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Ichimoku forever

  • #4,481
  • Edited 7:21am Oct 2, 2009 6:29am | Edited 7:21am
Quoting SanMiguel
The trendline break is your exit signal in conjunction with HA candles.
On your 5min entries, what are your requirements for the higher TFs?
ie do you only look for price to be below the kumo, or do you require a strong Ts/Ks cross on the 1hr first?
this was a 1M trade, but the same applies for all the TF. here's one on 4H.
but for entries I use whatever strategy that presents itself, starting with a strong TS/KS, then kumo breakout then KS cross and finally kumo twist, the Chikou span cross usually is a combination, my requirements are the standard as per vic's metod and the ichimokuwiki document.
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  • #4,482
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:45am Oct 2, 2009 6:45am
Quoting lbtrader
this was a 1M trade, but the same applies for all the TF. here's one on 4H.
but for entries I use whatever strategy that presents itself, starting with a strong TS/KS, then kumo breakout then KS cross and finally kumo twist, the Chikou span cross usually is a combination.
If you have a choice of 2 trendlines, as you will during some accelerated moves, I assume you choose the break of the steepest trendline as the point to take profit as that will have been the largest pip move? Maybe this is more of an issue on the higher TFs.
  • #4,483
  • Edited 7:07am Oct 2, 2009 6:53am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting SanMiguel
If you have a choice of 2 trendlines as you will during some accelerated moves, I assume you choose the break of the steepest trendline as the point to take profit as that will have been the largest pip move?
the trend lines as you have noticed are dynamic and change as the price moves, so you are correct, I may have drawn a TL for TP based on a previous peak or trough, but later changed it as the move continued, there are also subtle signs of change in direction using the TS/KS relationship and distance, I still cannot quantify it but if you watch a lot of charts you will be able to spot them.
sometimes I don't find a suitable peak or trough in the recent price action so I use a distant one from several hours ago, you have to practice quite a bit to draw the proper TL.
it is needless to say that with each TF comes a different expectation of profit, the higher TF the more you expect, but again one can pull quite a bit even on 1M as shown in the pdf file.
  • #4,484
  • Oct 2, 2009 7:18am Oct 2, 2009 7:18am
Quoting SanMiguel
Because in the LT trades you are going for more pips albeit at a reduced lot size?
SM,

You are correct and we are not implying that you make more with a fixed TP than you do in an LT trade merely that the pip to pip gain differential between the pair is not a simple Pip Gain(LT)-Pip Gain(FixedSL) calculation.

Attached is a very basic calculator that can establish quickly the benefit of entering a long TF trade using S/R for SL placement or a targeted long TF trade with a fixed SL value (I use 40 as the example) and a fixed TP (I use 50 pips as the example)

The risk reward value should always be 1 or over.

From this calc you can set your trade parameters before you enter and visibly notice the risk reward ratio impact of taking your profits and running early.

Cheers

Also Sinner/Lbtrader - if you guys are around can you check the logic on this excel sheet. It will do for the basic calculation however I am missing something. Had a party last night and hazy today
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Basic RM Calc.xls   9 KB | 539 downloads
  • #4,485
  • Oct 2, 2009 7:22am Oct 2, 2009 7:22am
Quoting sinner-
Do not scalp if you do not expect 1:>2.55 Risk:Reward ratio. Plain and simple. Do not be scared to exit at 1:1 and wait for a stronger setup, it will give you a few free pips for your next SL. Try to exit half at 1:1 (if you want to continue) to put you in free trade state or move stops to BE. Either method will reduce your risk to...
  • #4,486
  • Oct 2, 2009 7:39am Oct 2, 2009 7:39am
Quoting ab1
Im begining to wonder if scalping is the answer. I seem to have been around the block several times in my enormously long 4 month forex career to date.....lol ........................!
Hi Ab1,

Yes, long term trading is more profitable than scalping based on my experience. Ask any successful forex traders and they will tell you they follow the trend and use higher time frames. Believe me you are not missing any pips. Some traders prefer scalping maybe because they have the time and they can afford the risk.

Gooduck.
  • #4,487
  • Oct 2, 2009 7:59am Oct 2, 2009 7:59am
Quoting egkid
Yeah was wishing he be here to tell his point of view.
For me took short 1.5925
Oh, I'm having so much fun!
Well Barbie, we're just getting started
Oh, I love you Ken!
  • #4,488
  • Oct 2, 2009 8:30am Oct 2, 2009 8:30am
Quoting sinner-
Hi 4xAddict how you doin mang. I sent vic an email get him to forward it to you, worth reading the whole conversation.

