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  • #6,001
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:56pm Oct 2, 2009 9:56pm
Building a solid base or taking a rest before…………………………?

Och weel, laddies, that’s it fer the noo,

Lang may yer lum reek!



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,002
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:58pm Oct 2, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting yuan83
SHS? or will it move up again
Yes
  • #6,003
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:00pm Oct 2, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting Alexandra
Yes
I agree! I think one must agree when one is faced with such a predicament
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,004
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:01pm Oct 2, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting strat
Building a solid base or taking a rest before…………………………?

Och weel, laddies, that’s it fer the noo,

Lang may yer lum reek!


That one is on my hold for 52 weeks list.
  • #6,005
  • Edited Oct 3, 2009 7:17am Oct 2, 2009 10:09pm | Edited Oct 3, 2009 7:17am
Fundamentally speaking, I believe it may be time to be on alert for a breakdown of the recent correlations. That means Strat has the floor in assessing each pair on it's own merits. It is important in these instances to free oneself from overthought about inter-relationships to emphasize only the best looking trades.
  • #6,006
  • Oct 3, 2009 4:39am Oct 3, 2009 4:39am
Quoting strat
So, the point you are making is ?????????????????????????????????...
I was just making a point that may interested some who have looked at smaller TF's but obviously that is not allowed here, except for when you decide to mention you're attempts at trading small timeframes. Guess it must be one rule for you another rule for us.

It was meant as a little nudge to newbies to show that less is more.

Don't quite see how this is not positive or constructive. There is nothing negative or wrong there, just a few statistics and the comment at the end was meant as a laugh as i have been reading your thread since you started it. Shame i used to think you had a lot to say but this reply seems almost arrogant to me. Maybe caught you on bad day.
  • #6,007
  • Oct 3, 2009 7:39am Oct 3, 2009 7:39am
Quoting foredog
I was just making a point that may interested some who have looked at smaller TF's but obviously that is not allowed here, except for when you decide to mention you're attempts at trading small timeframes. Guess it must be one rule for you another rule for us.

It was meant as a little nudge to newbies to show that less is more.

Don't quite see how this is not positive or constructive. There is nothing negative or wrong there, just a few statistics and the comment at the end was meant as a laugh as i have been reading your thread since you started...
“”I was just making a point that may interested some who have looked at smaller TF's but obviously that is not allowed here””

NOW, you’ve got the point – This thread is for trading the Daily time frame and above – NOTHING LESS!

“” except for when you decide to mention you're attempts at trading small timeframes””

I do that to show the DIFFICULTIES in trading shorter time frames, the poor ROI, the length of screen time and the stress it creates

“”Guess it must be one rule for you another rule for us.”

You’ve got the point again. I make no secret of this. I frequently post “Don’t trade as I do, trade as I teach”. I am teaching BASIC trading on here while I, am trading advanced techniques.

“”It was meant as a little nudge to newbies to show that less is more.””

They don’t need your nudge – if you have read the thread you should have come across my posts where I say LESS IS MORE. In fact, if you were observant you would have read the words below Grimweasel’s signature.

LESS IS MORE also refers to screen time and stress NOT TIMEFRAME. In fact it works in reverse – the higher the time frame , the more ROI.

“”Don't quite see how this is not positive or constructive””

This was DESTRUCTIVE and DISRUPTIVE trying to incite or persuade people to trade shorter time frames

“” just a few statistics””

One isolated example does NOT represent statistics. Statistics is all about collecting and analyzing data over a certain period of time such that the time element does not influence the outcome of the result.

“” Maybe caught you on bad day.””

Bad days are not a part of my life – I have good days and better days!

I just caught someone trying to be a smart ass. I am not the person smart asses want to pick a fight with.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,008
  • Oct 3, 2009 8:22am Oct 3, 2009 8:22am
Last week, as an exercise, I did 8 counter trend trades, 5 of which were losers with a double pip total. These were more than adequately covered with my trend trades but I would be double pips better off had I not taken these counter trend trades.

Remember, lost pips are LOST pips – forget them, move on, there is nothing you can do about them, take it on the chin. What you must do, however, is go through each trade and find out where you went wrong and make sure you don’t repeat the same mistake. Other than that, don’t do anything else. Nothing that you can do will bring back lost pips – MOVE ON! Do not engage in a fight with your gremlins and demons, little men and guys in the mirror – make sure THEY know YOU are in CONTROL.

Again, trade in the direction of the trend. If you don’t know what the trend is DON’T TRADE!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,009
  • Oct 3, 2009 10:20am Oct 3, 2009 10:20am
Quoting strat
So, the point you are making is ?????????????????????????????????

