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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,661
  • Aug 17, 2009 3:20pm Aug 17, 2009 3:20pm
After the run up to 1.1100 area there was a successful test of the 1.1050 support level/ former resistance that has held.
Longs remain in play, with either a consolidation forming or continued upwards momentum the most likely scenario going forwards.

Commodities remain weak from being pushed too far too fast on inflation fears that are not materializing. There is no shortage of commodities from industrial demand. World Labor markets remain underutilized.
  • #2,662
  • Aug 21, 2009 10:12am Aug 21, 2009 10:12am
long @ 1,0767 with a long term off weekly chart range back to retest 1,300 zone
  • #2,663
  • Aug 21, 2009 1:33pm Aug 21, 2009 1:33pm
Nice call. It would be good if the market lets the USD come up for breathing air instead of always hammering it down.
During last nights Asian market it seemed as if the anti dollar forces ran out of money.
Maybe we are getting to the point of selling exhaustion.
If that ever occurs then a big rally will follow as everyone would be short that is going short.
Pretty nice short term reversal in GBP today. That has been a currency bulled to the moon on nothing.
Maybe a sign of things to come.
  • #2,664
  • Aug 21, 2009 9:43pm Aug 21, 2009 9:43pm
I am Long too. But USD-index is still weak. Hope we can take some nice pips next week.
  • #2,665
  • Aug 22, 2009 1:36pm Aug 22, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting Nar907
This has to be the trend change. Buy weakness NOW! COT data shows commercial traders extremely short CAD and extremely long USD, they are never wrong may be a little early but never wrong, this is Tuesday Aug 11 Data.
Oops!
  • #2,666
  • Aug 22, 2009 4:52pm Aug 22, 2009 4:52pm
For what it's worth I am short this pair from 1.0858 on the break of the retrace trendline and retest (note retrace NOT trend reversal!). It's in a downtrend and until it has definitely reversed I'm staying short particularly after such strong price action.

It may reach 1.03 next week. Then again it may not and my stop will be hit, that's trading... Although I never trade against the prevailing trend I accept the loss and reexamine. Not every move against the trend is a reversal, especially when price is nowhere near the weekly trendline.
  • #2,667
  • Aug 22, 2009 8:40pm Aug 22, 2009 8:40pm
I do not think that USDCAD will continue going down to hit 1.03. Because lets see the oil price and usd-index. Do you think oil will reach 80 next week?
  • #2,668
  • Aug 23, 2009 1:03am Aug 23, 2009 1:03am
Quoting Pham
I do not think that USDCAD will continue going down to hit 1.03. Because lets see the oil price and usd-index. Do you think oil will reach 80 next week?
Anything is possible with oil, that is trending up too.

I can't see any good fundamental reasons why oil would continue going up but I still wouldn't be in a hurry to call the bottom of usdcad just yet.

Oil plays a major factor but it's not the only thing that affects the price of this pair. Oil may well stay flat but usd looks weak across the board with aud and eur moving higher against it.

I'm quite prepared to be wrong on this but while it's going down I'm shorting it.
  • #2,669
  • Aug 23, 2009 1:31am Aug 23, 2009 1:31am
Quoting Snr Dinero
For what it's worth I am short this pair from 1.0858 on the break of the retrace trendline and retest (note retrace NOT trend reversal!). It's in a downtrend and until it has definitely reversed I'm staying short particularly after such strong price action.

It may reach 1.03 next week. Then again it may not and my stop will be hit, that's trading... Although I never trade against the prevailing trend I accept the loss and reexamine. Not every move against the trend is a reversal, especially when price is nowhere near the weekly trendline.
I am with you on tHIS ONE.. 1.03-- 1.02.. THEN BUY for a ride to 1.44 minimum..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #2,670
  • Aug 23, 2009 5:17am Aug 23, 2009 5:17am
Quoting Raza
I am with you on tHIS ONE.. 1.03-- 1.02.. THEN BUY for a ride to 1.44 minimum..
1.02 is an almost 75% fib retrace on the monthly chart but I won't be going long until that weekly trendline is broken.

