Ichimoku forever | Page 223 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4% A Day Forever 1,433 replies

an EA that worked forever 29 replies

Forever Demo Account 9 replies

Attachments: Ichimoku forever
Exit Attachments

Ichimoku forever

  • #4,441
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:28am Oct 2, 2009 12:28am
Well I agree with you about equilibrium. So why do you think equilibrium lines are S/R? They are not. They are not zones where buyers and sellers converge, they are equilibrium lines. They indicate the price has returned to equilibrium, taking a short from the line might as well be a 50/50 gamble (in your case, only extreme GBP bearishness made it look good, but any line would have worked just as well! Weekly EMA55 or whatever).

Ichimoku already has an S/R system built into it, it is called the Chinkou span. If you show me a "return to equilibrium" which is butting up against a major Chinkou line then I will not call it gambling.
  • #4,442
  • Edited 12:52am Oct 2, 2009 12:50am | Edited 12:52am
Quoting sinner-
Well I agree with you about equilibrium. So why do you think equilibrium lines are S/R? They are not. They are not zones where buyers and sellers converge, they are equilibrium lines. They indicate the price has returned to equilibrium, taking a short from the line might as well be a 50/50 gamble (in your case, only extreme GBP bearishness made it look good, but any line would have worked just as well! Weekly EMA55 or whatever).

Ichimoku already has an S/R system built into it, it is called the Chinkou span. If you show me a "return to equilibrium"...
Well put Sinner . I can clearly see that you have a lot of experience with forex and with Ichimoku as well. I would be interested to know your definition of Support/Resistance and how it differs to equilibrium.

Also, I understand that the Chinkou Span's purpose is to establish if current PA is above or below previous PA to assist with understanding if there is a trend? Can you please explain why and how you would use the Chinkou Span to show S/R?

Lastly, I disagree with your opinion about equilibrium. From my perspective, equilibrium acts as Support in a trending pair because it is the area where PA needs to return to before continuing the trend. For example, the daily KS represents equilibrium for the last 26 periods. In a strong weekly trend, we cannot expect price to fly downwards 5000 pips at once. Instead, PA is continually trending and then pulling back to equilibrium before continuing the trend and then pulling back to equilibrium etc.

Your point about the GBP bearishness making my trade is 100% correct. The EUR/GBP is a prime example. The PA is above the kumo on the weekly and daily and is clearly in a strong upward trend at the moment. This reflects the bearishness of the GBP in the fundamentals. Therefore, the EUR/GBP is attracting more bulls than bears which is driving the PA upwards. Therefore, when the PA returns to the 4hourly KS, I am expecting this move to be a pullback and that the trend will continue in the near future.

In a strong trend, the safest entry point for the medium term would be the areas of equilibrium where PA desperately wants to return before continuing in the trend.

I apologise that I am not as concise as you are . Please feel free to respond, I am always looking to learn and wanting to improve my understanding of forex and the Ichi.
  • #4,443
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:01am Oct 2, 2009 1:01am
Quoting sinner-
Well I agree with you about equilibrium. So why do you think equilibrium lines are S/R? They are not. They are not zones where buyers and sellers converge, they are equilibrium lines. They indicate the price has returned to equilibrium, taking a short from the line might as well be a 50/50 gamble (in your case, only extreme GBP bearishness made it look good, but any line would have worked just as well! Weekly EMA55 or whatever).

Ichimoku already has an S/R system built into it, it is called the Chinkou span. If you show me a "return to equilibrium"...
Hey Sinner,

There is a Chinkou Span Resistance Range coincident with the Week Ks. Is that what you mean?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Oct. 01 22.58.gif Size: 48 KB
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,444
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:14am Oct 2, 2009 1:14am
Quoting Giny
Well put Sinner . I can clearly see that you have a lot of experience with forex and with Ichimoku as well. I would be interested to know your definition of Support/Resistance and how it differs to equilibrium.

Also, I understand that the Chinkou Span's purpose is to establish if current PA is above or below previous PA to assist with understanding if there is a trend? Can you please explain why and how you would use the Chinkou Span to show S/R?

Lastly, I disagree with your opinion about equilibrium. From my perspective, equilibrium...
Hi Giny,

Here is The IchimokouWiki.pdf that goes into using the C-Span as S & R.

It was posted early in the thread. Have you read the thread? I like your premise though.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf IchimokuWiki.pdf   466 KB | 574 downloads
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,445
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:44am Oct 2, 2009 1:44am
Giny, why do you think exactly that equilibrium is the best place to short from in a down trend? Equilibrium is the point at which the price can go whichever direction it likes, including chop/range.

