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  • #6,061
  • Oct 4, 2009 11:47pm Oct 4, 2009 11:47pm
Had a hammer on firday with the sunday bar forming a bueb on the DSRI looks like its ready to continue

I zoomed out this far to see how long this uptrend really has been
  • #6,062
  • Oct 4, 2009 11:48pm Oct 4, 2009 11:48pm
forgot to attach pic in last post

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.JPG Size: 184 KB
  • #6,063
  • Oct 4, 2009 11:58pm Oct 4, 2009 11:58pm
we have a nice double bottom on the weekly as shown by patrick

are those two longwicked hammers considered a double bottom also or are they too close?

Its looking pretty bullish right now with the sunday bar also making a hammer like candle more like a doji though. I think its still too counter trend for me and I'd like to see a HH above 90.30

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  • #6,064
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:27am Oct 5, 2009 3:27am
Also if you draw a support line from May 28 to Sept. 21 there is an acsending triangle in the works for this pair!! Let this retest the 90.30 level and we should all see a nice long short. If PA allows of course...lol
  • #6,065
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:36am Oct 5, 2009 3:36am
If anyone gets bored, put the ol fibo on the most recent swing high to low and take a gander at where the 161, 261 fall....coinsidence, i think not. Those prior SL's are itchin to get touched. EUR/GBP Oh and btw, I'm glad to see this thread still hummin along. It's a good one and let's try to keep it alive!
  • #6,066
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:42am Oct 5, 2009 3:42am
And if you get EXTREMELY bored slap th fib on the swing high and low of this one! Same story, just a different direction. That 161 and 261 smell like a new chopper to me.......all in good time.....I've been trading PA for quite some time now and i must that the posse here for enlightening the masses. It really is the key to happiness...lol
  • #6,067
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:44am Oct 5, 2009 4:44am
TY dead cowboy for trying to enlighten us . We masses are very pleased. Yet according to post 6021, there is quite a few ways of drawing fibs and what one calls the last swing too. The way I did it , i didn't find anything very enlightening. I'll try again.

Spinner

A fool is a fool who doesn't know he is a fool
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #6,068
  • Oct 5, 2009 5:31am Oct 5, 2009 5:31am
Quoting DeadCowboy
Also if you draw a support line from May 28 to Sept. 21 there is an acsending triangle ...
Can you please show us how you are drawing this support line?
  • #6,069
  • Oct 5, 2009 7:05am Oct 5, 2009 7:05am
Here's a chart on eur aud.

Even it is a CT trade, I might buy a small amount if it spikes down out of the TL or breaks the trendline up and retests.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud.jpg Size: 229 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #6,070
  • Oct 5, 2009 8:36am Oct 5, 2009 8:36am
Quoting Spinner
Here's a chart on eur aud.

Even it is a CT trade, I might buy a small amount if it spikes down out of the TL or breaks the trendline up and retests.
good and agressive trade spinner.hope it will work for you.
  • #6,071
  • Oct 5, 2009 8:48am Oct 5, 2009 8:48am
...."good and agressive trade spinner.hope it will work for you."

Now u've scared me!

There's a third trade there maybe: a sell at that s/r point at 1.7300
Just depends on timing really, a sudden rally with a cross (up)of the (white) 100 ma, would get me selling it. As long as the angle of the ma is down.

Spinner

A fool is a fool that doesn't know he is a fool
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #6,072
  • Oct 5, 2009 9:19am Oct 5, 2009 9:19am
Thanks friends for responding to my post 5933. I was attempting to see if there was PASR corresponding to MAJOR past SR.

From CrudeCraig:
"I agree but i am getting a feeling that you are trying to see the exact tops and bottoms of each big move, we don't need to be this exact all of the time(sometimes we will get lucky and nail a top or a bottom but it should not be our main priority) we just want a good sized chunk of that move, so getting in on the retraces and adding on our way up or down is what we are looking for IMO.

From Blackeagle:
"They are correct if you identify swing tops and bottoms in trend direction but as you can see from your candlestick chart, sometimes PA does not present itself at major SRs to allow entry, so you need to have your long term DSRIs on your chart and check PA near them to enter trades in trend direction so that you can have good entry opportunities."

From Strat:
"Accept this:
1)We are never going to pick tops and bottoms. Any that we do will be more by luck than skill
2)All we want is the “meat” in the middle of those huge moves – the “safe” 75%
3)Let others worry about tops and bottoms"
-------------------
I'm not necessarily trying to catch the tops and bottoms of the swings so much as I am looking for the price action that indicates a low-risk entry at support and resistance. The past major swing tops/bottoms seemed like a logical place to start looking for S/R, but as you guys mention, the entries don't seem to occur there all that often. So my next question is; if not there, then where? So I looked at several more charts and looked at correlation between the price action I see at ANY swing top/bottom from the recent past.

Strat, I have included the charts for your review in the zip file and a description of what I'm exploring. Please take a quick look at them if you have time and let me know what you think.
------------------------------
Description:
I am trying to determine how price reacts to past swing tops/bottoms, and if price action at these areas offer a reliable, low-risk entry point to place a trade.

On the thread I first mentioned that I was looking to see if there is price action at MAJOR swing tops and bottoms, but on these charts I have just looked for price action at any previous swing tops/bottoms. This is what I am calling support/resistance.

There are two charts for each pair in this folder.

The first chart is a line (close) graph with most of the swing highs/lows in 2009 marked with an "X".

The horizontal lines extending from the RIGHT to LEFT are there - IF the swing high/low intersects with any recent past swing high/low.

