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4% A Day Forever

  • #341
  • Edited 4:32pm Oct 2, 2009 4:15pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting HenryM
Hi Fool. This sounds so silly LOL. If you convert your goal to pips per year, what do you think the number will be?
No, not silly, Henry.

Anyone who has any aspirations of trading for a living has to have some idea of what they can earn so that they can assess the real potential of those dreams. I can tell you that, imho, its all relative, though. If I had the account equiity (and the stones) to trade for $50/pip then 20 pips a day would be fine. So 20 pips/day * 240 trading days/yr = 4,800 pips/yr. Down here at my level in the $10/pip crowd, let's say I need $8k/month to live, save a little & cover taxes and modestly grow an account: $8k/mo * 12 = $96,000/$10 = 9,600 pips/yr. Seems like a lot, huh? I made about 350 pips over the last week: 350 pips/week * 48 trading weeks/yr = 16,800 pips/yr. Voila....ballpark. Obviously, easier said than done, though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #342
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:20pm Oct 2, 2009 4:20pm
Attached chart shows progress since I began this thread. Big spike up is an injection of about $7500; big drop is big stupid loss of about $9k. Interesting to note: hit rate of 72%, average win 6.5 pips, and shorts outnumber longs by more than 2:1.

Nice steady move up from 7/22 to 9/5 negated by one stupid trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: myfxbook10-2-09a.png Size: 175 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #343
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:27pm Oct 2, 2009 4:27pm
The attached chart shows the weeks trades. Still, shorts outnumber longs over 2:1. Hit rate of 75%. 130 trades for the week = about 26 per day.

Average win of 5.44 pips and average loss of 4.9 pips is not good. I need to shrink those losing trades down and pump up the winners a little too.

Good news, though, is that, even playing only mini-lots I increased the account equity by 5.1%.

I like this myfxbook tool.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: myfxbook10-2-09b.png Size: 108 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #344
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:28pm Oct 2, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting The Fool
No, not silly, Henry.

Anyone who has any aspirations of trading for a living has to have some idea of what they can earn so that they can assess the real potential of those dreams. I can tell you that, imho, its all relative, though. If I had the account equiity (and the stones) to trade for $50/pip then 20 pips a day would be fine. So 20 pips/day * 240 trading days/yr = 4,800 pips/yr. Down here at my level in the $10/pip crowd, let's say I need $8k/month to live, save a little & cover taxes and modestly grow an account: $8k/mo * 12 = $96,000/$10...
How many pips do the pros make per year? I'm not talking about the nay sayers on this forum. Let's think bank traders. What is their target for the year? Anyone knows? It has to be substantial, because they work for a boss and yet they drive Ferraris and have private jets. If it is 10 000 per year, I think we can aim for half that because they have more resources ito knowhow and support than we do.

With a decent money management plan, there is no reason why one cannot turn a $1000 into a $million in a year, but doing that while holding a dayjob, will be tough, I think.
  • #345
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:34pm Oct 2, 2009 4:34pm
Fool, sounds like your getting back into the swing of it after some bad times, keep it up dude.

Getting back into it here aswell slowly!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #346
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:07pm Oct 2, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting HenryM
How many pips do the pros make per year? I'm not talking about the nay sayers on this forum. Let's think bank traders. What is their target for the year? Anyone knows? It has to be substantial, because they work for a boss and yet they drive Ferraris and have private jets. If it is 10 000 per year, I think we can aim for half that because they have more resources ito knowhow and support than we do.

With a decent money management plan, there is no reason why one cannot turn a $1000 into a $million in a year, but doing that while holding a dayjob,...
Henry,

I think there is a difference between bank traders and other forex traders who might also be considered "pro". Bank traders are moving money around for the bank and that activity might not always have increasing the bank's equity as a primary goal. Then there are traders who trade forex for hedge funds and they are trading in very large amounts like the bank traders do. Automation is a big part of both those activities and the "trader" is probably not a guy with his finger on a mouse button as you might imagine. Hey, now, most of what I know about this subject I have found right here on FF, so, grain of salt & all - but I hear frequently that bank traders are not as skilled as the better retail forex traders. There are "pro" traders that post here and you can look them up to see how they trade: some that come to mind include: acumen, jhig, H. Reardan, etc.

