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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,481
  • Oct 2, 2009 8:37am Oct 2, 2009 8:37am
Quoting yen44x
Let's have another contest and vote on it.
...

You are the king man lol... I'm still smoking from that burn
  • #4,482
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:01am Oct 2, 2009 9:01am
Quoting yen44x
We always managed to combine serious trade talk with a healthy dose of humor on the old OzFX thread, and most seemed to enjoy it. However, it seems to bother some traders on this thread. I tried to cut down on the humor to some degree and the google photos to a great degree, but apparently it still remains an issue.

I respect Yonnie's contributions greatly, and if humor is preventing posts from him on a more regular basis, that's the last thing I want. So, I will cease and desist except for the occasional post regarding the system and nothing...
Yen, you got to be kidding.
  • #4,483
  • Edited 9:51am Oct 2, 2009 9:10am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting yonnie
Yen, thank you for your vote of confidence.......

The humour is really not the issue.....I like it as much as anybody else. So dont stop joking, but you might incorporate it in your trading posts.

BUT, if you get it page after page and there is no contribution on the system (yeah well its a weekly system and we`re stopped out and we have nothing else to do) while everybody knows there is a far better system out there, that is what gets up my nose.

I think at the time you and I were about the only ones contributing anything worthwhile apart...
FYI, Yen offers some of the best analysis this thread has, albeit it may be off color at times. And Yen is like a 24 hour David Letterman show. He hosts the U.S. president for an interview following an hillarious monolog. For those who don't know who Letterman is you are missing out. Enough of the accolades and on with the show...
  • #4,484
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:05pm Oct 2, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting 11andy11
He also said that the new system takes less trades.
exactly, so he now takes only 1 trade a week, which was clear from backtesting some-one did.
That change also was not yet incorporated in the system by the time Ace left.

So sorry guys, I dont think Ace`s changes to the system are earth shattering, but were already mentioned in this thread.
Lower stop loss, 1 trade a week and SL to BE if TP1 should make Aces` system at least 3x as profitable as he started out with.

I thank Ace for generously sharing his system here on FF.

Can his system still be improved?
Yes, I feel that is still possible.

One area is how many pips to lock in when price is out of the box towards TP4.
Its amazing how volatile the G/J pair is. It can go up 400 pips and come all the way back to take you out at BE. From my backtesting so far it seems that about 30 pips is good to lock in.

Another area is when to take profit.
Ace took his profit at 4x the box, unless he saw price stalling.
I prefer to take profit as part of a weekly ATR, so that we can talk about the same goal in high ATR as well as low ATR weeks. Ace also was talking about weekly ATR, although he did not use it (yet?) for his TP.
It might be useful to lower the TP pips, so you can grab the profits in more weeks, but again backtesting will provide the most efficient TP level.

These are 2 areas which can raise profits, so if some people are willing to backtest from 29 March till the present I`ll be grateful and we can compare results to weed out any mistakes.

Has anybody found other areas of interest?

Timeframe: I have a different tf to take my trades from and its visible on the hourly chart. Sometimes the entry price is the same as the 4H box, sometimes not. Generally the box is smaller than the 4H box.
Thats my puzzle for you guys for this weekend
  • #4,485
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:37pm Oct 2, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting penfield
Yen, you got to be kidding.
Psst . . . Don't worry, Penfield . . . I had my fingers crossed.

Don't tell anyone.

Actually, I think we have it all worked out . . . Yonnie has custody of the serious stuff, but I have visiting rights when a lucid thought crosses my mind. I have custody of the humor, but everyone's invited to share it with me.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,486
  • Edited 7:55pm Oct 2, 2009 1:41pm | Edited 7:55pm
Quoting penfield
FYI, Yen offers some of the best analysis this thread has, albeit it may be off color at times. And Yen is like a 24 hour David Letterman show. He hosts the U.S. president for an interview following an hillarious monolog. For those who don't know who Letterman is you are missing out. Enough of the accolades and on with the show...
OK, on to my "The World Is Not Fair" soapbox . . . Letterman gets to entertain the beautiful, rich and famous of the world and gets the big bucks.

On the other hand, I get to deal with Shiko . . . which job is harder for crying out loud?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,487
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:47pm Oct 2, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting yonnie
Its amazing how volatile the G/J pair is. It can go up 400 pips and come all the way back to take you out at BE. From my backtesting so far it seems that about 30 pips is good to lock in.
I'm not sure I'm following your point here, Yonnie. Are you saying you're entering a trade 30 pips above or below the close of the candle, or what does it mean?

Quoting yonnie
Another area is when to take profit. It might be useful to lower the TP pips, so you can grab the profits in more weeks, but again backtesting will provide the most efficient TP level. These are 2 areas which can raise profits, so if some people are willing to backtest from 29 March till the present I`ll be grateful and we can compare results to weed out any mistakes.
I'm with you on the back testing, and will let you know what I find.

Quoting yonnie
Timeframe: I have a different tf to take my trades from and its visible on the hourly chart. Sometimes the entry price is the same as the 4H box, sometimes not. Generally the box is smaller than the 4H box. Thats my puzzle for you guys for this weekend
OK, I'll work on it, but I expect to be paid overtime.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,488
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:09pm Oct 2, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting yen44x
I'm not sure I'm following your point here, Yonnie. Are you saying you're entering a trade 30 pips above or below the close of the candle, or what does it mean?
I must have had an big off day, that even you Yen with all your intellect cant grasp it...........

if we have an entry and the price goes up a considerable amount of pips, I would like to protect a little bit of the profit.
so if the retrace goes back all the way to BE, I`ll have at least 30 pips in the bank.
on the other hand if the retrace doesn`t come back all the way to BE, I still want to be in the trade.

its a bit like somebody proposed BE+20 if up TP1.

