as what I said: retail traders are long so liquidity providers are short.
Yes, I know, it's a good sign to see both agreeing I even went short today but it was a tad disappointing so closed out with not a lot of $
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #5,915
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:12pm Oct 7, 2009 6:12pm
Quoting Patience
Just checked on FXCM's sentiment index and this is what it gave me for this evening:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.57 as 72% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 101.3% higher than yesterday and 124.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.6% lower than yesterday and 34.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.4% stronger than yesterday and 16.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a...
That must be after the interest rate hike.

AUD is fundamentally strong.

Last year when AUD nearly hit parity the interest rate differential was about 3.5% with US. Currently it is somewhere around 3%.

It will go down as correction sets in but not before making new hights above 90 cents.

Banks and currency strategists have revised their forecast from .90 cents by Dec 09 to .95 cents by Dec 09 and parity in Q1.

Considering this pair moved almost 30 cents in 10 months, that number is not at all impossible.
  • #5,916
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:13pm Oct 7, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting puks
That must be after the interest rate hike.

AUD is fundamentally strong.

Last year when AUD nearly hit parity the interest rate differential was about 3.5% with US. Currently it is somewhere around 3%.

It will go down as correction sets in but not before making new hights above 90 cents.

Banks and currency strategists have revised their forecast from .90 cents by Dec 09 to .95 cents by Dec 09 and parity in Q1.

Considering this pair moved almost 30 cents in 10 months, that number is not at all impossible.
With puks so bullish I am happy to hold short. Great example of retail exuberance
  • #5,917
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:21pm Oct 7, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting puks
That must be after the interest rate hike.
Looks like most of the long positions were loaded on today because this was this morning's reading so most of the trader's missed out on the interest rate rally.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -3.00 as nearly 75% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.57 as 72% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.4% higher than yesterday and 17.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 23.2% higher than yesterday and 3.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 18.2% stronger than yesterday and 18.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

Whilst I don't disagree with anything you are saying about AUD, when I see sentiment changing this fast, I tend to take notice. Let me just say again, I don't base my trades off it, it's just another tool.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #5,918
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:27pm Oct 7, 2009 6:27pm
Spiked out for -10. Will try again later.
  • #5,919
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:35pm Oct 7, 2009 6:35pm
Well, let the euphoria commence... that's all I can say.
  • #5,920
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:43pm Oct 7, 2009 6:43pm
http://img01.imagefra.me/img/img01/2...7m_4afb80e.png

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...bm_5594aca.png
35 traders viewing now