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  • #6,041
  • Oct 3, 2009 4:35pm Oct 3, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting Sinan
On my chart I see a swing low there from around the 21st April (more clear on the daily), the date matches up with the level drawn on the GBPUSD chart (although charts should be kept seperate).

I would not of drawn the Fib this way normally...

Perhaps I do not see the major difference between the charts...I wanted to put it up to provoke some debate...
I do see the swing you are referring to, I just don't think this is the correct way to draw your Fibs.

For example by drawing them the way you have done on EU you have left out the area below to the major swing low which is 500 pips. So any retracement of the major move is now 500 pips off IMO because your Fib is not accounting for a retracement of the real swing low which occurred 500 pips below your 0% line.
  • #6,042
  • Oct 3, 2009 4:47pm Oct 3, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting Sinan
I am referring to just the last three candlesticks on the weekly, only on those I see HH and HL, from your diagram two HH HL's

Is that too few sticks to look at?

I do see that as too few candles to be looking at as we are not trending at the moment in this pair. Not on the D1 or W1 charts. The Immediate trend is down and we have entered a consolidation area.

Strat may have a different view on this but thats the way i see it for now.
  • #6,043
  • Oct 3, 2009 4:48pm Oct 3, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
I do see the swing you are referring to, I just don't think this is the correct way to draw your Fibs.

For example by drawing them the way you have done on EU you have left out the area below to the major swing low which is 500 pips. So any retracement of the major move is now 500 pips off IMO because your Fib is not accounting for a retracement of the real swing low which occurred 500 pips below your 0% line.
I agree its just post #6017, does Strat's chart not have the same issue?
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #6,044
  • Oct 3, 2009 4:49pm Oct 3, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting Donadoney
Hi

I am making the assumption that you are saying that this is a pin bar/hammer?

Can you expand on your thoughts about this? Do you still consider this a pin bar/hammer even though its in the middle of weeks of consolidation? And that its appearance is enough to signal the breakout of consolidation and a continuance of the uptrend? The weekly charts shows 7 weeks of going nowhere.

In my experience, I have seen pin bars, especially ones in consolidation, fail a bit.

Your thoughts will be appreciated.
It should be good for 100pips, but you would risk 200.
  • #6,045
  • Oct 3, 2009 4:54pm Oct 3, 2009 4:54pm
Attachment
Quoting Sinan
I agree its just post #6017, does Strat's chart not have the same issue?
Its just come together I see what you mean. Attached is how it should look. Thanks.

Swing low to swing high.

Just redrawn again from last swing low to swing high...will spend some time on Fibs now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_03_oct_09_weekly3.gif Size: 13 KB
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #6,046
  • Oct 3, 2009 5:05pm Oct 3, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting strat
Danny boy, I have lost count the number of times I have told you this:

TOO MUCH READING & TOO MUCH THINKING!

Reading your posts confuses the bejabers in me so from now on, unless it is technical, I'm skipping your posts.

How do you not understand that HUGE THICK LINE on GBPUSD that Alexandra insisted, yes insisted (now I feel like I have 2 wives!) I draw.

What more does it need to tell you?

Look at Aston Dan's example again and AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN until you get it into...
Huge line is at 1.5737, and I think there should be line at 1.6000 which is also important level. We had SS on Wednesday with daily trend and now we have CT hammer. Probably we should prefer trend trades as I don't have the best experience with CT trades.
alter
  • #6,047
  • Oct 3, 2009 5:05pm Oct 3, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting Sinan
I agree its just post #6017, does Strat's chart not have the same issue?

I actually do see this a bit differently, Strat has drawn his Fibs from a swing low to a swing High within the Immediate trend(which i agree is very subjective but it is how many including mysef draw Fibs from time to time) Your Fib was drawn from a swing high where the top formed from the big move DOWN to what i see as a swing low of the start of the new immediate UP trend we are in now.

This is probably a waste of time discussing this so maybe we should just wait and see what Strat says. I could very well be seeing this wrong myself i just haven't seen them drawn like that before.
  • #6,048
  • Oct 3, 2009 5:17pm Oct 3, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
I actually do see this a bit differently, Strat has drawn his Fibs from a swing low to a swing High within the Immediate trend(which i agree is very subjective but it is how many including mysef draw Fibs from time to time) Your Fib was drawn from a swing high where the top formed from the big move DOWN to what i see as a swing low of the start of the new immediate UP trend we are in now.

This is probably a waste of time discussing this so maybe we should just wait and see what Strat says. I could very well be seeing this wrong myself i just haven't...
Yep in 6025 I clearly drew my Fib incorrectly...I need to mull over 6021 a bit more and go easy on my Fib indicator

Thanks for your help.
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #6,049
  • Oct 3, 2009 9:11pm Oct 3, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting Sinan
I also subscribe to MoneyWeek (and got that e-mail), I also get the EW newsletter (which has been the trigger for two terrible trades this year)...I think I have started to turn the volume down on this stuff and now it is just starting to help me understand what other views are out there...but should we read it? Somewhere deep in our minds is it influencing what we are seeing on the charts? Do those e-mails trigger bad trades (for me they have in the past).

