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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,441
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:54pm Oct 1, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting 11andy11
I am not sure myself, but you can click the box with the paperclip at the top of the page on the right and it will list all the attachments by date.
thanks bro help a lot appreciate that
  • #4,442
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:46am Oct 2, 2009 12:46am
Quoting yonnie
The humour is really not the issue.....I like it as much as anybody else. So dont stop joking, but you might incorporate it in your trading posts....
As always, Yonnie, simply stated and eloquently worded. And, to top it off, some good advice which I'll try to follow.

You're right . . . for awhile, it seemed like a two-way conversation with everyone else on the sidelines waiting for Ace. Frankly, as much as I enjoy hearing your thoughts, we might as well have called each other . . . it's faster than typing. However, now that some others have put their thinking caps on, hopefully the result will be an exchange of information and ideas that benefit all of us.

You mention the hours of back testing . . . was the idea of using the close of the candle a result of that, or are you currently back testing the idea to see if it has merit? I was extremely impressed by the simplicity and logic of that idea, so I was curious how much back testing went into it.

OK, then, it's settled . . . I get to keep my humor (in moderation of course), and Yonnie gets to keep his sanity.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,443
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:57am Oct 2, 2009 12:57am
Quoting yen44x
OK, then, it's settled . . . I get to keep my humor (in moderation of course), and Yonnie gets to keep his sanity.
I think I hear woody woodpecker coming.
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #4,444
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:05am Oct 2, 2009 1:05am
Quoting PiPsAddict
I think I hear woody woodpecker coming.

He-he-he-HA-HA . . . See what happens every time I try to be serious?

Pips Addict, I already liked you, but a fellow Woody Woodpecker fan as well? . . . we're like brothers separated at birth.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,445
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:26am Oct 2, 2009 1:26am
Quoting yen44x

He-he-he-HA-HA . . . See what happens every time I try to be serious?

Pips Addict, I already liked you, but a fellow Woody Woodpecker fan as well? . . . we're like brothers separated at birth.
Saturday morning... big bowl of cheerios.... and Looney Tunes on the T.V.

Aaaahhhhh.... those were the days.

Wait a minute..... that was last Saturday.

And I digress.....
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #4,446
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:41am Oct 2, 2009 1:41am
Yonnie . . . if you have already back tested your idea of a weekly 100-pip box based on the close of the first 4H candle, were you still using the 70-pip SL that you advocated earlier?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,447
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:07am Oct 2, 2009 2:07am
o.k. folks, I`m just thinking out loud here.

I was a bit late to the party, but all those people that got on board early made some nice pips because of the volatility in the world markets and subsequently the forex pair GBP/JPY.

What about the future?
I think that the easy pickings are over. The volatility probably will increase in the short term because the markets will retrace 10-20%. From there we might have ranging markets for 2-3 years while the business world is sorting itself out.
And then the booming years to follow.

Will I be wrong?
Wouldn`t surprise me.

The moral of this story is that we shouldn`t expect the good times to come back.
We are now in a ranging market for awhile and by now we all should have a trading system that has been adapted to the current circumstances until the market dictates otherwise.
We trade what we see, not what we expect.

This implies that a good trader never rests and is always comparing the present with the immediate past and adapting as necessary.

Sorry guys, work work work
  • #4,448
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:10am Oct 2, 2009 2:10am
Quoting yonnie
o.k. folks, I`m just thinking out loud here.

I was a bit late to the party, but all those people that got on board early made some nice pips because of the volatility in the world markets and subsequently the forex pair GBP/JPY.

What about the future?
I think that the easy pickings are over. The volatility probably will increase in the short term because the markets will retrace 10-20%. From there we might have ranging markets for 2-3 years while the business world is sorting itself out.
And then the booming years to follow.

Will I be wrong?
Wouldn`t...
Again Yonnie, couldn't have said it better myself.
  • #4,449
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:18am Oct 2, 2009 2:18am
Quoting yonnie
o.k. folks, I`m just thinking out loud here.