Using your data, the point I make is:

M15 timeframe gets 58 trades for a 366 pip return

H1 timeframe gets 17 trades for a 648 pip return

Now extend these out further using the same ratios:

H4 timeframe gets 12 trades for a 1147 pip return

D1 timeframe gets 8 trades for a 2030 pip return

[b][font=Arial]Now...
Yes..you got it Strat.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #6,010
  • Oct 3, 2009 10:26am Oct 3, 2009 10:26am
Right then - my weekly analysis of the charts tells me one thing to do with GBP cross pairs.

Then I STILL have this bloody wretched fundamental view of the GBP and the governments bad handling of the economy yada yah ad nauseum

This causes the Weasel conflict. Funnymentals always drive a currency/ share etc in the long run surely? So what to do when one has said conflicting info?

Remember that I'm a technical trader and I trade PRICE ACTION, not GDP, Non-Farm, M3 Money Supply, Account deficits etc

Let the charts show me the way to freedom........

(Incidentally, for those in the UK you must subscribe to MoneyWeek - essential weekly reading. Good piece this week on why GBP Sterling is doomed thanks to the government etc BUT how some traders may be pricing in higher interest rates for the GBP, to stop foreign investors fleeing the country if the IMF were to downgrade it from AAA status. It just goes to show that there are so many views out there and so much we don't know. The known unknowns as Rumsfeld put it. Further re-enforcement to only trade what the chart is telling you and eliminate any news/info you THINK you know!)
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,011
  • Oct 3, 2009 10:36am Oct 3, 2009 10:36am
Quoting Grimweasel
Right then - my weekly analysis of the charts tells me one thing to do with GBP cross pairs.

Then I STILL have this bloody wretched fundamental view of the GBP and the governments bad handling of the economy yada yah ad nauseum

This causes the Weasel conflict....
“”Good piece this week on why GBP Sterling is doomed””

When you start hearing this, seeing this and the talking heads are saying this then you know Joe Public is jumping in with both feet (Fools Rush In) and the sheep are near the edge of the cliff. This is the time when the big boys………?

Who do we follow? The big boys or Joe Public?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,012
  • Oct 3, 2009 10:51am Oct 3, 2009 10:51am
Quoting strat
When you start hearing this...
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And by finished, i mean dead as a dodo, sunk, kaput etc etc
  • #6,013
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:03am Oct 3, 2009 11:03am
Quoting AstonDan
Attachment

And by finished, i mean dead as a dodo, sunk, kaput etc etc
Magic, Dan, magic! Brilliant example.

What do they say?

BUY the rumour, SELL the news
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,014
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:04am Oct 3, 2009 11:04am
“”The Saturn-Uranus opposition reversal continues. This is yet another example of the effectiveness of Financial Astrology as a valuable tool for market timing. The third of five passages of this powerful 45-year geocosmic cycle unfolded on September 15””

September 15 doesn’t mean diddley on any of MY charts!

“”This signature has an outstanding correspondence to primary cycles (usually crests) in the U.S. stock market within 10 trading days, and usually six days or less. What is more impressive, however, is that it has a 100% historical correlation to 4-year or greater cycles in U.S. stock indices during the entire period it is in effect. Along with the conjunction, it is the only signature we know of that has a 100% correlation. And since a 4-year cycle low occurred on March 6-10, 2009, this signature is again accurate.””

Only TIME will tell.

“”Many stock markets of the world started to rally early last week, with a large number testing their yearly highs of September 17-23. In a couple of cases, new highs were actually made, thus creating multiple instances of intermarket bearish divergence. This occurs when one index in a region makes a new high, but others in that same region do not. This is particularly noteworthy when it happens nearby to a geocosmic critical reversal date, or a major geocosmic signature, such as the Saturn-Uranus opposition of September 15.””

It occurred because there were MORE SELLERS than BUYERS in the other regions!

“”In other markets, the September 17 highs in Gold and Silver held as well, as did the September 23 high in the Euro and Swiss Franc currencies. However, most disturbing was the U.S. Dollar falling to its lowest level against the Japanese Yen in over 14 years. Market commentators are trying to put a positive spin on this development, saying that it helps our trade balance throughout the world. But at some point other nations will complain that it adversely affects their trade balance, as well as their desire to invest in U.S. markets. In fact, the complaints have already begun, and with transiting Pluto and Saturn to soon adversely aspect Jupiter (trade) in the USA chart, this disturbance could grow if something isn’t done soon to support the Dollar. Pluto is already in opposition to Venus (currency) in the USA chart, with Saturn to begin the same in November. Could there be a run on the U.S. Dollar, with a serious movement to remove its status as the world currency standard? The principles of Financial Astrology indeed support such a possibility in the next 2 years. But as always, just because you have a “bankruptcy aspect” doesn’t mean you have to go bankrupt. You just have to make sure you don’t take on too much debt – more than you can afford – and avoid risky financial decisions. I can’t say that the United States government has adhered – or is adhering - to such discipline, so there is cause for concern.””

