Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#4,941
Sep 30, 2009 11:07pm Sep 30, 2009 11:07pm

ben10
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts

wow aud/usd falling slowly and steady and more pips tnahks

#4,942
Sep 30, 2009 11:09pm Sep 30, 2009 11:09pm

ben10
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts

im worry about 8795, can she break it?

#4,943
Sep 30, 2009 11:14pm Sep 30, 2009 11:14pm

puks
| Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 902 Posts

Quoting fammira

Disliked

I know there's this chance, but it still sounds strange to me that in such global conditions Australia is considering to move rates up from 3%

I am afraid Australia is quite too optimistic about his economy, maybe US lesson should be better learnt.
Also, will such a strong AUD really be good for a further recovery?

Ignored

I believe after a strong retail sales data market are pricing in 20% rake hike as early as next week (part of the reason the pair is above .88) and some participents are factoring in back-to-back interest rate hikes in November and December of .25% each.

The reality will soon settle in and expect this pair to fall below 87 come Tuesday 2.30 pm sydney time, if not tomorrow.

I went short first at average .8810, covered that at .8800, then I went long last night at .8780 and took 50 pips profit (my first ever 50 pip profit) on smallest lot and then entered a short at .8837 which I covered at .8825 and waiting on the sidelines.

If it wants to range, its fine - I'll also range trade.

One can either make 200 profit in one trade or trade 50 pips back and forth 4 times.

#4,944
Sep 30, 2009 11:21pm Sep 30, 2009 11:21pm

fammira
| Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Cesco | 1,140 Posts

Quoting ben10

Disliked

could not agree more with you, the jobs ad here in australia is encouraging but still lot of people try to find jobs, run up price in aud/usd , perhaps speculation?

Ignored

as puks said, they will rise 0.25, if not in the coming meeting during one of the next ones

You said still lot people now looking for a job, do you have an idea if many of these ones have lost their previous job in the last 12 months?

That would be interesting to know

#4,945
Sep 30, 2009 11:38pm Sep 30, 2009 11:38pm

ben10
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts

nice move add more short and add more long for eur/aud as 1.66 was cracked

http://img03.imagefra.me/img/img03/2...2m_f8eacd2.png

#4,946
Sep 30, 2009 11:40pm Sep 30, 2009 11:40pm

ben10
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts

88 broken add more short

#4,947
Sep 30, 2009 11:40pm Sep 30, 2009 11:40pm

reform
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 23 Posts

Hi,

Once the Australian government stimulus is dropped i.e 50% tax bonus for business to purchase captial items i.e vehicles, and also the 30k first homebuyers bonus, we will see where the enconomy lands. Currently their is a great deal of optimism in a number of sectors, the rise of sharemarkets around the globe seems to assist in this general confidence in economy.
Personally I think confidence in the economy will erode if Wall st heads sharply lower, dragging down confidence, increasing margin calls in a falling stockmarket etc etc.
By all accounts we are still in a bear market rally, the largest wave 3 is still to unfold, if this wave 3 does unfold the talk will be lowering Interest rates not raising, so far the Australian government is winning in increasing confidence in the ecomony, but if we get the wave 3 down watch out the AUD currrency will absolutely tank lower, this is a confidence game and the final outcome is still in the balance.

Regards

reform

#4,948
Sep 30, 2009 11:42pm Sep 30, 2009 11:42pm

ben10
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts

Quoting ben10

Disliked

im worry about 8795, can she break it?

Ignored

it will resist , bounce and bounce

#4,949
Sep 30, 2009 11:44pm Sep 30, 2009 11:44pm

ben10
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts

got to go to work had to hedge by buying nzd/long and move the stop for the eur/aud

see you all tonite, Ciao!

#4,950
Oct 1, 2009 12:02am Oct 1, 2009 12:02am

puks
| Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 902 Posts

Quoting reform

Disliked

Hi,

Once the Australian government stimulus is dropped i.e 50% tax bonus for business to purchase captial items i.e vehicles, and also the 30k first homebuyers bonus, we will see where the enconomy lands. Currently their is a great deal of optimism in a number of sectors, the rise of sharemarkets around the globe seems to assist in this general confidence in economy.
Personally I think confidence in the economy will erode if Wall st heads sharply lower, dragging down confidence, increasing margin calls in a falling stockmarket etc etc.
By all...

Ignored

Hi Reform,

May I please add that the housing grant is only 21K and that is only for the brand new homes. The last day was yesterday, now its 14K and from next month it will only be 7K.

Regarding wall st. tanking, there are a lot of people with cash on the sidelines so I am afraid we will ever see a sharp correction, if any. Most likely it will be a W shape recovery with each bottom is higher than the original dip.

