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AUD/USD

  • #4,821
  • Sep 29, 2009 8:35pm Sep 29, 2009 8:35pm
Head & shoulder at 5min chart AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 24.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #4,822
  • Sep 29, 2009 8:37pm Sep 29, 2009 8:37pm
Hi all,
Its nice reading different points of views here. When I saw the figures released today ( Building approvals and retail sales) my first reaction was that the first would put a negative effect on the dollar and the latter positive, I would have thought thast the effect of the lower than expected building approvals would be higher than the retail spending figure and so I went short at .8777, well I was wrong initially as we saw the dollar rise up to above .88, but my charts tell me that this baby is coming downto about .8764 or so. Any ideas?
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #4,823
  • Sep 29, 2009 9:00pm Sep 29, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting shahab8b
Head & shoulder at 5min chart AUDUSD

I shorted this pair at .8790
  • #4,824
  • Sep 29, 2009 9:07pm Sep 29, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting puks
I shorted this pair at .8790
Hi puks,
Have you collected nice money from your long EURUSD?
BTW, dont forget to put your SL at AUDUSD pair, you never know what's up next, & dont remove your SL if it's about to hit
I recommend to put it at .8810, the Neck of the Head & Shoulder has not broken yet, it's not a complete pattern
  • #4,825
  • Sep 29, 2009 9:25pm Sep 29, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi puks,
Have you collected nice money from your long EURUSD?
BTW, dont forget to put your SL at AUDUSD pair, you never know what's up next, & dont remove your SL if it's about to hit
I recommend to put it at .8810, the Neck of the Head & Shoulder has not broken yet, it's not a complete pattern

I made money in euro but washed it all (+ few more) in GBPUSD short. Shorted this pair from 1.5910 and exited at 1.6025. Ooouch...

All the small scalps I made are washed :-(
  • #4,826
  • Sep 29, 2009 9:25pm Sep 29, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi puks,
Have you collected nice money from your long EURUSD?
BTW, dont forget to put your SL at AUDUSD pair, you never know what's up next, & dont remove your SL if it's about to hit
I recommend to put it at .8810, the Neck of the Head & Shoulder has not broken yet, it's not a complete pattern
Stop-losss at .8815-20
  • #4,827
  • Sep 29, 2009 9:30pm Sep 29, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting thadakman
Nice Call! You were pretty much right on the money with that one!

From this point on, I don't really see much of a move higher or lower until the US ADP non-farm employment change data comes out at 8:15 Eastern Time; should finally give this pair the long awaited 0.8800 break or take her down and have all the people who shorted at this level very happy!
stay nimble , control the margin as the 3 hour chart tells different story but for short term play she exhibit weakness and 0.8747 is the target ,i got to go to work and see you tonite, Ciao!

http://img01.imagefra.me/img/img01/2...1m_e364862.png

have a good pipping !
  • #4,828
  • Sep 29, 2009 11:01pm Sep 29, 2009 11:01pm
seems the russians comment really helped Aud from the down move yesterday with other pairs against the dollar
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,829
  • Sep 29, 2009 11:04pm Sep 29, 2009 11:04pm
upward stop now, good selling point 0,8815 - 20

150 - 200 points down on the cards
  • #4,830
  • Sep 29, 2009 11:33pm Sep 29, 2009 11:33pm
Quoting fammira
upward stop now, good selling point 0,8815 - 20

150 - 200 points down on the cards
Nice call, so far the AUD 0.8800 break is looking like NZD when it broke 0.7300 a couple weeks ago (can't seem to hold)... let's hope it pulls back the same.
A lot of the upcoming move is going to be based on the US job data though, so we'll just have to see what kind of numbers those print and may not get good profits on these shorts until next week if the news happens to be positive.
  • #4,831
  • Sep 29, 2009 11:46pm Sep 29, 2009 11:46pm
I was expecting a downmove to 0,84-85 before going up further, but I think I was wrong

nevertheless I still expect AUD to see Monday's low at 0,8590 - 86

I am looking forward to cover my shorts there or slightly below (in case of downward stop hunt we could see 0,8540 - 50) and then go long

on the long side though I still prefere GBP cause I think it has more upside than AUD, commodities and equities can't go up forever, but speculation on GBP pushed it down quite far from highs
  • #4,832
  • Sep 29, 2009 11:49pm Sep 29, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting fammira
I was expecting a downmove to 0,84-85 before going up further, but I think I was wrong

nevertheless I still expect AUD to see Monday's low at 0,8590 - 86

I am looking forward to cover my shorts there or slightly below (in case of downward stop hunt we could see 0,8540 - 50) and then go long

on the long side though I still prefere GBP cause I think it has more upside than AUD, commodities and equities can't go up forever, but speculation on GBP pushed it down quite far from highs
I think you could get some nice bounces on GBP, like what just recently happened when it broke 1.6000 today... but it seems that the consensus a little longer term is that it's seen its highs and now should settle around 1.5000.

