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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,501
  • Oct 6, 2009 3:08am Oct 6, 2009 3:08am
  •  kean
  • | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: James16group Lifetime Member | 92 Posts
So, now that this most recent trade has failed, do we apply the anti-hedge or was it indeed a counter trend trade after all?
  • #9,502
  • Oct 6, 2009 3:25am Oct 6, 2009 3:25am
Quoting kean
So, now that this most recent trade has failed, do we apply the anti-hedge or was it indeed a counter trend trade after all?
Lord knows!
I joined Jacko's group, and follow this thread, in order to learn how the great man trades.
It seems that there is an unfortunate possibility that I am actually learning a great method which has been bastardized and weakened due to fellow members being too 'impatient' to trade this method in it's pure form. In other words, the teacher may be influenced by the need for regular gratification by his pupils.
Dont'cha just love patient people.............
  • #9,503
  • Oct 6, 2009 5:34am Oct 6, 2009 5:34am
Quoting kean
So, now that this most recent trade has failed, do we apply the anti-hedge or was it indeed a counter trend trade after all?
In any event there is no AH trade until the price goes through 1.4775. As I understand Jacko's thoughts at present we are due a significant retracement hence the short trade. We may disagree with him about that but anyone going long at this price?
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,504
  • Oct 6, 2009 6:35am Oct 6, 2009 6:35am
  •  kean
  • | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: James16group Lifetime Member | 92 Posts
Quoting narberth
In any event there is no AH trade until the price goes through 1.4775. As I understand Jacko's thoughts at present we are due a significant retracement hence the short trade. We may disagree with him about that but anyone going long at this price?
Hi, I know what the level for the AH trade is...I am just not sure if it should trigger if it gets up to that level. We can not answer this question unless we know if the last trade was with trend or counter trend. It looks now and always did look to be a counter trend trade to me. However, Jacko suggested otherwise based on 'gut feeling'!
Kean
  • #9,505
  • Oct 6, 2009 6:48am Oct 6, 2009 6:48am
Quoting Interceptor
Lord knows!
I joined Jacko's group, and follow this thread, in order to learn how the great man trades.
It seems that there is an unfortunate possibility that I am actually learning a great method which has been bastardized and weakened due to fellow members being too 'impatient' to trade this method in it's pure form. In other words, the teacher may be influenced by the need for regular gratification by his pupils.
Dont'cha just love patient people.............
Hi Interceptor

I understand your frustrations. After 2 losing trades in a row at the start of the year I thought I could do better and looked for every reason why Jacko was losing and my ideas would work.

After about 6 months I read Trading in the Zone and realised I was running away. I went back to see how he'd been doing and he'd been consistantly making money. Bad weeks, months and even quarters but still making money over the year!

Trading in the Zone
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3011574&postcount=9121

I think patience with our teachers is just as important as our teachers havng patience.

I'm still up about 600 pips this quarter.

Happy Pipping
Cheers Dave
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,506
  • Oct 6, 2009 6:57am Oct 6, 2009 6:57am
My chart tells me Jacko's last trade was a CT trade. I thought this was the case when the trade was discussed on Friday. Even if it wasn't deemed as such prior to taking the trade, it seems clear to me that it was CT, even if only in retrospect. Because of this I would not execute an AH trade.

I'll try to post a chart later to show what I'm seeing should time permit.
  • #9,507
  • Oct 6, 2009 7:03am Oct 6, 2009 7:03am
Hey Everybody
I just finished reading the thread, Wow!

Thanks to all you contributers and to you Jacko. I felt
like I was "unlearning" stuff that was really not worth
learning in the first place.

I love the simplicity!

In a few days I am going to join Jacko's group
of turtles so I have a couple questions.

First to everyone on the forum:
How has Jacko's method changed and/or iproved
your trading?

Are you more profitable....?

Second, to all those in Jacko's private forum:
How are you doing since joining his PF?
Have you increased your lot size, and profits?
How do you like the group?

Feel free to pm me if you feel you need to.

Thanks!
Gods Blessings, Anthony
  • #9,508
  • Oct 6, 2009 8:50am Oct 6, 2009 8:50am
Quoting RickyRudy
My chart tells me Jacko's last trade was a CT trade. I thought this was the case when the trade was discussed on Friday. Even if it wasn't deemed as such prior to taking the trade, it seems clear to me that it was CT, even if only in retrospect. Because of this I would not execute an AH trade.