What's your thinking behind the trend reversal and the 1.44 target?
  • #2,671
  • Aug 24, 2009 12:09am Aug 24, 2009 12:09am
I suspect the current downtrend now, the COT index is extrem and the report shows more net position size in Long CAD (short USDCAD) ,the boat is so crowded and should flip over soon and it would be heading to the upside
check out this website for COT index and net position ;it's worthlooking
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
  • #2,672
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:31am Aug 24, 2009 4:31am
I don't understand the obsession with trying to call the bottom?

For me the trend has reversed when it makes a higher low. Then and only then will I trade it to the upside. There will still be plenty of pips left for me in the ensuing uptrend.
  • #2,673
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:05am Aug 24, 2009 7:05am
Are they hinting to sell?
  • #2,674
  • Aug 24, 2009 12:08pm Aug 24, 2009 12:08pm
I agree, but I still added another long at 1.0742.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #2,675
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:48pm Aug 24, 2009 4:48pm
Templeton always said buy at maximum pessimism. Since the world believes there are no restraints on how low Obama's administration will let the USD fall. Maybe we are there.
Finding maximum pessimism is a tough call. Maybe he was wrong. But then again he did pretty well investing and trading.
It may be early on this pair, but if one chooses to trade contrary to the Lemmings then small position size longs would be the way to test the waters.
Wait for the deep run away moves and buy in the other way. It takes a stomache of Iron to do this and is not for all.
  • #2,676
  • Aug 25, 2009 12:02am Aug 25, 2009 12:02am
If you're determined to catch the very bottom of a move then yes, go for it but how many times will you be wrong until you are right?

Doesn't it make more sense to wait for a trend to establish itself and then get on board? Let the big players dictate the direction and catch the same train, even if at a later station?

At the end of the day I'm not complaining, there's a word for people who try to pick tops and bottoms... liquidity
  • #2,677
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:43am Aug 25, 2009 6:43am
It depends upon the basis of the analysis. For instance I am quite convinced that the USD has intentionaly been weakened by soverign power and financial managers selling the fear of inflation. This to convince a skeptical equtities market that it is just fine to go and put on risk.

Economies do not turn because of manipulations. They turn because something real is actualy happening.

As evidence is the continuing selling of the USD everyday that normaly commences with the 9 am open of the US banking system
Only one nation has the currency reserves to directly influence the USD. Since their currency is pegged to the USD and they are waiting for the US consumer to go back to its spendthrift ways they have motive.

So if my thesis is correct then to buy the USD when it selloffs is quite logical as purchasing power parity is being skewed to undervalued for the USD

To assume that the market is unidirectional and the USD can only go down forever is a market bubble in this persons opinion.

But markets can be irrational longer then ones account can stand. So small position sizes will generate small losses, but there is a probability that the trade is being placed for the correct reasons.
  • #2,678
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:53am Aug 25, 2009 6:53am
I also am making the assumption that the US consumer has been devestated by the loss of wealth and has learned something of a lesson. This over the long haul will reduce the US trade deficit with Asia which in turn will reduce the USD holdings of Asia. These holdings have been in the past recycled into Higher yielders thus perpetuating the downward spiral of the USD.
A self reinforcing trend was generated as the Fed in an attempt to prevent recession caused by the trade deficit kept pumping up the economy with low interest rates.

A sharp slow down in exporting nations proceeds has occurred and this in turn will reduce their ability to keep on doing what they have been doing.
  • #2,679
  • Aug 26, 2009 1:48am Aug 26, 2009 1:48am
Quoting Snr Dinero
1.02 is an almost 75% fib retrace on the monthly chart but I won't be going long until that weekly trendline is broken.

What's your thinking behind the trend reversal and the 1.44 target?
Sorry little late to reply..

102-103 bEING STRONG SUPPORT SO FAR...

144-153..BEING STRONG SUPPORT ..AT ONE TIME NEVER BEING RETESTED..some Fib levels as you have mentioned..Trendline..which you can se on the Chart.. Wave theory..

This is also going to be a Right Shoulder of the Head it has already made..IF you squeeze your weekly chart.. you can clearly see...also see How Deep the Fall is going to Be for USD. from 144- 153..

Of course this is not written in stone..It is Just My View..

Trade your Charts.
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #2,680
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:16am Aug 26, 2009 3:16am
Daily Channel
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