I think another good shorting opportunity is between 1.6200 and 1.6300.
  • #4,833
  • Sep 30, 2009 12:02am Sep 30, 2009 12:02am
Quoting thadakman
I think you could get some nice bounces on GBP, like what just recently happened when it broke 1.6000 today... but it seems that the consensus a little longer term is that it's seen its highs and now should settle around 1.5000.

I think another good shorting opportunity is between 1.6200 and 1.6300.
so would it be good to go long in gbp from here? I covered my shorts with 100 pips loss. very very small lot size though.
  • #4,834
  • Sep 30, 2009 12:13am Sep 30, 2009 12:13am
Quoting puks
so would it be good to go long in gbp from here? I covered my shorts with 100 pips loss. very very small lot size though.
Depends how you trade, personally, I would not take it right now b/c of the run it already had... I am able to limit my risk if the trade goes against me by planning my entries and getting in much earlier this way... b/c my overall bias is down (1.5000 level), I would short it between 1.6200-1.6300... b/c I'd be comfortable if the move initially went against me... breaks of 1.6300 I'd start looking for an exit.

1.6000 I would just not touch, it's a coin toss right here, it can easily jump a couple hundred pips or go all the way back down in the 1.5700's and maybe even test 1.5500 soon; I think it lost that 1.6000 handle a lot sooner than most people thought it would, and kept falling fast once it did!
  • #4,835
  • Sep 30, 2009 12:24am Sep 30, 2009 12:24am
Quoting thadakman
Depends how you trade, personally, I would not take it right now b/c of the run it already had... I am able to limit my risk if the trade goes against me by planning my entries and getting in much earlier this way... b/c my overall bias is down (1.5000 level), I would short it between 1.6200-1.6300... b/c I'd be comfortable if the move initially went against me... breaks of 1.6300 I'd start looking for an exit.

1.6000 I would just not touch, it's a coin toss right here, it can easily jump a couple hundred pips or go all the way back down in the...
i think that the cable will test the head & shoulder neck line @1.6180-95 before the down move its still a continution on the down trend to the lower 50s level this is my take on it
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,836
  • Sep 30, 2009 12:42am Sep 30, 2009 12:42am
The Aussie dollar was up against all 16 major currencies as retail sales climbed 0.9% in August after having dropped by the same amount in July, beating estimates of 0.5%. I consider this to be a very strong result and shows the continued strength in Australia. It touched a 13-month high of .8819 during intraday trading and I expect continued strength.
  • #4,837
  • Sep 30, 2009 12:44am Sep 30, 2009 12:44am
Quoting puks
so would it be good to go long in gbp from here? I covered my shorts with 100 pips loss. very very small lot size though.
hi puks, yesterday I think you said you were short from 1,5910

when a position goes black 20 - 30 pips, keep stop at entry
yesterday's low was 1,5823 so you should have covered yourself with a stop at entry that would allow to protect your margin, this is very important indeed

if position does not goes black at all, it is considered safe to put a stop at 30 - 50 pips according to the pair

I expect GBP to be below 1,59 again before going up more on the weekend
  • #4,838
  • Sep 30, 2009 1:16am Sep 30, 2009 1:16am
Quoting fammira
hi puks, yesterday I think you said you were short from 1,5910

when a position goes black 20 - 30 pips, keep stop at entry
yesterday's low was 1,5823 so you should have covered yourself with a stop at entry that would allow to protect your margin, this is very important indeed

if position does not goes black at all, it is considered safe to put a stop at 30 - 50 pips according to the pair

I expect GBP to be below 1,59 again before going up more on the weekend
hi Fammira,

I was short after that move to 1.5820 so when it was on its way up, I entered short thinking it would touch 57-58 level. Now currently I am on sideslines and waiting for better entry for my short.

may enter around 1.6090-6100..
  • #4,839
  • Sep 30, 2009 1:49am Sep 30, 2009 1:49am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Timing is a Critical Component of a Successful AUDUSD Range Tuesday, 29 September 2009 19:05:46 GMT

Suggested Strategy
• Short: We will be fighting the larger trend, so an aggressive entry of 0.8750 is warranted.
• Stop: A stop of 0.8815 is a modest buffer over the range of highs in the event of a break. To secure profit, move the stop on the second lot to breakeven when the first target hits.
• Target: The first objective is set wider than risk (95) at 0.8655. The second is 0.8610.

*** if this is the case and the whole world is shorting then how the hell its just keep moving up ***

is anyone here long?
  • #4,840
  • Sep 30, 2009 2:02am Sep 30, 2009 2:02am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
just doubled my short amount at 8821

should i be worried?
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