I'll try to post a chart later to show what I'm seeing should time permit.
For those still considering an AH, I've attached the charts I mentioned in the post above as food for thought. Here is a detailed explanation of the charts:

I’m providing the weekly because it gives greater perspective showing how the ascending trendline is drawn. It also shows the greater prevailing uptrend. The hour 4 chart also shows an uptrend. Like most others I was looking for a retracement down to the 1.4445 fib line. It wasn’t until NFP that I started seriously considering the fib line at 1.4518. I noticed that price had bounced off this fib. Then the NFP pushed priced downward past this fib. However, NFP activity wasn’t strong enough to push price past the weekly TL. It hit this TL and bounced off to the pip. These two events should have confirmed an uptrend and that the likelihood of the retracement going to go much further South was slim. Until the NFP the market did appear to be turning to the South, so I understand why Wayne was considering a short. We may be due for a retracement but the evidence I’m looking at suggest we’ve just had one. I’m of the opinion that this bull is alive and kicking. Short trades in my opinion are a risky proposition.
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  • #9,509
  • Oct 6, 2009 10:14am Oct 6, 2009 10:14am
Nice clear charts Ricky thank you for your observations
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,510
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:13pm Oct 6, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting madpommie
Hi Interceptor

I understand your frustrations. After 2 losing trades in a row at the start of the year I thought I could do better and looked for every reason why Jacko was losing and my ideas would work.

After about 6 months I read Trading in the Zone and realised I was running away. I went back to see how he'd been doing and he'd been consistantly making money. Bad weeks, months and even quarters but still making money over the year!

Trading in the Zone
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3011574&postcount=9121...
Hi Dave
I have moved well beyond the self blaming for losses stage, but what is really bugging me is thinking that I have a reasonable understanding of this methodology, but then finding out that this (excellent) method could be short circuited by the 'need' of some of 'Jacko's Turtles' for higher frequency trading opportunities. I have a horrible suspicion that this may then feed back to, and possibly even influence, Jacko himself!
Think about it for a minute:
You put together a way of trading which proves itself in the market and brings you a high degree of success. You then generously give of your time to help some less experienced traders along the road. However, through a combination of low financial capitalization and impatience, the pupils then start to trade with a higher frequency than the teacher. Sometimes this even proves to show some short term success. Imagine the potential 'off-piste' temptations this may then subject the teacher to?
An old truism with trading is that you take what the market gives to you, and you do NOT attempt to superimpose your own (irrelevant) needs upon the market.
What matters most to me is the correct implementation of a strategy.
Not the frequency with which the opportunities arrive.

Cheers
  • #9,511
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:57pm Oct 6, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting Interceptor
Hi Dave
I have moved well beyond the self blaming for losses stage, but what is really bugging me is thinking that I have a reasonable understanding of this methodology, but then finding out that this (excellent) method could be short circuited by the 'need' of some of 'Jacko's Turtles' for higher frequency trading opportunities. I have a horrible suspicion that this may then feed back to, and possibly even influence, Jacko himself!
Think about it for a minute:
You put together a way of trading which proves itself in the market and brings...
I'm with you on this mate. Trend trading is actually sooooo easy it is kind of unfair! If you can have the patience to wait for the right moment to strike (and not overcomplicate things... stick to the simple rules laid out on page one of this thread) then pretty much anyone trading this method should be able to turn a profit.

If you start trying to overcomplicate matters and grab a piece of the action every time the market changes direction then you are looking for trouble, in my opinion.

If I may quote Mr Jackson... "When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem....If you make a mistake and you are fighting the trend ...YOU ARE STUFFED, BIG TIME !!!"

Trading really is easy! Sit back and take the easy road... the trend will lead to riches - I can say this knowing it to be true; not trying to be a wise guy, I'm just speaking the truth!

Regards,

Dan
  • #9,512
  • Oct 6, 2009 5:07pm Oct 6, 2009 5:07pm
If people want to not be patient, then let them be. Why would you risk your (hard earned) money to take a punt? Keep reminding yourself of the story of the turtle and the rabbit...
  • #9,513
  • Oct 7, 2009 4:43am Oct 7, 2009 4:43am
I think Jacko was looking at the 1, 4 and 8 hr charts they all showed a trend reversal, there is an old saying that the bulls climb the stairs and the bears jump out the windows. If you want to make money going down you have to get in early. Unfortunately the daily chart was where the bend ended and went straight back up.
It was a good trade he made a call based on his "criteria" followed his rules and lives to trade another day. any trade you have the balls to achieve the above on is a good trade. After all many profitable trading systems are based on less than 50% luck ratios. it's all about MM and letting your profits ride...I think
  • #9,514
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:06am Oct 7, 2009 6:06am
Im fairly new to all this but I firmly believe its a fantastic method and extremely simple once screen times been put in.