The main reason for this stronger AUD is the interest rate differential (RBA recently made in excess of 5 billion just from the carry trade). I have a feeling (I could be totally wrong) that we'll see .90 cents first before we see .80 cents.

Market is pricing in 20% chance of rate hike next week and 80% chance of rate hike in november and 100% chance of rate hike in 2009.

As RBA said y'day the rising house pricing is a worry and could create a property bubble in the market so in order to control that it will still hike the rates.

Tomorrow's NFP numbers will most likely be worst than expected as market is way too over optimistic about jobless numbers.

Tomorrow could be the first day of volatile October and we may see, as Fammira suggested, a dip to levels around .86 cents if not 85 or 84.

AUD will find a lot of buyers at a psychological 85 c level.

#4,951
Edited 12:49am Oct 1, 2009 12:39am | Edited 12:49am

reform
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 23 Posts

My apologies of getting the number wrong (home grant) I am waiting for the AUD to break below 60 US cents, you could be correct regarding the 90c level, however my personal opinion is that the AUD will really tank at some stage, buyers can quickly dissappear when panic is the order of the day, the AUD is till in a rising wedge pattern on the monthly chart, if pattern confirms a large drop should eventuate, I personally am encouraged when people say I doubt things will happen, last year when the AUD tanked from 98 to 60 cents the majority were looking at parity, virtually no one expected this large and sudden drop, people who were looking at buying at certain support levels got killed, I have learnt that anything can happen in the markets I have a sell order on the USD/Aud at the 89 level. If the AUD goes up from 89 I will experience drawdown, remember that nothing is certain the AUD could reach parity again, but then again the world economy is only in the early stages of deleveraging, wave 2 is designed to gain everyones confidence again ( this has been fullfilled), wave 3 should destroy this confidence and cause havoc, good luck but expect the unexpected.
As for the interest rate differential, the carry trade is fine, however when their is a rush to exit the falls can be severe.

Kind Regards

Reform

#4,952
Oct 1, 2009 12:47am Oct 1, 2009 12:47am

puks
| Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 902 Posts

Quoting reform

Disliked

My apologies of getting the number wrong (home grant) I am waiting for the AUD to break below 60 US cents, you could be correct regarding the 90c level, however my personal opinion is that the AUD will really tank at some stage, buyers can quickly dissappear when panic is the order of the day, the AUD is till in a rising wedge pattern on the monthly chart, if pattern confirms a large drop should eventuate, I personally am encouraged when people say I doubt things will happen, last year when the AUD tanked from 98 to 60 cents the majority were looking...

Ignored

I completely agree but last year's move and last year's event is once in a lifetime event for most of us.

Fundamentally, if you look at the PriceParityIndex (PPI), aud/usd should ideally range around .80-90 cents.

US was responsible for this global financial crisis and so it will pay the price for it too. Every other economy in the world will come out of recession faster and earlier than US does.

IMHO, unless we see a double dip recession, we are unlikely to see .60 cents level again, anytime soon.

But as you rightly said, unpect the unexpected in this forex market and with all due respect to all experienced people out there, i am very very new to this market- only 3 months old baby :-))

Good pipping.

#4,953
Oct 1, 2009 12:50am Oct 1, 2009 12:50am

Fx24k
| Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 54 Posts

down she goes
finally pierced 8800!

#4,954
Oct 1, 2009 12:51am Oct 1, 2009 12:51am

siboy
| Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 470 Posts

.8790 cracked

#4,955
Oct 1, 2009 12:59am Oct 1, 2009 12:59am

reform
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 23 Posts

Hi, Puks thanks for your comments, generally you are correct, however dont believe this once in a lifetime event thing, just look at the market crash in the 1930's the market crashed went up 50 or so %, only to go down harder, we may only be in the early stages of deleveraging.

Time will tell.

Regards

Reform

#4,956
Oct 1, 2009 1:06am Oct 1, 2009 1:06am

thadakman
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 457 Posts

Quoting thadakman

Disliked

From Forex Insider:

Bearish divergence in AUD/USD hourly MACD suggests short-term top is in... by 0.8840/45 -- needs back below 0.8770 to shift the focus lower.

Ignored

We're getting close to the level that should shift this lower!

#4,957
Oct 1, 2009 1:47am Oct 1, 2009 1:47am

puks
| Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 902 Posts

Quoting siboy

Disliked

.8790 cracked

Ignored

It keeps bouncing from .8780 - a strong support. This is the same level which, not long ago, was a strong resistance.

if break .8780, expect a fall of another 30 pip to psych level of .8750 but a technical support level from there would be .8680-.8700

#4,958
Oct 1, 2009 1:52am Oct 1, 2009 1:52am