As with anything in life: always easier to say it than to do it. One thing I have found is that it is easy to score pips but also easy to lose them and so attention to money/risk management is of paramount importance.

Best of Luck!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #347
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:09pm Oct 2, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting Turveyd
Fool, sounds like your getting back into the swing of it after some bad times, keep it up dude.

Getting back into it here aswell slowly!!

Hi T.!

Yes I am still alive and kicking but still hurt from blowing a hole in my account. I am going to climb back up this mountain but I know what it is like to fall now, so, ....carefully.

Good Luck & Best Regards...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #348
  • Oct 3, 2009 7:58am Oct 3, 2009 7:58am
Hey Fool,

Been watching this thread since it was started, and subscribed to it so I can keep up with it when its updated... Interesting guy you are, and honest, I admire that! Most people post the winners then go silent when they blow their account, but not you! I find the topic interesting... 4% Daily, and I think why not? Last Month I made 10% a couple days, and less then that every day in the past month, except for one day when I lost about $50... Or, less then 2% of my account. This week I made 10%, and last month 100% so it's looking pretty good huh!

But here's the catch, I've blown a lot of smaller balances on this account earlier on, and I also opend an account on myfxbook.com and the graphs are pretty sobering. Averaging out since I opened this account several years ago, it shows I've lost 10% a month overall, and made 9% last month. I do believe Im over blowing accounts because it's quite possible for me to close a losing trade now. I realize that the reason I lost so much money over time was I had an unrealistic vision of forex. I thought, and kept thinking, it was relatively easy... and it's not! For me, it takes solid rules, lots of dedicated screen time, and a good dose of iron clad discipline! A shift I've noticed in my trading is that I'm less tunnel visioned now. I am more aware of how much I could lose if the trade goes bad, instead of only how much I could make if it goes right.

So anyways, about that 4% Daily, I still like that idea a lot, but gotta keep my eye on the market and what I can take from it, not get caught up in mundane numbers too much. Every day thats a positive equity day, is a good day in Forex for me!

I wish you luck, and will be watching out for your success here.

Dan
  • #349
  • Edited 1:18pm Oct 3, 2009 12:28pm | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting dbeach777
So anyways, about that 4% Daily, I still like that idea a lot, but gotta keep my eye on the market and what I can take from it, not get caught up in mundane numbers too much. Every day thats a positive equity day, is a good day in Forex for me!

I wish you luck, and will be watching out for your success here.

Dan
Hi Dan,

Thanks for sharing your story. I was never really entirely serious about 4% per day, but now, I actually think that whole line of thought may be counter-productive. If one wants to trade for a living then a certain % per day or a minimum $ target may be necesary, but for the time being, all I want to do is show a smooth equity curve - smoothly rising of course.

Best of luck to you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #350
  • Oct 3, 2009 12:58pm Oct 3, 2009 12:58pm
I've read all of it from beginning to end. Very sobering, and it definitely adds value to the forum. Glad to see you're back at it, wishing you many pips to come.
  • #351
  • Oct 3, 2009 1:22pm Oct 3, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting Intu
I've read all of it from beginning to end. Very sobering, and it definitely adds value to the forum. Glad to see you're back at it, wishing you many pips to come.
Hi Intu! You have an impressive resumé there - I hope you will find a way to share some of your previous trading experience with us here on FF.

Best Regards
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #352
  • Oct 4, 2009 4:29pm Oct 4, 2009 4:29pm
I read PeterCrowns posts here on FF over the weekend and those provided some food for thought. Some of the things he had to say, and I paraphrase:

- Don't limit what the market can give you
- Trading is a business not a job

...Peter was (is?) not a scalper, but traded intraday-longer term, mostly on an inside-bar breakout method (see the DIBS method). He noted many times that the issue of hit-rate could be over-stressed at the expense of profitability. Many of his most profitable trades were built up over days/weeks. But his winners were less than 40% or so....

