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Ichimoku forever

  • #4,461
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:50am Oct 2, 2009 4:50am
Quoting ab1
Im begining to wonder if scalping is the answer. I seem to have been around the block several times in my enormously long 4 month forex career to date.....lol

Altough my experience is limited to date what I have learnt is that the long term trend is the key to more success, but action is slow and you miss out on a lot of pips through general price action movement in the process, whilst waiting for your long term trade to mature.

So what are most of you full time guys doing ?

I know people ive spoken to that sit in front of there monitors...
I trade mostly mechanical: DIBS, Daily Divergent Candles, BW Chaos D1 (soon hopefully), M5 MoMo (slightly modified with ATR and AO), hedged Thursday morning carry, First Strike, One Night Stand, E/G Tokyo 1:1 breakout, 2nd Hour London Direction, and today I maybe add Larsegs "set and forget" to my list. If I have a chance during Tokyo I will scalp yen crosses using HA candles, Ichi (or any EMA cross) and daily S/R levels.

On various pairs, indices and commods (depending on the system a lot of the mechanical ones are for commods/energy).

Spend my "watching" time looking at daily pivots, S/R, fibs and reading trader/respected economist opinions.
  • #4,462
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:57am Oct 2, 2009 4:57am
Quoting sinner-
I trade mostly mechanical: DIBS, Daily Divergent Candles, BW Chaos D1 (soon hopefully), M5 MoMo (slightly modified with ATR and AO), hedged Thursday morning carry, First Strike, One Night Stand, E/G Tokyo 1:1 breakout, 2nd Hour London Direction, and today I maybe add Larsegs "set and forget" to my list. If I have a chance during Tokyo I will scalp yen crosses using HA candles, Ichi (or any EMA cross) and daily S/R levels.

On various pairs, indices and commods (depending on the system a lot of the mechanical ones are for commods/energy).

Spend...
Wow ! Thats helpful thanks....although I didnt understand half of it...lol !

But Ill print that list off and take a look on the net at some of the systems you use that may compliment Ichi
  • #4,463
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:00am Oct 2, 2009 5:00am
Quoting ab1
Im begining to wonder if scalping is the answer. I seem to have been around the block several times in my enormously long 4 month forex career to date.....lol

Altough my experience is limited to date what I have learnt is that the long term trend is the key to more success, but action is slow and you miss out on a lot of pips through general price action movement in the process, whilst waiting for your long term trade to mature.

So what are most of you full time guys doing ?

I know people ive spoken to that sit in front of there monitors...
You will probably get a million different answers here
I'm not full time but I do trade GBPUSD every day aiming for an average of 20 pips a day (combination of S/R trading and moving averages on the 15min timeframe & longer term trades on the 1hr or 4hr charts). I can't say I agree with scalping for 3-5 pips but there are those methods that exist. I'm purely looking at Ichi as another way for trading longer term stuff.
  • #4,464
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:02am Oct 2, 2009 5:02am
None of those systems except HA candles compliment Ichi.

In fact often they trade against each other.

Sounds like a lot but like I said they are all mechanical, at certain times of the day I check certain charts for a few minutes and set stop/limit orders accordingly and walk away (until one of the orders is hit).
  • #4,465
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:05am Oct 2, 2009 5:05am
Quoting ab1
Im sure your trying to be helpful but......................VSA ....is ?


cheers



ab1
Hi ab1,

When the traded volume in the market is reduced, there is often not enough momentum created as a result to continue with existing trends and movements in the market regularly fakeout.

For example when there is normal volume in the market there are large institutional players on either side of the price action looking to buy and sell huge quantities of currency. When volume is reduced it means that there are simply not many of these big guys in the market at that time. Therefore when a larger order is placed to either buy or sell there is often a fast reaction in either direction because there is simply not the volume of buyers to accept a large sell trade (so it tracks lower much faster) or sellers to provide currency to a large buy trade as there is not enough for sale at that price point to buy.

Because ichimoku is based on average calculations, the larger the volume in the market the larger the changes in the average calculations and the stronger the signals. When the volume is low movements do not impact the averages nearly as much and therefore the signals are much weaker.

The suggestion from some of the guys to read about volume spread analysis is a valid and helpful one which you should check out. Just google the term and also search for it on you tube and there are educational videos on there about it.

