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Ichimoku forever

  • #4,561
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:28am Oct 5, 2009 1:28am
Quoting Iskander
Hi Sinner , could u pls explain why are u long on G/yen , I understand that u obviously didnt use ichi for that trade , i just wanted to see ur logic behind that . I mean if u trade intraday , and target certain amount of pips , that makes perfect sense , but if not than there is something that i clearly dont understand , since im holding short on U/yen and G/yen , and it appears to me like we are in a downtrend .
Hi mate, please check the DIBS thread for my justification during Tokyo open. You will see it made plenty of good pips.

lbtrader, sorry I misunderstood you mate thought you meant "how is such a thing possible" but I think what you meant is that E/U and U/C are closely correlated so why would I be in an anti-correlated trade:

Well as I mentioned last week, I trade many mechanical systems and sometimes they trade against each other that is all. Right now I am only long E/U.

Joe GX, yes Aussie. Looks like some data come out today suggesting rate hike tomorrow which I missed until Tokyo close and you mentioned it, but I am still skeptical of a proper rate hike, not without Fed ECB BoE BoJ SNB all doing it at same time.
  • #4,562
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:37am Oct 5, 2009 1:37am
Oh your question was why hold G/J long over down-trend well some/most of my mechanical systems work on a different premise to trend trading, they simply take half the position off at 1:1 R:R so each trade is "free", so I don't care if longer term trend is up or down I just stack free trades until they pay off. I only care about short term trend to get me to free trade.
  • #4,563
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:55am Oct 5, 2009 1:55am
Hi guys,

I want to include you a chart here, even though it is not an Ichi chart. It is an important bigger picture information, so I hope vic does not mind me posting.

I have been watching distribution pattern taking place on the Hang Seng for about a month now. On Friday we finally confirm the pattern, but there was no retrace due to NFP. Tokyo gave fuel to the retrace and it has just completed.

Given the current state of the market, with VIX where it is, Treasury yields what they are, etc, I am suddenly extremely bearish on the entire market.

I think the rally might be over?
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  • #4,564
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:37am Oct 5, 2009 2:37am
Quoting Giny
Hi fxScavenger,

The IchimokuWiki is awesome . I read it again this weekend, particularly the section which talks about using the C-Span as S & R.

I am glad to say I have read the thread and been involved since before 100 pages so congratulations to everyone on 300, particularly Vic for starting and 'maintaining' such an awesome thread.

fxScavenger, I wasn't using the C-Span for my entries before, but after seeing your chart and going over the IchimokuWiki again, I think there is definitely justification to use the C-Span S & R in conjunction...
Hi Giny,

I started trading live part time late in 2006 for a couple of months doubled my account and decided to back off and review my luck.
Got back in late 2007 took another break and then got back in, in 2008, when I opened a 2nd account which I blew up so I took another break until 2009 when my 2 business crashed out. I went back to my first account, which I had left in tact and have been making my living trading full time since February this year. I got real lucky and got in long with the AUD$ and NZD$ on February 27th using a Grid scalping EA I wrote but had to stop using it when the NFA disallowed the use of hedge trades. I would set the EA to trade long only but manually used hedges to manage the drawdowns of retraces - other than that, Grid systems DO NOT USE stops or hardly any other kind of $ management - so you need hedges to control the beast - with Grid trading systems you don't control the stops or the trade, you control the margin. definitely not for the feint of heart.

So while I have been trading for a while and have studied a lot of different Disciplines I still feel I'm not a trader, mostly a gambler, which is why I'm here, for the discipline because I'm trading manually now and I had become very dependent on being able to HEDGE MY MISTAKES and the loss of that trading tool has affected my confidence. That said I am totally willing to offer you my opinion and input when your ready.
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,565
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:56am Oct 5, 2009 2:56am
Quoting sinner-
Rate rise will not happen this month. Maybe next month.
if that happens I will run nude through the thread!
  • #4,566
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:01am Oct 5, 2009 3:01am
Quoting 4xAddict
if that happens I will run nude through the thread!
Hey 4xAddict,

What time is it where you are. It's 1:am my time.
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,567
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:04am Oct 5, 2009 3:04am
Quoting sinner-
Hi guys,

I want to include you a chart here, even though it is not an Ichi chart. It is an important bigger picture information, so I hope vic does not mind me posting.

I have been watching distribution pattern taking place on the Hang Seng for about a month now. On Friday we finally confirm the pattern, but there was no retrace due to NFP. Tokyo gave fuel to the retrace and it has just completed.

Given the current state of the market, with VIX where it is, Treasury yields what they are, etc, I am suddenly extremely bearish on the entire...
That's some great looking set of shoulders you have there!