So....am I trading in a way that allows me to maximize my take of what the market has to give? I have my doubts. Setting up the myfxbook account has allowed me to see what I have been doing and that there is room for improvement. I suspected this before, but having some organized data always helps. I have known that I leave alot of pips on the table when I settle for quick 5-10 pip winners. Often, had I stayed in those trades and scaled further into them, I would have made much more.

I have a win rate of about 75%, not too bad - but win rate must be related to profitability. If my average winner is only 6 pips with a win rate of 75%. would I be more profitable with a win rate of 50% and an average winner of 12 pips? (Assuming losers are equal - 5 pips, say, then yes, of course!) A 40% win rate with an average win of 20 pips? The math always changes. Well, at some point playing these longer term trades would mean a corresponding increase in negative pips per loss, but the logic remains the same: I need to continually assess my methods for profitability first and foremost.

I am not drawing any final conclusions - but I want to always remain open to learning and to improvement. I do know scalping does feel like a job. It is labor intensive and this is going to take its toll over time. I suppose that if I were trading large enough a day or so of scalping per week would be sufficient. So I will start trading the DIBS method on demo to see how that feels & pays...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #353
  • Oct 4, 2009 5:00pm Oct 4, 2009 5:00pm
Many way to skin a goat sir, but yes the longer the hold ( regardless of TF used ) the nearer it becomes a 50/50 game anyway, so if you can accept dropping to 40% and due to this risk you can let trade hold longer and make average 2 - 3 times your loss then your cooking.

The patience to wait for the risk moment where the Risk/Reward potential is in your favour is key to this and walking away with many relatively small losses.

My goal / work has been aimed at 70%+ and 2 - 3's payout, using shorter holds hold periods, fighting the boredom of waiting for that entry is the hardest part.

Trading trend changes based on a 200ema using M1 chart, after UK open, US open and Asia open seems to be very strong at the moment, easier to spot a change to a continue and generally worth alot of points for a relatively small SL.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #354
  • Oct 4, 2009 5:46pm Oct 4, 2009 5:46pm
Quoting Turveyd
Many way to skin a goat sir...
Very true. So, on second thought, I have a long term (relatively speaking) win rate of 70-75% and and my typical win is larger than my typical loss, so hey, is that not a license to print money? If that's not an edge, what is? And I know I can improve on that....

Of course there's the sticky little issue of my periodic, atypical losses. Right, the oversized ones that pop up every 4-6 weeks and wipe out all my hard-won profits. Well, honestly, the last one hurt so much that I believe I may be over that bullshit.

Not to say that I am getting cocky. I don't ever even look at my fun little spreadsheet to see, what, damn, at this rate I'll be at $1,000,000 by Arbor Day - woohoo! In fact, in all frankness, I am walking around this market in fear and shock, its classic PTSD. When I try to imagine future wealth, there's a just a black hole there. Its a repressed future memory. The vicar made me do what?

Seriously, though, this is a state of complicated ambivalence. Somewhere in there is the knowledge that I can do this. I am going to make it happen.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #355
  • Oct 4, 2009 6:23pm Oct 4, 2009 6:23pm
Quoting The Fool
Very true. So, on second thought, I have a long term (relatively speaking) win rate of 70-75% and and my typical win is larger than my typical loss, so hey, is that not a license to print money? If that's not an edge, what is? And I know I can improve on that....

Of course there's the sticky little issue of my periodic, atypical losses. Right, the oversized ones that pop up every 4-6 weeks and wipe out all my hard-won profits. Well, honestly, the last one hurt so much that I believe I may be over that bullshit.

Not to say that...

I've got a similar win ratio and also a similar 1 time only massive account value reduction issue to

I can dig the PTSD, to scared to trade ( not that I have the time thankfully ), why I've gone back to theory and deep thought recently.