It is worth noting from my perspective at least that expectancy is just as important as RM and MM, especially with mechanical systems and just so happens to be my major issue with scalping. I think scalping could easily be the most profitable trading method on the market, but to realise the true expectancy you have to trade every signal! Who can do that, trade 24x5? Nobody, and let's face it 95% of scalping EAs suck balls....
Hi Mate,

I am really good.

Totally agree with you on the expectancy issue.

Scalping is always going to be the most profitable method to trade if you trade every signal in a move I mean you could at times take '000s pips out of what was a 200 pip longer term move but who can manage those hours!! even load sharing with someone else and having a synchronised handover doesn't account for variations in human judgement, servers being down and the myriad of other factors required to be totally aligned so you can watch ever candle....

My thoughts exactly on the EAs!

How is the chaos theory coming along. Have been reading quite a bit and it is pretty interesting stuff.

Cheers!
  • #4,489
  • Edited 9:20am Oct 2, 2009 8:41am | Edited 9:20am
for every action there is an equal reaction in the opposite direction
physics 101.

p.s. did I say equal? well that is in physics 101, but in forex the reaction could be double, tripple or who knows.....
sh...t the price is still going
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  • #4,490
  • Oct 2, 2009 8:47am Oct 2, 2009 8:47am
I closed any open trades on GBPJPY and USDJPY today due to the NFP report.
The only one I held open was GBPCHF taken as a cloud exit (candle close) on the 1hr and this was because the last 2 month's of NFP reports did not seem to affect the GBPCHF. Currently +55 and I may try an lbtrader exit from the chinkou trendline whenever that happens. Given the state of the GU, I think this might be a good short to hold onto - the 4hr chart has a nice double bounce from chinkou resistance and the kumo at the same time.
It currently has 2 trendlines though:

http://www.sidekicker.net/Ichi/GBPCHF_20091002_1.jpg
  • #4,491
  • Oct 2, 2009 8:51am Oct 2, 2009 8:51am
Quoting SanMiguel
I closed any open trades on GBPJPY and USDJPY today due to the NFP report.
The only one I held open was GBPCHF taken as a cloud exit (candle close) on the 1hr and this was because the last 2 month's of NFP reports did not seem to affect the GBPCHF. Currently +55 and I may try an lbtrader exit from the chinkou trendline whenever that happens. Given the state of the GU, I think this might be a good short to hold onto - the 4hr chart has a nice double bounce from chinkou resistance and the kumo at the same time.
It currently has 2 trendlines though:...
only one CSTLB, SM, the most recent. once you get a new peak you let go the old one, otherwise it will cost you.
  • #4,492
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:11am Oct 2, 2009 9:11am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi ab1,


Some Fridays are ok to trade in however NFP friday is notoriously risky and it is poor RM to trade into such an event unless you are holding a position on a daily chart in which case a 190pip drawdown would not worry you let alone 19

Cheers.
4XAddict

That is such a great gesture to spend the time it took you to type all that stuff...which by the way was very informative and educational.

Have you got any jobs going at your place please.....I will sit in the corner very quitely if you just allow me to pick your brians for the next 6 months....lol

Thanks again appreciate it

ab1
  • #4,493
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:18am Oct 2, 2009 9:18am
Quoting ab1
4XAddict

That is such a great gesture to spend the time it took you to type all that stuff...which by the way was very informative and educational.

Have you got any jobs going at your place please.....I will sit in the corner very quitely if you just allow me to pick your brians for the next 6 months....lol

Thanks again appreciate it

ab1
Hi Mate,

No problems, post the news coming out did you see the genuine chaos that ensued?

The E/U isn't sure if it is Arthur or Martha at the moment. Goes to show the impact that institutional money can have when it comes flooding back in.

I was holding a U/CHF short from yesterday morning which I closed out up 50pips at 1.0396 earlier this morning. I set myself a fixed TP on this trade because I knew NFP was coming today.