I was a bit late to the party, but all those people that got on board early made some nice pips because of the volatility in the world markets and subsequently the forex pair GBP/JPY.

What about the future?
I think that the easy pickings are over. The volatility probably will increase in the short term because the markets will retrace 10-20%. From there we might have ranging markets for 2-3 years while the business world is sorting itself out.
And then the booming years to follow.

Will I be wrong?
Wouldn`t...
that was a good one Yonnie. but market changes over time is not a reason why not to make pips. successful trade must be able to make money in all market conditions and have various tools for this, one of which is Ace's strategy but it is just one tool. do not rely on Ace to amke your money.
  • #4,450
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:26am Oct 2, 2009 2:26am
oned thing i do not like is: ace's strategy is simple and people tend to complicate things. the more moving parts the easier this system will break.
we need to keep things simple.
  • #4,451
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:39am Oct 2, 2009 2:39am
Quoting shiko
oned thing i do not like is: ace's strategy is simple and people tend to complicate things. the more moving parts the easier this system will break.
we need to keep things simple.
Ace's system is simple yes.. however, it would have been eaten up in 2005 and spit back out, this suggests that the system in itself... is TO simple... and because of it's simplicity is subject to massive error. If market conditions change so that the first few days of the week range every week, this system is garbage, will become completely worthless. Right now the markets favor this system. Alterations need to be made.


I'd like to play a little game.

Name 1 simple thing that has not needed to be improved or modified. That it's very basic core design in itself was the best possible.

If anyone can come up with 1 thing that started as the best, I for one will stop attempting to modify (at least sharing it) and leave everyone to their own discoveries.
  • #4,452
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:49am Oct 2, 2009 2:49am
Quoting Pharoah
Ace's system is simple yes.. however, it would have been eaten up in 2005 and spit back out, this suggests that the system in itself... is TO simple... and because of it's simplicity is subject to massive error. If market conditions change so that the first few days of the week range every week, this system is garbage, will become completely worthless. Right now the markets favor this system. Alterations need to be made.


I'd like to play a little game.

Name 1 simple thing that has not needed to be improved or modified. That it's very basic core...

i know, but still it is nice to keep it simple. it just should be like version a, b, c. for various market conditions.
2005 taking partly prtofits at TP1 should have made it profitable year if i remember corrrectly
  • #4,453
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:02am Oct 2, 2009 3:02am
Quoting shiko
i know, but still it is nice to keep it simple. it just should be like version a, b, c. for various market conditions.
2005 taking partly prtofits at TP1 should have made it profitable year if i remember corrrectly
Yes, it was with TP1 it was, but barely.

However, even in ranging periods like 2005, how are we to know what weeks were going to be ranged, and what weeks were not. My particular modifications allow us to benefit from both ranging and trending conditions.

The way I see it, is why have option A, B, and C, when option D can do all 3 and takes the guess work out of determining trend/range conditions.

Believe me, anyone that says something can't be done... (by this I mean 1 system for it all)

Attached Image
  • #4,454
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:16am Oct 2, 2009 3:16am
Quoting yonnie
Yen, I think at the time you and I were about the only ones contributing anything worthwhile apart from some posters who joined later.

I believe in work AND play!
Yonnie, I'm sorry I couldn't help with the discussions you had with Yen regarding adjustments to the SL and so on. I use something slightly different from Ace's original system and I didn't want to be leading the thread astray, but I was with you in spirit and greatly interested. So I can't claim anything in terms of the system development, but I'm glad that my post and Yen's have encouraged you, as I think everyone on this thread values your contributions. I for one will always take on board any of your thoughts on trading. And if you want to drop in the odd gag, feel free. Yen gets away with it because he has our respect as a trader, and he's funny. You also have my respect.

