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  • #13,161
  • Sep 26, 2009 8:53am Sep 26, 2009 8:53am
Big level looming below at 87.00 area.
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  • #13,162
  • Sep 27, 2009 7:04am Sep 27, 2009 7:04am
Hi, Billy Ray. I was directed to your site by someone who posted on and IHUB forex board I hang out at. I've been trading equities and options for several years and have become proficient at charting in general. I've been trading Forex for not quite a year now and have had decent success but I've been looking for something more consistent that would remove the emotional tendency to pull the trigger too soon or too late.

I've been reading through your tutorials and have found them very helpful. I'm applying your S/R approach to my charts and I'm seeing the bigger picture now on many things I've missed.

I wanted to post this image I completed of E/U daily with S/R levels as well as that nice rising bearish wedge coupled with the negative divergence on the MACD. You may have to zoom in to see the finer SR points. I'm not familiar with the best way to post pics here. Any and all comments welcome.

Thanks in advance. :-)
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  • #13,163
  • Sep 27, 2009 10:48am Sep 27, 2009 10:48am
Hi Nettechs,

BillyRV has not been here for a while, and I think it is unlikely that he will give you a response. I have been here for a few months, and this thread is not that active at the moment. May I ask you what method you have been using for your decent success, and why they are not consistent?

cheers,

kk007

Quoting nettechs
Hi, Billy Ray. I was directed to your site by someone who posted on and IHUB forex board I hang out at. I've been trading equities and options for several years and have become proficient at charting in general. I've been trading Forex for not quite a year now and have had decent success but I've been looking for something more consistent that would remove the emotional tendency to pull the trigger too soon or too late.

I've been reading through your tutorials and have found them very helpful. I'm applying your S/R approach to my charts and I'm...
  • #13,164
  • Sep 27, 2009 3:18pm Sep 27, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting kk007
Hi Nettechs,

BillyRV has not been here for a while, and I think it is unlikely that he will give you a response. I have been here for a few months, and this thread is not that active at the moment. May I ask you what method you have been using for your decent success, and why they are not consistent?

cheers,

kk007

kk007,

i think this method is really good and can be incorporated into other trading methods. it is about support and resistance. i think it is time to leave the nest
  • #13,165
  • Sep 27, 2009 10:30pm Sep 27, 2009 10:30pm
Quoting shiko
kk007,

i think this method is really good and can be incorporated into other trading methods. it is about support and resistance. i think it is time to leave the nest
Hi Shiko,

Glad to see you post here again. Yes. S/R is an important thing to learn. Even if you are to trading other methods, having learned S/R will benefit you in using other methods. Best wishes for your trading success.

kk007
  • #13,166
  • Sep 28, 2009 4:54am Sep 28, 2009 4:54am
Quoting nettechs
Hi, Billy Ray. I was directed to your site by someone who posted on and IHUB forex board I hang out at. I've been trading equities and options for several years and have become proficient at charting in general. I've been trading Forex for not quite a year now and have had decent success but I've been looking for something more consistent that would remove the emotional tendency to pull the trigger too soon or too late.

I've been reading through your tutorials and have found them very helpful. I'm applying your S/R approach to my charts and I'm...
hello.. nice daily chart , i always look at the dailys first for obvious s&r then pinpoint any areas with the 4and 1 hr charts .. would be good to see any levels your looking at in particular , keep posting.. cheers booker..
  • #13,167
  • Sep 28, 2009 5:15am Sep 28, 2009 5:15am
interesting area 109.80 range .. high volume selling pressure bar with other s&r in a range also 76% retracement .. quite at the moment .

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  • #13,168
  • Sep 28, 2009 9:34am Sep 28, 2009 9:34am
Quoting kk007
Hi Nettechs,

BillyRV has not been here for a while, and I think it is unlikely that he will give you a response. I have been here for a few months, and this thread is not that active at the moment. May I ask you what method you have been using for your decent success, and why they are not consistent?

cheers,

kk007
Hi kk007. Thank you for your response.

My past experience with trading Forex relied heavily upon indicators for entry and exit points and not enough on support and resistance combined with candle psychology. Basically, I'm attempting to strengthen my past trading results with a deeper commitment to watching longer term S/R along with watching more closely for reversals in the candles.