Do it yes, but to me it's fighting my sub conscious mind that makes me jump on stupid trades with zero intelligence behind them, all attempts to teach my sub conscious have failed and I find ignoring it very tiresome, the brain is a weird thing how it can just shut down and fail to function.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #356
  • Oct 4, 2009 6:35pm Oct 4, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting Turveyd
I can dig the PTSD, to scared to trade ( not that I have the time thankfully ), why I've gone back to theory and deep thought recently.

Do it yes, but to me it's fighting my sub conscious mind that makes me jump on stupid trades with zero intelligence behind them, all attempts to teach my sub conscious have failed and I find ignoring it very tiresome, the brain is a weird thing how it can just shut down and fail to function.
Well the old saw is that if you can stay alive, stick around long enough to learn through your mistakes then you can make it. But key, crucial, most important is to limit the pain you experience while you are staying alive, because sure, you can stay alive, but what good are you if you're crippled beyond recognition? So I am really only focusing on one thing right now: not screwing up. Getting rid of the mindset and habits that allow me to screw up in the first place. I have to trade for enough $ to keep me interested, but profit is not the primary goal right now.

Good Luck D.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #357
  • Oct 4, 2009 6:39pm Oct 4, 2009 6:39pm
Quoting The Fool
Well the old saw is that if you can stay alive, stick around long enough to learn through your mistakes then you can make it. But key, crucial, most important is to limit the pain you experience while you are staying alive, because sure, you can stay alive, but what good are you if you're crippled beyond recognition? So I am really only focusing on one thing right now: not screwing up. Getting rid of the mindset and habits that allow me to screw up in the first place. I have to trade for enough $ to keep me interested, but profit is not the primary...

Agreed trading on enough to make it real or whats the point, it's just demo trading the traders trading at $0.1 per pip holding for hours / days to make $4 profit isn't for me.

Trading is my likely ownly long term short at being wealthy ish and totally independant remember this is the goal, no more work, no more dealing with people you don't really like and enough money to still do what ever you like.

You too dude!! We shall get there hopefully before we are too old to spend it
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #358
  • Edited 4:54am Oct 5, 2009 4:08am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting The Fool
Well the old saw is that if you can stay alive, stick around long enough to learn through your mistakes then you can make it.
.....Getting rid of the mindset and habits that allow me to screw up in the first place. I have to trade for enough $ to keep me interested, but profit is not the primary goal right now.
Good Luck D.
I keep popping in and at last I have seen the post I've been looking for.

After nearly 5 years at this I realised some time back that continually watching my P/L wasn't the answer. Although the live account is profitable I needed to get back to focussing on picking sound trades where I had taken a good, hard look at the chart and then fully assessed the entry point and a realistic exit point (exits are where the money is made, blah, blah, blah...) and where my stop should be.

Even after all this time I slip into careless trades and have had the market save my arse only because I am a trend trader and so far the trend has been nice to me. I know from past experience that the day will come when that strategy won't work, so I'm running a demo where I'm re-learning selectivity.

Profit isn't the main goal on this demo - picking the best trades I can is though. If I get that right, the profit will come.

Keep it up as I see the mists lifting from your eyes and that means you're at least one step closer to success.
  • #359
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:39am Oct 5, 2009 4:39am
Just checking in to see how things are going.

I've got full confidence in you.
  • #360
  • Oct 5, 2009 5:04am Oct 5, 2009 5:04am
Quoting PeterFM
Keep it up as I see the mists lifting from you eyes and that means you're at least one step closer to success.
Hey Pete.

I kinda feel like I am making progress. There have been some painful kinks to work out but the damage is done & I can still cha-cha. I ain't forgetting what the goal is, though: the filthy lucre. I am going to keep exploring this maze but I don't need to own the most perfect method or make the most perfect trades, I just want to take sick amounts of gelt away. If there be a means better than what I'm doing presently (scalping for daily increase) then I will be looking into that.

Thanks for stopping by and happy trades.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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