Before you accept any of this, understand one thing:

The writer of this is in the business of SELLING newsletters – he is part of the media conspiracy – they tell you what you want to hear. In cult and Dan Brown language, it is called brain washing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,015
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:06am Oct 3, 2009 11:06am
It's still hard to reconcile the internal left brain / right brain conflict though. I forget which side delivers what but we tend to 'anchor' to recent information - in the case of Sterling the anchor would be 'sell' due to lot of red on the charts and media reports of the pound's demise.

But then the chart sings a different story - or (back to reasoning side of brain) is this just post NFP carnage?

Well, both Cable and gbpyen (h4) have a similar 'bottom' look to eurgbp a few weeks ago, and look what happened after that! Plus gbpyen is showing us not one, but two gifts - early Xmas pressies from heaven!!

We have a low then an arch up and back down again but this time we have a higher low. This allows the drawing of a DSRI. Coupled with the daily Shooting Star on eurgbp a few days ago the picture is strongly skewed

I prefer to wait the for BO from the daily chart 'BarbWire' on Cable though - let the beeyatch show her hand!


So with all those long wicks on the JPY crosses perhaps the Japanese National Bank is not as 'passive and docile' as they may have reported??
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,016
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:13am Oct 3, 2009 11:13am
Quoting Grimweasel
It's still hard to reconcile the internal left brain / right brain conflict though. I forget which side delivers what but we tend to 'anchor' to recent information - in the case of Sterling the anchor would be 'sell' due to lot of red on the charts and media reports of the pound's demise.

But then the chart sings a different story - or (back to reasoning side of brain) is this just post NFP carnage?

Well, both Cable and gbpyen have a similar 'bottom' look to eurgbp a few weeks ago, and look what happened after that!

We have a low then an arch...
Danny boy, I have lost count the number of times I have told you this:

TOO MUCH READING & TOO MUCH THINKING!

Reading your posts confuses the bejabers in me so from now on, unless it is technical, I'm skipping your posts.

How do you not understand that HUGE THICK LINE on GBPUSD that Alexandra insisted, yes insisted (now I feel like I have 2 wives!) I draw.

What more does it need to tell you?

Look at Aston Dan's example again and AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN until you get it into your thick and confused head!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,017
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:25am Oct 3, 2009 11:25am
Danny boy, if that HUGE THICK line doesn't do it, will this HELP?

Oh wait a minute, don't tell me, could it be? Could this be at the same level as that HUGE THICK line?

If it is, then don't the experts have a fancy name for it?

Does it mean anything?

Sure! Ignore it and believe what you see and read!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,018
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:32am Oct 3, 2009 11:32am
Quoting strat
Danny boy, I have lost count the number of times I have told you this:

TOO MUCH READING & TOO MUCH THINKING!

Reading your posts confuses the bejabers in me so from now on, unless it is technical, I'm skipping your posts.

How do you not understand that HUGE THICK LINE on GBPUSD that Alexandra insisted, yes insisted (now I feel like I have 2 wives!) I draw.

What more does it need to tell you?

Look at Aston Dan's example again and AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN until you get...
LOL - Thanks again Strat - Made me chuckle - I was trying to show the internal conflicts that we have as new price action traders. I'm sure we all still suffer from them from time to time? Fully understood before the addition of the red line too - it was trying to show how much 'chaff' and conflicting info there is to 'filter-out' as a PA trader.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,019
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:55am Oct 3, 2009 11:55am
Quoting strat
“”...
Not a smart ass at all, if you check the few posts i've put here and the ones on Trade2win under the same user name you'd see i'm usually trying to help people who are confuse or want help etc. I was actually trying to be helpful to anyone who was looking at lower TF's , but the point was lost, not out to start an internet argument as that would be pointless, leave it there as a misunderstanding rather than thinking anything more sinister.
  • #6,020
  • Oct 3, 2009 11:56am Oct 3, 2009 11:56am
Quoting strat
Danny boy, if that HUGE THICK line doesn't do it, will this HELP?

Oh wait a minute, don't tell me, could it be? Could this be at the same level as that HUGE THICK line?

If it is, then don't the experts have a fancy name for it?

Does it mean anything?

Sure! Ignore it and believe what you see and read!
Strat - your Fibs - do you track them up from the last low each time? I always thought that one drew them from the lows to the high on the chart window you had at the time?
Trade less and become more profitable!
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