The second chart is the same but showing candlesticks. This is to identify possible setups (SS, hammer, BEEB BEOB, BUEB, or BUOB) at the swing highs/lows.

The "X's" that are "CHECKED" are areas that have:
a) Corresponding past S/R and,
b) PASR setup for entry.
The others do not.

It will be obvious when you see the charts.

There are most likely some other places where there was good PASR that an experienced trader would notice, but I want to work on the basics first and make sure I am on the right track. If not, I want to find out where I am mistaken.

I also didn't include the trendlines or DSRI as that seems somewhat subjective and not as clear-cut as it depends on where you draw them. I will deal with that later when I get a little farther along in understanding.

Thanks again for your help,
Dave
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Charts of PASR at Swing Highs-Lows.zip   588 KB | 1,109 downloads
  • #6,073
  • Oct 5, 2009 9:50am Oct 5, 2009 9:50am
Quoting PistolDave
Thanks friends for responding to my post 5933. I was attempting to see if there was PASR corresponding to MAJOR past SR.

From CrudeCraig:
[color=blue]"I agree but i am getting a feeling that you are trying to see the exact tops and bottoms of each big move, we don't need to be this exact all of the time(sometimes we will get lucky and nail a top or a bottom but it should not be our main priority) we just want a good sized chunk of that move, so getting in on the retraces and adding on our way up or down...
Dave, everything "seems" OK but I think you are jumping the gun and are way ahead of yourself.

Have you successfully traded from support to the 1st resistance and from resistance to the 1st support and produced a growing equity curve over at least 6 months? Until you can do this, forget about any trend trades. Start at the beginning and do it one step at a time.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,074
  • Oct 5, 2009 9:53am Oct 5, 2009 9:53am
Quoting Spinner
Here's a chart on eur aud.

Even it is a CT trade, I might buy a small amount if it spikes down out of the TL or breaks the trendline up and retests.
Spinner,

Are you posting on the correct thread? This is an indicator - free thread.

If however, you have found some remarkable way to use wiggly lagging lines to foretell price action, then pray, do tell us how it is done.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,075
  • Oct 5, 2009 10:00am Oct 5, 2009 10:00am
Quoting strat
Dave, everything "seems" OK but I think you are jumping the gun and are way ahead of yourself.

Have you successfully traded from support to the 1st resistance and from resistance to the 1st support and produced a growing equity curve over at least 6 months? Until you can do this, forget about any trend trades. Start at the beginning and do it one step at a time.
You're really narrowing down my options, Strat. First no countertrend trades, now no trend trades. LOL.

Thanks for looking at the charts. I'll keep with the very basics like you suggest until I have them down.

Thanks for your patience, my friend.
  • #6,076
  • Oct 5, 2009 10:01am Oct 5, 2009 10:01am
Quoting Naws
we have a nice double bottom on the weekly as shown by patrick

are those two longwicked hammers considered a double bottom also or are they too close?

Its looking pretty bullish right now with the sunday bar also making a hammer like candle more like a doji though. I think its still too counter trend for me and I'd like to see a HH above 90.30

Attachment
“”we have a nice double bottom on the weekly as shown by Patrick””

My weekly is still very bearish which is why I won’t touch it.

“”are those two long wicked hammers considered a double bottom also or are they too close?””

Yes, a double bottom but not an indication to go long. This could be a long, drawn out consolidated bottom where you may see several such bars.

You should not really get excited with longs until you see a strong close above 92.53 and even then I would want to see a HH followed by a HL
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,077
  • Oct 5, 2009 10:09am Oct 5, 2009 10:09am
Quoting PistolDave
You're really narrowing down my options, Strat. First no countertrend trades, now no trend trades. LOL.

Thanks for looking at the charts. I'll keep with the very basics like you suggest until I have them down.

Thanks for your patience, my friend.
That's exactly what you need, Dave if you are to be successful at this. Forget trying to do everything at once and being a Jack of all Maids. FOCUS on one small part and get that down so you become an expert and THEN, add the next bit etc.

So, first things first, 6 months of trading from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support before anything else. Hell, this is what some of the Professionals do except their $/pip values are in triple and quadruple digits - they have no interest in trends. 50 pips @ $1,000/pip is a nice, steady income!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,078
  • Oct 5, 2009 10:13am Oct 5, 2009 10:13am
Quoting alter
Huge line is at 1.5737, and I think there should be line at 1.6000 which is also important level. We had SS on Wednesday with daily trend and now we have CT hammer. Probably we should prefer trend trades as I don't have the best experience with CT trades.
alter
If we had the inside track to someone at a brokers, I would bet there are buy orders sat at psycho 1.6000.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,079
  • Oct 5, 2009 10:18am Oct 5, 2009 10:18am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Here is an example
Craig,

The last bar in your uptrend should be “”LL””
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,080
  • Oct 5, 2009 10:23am Oct 5, 2009 10:23am
Quoting Donadoney
Hi

I am making the assumption that you are saying that this is a pin bar/hammer?

Can you expand on your thoughts about this? Do you still consider this a pin bar/hammer even though its in the middle of weeks of consolidation? And that its appearance is enough to signal the breakout of consolidation and a continuance of the uptrend? The weekly charts shows 7 weeks of going nowhere.

In my experience, I have seen pin bars, especially ones in consolidation, fail a bit.

Your thoughts will be appreciated.
Are you sure you are posting on the correct thread?

This is an INDICATOR FREE thread.

If, however, you have found some remarkable way to use wiggly lines to foretell PRICE ACTION, then pray, do tell us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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