USDCAD trend reversal?

Appeared to be another slash and burn attack on the USD in the afternoon session. Whoever it was is weakening in their activities.
They wait until some positions are put on and play possum. Then run the stops to drive the USD down. They cannot hold back the full market so are now playing the game at off peak hours.

It will not be sustainable forever. The currency markets are too large for any single player to control or even influence for long.

Yeh I know this guy is nuts. But the charts tell the truth about intentions.

For USD longs just keep waiting for the extremes as entries. Let the market come to you.

I wouldn't look in to the ups and downs in this pair lately. USD/CAD looked like it was going to stage a rally but is still ranging. We're going to have to wait this summer doldrums period out unless a really big stimulus comes in. Yes, there's a good possibility that momentum will continue downward, but all fundamentals poin to a risk to the upside. I underlined risk because I didn't intend to state that it was a certainty or even a bet that it would go up.

We'll see how it goes. Interesting contributions from everybody.

Kris Matthews

Could be more upside potential. The inflation addicts think that the economy has miraculously healed itself and the aisles are full with consumers throwing their money away.
This as we all know is not the case. The consumer is broken and can hardly make bills with their paycheck.

Clown Bernanke and his destruction of purchasing power of the USD has ensured a long and tortuous recovery.
Just to clarify where my thinking is on this. How can there be a weak recovery with a fall in purchasing power?
Isn't purchasing power supposed to rise with a deflation?
Not neccessarily. When earning power collapses and debt servicing becomes a way of life, there is no wealth accumulation and therefore a stagnation ensues.

The end result is spending for neccesities only. The markets can ask any price it wants for commodities, but there will be few takers.
So when suppliers are overpricing product for purchasers, then prices must fall even as the value of a currency is being depreciated by a central banker.

This mornings Challenger job numbers show things are less bad then they were. Over night Europe numbers remains weak as well.
This is supportive of ongoing economic stagnation with little support for the notion that economic recovery is a scenario that is rushing along on its' way.
If commodities have been overplayed, the basis for the trade, continued weakness should be the norm.
Without a return to growth in employment, muddle through, would be a kind discription for the status quo.

As I see it, we have 5 waves finished on the daily.. even though the weekly is still down, we're going to get a 3-wave or a 5-wave move in the new direction now (long)... that's why I bought

Hello,
Wonder if you would give an explanation for your chart. Never really understood what presumably is an Elliot wave count chart.
Always interested in other techniques.
Thanks

What can I say? You can see on every chart, that the market moves in this elliott wave sequence (5 waves up, 3 waves down, 5 waves up, 3 waves down ...) .. it's a matter of more or less getting an idea what wave you are in. The way I do it, you don't need a precise count. Only some factors have to come together for me to know where the tops/bottoms might be .. then you just put in an order based on s/r, fractals or whatever and go with that new move ...
I count them with the Profitunity Indicator called Awesome Oscillator. It actually is pretty awesome too... if you want to have a look at it more closely you should read trading chaos 2nd edition. for elliott waves trading chaos 1st edition. (i believe you can even get them as .pdf for free on the net)

While this pair is destined to go yet higher on the Dailies, and "holding the line" near 1.1050-1.1100, a necessary correction lies in the 1.0963-93 zone where a bounce should ensue, then send it higher on its merry way.

What timeframe[s] do you trade to confirm a trend is established? What is your typical stop size and your typical reward/risk ratio?

Thanks Slight.
The Bernanke Fed has been such a disaster for the USD, coupled with Obama's socialism that I am beginning to think without a ground roots revolution in America the USD is destined for a major currency crisis.
Difficult to trade from an unbiased attitude as a result.

The Fed has zero creditability as a trustee for the value of the dollar.

It's been that way for quite some time now, hasn't it? Therefore, f*ck the fundamentals!

Ultimately the fate of a Nations currency is in the hands of its' citizens.
I still remain bullish on America long term as self determination and self responsibility are stronger then political hacks making promises they can not fullfill.

But for currency trading the timing/technicals appears to be more important then the macro picture. In my own trading I do mix the two.

Thanx

I am currently long til 1.1045...
1.1033 is my only concern on the way.

anyone else in the long wagon?

I still remain bullish on this pair for prior reasons stated, but it is a difficult thing to hold when the forces that are supposed to uphold a currencies virtues are dead set against.

Obama as expressed through Geitner does not believe in individual self advancement. Clearly the State matters more to these people.
Bernanke for all his claims of being from humble origins, has no respect for anyones savings. He is a pure advocate of Big Government over all.

Technically, the read I get on price action is that the market wants this pair higher. Todays price action during the prime volume hours was directional and up. The commodity store has overpriced its' wares. There is someone acting to weaken and is fighting the market all the way during off peak hours.

Therein is the danger to open long positions from a squeeze. Will see what tomorrow morning action fortells for the coming week.

End result of today.
Tough pair to trade if one is looking for direction to last for more then a few hours. What else is there to say.

Plenty of divergence on daily and weekly, could we see bulls stepping in for the dollar in the next few weeks? Keep an eye out on this pair.

I will take Long 1.0620 my 15 min says more up

Here my chart we cross my dots magic line

I love it dude, I can't even see the price bars in your chart

USDCAD reaching key level