This is a good tool to use to assist in assessing the strength of moves with ichi. That said the kumo also does this as its thickness shows the strength of sentiment in either direction in the market (thicker = strong / thinner = weak) and given how thin the kumos are on most pairs at the moment ichi too is tell everyone that now is not a good time to be trading.

We all acknowledge Friday (especially NFP day Friday) as a poor time to trade because there is such an increase in risk due to the uncertainly and inherrent lack of traded volume in the market leading up to these releases.

If you are not up to speed on why this happen then I suggest you take more notice of the impact that the 'RED' news releases have on the FF calendar at least as a start.

If the large institutions are out of the market because they consider it too risky to trade before a specific event, then why would any of us be in the market armed simply with MT4, a broadband connection and our wits about us, when they are too scared to be in and have 100's of analysts and inside market knowledge in their arsenal of weapons?

NFP can impact the sentiment of the market for sometimes days so the logic is stay out for the few hours before to get the next few days worth of trend to play with. Please understand when I write this, I am asking these questions not only of you but of everyone here, this is to provide a justification for our Friday policy and also warn others as some of our senior traders have already been doing this morning.

Some Fridays are ok to trade in however NFP friday is notoriously risky and it is poor RM to trade into such an event unless you are holding a position on a daily chart in which case a 190pip drawdown would not worry you let alone 19

Cheers.
  • #4,466
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:16am Oct 2, 2009 5:16am
4xaddict:
Perfect timing...........
  • #4,467
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:17am Oct 2, 2009 5:17am
Want to see GBPJPY's NFP price action from last month (GU and UJ cross)?
This is over 170pips all in the space of 1hr.
Not a good time to be trading even if the trend did continue afterwards:

http://www.sidekicker.net/Ichi/GBPJPY_NFP.jpg
  • #4,468
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:19am Oct 2, 2009 5:19am
Quoting ab1
Im begining to wonder if scalping is the answer. I seem to have been around the block several times in my enormously long 4 month forex career to date.....lol

Altough my experience is limited to date what I have learnt is that the long term trend is the key to more success, but action is slow and you miss out on a lot of pips through general price action movement in the process, whilst waiting for your long term trade to mature.

So what are most of you full time guys doing ?

I know people ive spoken to that sit in front of there monitors...
Hi Ab1,

We are trying to use a system here to take high probability trades and maximise our pips.

Scalping is a time intensive stressful way to slowly lose your eyesight. even if you take 3-5 pips/15 times per day that is only 75pips maximum for tedious hours of eye crossing work, a$$ numbing concentration.

Also, there is the added pressure of making that many trades and getting them right which if f&%^ing tough. The primary reason is that because with spreads around an average of 3-4 pips across all pairs (that is a generalization but is a valid presumption for the point I am making) and then the need for an acceptable SL buffer on scalping trades (10 pips is a conservative average many scalpers use) you need to add your spread to your SL buffer to work out your risk reward ratio.

In this example your risk is therefore 13-14 pips (SL buffer + spread) and you are looking to make 3-5? this is an R:R ratio of 1:3 which means you have to make 3 winning trades for every one that hits your SL. I may sound biased to longer TFs but it is a RM and MM issue that I cannot see past. This is why most scalpers end up being scalped themselves and seem to spend only a week or two on any thread as they have often emptied their accounts quite quickly and they can no longer pay their internet connection

We have averaged around 350pips per week for the past few weeks trading only strong ichi signals and maybe only 3-4 trades to do this.

During this time we have also been able to do other things like hold jobs, play golf, have family time, watch football etc - none of which are often possible if you scalp all day

Cheers.
  • #4,469
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:25am Oct 2, 2009 5:25am
Do not scalp if you do not expect 1:>2.55 Risk:Reward ratio. Plain and simple. Do not be scared to exit at 1:1 and wait for a stronger setup, it will give you a few free pips for your next SL. Try to exit half at 1:1 (if you want to continue) to put you in free trade state or move stops to BE. Either method will reduce your risk to 0 but with different effect on your realised profit and susceptibility to retrace. Scalping is fine but use the following rule: for every 10 pips I target, I can only take one trade. So if your daily scalp target is +50, then you are allowed 5 trades max per day. Any more than that without meeting your target you are not scalping you are losing.
  • #4,470
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:36am Oct 2, 2009 5:36am
Hi 4xAddict how you doin mang. I sent vic an email get him to forward it to you, worth reading the whole conversation.