I share your view and have been waiting for this to happen for a while.

Hoping that the current little bounces on the G/U and G/Y are our entry points for the next leg down!
  • #4,568
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:05am Oct 5, 2009 3:05am
Quoting 4xAddict
if that happens I will run nude through the thread!
Hey bro how are ya. Good pips today?

Which one lets us see you naked? Rate rise or no rise? Admittedly I was basing my statement on the info I had on Friday close rather than the comments which Joe made today based on data released during Tokyo.

But I am still skeptical. Even Credit Suisse is holding their probablity at 46% chance of rise.

I remember last year when RBA scheduled a meeting three days before their normal meeting to drop rates, I knew shit was about to hit the fan I tried to tell my dad who is an economist/finance university lecturer to buy gold (at 700USD with AUDUSD at 0.95) but he wouldn't believe me! Now who's laughing!

Anyway the point is, they got burnt then and they still have the smell of deflation on their fingers, I doubt they will raise rates. But I reserve the right to be wrong

Mechanical shorts GU and EJ, time to go home, been at work for 11 hours!
  • #4,569
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:18am Oct 5, 2009 3:18am
Quoting fxScavenger
Hey 4xAddict,

What time is it where you are. It's 1:am my time.
I am in London mate which is GMT+1 at the moment because of British Summer Time.

I think we go back to GMT at the end of October.

Cheers.
  • #4,570
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:25am Oct 5, 2009 3:25am
Quoting 4xAddict
I am in London mate which is GMT+1 at the moment because of British Summer Time.

I think we go back to GMT at the end of October.

Cheers.
So your just starting your day when I'm ending mine.

Well I'm hitting the sack for a few, I want to be up for the US session.

Night all.
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,571
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:38am Oct 5, 2009 3:38am
Quoting sinner-
Hey bro how are ya. Good pips today?

Which one lets us see you naked? Rate rise or no rise? Admittedly I was basing my statement on the info I had on Friday close rather than the comments which Joe made today based on data released during Tokyo.

But I am still skeptical. Even Credit Suisse is holding their probablity at 46% chance of rise.

I remember last year when RBA scheduled a meeting three days before their normal meeting to drop rates, I knew shit was about to hit the fan I tried to tell my dad who is an economist/finance university...
If they raise them!

There is so much fluff coming out of the large investment banks at the moment about how the recovery is V-shaped and how we could see S&P at 1200, E/U at 1.50 and E/G parity.

Saw an interesting stat last week about how the Dow saw net outflows of funds in August for the first time since January.

We are reaching that point where everyone is talking it up yet the smart money is starting to leave.

I am heading to Shanghai for 10 days this afternoon and I get the feeling we are that close to seeing the next stage of this thing unfold that I am almost tempted to just enter long term shorts on the G/U, G/J and U/J so I don't miss the action while I am on the plane

UK economy has major issues here
- in commercial property all the banks are holding loans that are way underwater but can't afford to take the write downs so they are just rolling over the interest that isn't being paid and increasing the loan totals. The market is at a stand still and there is over GBP80B in loans that come due for refinancing this year alone
- in residential no-one can get loans, even if you have 50% deposits. Huge numbers of people are holding loans that are underwater and the only thing stopping them defaulting is the BoE keeping rates so low - variable rates are 0.8-1% where as fixed at over 5%. As soon as rates get raised the market will plummet again
- vast numbers of companies taken on by P/E money in leveraged buyouts have defaulted and are being managed by the banks. RBS alone shifted 600 people last month to form a new team just to deal with this issue and to manage these companies to ensure loan payments are made. They are therefore adding another fee layer to already crippled businesses and then running them at reduced losses so that they do not have to take the massive write downs on "good will" that does not exist. This is killing all the other retailers in their markets as they cannot compete because they banks aren't running these companies for a profit. Their competitors are now folding and adding to the unemployment spiral which should be great next March/April when all the remaining retailers forward currency contracts are depleted and inflation jumps because the GBP is like monopoly money. Food and goods price inflation is going to crush the consumer here!
- banks in Spain are holding 5years stock in residential houses and apartments so they don't have to take the property loan book writedowns that they should be. Developers are folding let and right because they cannot sell their stocks as the banks offer better finance terms on their own stock of empty dwellings.

Only if the RBA is intent of reading nothing from the state of the global economy will they consider raising rates this year and if they are then it's about time to short the Aus housing market and the ASX for that matter!

V-shaped recovery.........
  • #4,572
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:48am Oct 5, 2009 3:48am
Quoting fxScavenger
So your just starting your day when I'm ending mine.