As an example, I entered a long in the Beast a couple of days ago using a series of indicators that basically said we had reached a bottom. My success rate using this in the past six months has been 90% or higher. Then, I watched as the Beast plunged lower and lower by 200 pip intervals far beyond what I have seen on my indicators in the past. I feel like we have now reached a bottom as of Sunday night but the support level at 139.76 was well below what I had envisioned from an indicator standpoint.

So, when I get smacked hard like I did this time, I feel it necessary to sit down and re-evaluate my trading methods. I'll come out fine because I still have plenty of margin and have cost averaged down to the point where I will come out profitable. Still, it unnerved me to have my indicator setup fail me so miserably.

I'm seeing a great deal of promise by relying less on indicators and more on S/R and the candles.

Basically, I'm setting up key S/R points from the daily or even weekly charts and then scaling back down to lower time frame charts to catch the swings in between support and resistance. That seems to be a much more reliable system than just watching the indicators.

I would be very interested in what people here have found that works for them as well.

Thanks in advance for any info you can provide.
  • #13,169
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:13am Sep 28, 2009 10:13am
There is something tricky about seeing a method to be successful. Some method works very well during trendy time (which can last for years/months). So, they keep being profitable until the market do not trend anymore, and the method users loss back their profit.

Some people has a money management method with no stoploss, 90% of time they win. Only later they discover that they have a loss which is so large the it cancel out all their previous profit.

As Ironman said, indicators are lagged. I think indicators also inhibit the use of common sense, which is essential to making judgement.


Quoting nettechs
Hi kk007. Thank you for your response.

My past experience with trading Forex relied heavily upon indicators for entry and exit points and not enough on support and resistance combined with candle psychology. Basically, I'm attempting to strengthen my past trading results with a deeper commitment to watching longer term S/R along with watching more closely for reversals in the candles.

As an example, I entered a long in the Beast a couple of days ago using a series of indicators that basically said we had reached a bottom. My success rate using...
  • #13,170
  • Sep 28, 2009 12:36pm Sep 28, 2009 12:36pm
Hi Nettechs,

A couple of things in your last post concerned me, assuming I understood you correctly. I'll comment on them, and please don't take offense if I misunderstood, or if you disagree. The comments are offered constructively and also in accord with what BRV has tought in this thread.

You posted: "Then, I watched as the Beast plunged lower and lower by 200 pip intervals ...... So, when I get smacked hard like I did this time....". Do I understand that you did not have a stop in place? Not IMO good practice, in any trading methodology. Many reasons, but here is one: Last Friday, I was in a trade that was not going as I desired. It was retracing back towards my entry and I manually closed it for a 2 PIP loss. Or so I thought. My platform did not acknowledge the order and on investigation, I found that my Internet had gone down. It remained intermittant for the next half hour. And by the time I was able to get the broker on the phone, price had hit my preset stop and instead of a 2 pip loss, it was a 30 pip loss. So much for good trade management. But think what the loss might have been without that stop?

You posted: "Still, it unnerved me to have my indicator setup fail me so miserably." Well, it didn't fail you at all. At least as I and most others that I know trade. The point is that trading is all about probabilities. You stated that you were achieving 90% with your indicators and your methods. Wow! That is excellant. So what is wrong with one trade not achieving what you would like? Your methods give you an edge; not a guarantee. So 90% of the time it works and 10% of the time it doesn't. Whats wrong with that? Just exercise good trade management, manage your risk properly (stops) and say "NEXT" and look for the next opportunity. Your edge will take care of your wins; you must take care of your losses.

Finally, having said all that, it sounds like you have a darn good method of trading, even if it uses indicators. Just because you lost big on one trade (which as you probably can tell, IMO it was not the fault of your methods or your indicator, but of your risk management) is no reason to abandon your method and go looking for another way to trade. You just need to revisit your management.

I hope this makes some sense.

SR
  • #13,171
  • Sep 28, 2009 2:26pm Sep 28, 2009 2:26pm
Possible short here on U/J @ 90.33-90.47 range. Good S/R here and coincides with a 50% fib on h1 downward move
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  • #13,172
  • Sep 28, 2009 4:32pm Sep 28, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting seattlerust
Hi Nettechs,

A couple of things in your last post concerned me, assuming I understood you correctly. I'll comment on them, and please don't take offense if I misunderstood, or if you disagree. The comments are offered constructively and also in accord with what BRV has tought in this thread.