It is worth noting from my perspective at least that expectancy is just as important as RM and MM, especially with mechanical systems and just so happens to be my major issue with scalping. I think scalping could easily be the most profitable trading method on the market, but to realise the true expectancy you have to trade every signal! Who can do that, trade 24x5? Nobody, and let's face it 95% of scalping EAs suck balls.

Re: expectancy I am short EJ and GU today (yes, one mechanical system hold me short EJ from 130 lol! but GU short looking sweet +22ish looking for TP+50).

What I am trying to say is, on any TF less than the D1 you essentially have to be awake for each candle change every day from Syd Open Monday till NY Close Friday to realise the true expectancy of any linear dynamic system which 99% of scalping systems are).

Pls correct me if you think it's wrong.
  • #4,471
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:47am Oct 2, 2009 5:47am
Case in point, I took mechanical G/U short today at 7PM Melb time TP +50 just hit. Had I not traded due to NFP then the next loss would ruin my running expectancy. Not saying you should use Ichi during NFP day, because you should not, dynamic systems are not safe to use during these times. Just trying to show the point of expectancy importance! We cannot do MM with a negative equity curve!
  • #4,472
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:52am Oct 2, 2009 5:52am
Quoting sinner-
Case in point, I took mechanical G/U short today at 7PM Melb time TP +50 just hit. Had I not traded due to NFP then the next loss would ruin my running expectancy. Not saying you should use Ichi during NFP day, because you should not, dynamic systems are not safe to use during these times. Just trying to show the point of expectancy importance! We cannot do MM with a negative equity curve!
You've probably just annoyed ab1 who closed for -20
I am trying out cloud trading at present (demo) in addition to the normal signals for this method on 1hr+
  • #4,473
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:54am Oct 2, 2009 5:54am
Quoting SanMiguel
I am trying out cloud trading at present (demo) in addition to the normal signals for this method on 1hr+
It's Friday bro, why not just go to the casino roulette and put 20 pips on red?
  • #4,474
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:59am Oct 2, 2009 5:59am
***** Not the Warriors' method *****
***** related to vic's discussion yesterday of chinkou trading *****

Any general thoughts on EG at the moment?
I have attached here a Ts and price exit of the kumo. However, I have circled the last 2 major S/R points of the chinkou that I would like to see price close above before considering an entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CloudTrading.jpg Size: 535 KB
  • #4,475
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:01am Oct 2, 2009 6:01am
Quoting sinner-
It's Friday bro, why not just go to the casino roulette and put 20 pips on red?
you did see the demo word in that last post didn't you?
I am not against Friday trading though I am against
- NFP Friday trading
- any pairs where interest reports are due out on Friday
- quadruple witching Fridays
- last Friday of the month.
Other than that, Friday's are pretty normal but you have to watch out for specific news reports.

I'm just trying out something here for examples and discussion on kumo trading.
  • #4,476
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:05am Oct 2, 2009 6:05am
Yes yes kid away bro I am just messing.

I advise E/G only buy the dips on high TF. She hasn't retraced an inch yet.
  • #4,477
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:07am Oct 2, 2009 6:07am
Quoting sinner-
Yes yes kid away bro I am just messing.

I advise E/G only buy the dips on high TF. She hasn't retraced an inch yet.
4hr has some nice bounces of the kumo. Daily is a long way from the Ks though.
  • #4,478
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:10am Oct 2, 2009 6:10am
Quoting SanMiguel
4hr has some nice bounces of the kumo. Daily is a long way from the Ks though.
It's all chop since 93. Remember ADR of E/G is about 1/3 of most normal pairs it ranges a lot before making a move.
  • #4,479
  • Edited 9:11am Oct 2, 2009 6:16am | Edited 9:11am
hi guys, just would like to share with you how I'm using the chikou span.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EJM1CSTLB.pdf   206 KB | 703 downloads
  • #4,480
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:27am Oct 2, 2009 6:27am
Quoting lbtrader
hi guys, just would like to share with you how I'm using the chikou span.
The trendline break is your exit signal in conjunction with HA candles?
On your 5min entries, what are your requirements for the higher TFs?
ie do you only look for price to be below the kumo, or do you require a strong Ts/Ks cross on the 1hr first?
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