Regards
Bal
The dream will never die
  • #4,455
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:58am Oct 2, 2009 5:58am
feel very humbled with the support in this thread; am not used to it.

about Ace....
so he found a system that is 3x as profitable as the old one.
what could he have changed?

now we know that he is a guy who wont change anything in a hurry and I reckon he is not that great on backtesting.

after all it was only after other people suggested to lift the SL to BE when price is at TP1 that he took notice and took his time changing that.

posters also suggested to lower the stop loss and I believe that here he ran with it and was able to get all or the majority of the improvement in profit.

he mentions highest RR is 34: that must have been in the week of 18 January with maximum of around 1650 pips and that suggests a stop loss of around 45-50 pips.

So what happens if your stop loss suddenly drops from 120-150 to 45-50 pips?
Yeah, you guess it, you can increase your position size by 3, risk the same amount of money and make 3x the profit.

Maybe I haven`t covered everything what Ace is doing, but I dont believe that he tweaked more than 1 or 2 variables all of a sudden.

Let me know what you guys think
  • #4,456
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:58am Oct 2, 2009 5:58am
Quoting Pharoah
Yes, it was with TP1 it was, but barely.

However, even in ranging periods like 2005, how are we to know what weeks were going to be ranged, and what weeks were not. My particular modifications allow us to benefit from both ranging and trending conditions.

The way I see it, is why have option A, B, and C, when option D can do all 3 and takes the guess work out of determining trend/range conditions.

Believe me, anyone that says something can't be done... (by this I mean 1 system for it all)

Attachment
that's true. hence everybody needs few tools plus goo money management. when ace's system ain't working risk might be reduced to avoid big DDs and another can be used. diversification.
  • #4,457
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:06am Oct 2, 2009 6:06am
i am already sitting on my bags. the flight is the day after tomorrow.
poor, Yen, he got bullied by Yonnie and other too serious dudes
  • #4,458
  • Oct 2, 2009 8:47am Oct 2, 2009 8:47am
Quoting Pharoah
I'd like to play a little game.

Name 1 simple thing that has not needed to be improved or modified. That it's very basic core design in itself was the best possible.

If anyone can come up with 1 thing that started as the best, I for one will stop attempting to modify (at least sharing it) and leave everyone to their own discoveries.
1. Air

Please, Pharoah, don't try to modify it (air, that is), but it's o.k. to share it.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,459
  • Oct 2, 2009 8:49am Oct 2, 2009 8:49am
Quoting yonnie
feel very humbled with the support in this thread; am not used to it.

about Ace....
so he found a system that is 3x as profitable as the old one.
what could he have changed?

now we know that he is a guy who wont change anything in a hurry and I reckon he is not that great on backtesting.

after all it was only after other people suggested to lift the SL to BE when price is at TP1 that he took notice and took his time changing that.

posters also suggested to lower the stop loss and I believe that here he ran with it and was able to get all...
He also said that the new system takes less trades.
  • #4,460
  • Oct 2, 2009 8:59am Oct 2, 2009 8:59am
Quoting shiko
i am already sitting on my bags. the flight is the day after tomorrow. poor, Yen, he got bullied by Yonnie and other too serious dudes
Chill, Shiko, Chill . . . I can fight my own battles if a battle needs to be fought.

My only point was that I respect Yonnie's posts a lot . . . he helped me to start "Thinking Outside the 4H Box" (which, BTW, is what Pharoah really should have named his revised version/thread), and if my posts were detracting from the thread and interfering with his thinking process and that of others, then I was willing to change. End of story.

I don't think Yonnie or anyone else who complained about the humor is "too serious" . . . we all approach work and trading differently. I've always been able to mix some humor with my trading and it keeps me relaxed, and, I think, trading better. But trading is not a one-size-fits-all concept, and what works for me may not work for all, so I understood Yonnie's point.

However, after talking it over with Yonnie, I think we've arranged a compromise, so I'll try to blend the two a little better.

Homogenized humor . . . that's my goal.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
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