I haven`t finished this part of the backtesting, but so far
if the retrace didn`t hit BE it went as far back as BE+30.

but more backtesting required and the market is always there to pay you double overtime
  • #4,489
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:12pm Oct 2, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting yonnie
I must have had an big off day, that even you Yen with all your intellect cant grasp it...........
You, my friend, have seriously overestimated my intellect.

Thanks for the response.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,490
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:29pm Oct 2, 2009 10:29pm
Quoting yonnie
I haven`t finished this part of the backtesting, but so far if the retrace didn`t hit BE it went as far back as BE+30.
I hesitate to admit it, but my "intellect" is struggling with this one too . . . if the retrace didn't hit BE, I'm assuming you mean it went back in the direction of the trade. If that's the case, why would it be of advantage to close the trade at BE +30?

Am I just really slow tonight, or was the tequila really fast?

Quoting yonnie
but more backtesting required and the market is always there to pay you double overtime
OK, it's a deal . . . I'll turn in the overtime to the market.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,491
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:40pm Oct 2, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting yonnie
It might be useful to lower the TP pips, so you can grab the profits in more weeks, but again backtesting will provide the most efficient TP level. Has anybody found other areas of interest?
OK, here's a "what-if" for you. Since you have mentioned a 70-pip SL, I'll use it in this example. What if you also set 70-pip targets, closed the trade when your target was hit, and simultaneously opened a new trade in the same direction?

One you get past the first trade, you're guaranteed no less than a breakeven week, but if it's a true breakout week, you could bank several more 70-pip targets.

This goes back to my days with GBP/JPY carry trades, but could it be of value with this system?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,492
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:46pm Oct 2, 2009 10:46pm
Just to expand on that idea a bit more, here's how I handled carry trades . . . let's say your first target is at 150.00 and that you're working with a 9-pip spread. The first trade would be set to close at 150.00, and your next trade would already be set to go at 150.09. So, when you close one trade . . . boom . . . you're automatically in your next trade. The next trade would close at 150.79, with a new order already set at 150.88, etc. All of these trades can be pre-set when the 4H candle closes, so there's no extra work or time on the computer (which is good for me, because it allows extra time for jokes)
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,493
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:53pm Oct 2, 2009 10:53pm
hey guys.. so whats the final decision?? do v take the second trade when the first one is a loss??
  • #4,494
  • Oct 2, 2009 10:55pm Oct 2, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting vito88id
hey guys.. so whats the final decision?? do v take the second trade when the first one is a loss??
I'm not sure it's a group decision. I've mentioned what I'm personally doing several times on the thread.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,495
  • Oct 2, 2009 11:07pm Oct 2, 2009 11:07pm
Quoting yen44x
I'm not sure it's a group decision. I've mentioned what I'm personally doing several times on the thread.
Yeah, this has been discussed, but either not verified, or dismissed.
  • #4,496
  • Oct 2, 2009 11:10pm Oct 2, 2009 11:10pm
Quoting Pharoah
Yeah, this has been discussed, but either not verified, or dismissed.
I previously posted my back test results with second trades, and the vast majority of them were losers . . . a much lower winning percentage than first trades, and much more than even a very good R:R could make up for.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,497
  • Oct 2, 2009 11:21pm Oct 2, 2009 11:21pm
Quoting yen44x
I hesitate to admit it, but my "intellect" is struggling with this one too . . . if the retrace didn't hit BE, I'm assuming you mean it went back in the direction of the trade. If that's the case, why would it be of advantage to close the trade at BE +30?
oh my gaaaaaawd, I dont believe this!!! you still dont get it??? dumbbum

yes your assumption is right.......alright, alright I should have said BE+29 and the biggest retracement without hitting BE would have stalled at BE+30 and gone back up.

enuf said
  • #4,498
  • Edited Oct 3, 2009 12:01am Oct 2, 2009 11:30pm | Edited Oct 3, 2009 12:01am
Quoting yen44x
OK, here's a "what-if" for you. Since you have mentioned a 70-pip SL, I'll use it in this example. What if you also set 70-pip targets, closed the trade when your target was hit, and simultaneously opened a new trade in the same direction?

One you get past the first trade, you're guaranteed no less than a breakeven week, but if it's a true breakout week, you could bank several more 70-pip targets.

This goes back to my days with GBP/JPY carry trades, but could it be of value with this system?
A quick response is this and maybe I`m missing something:
is there any advantage in closing and opening new trades and paying the spread every time instead of having 1 entry and locking in more profits as price goes more in your favour?

or is it that you dont want to sit at your computer all the time and are prepared to sacrafice the spread?
  • #4,499
  • Oct 2, 2009 11:33pm Oct 2, 2009 11:33pm
Quoting yonnie
oh my gaaaaaawd, I dont believe this!!! you still dont get it??? dumbbum

yes your assumption is right.......alright, alright I should have said BE+29 and the biggest retracement without hitting BE would have stalled at BE+30 and gone back up.

enuf said
Is this after at least TP1 is reached?
  • #4,500
  • Oct 2, 2009 11:43pm Oct 2, 2009 11:43pm
Quoting yonnie
A quick response is this and maybe I`m missing something:
is there any advantage in closing and opening new trades and paying the spread every time instead of having 1 entry and locking in more profits as price goes more in your favour?
The only advantages I see with this is the "locking in profits" thing... but to be honest, it's only good if your next trades SL is closer than the original orders entry. I personally feel this is of no great benefit, a trade should not be closed out when it is moving in profit.
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