You say "equilibrium is support in a trend" this is wrong, support is support in a trend. When the two zones converge, you are talking about high expectancy trade (as I already said twice), you can even just use S/R without equilibrium but you cannot use equilibrium without S/R (unless you don't care about the outcome).

Using horizontal lines from Chinkou span has been explained a hundred times in this thread already. I am surprised you are willing to put so much work into your concept without even understanding the lines on your chart.

Yes fxScavenger, you give a good example, lbtrader has posted plenty as have I.

Let me try and make it explicitly clear: there is NO expectancy from trading MAs. Be they the special Ichi MAs or otherwise. An average of past price movements has no expectancy for the future. Why should it? If you can explain why an average of the past prices should have an expectancy of the future price please let me know you will be rich. Chinkou span is not an MA, it is just the PA.

The strong signal that vic uses works for a reason and it has nothing to do with the lines, the lines simply indicate pullback and resumption of the trend, that is all.
  • #4,446
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:46am Oct 2, 2009 1:46am
Hi Giny
I've been following your strategy for the past few weeks with interest, and while you picked up an important aspect of the kijun sen which is the equilibrium and in this respect by itself it will behave as an indicator of overbought and oversold condition. look at any chart and you will see that when the price goes too far from the ks line it will flatten and draws it back (the force of pull is variable of course), of course the charts will also show that many a time the price will pull back to the TS or KS and then resume its previous course, in this respect these lines will behave as S/R lines but one does not know when a price will be stopped by KS or when it will go thru it and continue. this is when the chikou span comes into play. by displaying the price action as a line instead of candle you can see the peaks and troughs of recent and distant support and resistance which you can mark by horizontal lines or by just eyeballing them. if you read the ichimokuwiki pdf file you will see that among the 5 strategies that are presented all of them depend among other things, upon the chikou span one way or the other, and that is why one should use all the components of the ichimoku in order to decide if a trade will succeed or fail. the case studies in this document are brilliantly designed and I keep going back to them whenever my view is clouded by too much noise or emotion.
I hope this clarifies some issues about this great system and I wish all the newcomers keep a highlight of the rules that took Goishi Hosoda 30 years to perfect and not try to fit their own rules into a great system. (the last statement is not addressed to you Giny)
  • #4,447
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:03am Oct 2, 2009 2:03am
Quoting lbtrader
Hi Giny
I've been following your strategy for the past few weeks with interest, and while you picked up an important aspect of the kijun sen which is the equilibrium and in this respect by itself it will behave as an indicator of overbought and oversold condition. look at any chart and you will see that when the price goes too far from the ks line it will flatten and draws it back (the force of pull is variable of course), of course the charts will also show that many a time the price will pull back to the TS or KS and then resume its previous...
  • #4,448
  • Edited 3:16am Oct 2, 2009 2:27am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting ab1
Hey Vic

Hope you didnt work too hard today.....

Quick question........on the GBPUSD everything seems to be pointing bearish again, a cross is close on M5 and then completes the picture for a possible short, although there is a massive flat top on the Kumo there, so could still be a bit dodgey. However two days ago we had a large downward pin bar on the Daily that to me is a pretty good sign that the price will drop further, just from a price action/candle formation point of view.

But with Ichi being involed in the equation now for me, I...
I think you might be ok trading the longer timeframes but anything else your stops will most likely get wiped out by the NFP report due out Friday. NFP Fridays are no trade days for me. When the report was released, at least the last 2 times, price has spiked up by 50-70+ pips and then spiked down 100 pips or so.
  • #4,449
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:26am Oct 2, 2009 3:26am
Quoting SanMiguel
I think you might be ok trading the longer timeframes but anything else your stops will most likely get wiped out by the NFP report due out Friday. NFP Fridays are no trade days for me. The last 2 months price has spiked up by 50-70+ pips and then spiked down 100 pips or so.
Morning

Well I was in short at 1.5887, so currently down slightly. I was going to get out for a quick 20 pips at around 1.5869 just before S3...and nearly did, but looking at the bigger picture Im going to tough it out until it goes down to around 1.5837 which is just before MS4 for closer to 50 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd m5.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #4,450
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:31am Oct 2, 2009 3:31am
Hi People
Haven't checked previous posts to see if any of you have put this up but we could be looking at a big sell signal being scribed out on USD/JPY 15m chart. Any thoughts?
  • #4,451
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:45am Oct 2, 2009 3:45am
Well I bailed for a loss of 19 pips as the M5 closed above the KS.....