Now I look at the chart and see what would have been over a 100pip move had I stayed in but what can you do? This way at least I am up however had the market gone the other way I'd be at 0. Either way this f%&king NFP report would have cost me at least 50 pips

Cheers.
  • #4,494
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:44am Oct 2, 2009 9:44am
Quoting lbtrader
this was a 1M trade, but the same applies for all the TF. here's one on 4H.
but for entries I use whatever strategy that presents itself, starting with a strong TS/KS, then kumo breakout then KS cross and finally kumo twist, the Chikou span cross usually is a combination, my requirements are the standard as per vic's metod and the ichimokuwiki document.
Hi lb
On these continuation plays, do you look for a Ts/Ks cross at the same time or are you simply trading the trendline break as it happens?
The counter trend trade is fine if you know the pair, but I would find that risky at first.
Sorry, what I meant by my question above was are you simply trading the 5min timeframe by itself or do you make sure the Daily, 4hr, and 1hr all have the same sentiment?
  • #4,495
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:57am Oct 2, 2009 9:57am
Quoting SanMiguel
Hi lb
On these continuation plays, do you look for a Ts/Ks cross at the same time or are you simply trading the trendline break as it happens?
The counter trend trade is fine if you know the pair, but I would find that risky at first.
Sorry, what I meant by my question above was are you simply trading the 5min timeframe by itself or do you make sure the Daily, 4hr, and 1hr all have the same sentiment?
SM,
the continuation play by definition is when the signal has not been invalidated (say by an opposite TS/KS cross, or an opposite kumo twist, etc...)
the standard conditions described in the strategy have to be fulfilled initially, havig said that, playing simply the TLB, as what is shown in the two NFP trades (and a third one is starting as I type), is possible, but very risky and requires strict MM rules.
  • #4,496
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:59pm Oct 2, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Mate,

I am really good.

Totally agree with you on the expectancy issue.

Scalping is always going to be the most profitable method to trade if you trade every signal in a move I mean you could at times take '000s pips out of what was a 200 pip longer term move but who can manage those hours!! even load sharing with someone else and having a synchronised handover doesn't account for variations in human judgement, servers being down and the myriad of other factors required to be totally aligned so you can watch ever candle....

My...
Dr. Bill Williams Chaos theory is very cool stuff. In some of His seminars He alligns it well with Dr. Elliott's Elliott Wave Theory, which is very cool also.
Both apparently looking for the order in the Chaos. Both also direct attention to the use of market Divergence.
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,497
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:08pm Oct 2, 2009 1:08pm
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  • #4,498
  • Edited Oct 3, 2009 10:30am Oct 2, 2009 1:11pm | Edited Oct 3, 2009 10:30am
Quoting SanMiguel
Sorry the circle should be a few periods later where the actual Ts/Ks cross occurs. The CS was below the price curve at the time (it is 26 periods back), what you can see on the chart is today's CS span.
Hello my friend...listen allow me to explain why the trade failed..I think you were concentrating so much on the Ichi that you forgot to check you Support.

I dont care what Ichi tells you on the 15 (TK cross) or any chart (TK cross) when there is strong S/R (check CS-span)you had better wait till it clears or it can fast become a losing trade. I have attached charts with this post and with one look you can see why the trade failed for you especially when you dont want a great drawdown.

Here is a quote from the IchimokuWiki.pdf
"Entry The entry for the tenkan sen/kijun sen cross is very straightforward - an order is placed in the direction of the
cross once the cross has been solidified by a close. Nevertheless, in accordance with good Ichimoku trading
practices, the trader should bear in mind any significant levels of support/resistance near the cross and
consider getting a close above those levels before executing their order."

I know that I really have to take my time and just not watch the Ichi signals without checking the SR levels...It is easy to jump into a trade and miss them by just watching Ichi signals (TK crossing)

I want to thank Vic and fx and the gang for a wonderful forum..A positive forum...I am a full-time trader and have been trading for some years but mostly on the 5m and am transitioning to ICHI and keeping longer trades...A little getting used to, but I am loving it. It was always hard to wait on a trade but I am doing it with ICHI...by the way I have never waited until thursday before I made a trade but I did this week...up hundreds of pips---its hard for me to show because I live trade with MB trading but need my charting with another broker, so i demo with FXDD and InterBank Fx...

As a long time trader using 5m charting be ye very careful...

The Eegle
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  • #4,499
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:11pm Oct 2, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting vic_elc
What I want to know is what those 2 figures on the bottom right of the cake are doing exactly?
  • #4,500
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:13pm Oct 2, 2009 1:13pm
Quoting SanMiguel
What I want to know is what those 2 figures on the bottom right of the cake are doing exactly?
Haha i have the same question
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