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AUD/USD

  • #5,361
  • Oct 5, 2009 11:18am Oct 5, 2009 11:18am
Quoting shahab8b
Thanks Patience, wish you more piping than always
Same to you. Damn, closed my gold longs way, way too early. Always the way
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #5,362
  • Oct 5, 2009 11:19am Oct 5, 2009 11:19am
IMM Positioning ; Written by Danske Bank | Oct 05 09 09:50 GMT
The latest IMM data covers the week from 22 to 29 September.
Negative sterling sentiment persisting in the market combined with a continued decline in GBP/USD coincided with speculative investors adding further to net short GBP positions. GBP/USD broke lower in the week and several key support levels were taken out on the way down to a 1.5772 low. Net short GBP positions stand at almost 50% of open interest, reflecting that speculative flows have catalysed the GBP sell-off, but also that GBP could gain significantly from a change in sentiment, as shorts look somewhat crowded.
Speculative investors scaled down USD shorts somewhat prior to the publication of US non-farm payrolls data last Friday. However, while some of these positions have been converted into GBP shorts, the chart to the right indicates that the reduction in USD shorts has largely been due to a reduction in overall open interest – i.e. positions being closed down.
Driven by a deteriorating risk sentiment and a drop in the oil price, USD/CAD moved higher and even tested 1.10. This led to a reduction in long CAD positions and while AUD and NZD longs were also scaled down slightly, CAD longs proved most vulnerable.
Overall IMM positions still remain very polarised with speculative investors crowding together on a one-sided bet on a NZD and AUD appreciation and on a continued decline in GBP/USD

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20091005w1.gif
  • #5,363
  • Oct 5, 2009 11:27am Oct 5, 2009 11:27am
Quoting blue_z_zz
her is what im thinking the spike in volume and how feb2009 trend line held out after the unemployment news friday

1- looking for 8765 as a first target

2- if it goes through and stand its ground above 8765 then it might go and test its high @8860

3-if it goes through and stand its ground above 8860 then its going to be looking for a new high

4-all the above will fail if it closes under feb trend line which currently stands in 8570-8580

so for the time being im going to stay long stop loss under the trend line and goodluck to all

my first tp just got filled so now lets see if no.2 is in play
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,364
  • Oct 5, 2009 11:31am Oct 5, 2009 11:31am
Quoting blue_z_zz
dont try to fight the momentum
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,365
  • Oct 5, 2009 11:45am Oct 5, 2009 11:45am
Hi guys, a newbie question for you: do you think that the .25 rate hike is already priced in? Thanks Gab
  • #5,366
  • Oct 5, 2009 12:03pm Oct 5, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting TraderGab
Hi guys, a newbie question for you: do you think that the .25 rate hike is already priced in? Thanks Gab
propabily
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,367
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:22pm Oct 5, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting shahab8b
IMM Positioning ; Wrtitten by Danske Bank | Oct 05 09 09:50 GMT
The latest IMM data covers the week from 22 to 29 September.
Negative sterling sentiment persisting in the market combined with a continued decline in GBP/USD coincided with speculative investors adding further to net short GBP positions. GBP/USD broke lower in the week and several key support levels were taken out on the way down to a 1.5772 low. Net short GBP positions stand at almost 50% of open interest, reflecting that speculative...
thanks for this and i believe its a bulish signal for aussie as my RSI and some other indicators too suports this except for my daily chart which is signaling a bearish one based on macd divergence.lets see how its going to play out.
  • #5,368
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:29pm Oct 5, 2009 1:29pm
its so quite today in hear seems every body is short
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,369
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:35pm Oct 5, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
its so quite today in hear seems every body is short
Not long or short AUD but am short NZD, adding to my postion now... avg 0.7250 now (in at 0.72 and now 0.73) .... the news with their business confidence coming out in a couple hours could potentially move this up to .7350 later; but I have a somewhat longer term plan for this trade and may hold it until we lose 0.70... filling the boat if we go 0.75 here.
  • #5,370
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:41pm Oct 5, 2009 1:41pm
hi guys my first post in this section,
wow thursday and friday punished me but the monday.....
im long from 87, nzd/usd too from 72, added aussi @87,8.
SL -30 pips TP open, think ill sell 50% at 88 / 73 and the rest ttm .
cya and good pips
  • #5,371
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:47pm Oct 5, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting thadakman
Not long or short AUD but am short NZD, adding to my postion now... avg 0.7250 now (in at 0.72 and now 0.73) .... the news with their business confidence coming out in a couple hours could potentially move this up to .7350 later; but I have a somewhat longer term plan for this trade and may hold it until we lose 0.70... filling the boat if we go 0.75 here.
way enter in the middle of the move even if you have a long term view just wait and get a better entry point for me i think equities and commadties are set to test their highs and so aud eur cad goodluck
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,372
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:54pm Oct 5, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
her is what im thinking the spike in volume and how feb2009 trend line held out after the unemployment news friday