Well I'm hitting the sack for a few, I want to be up for the US session.

Night all.
This is actually something valuable that we should all use , i mean once twitter signals are established , we could use a schedule so that we cover all sessions , for everyone's benefit . Im personally GMT +3 which is Moscow , im sure with a little effort everyone will benefit from that .
  • #4,573
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:58am Oct 5, 2009 3:58am
Quoting sinner-
Oh your question was why hold G/J long over down-trend well some/most of my mechanical systems work on a different premise to trend trading, they simply take half the position off at 1:1 R:R so each trade is "free", so I don't care if longer term trend is up or down I just stack free trades until they pay off. I only care about short term trend to get me to free trade.
Thanks man , I get it now , will read ur DIBS thread to understand ur system better
  • #4,574
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:59am Oct 5, 2009 3:59am
Quoting 4xAddict
if that happens I will run nude through the thread!
Hey 4X
Look I run a small business (restaurant) in Sydney and every time that I have thought it would be complete madness for the RBA to raise rates they have done just that - I'm hoping like hell they don't but i bet they just can't help themselves. It aint like England over here! And every polly and business leader seems to think that cause the equity markets have had a good rally then everything must be hunky dory domestically. it isn't and they will be wrong but I bet they put em up and then have to retract the rise pretty soon afterwards. if that Hang Seng chart is correct maybe sooner than later!!
The RBa is still convinced that China is going to continue to fuel our resources boom and that consumer spending will overheat with interest rates at record lows and they are also concerned with house prices which have also increased. It is completely crazy over here and they do have a pretty tight juggling act - I tip .25% even though that will just choke local consumption.
I could be completely wrong and then I will actually think the RBA does know what ti is doing but i have a fair degree of trepidation.
Are you getting the gear off on a rise 4X? we shall see
  • #4,575
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:01am Oct 5, 2009 4:01am
Quoting Iskander
This is actually something valuable that we should all use , i mean once twitter signals are established , we could use a schedule so that we cover all sessions , for everyone's benefit . Im personally GMT +3 which is Moscow , im sure with a little effort everyone will benefit from that .
Hi Iskander,

The main thing with any system is to trade all signals that it gives so that your trade expectancy is as high as possible. Sinner has posted a few times about this.

Essentially if you have a great system that has a 65% success rate which is pretty good really however you sleep even 6 hours per day. You effectively lower your trade expectancy and what in theory provides a 65% success rate may in fact become well below 50% because during your periods of down time you may be missing the best trades that allow your system to be as successful as it is, thereby exacerbating the poor trades.

Expectancy is one of the most important attributes to any good trading system and this is why you find the more experienced guys looking to trade longer TFs all the time (Sinner and Vic are always at it). They know that even if they have the world's best short term trading system, they can never be there in front of the screen to take every opportunity that presents itself which thereby reduces the success rate of their system.

They strive to develop longer TF systems that often only require monitoring once an hour/4hr or even daily so that they can make every trade that presents itself without having to make excuses to leave meetings at work or wake up at 4.23 when a tweet comes in.

We are looking to use twitter to distribute great trade opportunities however these will be on longer TFs and therefore not as regular as shorter TF trades so your expectancy of being able to make each trade no matter where your timezone is will be greatly increased.

This is where we will really start to reap the true benefits from this system.

Cheers
  • #4,576
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:03am Oct 5, 2009 4:03am
Quoting 4xAddict
If they raise them!

There is so much fluff coming out of the large investment banks at the moment about how the recovery is V-shaped and how we could see S&P at 1200, E/U at 1.50 and E/G parity.

Saw an interesting stat last week about how the Dow saw net outflows of funds in August for the first time since January.

We are reaching that point where everyone is talking it up yet the smart money is starting to leave.

I am heading to Shanghai for 10 days this afternoon and I get the feeling we are that close to seeing the next stage of this...
Once again very deep and informative analysis . I followed ur advice regarding VSA man , now after using it along with kumo , picture starts to look a lot more clear , thanks !
  • #4,577
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:10am Oct 5, 2009 4:10am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Iskander,

The main thing with any system is to trade all signals that it gives so that your trade expectancy is as high as possible. Sinner has posted a few times about this.