Impatience is the killer, along with small accounts where rookies "rush" and "panic" on missing opportunities which will always present themselves! In the end its the "i hate my job and i wanna go fulltime now! right now!".

And it just aint gonna happen! Jacko mentions along the lines of why jump on every stinking move knowing darn well that the markets will ALWAYS provide A+++ setups IF the patience is put in.

In the end, taking it easy and slowly truly is THE way to make it in this business. Going slow is going fast. And i include myself in saying that i sometimes rush into trades. even though one knows it isnt the perfect time. Its all about the mindset and HOW you approach the industry. Time to deprogram!

just thought id share my thoughts on it aswell.
  • #9,515
  • Oct 7, 2009 7:30am Oct 7, 2009 7:30am
If in doubt, show it to the 5 year old.
I showed it to mine. He got it right.
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  • #9,516
  • Oct 7, 2009 7:40am Oct 7, 2009 7:40am
Quoting Trndsurfer
It was a good trade he made a call based on his "criteria" followed his rules and lives to trade another day. any trade you have the balls to achieve the above on is a good trade. After all many profitable trading systems are based on less than 50% luck ratios. it's all about MM and letting your profits ride...I think
Sorry, can't agree.
Is fiber going up or down?
Ask the 5 year old.
Then draw the 2 trendlines.
If it's going up, look to buy at support on retracement.
If it's going down, look to sell at resistance on retracement.
But whatever else you are doing, do NOT draw a trendline and then look to enter following the expected destruction of said trendline. Because that makes the trendline you drew completely pointless. Remember the odds; they hold more than they break. So why plan an entry based upon a broken trendline?
Just plain wrong.
  • #9,517
  • Oct 7, 2009 7:47am Oct 7, 2009 7:47am
Quoting DanUK
I'm with you on this mate. Trend trading is actually sooooo easy it is kind of unfair! If you can have the patience to wait for the right moment to strike (and not overcomplicate things... stick to the simple rules laid out on page one of this thread) then pretty much anyone trading this method should be able to turn a profit.

If you start trying to overcomplicate matters and grab a piece of the action every time the market changes direction then you are looking for trouble, in my opinion.

If I may quote...
Hi Dan
I've gotta confess that I'm looking forward to a return to daily timeframes, as these 4 hour bars are repainting far too quickly to serve any useful purpose as immediate s & r points. Also, as Kean said, the losing trades are often moving nicely into profit before hitting the fan. I always feel kinda stupid after losing a 'maximum' from being comfortably in profit. I feel like I'm wearing a clown's red nose or something like!
Cheers.
  • #9,518
  • Oct 7, 2009 11:01am Oct 7, 2009 11:01am
My thoughts on this method.

Ii could happen and a good back-test would reveal this, that if you use psych. levels for entry + AH, that you could end up with a string on losers. For example, if you enter at long 1.4500 (with a 100 pip stop) and the trade fails, you re-enter with an AH at 1.4400, it could happen that 1.4400 turns into resistance and the market keep selling off.

This way your trades keep getting jerked around by various psych levels.
  • #9,519
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:51pm Oct 7, 2009 5:51pm
I have been following Jackos thread for 6 months now.
He is an incredibly good and successful trader.
I know you have to adapt in this market and he is now using smaller time frames.
But if he is now using 1 hour charts and no longer trend trading, what is the method?
For a five year old it is very simple. Weekly, day, and four our chart, the trend is UP.
  • #9,520
  • Oct 7, 2009 9:14pm Oct 7, 2009 9:14pm
he is still trend trading he just picked the trend to bend ( so did I) and it didnt(this time). Very easy to draw some lines on a chart after it's all gone down. If you checked the 4 hr chart previous to the last trade it was in a southern trend. the move didnt carry through to the daily but if it did we would have made bucket loads. as it is we only lost our pre determined max loss for the trade. for me the probability was worth while, for you maybe not. yes interceptor it was wrong wrong wrong, the trend is always much more likely to continue than change.
lets get over this and get on to talking about the next opportunity
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