This whole thing is complete nonsense....not Ichimoku, but the whole thing.....Forex

How did that happen then ? That was so Bearish, it doesent surely get anymore bearish than that ?......

Seriously anyone that makes money out of this stuff is either a completed Magician, Lucky, A Broker or a Bank. Us lot just provide them with money !
  • #4,452
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:58am Oct 2, 2009 3:58am
Quoting ab1
Well I bailed for a loss of 19 pips as the M5 closed above the KS.....

This whole thing is complete nonsense....not Ichimoku, but the whole thing.....Forex

How did that happen then ? That was so Bearish, it doesent surely get anymore bearish than that ?......

Seriously anyone that makes money out of this stuff is either a completed Magician, Lucky, A Broker or a Bank. Us lot just provide them with money !
Ab1

-19p is not too much to lose mate, not if you've taken fear out of the equation with proper money management.

Don't forget it's NFP friday too, volume generally drops off in the hours leading up to it so perhaps the markets are susceptible to weird movements caused by smaller players.

I would advise you to take a few deeps breaths, have a coffee, get back out to a higher time frame, and if you dont intend to trade the NFP, suspend your Ichimoku trading and wait until the storm passes.

Chngster
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #4,453
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:00am Oct 2, 2009 4:00am
Your stop loss is too tight
  • #4,454
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:03am Oct 2, 2009 4:03am
Quoting ab1
Well I bailed for a loss of 19 pips as the M5 closed above the KS.....

This whole thing is complete nonsense....not Ichimoku, but the whole thing.....Forex

How did that happen then ? That was so Bearish, it doesent surely get anymore bearish than that ?......

Seriously anyone that makes money out of this stuff is either a completed Magician, Lucky, A Broker or a Bank. Us lot just provide them with money !
Hi ab1,
could you please indicate the reason why you entered at that level?
  • #4,455
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:06am Oct 2, 2009 4:06am
Quoting ab1
Well I bailed for a loss of 19 pips as the M5 closed above the KS.....

This whole thing is complete nonsense....not Ichimoku, but the whole thing.....Forex

How did that happen then ? That was so Bearish, it doesent surely get anymore bearish than that ?......

Seriously anyone that makes money out of this stuff is either a completed Magician, Lucky, A Broker or a Bank. Us lot just provide them with money !
When you ask that question, it's time to get an IBFX demo and learn VSA.
  • #4,456
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:27am Oct 2, 2009 4:27am
For anyone who is interested in VSA (Volume Spread Analysis), go to the first post at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629 for a primer.

Chngster
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #4,457
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:31am Oct 2, 2009 4:31am
Quoting 4xAddict


You are correct mate and therefore you make more per pip on your 50-60pip target.

There is not as large a difference in earnings potential as you may think between the fixed SL/TP method and the long TF trading method

Cheers.
Because in the LT trades you are going for more pips albeit at a reduced lot size?
  • #4,458
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:31am Oct 2, 2009 4:31am
Quoting chngster
Ab1

-19p is not too much to lose mate, not if you've taken fear out of the equation with proper money management.

Don't forget it's NFP friday too, volume generally drops off in the hours leading up to it so perhaps the markets are susceptible to weird movements caused by smaller players.

I would advise you to take a few deeps breaths, have a coffee, get back out to a higher time frame, and if you dont intend to trade the NFP, suspend your Ichimoku trading and wait until the storm passes.

Chngster
Hi Mate

19 pips I agree is nothing and yes I do have proper money management in place, so no big loss financially. I just dont like losing...period...in anything in fact ! Especially when I beleive in this case all the signals were in place to go short.

All the signals pointed to bearish, all TF at the point of entry.

So the potential cross coming up on M5....do you take it or not...any impacting news is 3 hours away still ?
  • #4,459
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:34am Oct 2, 2009 4:34am
Quoting sinner-
When you ask that question, it's time to get an IBFX demo and learn VSA.
Im sure your trying to be helpful but......................VSA ....is ?


cheers



ab1
  • #4,460
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:44am Oct 2, 2009 4:44am
Im begining to wonder if scalping is the answer. I seem to have been around the block several times in my enormously long 4 month forex career to date.....lol

Altough my experience is limited to date what I have learnt is that the long term trend is the key to more success, but action is slow and you miss out on a lot of pips through general price action movement in the process, whilst waiting for your long term trade to mature.

So what are most of you full time guys doing ?

I know people ive spoken to that sit in front of there monitors all day and scalp dozens of trades for a 3-5 pip average and work off the basis that as soon as a trade goes into profit they will take it....wow ! sounds like a busy and stressful day...lol ...but hey if it works... !
5 traders viewing now