Essentially if you have a great system that has a 65% success rate which is pretty good really however you sleep even 6 hours per day. You effectively lower your trade expectancy and what in theory provides a 65% success rate may in fact become well below 50% because during your periods of down time you may be missing the best trades that allow your system to be as successful...
I totally agree that there is a lot of missed opportunities and great signals , which lower our expectancy rate , and ultimately our income . Im also long term trader ( trying to become one acutally ) so i totally support the idea of tweets on longer timeframes
  • #4,578
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:22am Oct 5, 2009 4:22am
Quoting Joe GX
Hey 4X
Look I run a small business (restaurant) in Sydney and every time that I have thought it would be complete madness for the RBA to raise rates they have done just that - I'm hoping like hell they don't but i bet they just can't help themselves. It aint like England over here! And every polly and business leader seems to think that cause the equity markets have had a good rally then everything must be hunky dory domestically. it isn't and they will be wrong but I bet they put em up and then have to retract the rise pretty soon afterwards....
Hi Joe,

It will happen if they raise them.

I am an Aussie ex-pat. I run a business in Hong Kong and have spent 2.5 out of the past 5 years split between Aus and China. My company is one of the largest suppliers of consumer medical products into Aus and even with our ageing population, the type of average product basket and average product basket value seen by my distribution partners in Aus has changed and reduced quite markedly.

What the media trumpets are really simply information inefficiencies in China that make things look better than they are. For example the copper price in China has flown up however this is not only fuelled by actual chinese infrastructure demand. Local chinese investors have been borrowing money from the banks due to their loosened lending criteria and speculating in the copper market by purchasing actual copper and putting it in their factories as a store of wealth, not an input for production. This shows that the average chinese factory owner has a very bleak view of the economic future ahead and is trying to find other ways to hold onto his/her wealth.

Just wait till the copper price comes off a little and they want to start liquidating these holdings by selling it back into the market. Copper prices will tank and chiense demand from Aus will evaporate. Conservative estimates suggest there are personal speculative holdings there in excess of 50,000 tonnes however the real number is believed to be almost 3 times that amount.

Also, the same chinese investors are borrowing from their bank managers under the guise of using the extra funds to increase factory output capacity or up-spec their production technology however they are channelling all these funds into the stock market. They think "why should I run my factory 24/7 for another 7 years to pay off this plant and machinery investment when I can speculate on a new IPO and double my money". A valid opinion however it is extremely unhealthy when unsophisticated investors start throwing large amounts of borrowed funds into an already over heating market.

Look what happened in Aus in 2008 when the government had their superannuation amnesty where people going into retirement could put up to $1M into their superfunds without penalty. People were borrowing as much as possible against their homes in a bid to take advantage of this. That turned out to be quite a poor idea!

These are just two of the many reasons why China is not saving Australia! Also, the fact that the Chinese economic figures printed are whatever the leadership deems best for maintaining order in the middle kingdom rather than honestly producing real numbers.

Economists can carry on about chinese domestic demand all they want however the real demand is where the gov stimulus monies are being put to assist consumer purchases such as car purchase and whitegood purchase contribution schemes. The average person in China living in the city has seen a very fast increase in their personal wealth in the past few years however their welfare and healthcare systems have not increased with this growth. People do not want to splash out on all manner of retail goods because they need to be a lot more mindful of the times ahead and their own retirement. Also, chinese families look after grandparents, there is no nursing home infrastructure like in Australia for the general population.

This is why I hold such a firm belief that AUD rates will remain the same. Stevens may come out talking in hawkish tones however, to raise rates now is complete madness and I'm not sure that they are that stupid. I would be interested to hear what Access Economics think should be done. Those guys have outperformed the government economists in Aus throughout this crisis.

Cheers.
  • #4,579
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:52am Oct 5, 2009 4:52am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Joe,

It will happen if they raise them.

I am an Aussie ex-pat. I run a business in Hong Kong and have spent 2.5 out of the past 5 years split between Aus and China. My company is one of the largest suppliers of consumer medical products into Aus and even with our ageing population, the type of average product basket and average product basket value seen by my distribution partners in Aus has changed and reduced quite markedly.

What the media trumpets are really simply information inefficiencies in China that make things look better than...
Amen
And over here in Aus the banks are said to be so strong because they have had access in the past six months to superfund money by way of equity raisings. Sure wish i could do a little equity raising now an again by issuing a little prospectus saying how totally HOT I am - what a load of BS
  • #4,580
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:59am Oct 5, 2009 4:59am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Joe,

It will happen if they raise them.

I am an Aussie ex-pat. I run a business in Hong Kong and have spent 2.5 out of the past 5 years split between Aus and China. My company is one of the largest suppliers of consumer medical products into Aus and even with our ageing population, the type of average product basket and average product basket value seen by my distribution partners in Aus has changed and reduced quite markedly.

What the media trumpets are really simply information inefficiencies in China that make things look better than...
So on to more mundane matters, Sinner was a little bullish on the US/Jpy this morning. In light of your comments you are bearish. Reckon this market will pop over 90 tonight or sink?
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