Should we just cut this stuff out of our lives (other peoples trade opinions) and just...
When I was working as a portfolio manager for a bank a decade ago, there was a technical analyst in our team. We were trading stocks and bonds for high net worth clients and guess what, that technical analyst was the most successful in his predictions and recommendations and one day when I asked him how he was doing that, his simple answer was " I don't know what that company is manufacturing or who is on board of directors or what the economy is doing, I am just reading the charts".
Simple is that.
  • #6,050
  • Oct 3, 2009 9:39pm Oct 3, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting strat
So, we end the week with 7 JPY pairs all with bullish candles.

The last time this happened, we......................no free meals here! Go back and read the thread or study history.
What the odd, see usdjpy weekly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyw.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #6,051
  • Oct 3, 2009 9:56pm Oct 3, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting foredog
Not a smart ass at all, if you check the few posts i've put here and the ones on Trade2win under the same user name you'd see i'm
usually trying to help people who are confuse or want help etc. I was actually trying to be helpful to anyone who was looking at lower TF's , but the point was lost, not out to start an internet argument as that would be pointless, leave it there as a misunderstanding rather than thinking anything more sinister.
foredog its correct,when you are pointing to something trying to help may, be the point will be lost and open to misunderstanding. thats normal and healthy(some ppl use bad words thats is not good or healthy).
anyway its good as it reached to that healthy agreement.
  • #6,052
  • Oct 3, 2009 10:06pm Oct 3, 2009 10:06pm
Quoting Grimweasel
A reminder for all.....
grimweasel its nice curve , good to be saved.
  • #6,053
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:41am Oct 4, 2009 10:41am
Quoting rockk
grimweasel its nice curve , good to be saved.
LOL @ RockK -Yeah lovely equity curve; just don't have a curve inverse to that!

BlackEagle - thanks for that post. Tells a thousand stories that I no longer ever need to read! Unsubscribed from Financial Times!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,054
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:06pm Oct 4, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting Grimweasel
LOL @ RockK -Yeah lovely equity curve; just don't have a curve inverse to that!

BlackEagle - thanks for that post. Tells a thousand stories that I no longer ever need to read! Unsubscribed from Financial Times!
Grim

I havent read a daily paper or serious (current affairs) radio/tv regularly for 7 years. They made me angry. Feel helpless as I couldnt shoot politicians. Waste of time, money & creates negative energy. Financial articles are all based on OLD news or there is a hidden agenda. Journalists are NOT thorough in research. They are there to SELL newspapers. If they recommend shares/trades/funds then the herd pile in. Too late! Better to do the opposite & wait for the dust to settle. I recommend you try not to read ANY papers (except the sport or enjoy the photos).

I do read Money Week. I really enjoy the fact that it it contrarian & common sense & well written. However I would NOT consider trading from it, even tho they are contrarian by nature.

Better to watch candles! I am not great at this. Yet! This is why I am here. However I am patient & Ive learned to watch & wait as there is always a better time to enter than when OTHER people say so.
  • #6,055
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:14pm Oct 4, 2009 2:14pm
Eur aud weekly has closed with a CT pin bar. MOnthly has eight down bars and now it s kinda basing. Daily in a triangle.

Of course that it needs waiting, but a nice trade could come here.....

Spinner

A fool is a fool that doesn't know he is a fool
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #6,056
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:24pm Oct 4, 2009 2:24pm
Even with SNB intervention eur chf spike dowm this week and is knocking at 1.5076 area like a spring lover 1.5012 is next floor down.

Spinner

A fool is a fool that doesn't know he is a fool
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #6,057
  • Oct 4, 2009 5:35pm Oct 4, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting Barry Cade
Grim

I havent read a daily paper or serious (current affairs) radio/tv regularly for 7 years. They made me angry. Feel helpless as I couldnt shoot politicians. Waste of time, money & creates negative energy. Financial articles are all based on OLD news or there is a hidden agenda. Journalists are NOT thorough in research. They are there to SELL newspapers. If they recommend shares/trades/funds then the herd pile in. Too late! Better to do the opposite & wait for the dust to settle. I recommend you try not to read ANY papers (except the sport...
Thanks Barry - I must confess to having to read papers as part of my job but I try and skip the financial bits these days so as not to affect the trading.

You all have my permission to block/ignore me should I post any news related tripe again!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,058
  • Oct 4, 2009 6:22pm Oct 4, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting Donadoney
Hi

I am making the assumption that you are saying that this is a pin bar/hammer?

Can you expand on your thoughts about this? Do you still consider this a pin bar/hammer even though its in the middle of weeks of consolidation? And that its appearance is enough to signal the breakout of consolidation and a continuance of the uptrend? The weekly charts shows 7 weeks of going nowhere.

In my experience, I have seen pin bars, especially ones in consolidation, fail a bit.

Your thoughts will be appreciated.
If you had read and UNDERSTOOD the thread and been on The Path of Learning, you would know the answers to your questions.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,059
  • Oct 4, 2009 6:34pm Oct 4, 2009 6:34pm
All those discussing Fibonacci retracements on GBPUSD

I explained about this on Post #6021 – please read AND UNDERSTAND this post – had you done so, there would be no need for further discussion.

Also, remember, Fibonacci retracements are NOT a reason for taking a trade – they are only there to CONFIRM PASR.

Also, remember, the currency pairs have their own individual personalities – they retrace at different Fibonacci levels and some do not retrace at all.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,060
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:55pm Oct 4, 2009 8:55pm
Cable dealing with one of those nice thick lines at the moment....let's see if this beast will behave for once.
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