You posted: "Then, I watched as the Beast plunged lower and lower by 200 pip intervals ...... So, when I get smacked hard like I did this time....". Do I understand that you did not have a stop in place? Not IMO good practice, in any trading methodology....

Thank you for your response. I really do appreciate all the feed back. I'm always open to improving my trading methods. I have to admit that the method has served me well in the past. And, you're right...I did not set a stop loss. In hindsight, that wasn't my best move...LOL! My past experience in trading the Beast showed me that when my indicator setup hit a particular level for a short or long, there was a high probability of a 100 pip swing in the wrong direction after my entry before the new trend began. That sounds like a lot but considering the swings the Beast is capable of, it wasn't a real issue on the risk/reward level. This method has actually allowed me to double my game account balance not once but twice in less than six months. I reserved plenty of margin so I could always average down if it dropped further, which is what I did this time as well. I'll come out fine but it was quite a trip.

The magnitude of the swing is what caught me by surprise. The indicators I use actually flat-lined on the 3 hour chart and stayed that way. I'd never seen that situation before. They also flat-lined on the daily as well. Usually, that's a recipe for an explosion upward on the Beast so I jumped in. I've really never seen that kind of downward pressure maintained.

That's what started me thinking...how could I have made a better entry than the one I did? Someone on our IHUB board suggested this site and when I started digging I realized that I had almost totally neglected long term support and resistance levels. When I plugged in those on the daily chart, then the level the Beast hit around 139.75 wasn't surprising at all. Combine that with candle psychology and the trigger to enter long didn't appear until Sunday night.

All in all, I don't want to abandon what I have because it does work well. I do need more risk management as you suggested. No doubt about that...LOL! But I'm also seeking to refine my method so that I don't depend as much on indicators as I do on price action combined with S/R.

Thanks again for the suggestions. I'll definitely be incorporating them in my trading strategy.
  • #13,173
  • Sep 28, 2009 4:35pm Sep 28, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting Interceptor
Big level looming below at 87.00 area.

87 is my target as well Interceptor. Looking for a strong bounce in that area.
  • #13,174
  • Edited 10:11pm Sep 29, 2009 9:46pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting chazlanning
Possible short here on U/J @ 90.33-90.47 range. Good S/R here and coincides with a 50% fib on h1 downward move
Nice call
  • #13,175
  • Sep 30, 2009 1:31am Sep 30, 2009 1:31am
Quoting xeneric
Nice call
Thank you sir
  • #13,176
  • Sep 30, 2009 2:41am Sep 30, 2009 2:41am
anybody short G/U at 1.6061? target is 1.5925.. stop loss 20 pips.
  • #13,177
  • Sep 30, 2009 6:22am Sep 30, 2009 6:22am
Quoting chazlanning
Possible short here on U/J @ 90.33-90.47 range. Good S/R here and coincides with a 50% fib on h1 downward move
Convergence with 61% of the most recent sell off and the daily TL also helped this short position.

Nice one Chaz.
  • #13,178
  • Sep 30, 2009 7:37am Sep 30, 2009 7:37am
This Over/Under pattern with the historical S/R as about 1.4629 failed. The pattern usually works well. I think even in M5. I couldn't figure out the reason. Thanks RedCabbage for pointing out the news effect at the bar. Yes the scheduled speaking of Weber was started 1 hour before the S/R piercing, but the news release about the speaking (as I checked real-time news log) happened only 1 bar before the piercing.
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  • #13,179
  • Sep 30, 2009 1:51pm Sep 30, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Convergence with 61% of the most recent sell off and the daily TL also helped this short position.

Nice one Chaz.
Thanks RC, I just noticed that TL
  • #13,180
  • Sep 30, 2009 2:45pm Sep 30, 2009 2:45pm
Hi guys, could someone explain what happened on the long long candle in eur/chf? I can't see any heavy news related to swissy, so what was the stimulus behind that move? It was just the consolidation before or sth else? Thanks in advance.
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