1- looking for 8765 as a first target

2- if it goes through and stand its ground above 8765 then it might go and test its high @8860

3-if it goes through and stand its ground above 8860 then its going to be looking for a new high

4-all the above will fail if it closes under feb trend line which currently stands in 8570-8580

so for the time being im going to stay long stop loss under the trend line and goodluck to all
my 2nd tp is coming @8823
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,373
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:12pm Oct 5, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
way enter in the middle of the move even if you have a long term view just wait and get a better entry point for me i think equities and commadties are set to test their highs and so aud eur cad goodluck
I wasn't convinced that NZD would break 0.7300 again so soon; but regardless, I scale in on my trades and have planned entries up until a certain point. Still pretty comfortable so far and was happy to add more at 0.7300. I'll be looking for more entries between 0.7400-0.7500 and plan to start exiting if we get a convincing break and hold over 0.7500 (but I think 0.7500 is about as high as we go before we lose 0.7000 again).
  • #5,374
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:16pm Oct 5, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting thadakman
I wasn't convinced that NZD would break 0.7300 again so soon; but regardless, I scale in on my trades and have planned entries up until a certain point. Still pretty comfortable so far and was happy to add more at 0.7300. I'll be looking for more entries between 0.7400-0.7500 and plan to start exiting if we get a convincing break and hold over 0.7500 (but I think 0.7500 is about as high as we go before we lose 0.7000 again).
goodluck thadakman hope your plan works for you to be honest i dont follow nzd i only trade aud and the s&p500 i like to focus on what im trading and went in aud just resently because its highly correlated with s&p
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,375
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:23pm Oct 5, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
goodluck thadakman hope your plan works for you to be honest i dont follow nzd i only trade aud and the s&p500 i like to focus on what im trading and went in aud just resently because its highly correlated with s&p
NZD follows AUD pretty closely; but I figure, as far as the RBA decision goes, if it causes AUD to rally, NZD wont rally quite as far so my shorts will be safer... but as far as AUD being correlated with the S&P, I agree; but I'd say that EUR has the highest correlation with the S&P by far; do you trade that at all? You can get bigger moves with the EUR than the AUD.

I like the AUD and NZD more than EUR b/c they don't move as much as EUR, which is better for my scaling strategy.
  • #5,376
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:29pm Oct 5, 2009 2:29pm
Hi Guys,

I see this Broadening wedge and also What I am seeing is that the volume with which this is going up is nothing but low volume...so the upthrust to make a double top could be the key for a short...

I would also expect to see the upthrust before 3:00 ie before the RBA statement....

Good Luck
These are just my thoughts...

Geppyg
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Let Price determine your future!
  • #5,377
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:30pm Oct 5, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
my 2nd tp is coming @8823
You will see 8860 imho..Patience buddy good trade
Let Price determine your future!
  • #5,378
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:33pm Oct 5, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting thadakman
NZD follows AUD pretty closely; but I figure, as far as the RBA decision goes, if it causes AUD to rally, NZD wont rally quite as far so my shorts will be safer... but as far as AUD being correlated with the S&P, I agree; but I'd say that EUR has the highest correlation with the S&P by far; do you trade that at all? You can get bigger moves with the EUR than the AUD.

I like the AUD and NZD more than EUR b/c they don't move as much as EUR, which is better for my scaling strategy.
yes i follow eur and your right on the corralation but the thing that conserens me in the eur is that Trichet has been hinting of an intervention for a while now and i dont want to be caught in this bloodshed and as ive learnd over the years never bet aginst a central bank
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,379
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:38pm Oct 5, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting Geppyg
You will see 8860 imho..Patience buddy good trade
thanks buddy
my patience was on the test today in the early hours before us open how it was having a hard time pentrating its 100ema
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,380
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:42pm Oct 5, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
thanks buddy
my patience was on the test today in the early hours before us open how it was having a hard time pentating its 100ema
Hi Blue,

Do you know why I like your posting...everything is very clean...compared to other posters...I dont post that much but only as of late have really been hitting good trades on aussie..hence I would share my thoughts..

I think you trade like me in the sense PA Pivots and Trend lines that is it nothing else...
It took me 5 years to realise it but now am having a blast...

Wish you the best keep it up

GeppyG
Let Price determine your future!
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