Journal of Zol

Very quiet day, small movements, still a lot of good entry opportunities!

I did this trade in the morning and I in a loss area. Not closed yet. I initiated a short position at the right place, at 5938, with a small size. Then, when we got some 20 pips momentum, I added a proper position size. I was some 25 pips profit with my small position and now I am in a loss because I did not add the position as a new proper entry bar appeared. In fact, no proper entry bar appeared I entered in the middle of the bar. Wrong this is. If this bar closes up as a strong bar I will close my position to some .less than 1% loss of my account.

OK, the bar did close up BUT it was weak!

I took profit from the previous trade and my account is up to 2% with VERY low risk trades. Here is an update.

Compare this up trend (distribution):


I was in this move and increased my account to 1%. I am still struggling and at +1% increase of account balance.

And this (real up move):

I like this ninjatrader!!

So it is MM. Let us say my risk is x%. I calculate 25 pips.

Trade 1- SL hit, lost x%.

Trade 2- I am around 12 pips ad I exit my half position. No to have at least BE my other half needs to go to 38 pips (26 more).

To generate profit of RR 1:1 this needs to go to additional 50 pips, which means, to have x% gain after a 25 pip SL got hit I need a 88 pips move on my second trade with this strategy!!!! This does not happen often to me, so I struggle with BE situation.

Maybe better not to take partial profit?
Look at chart. I exited the bulk of my position only to witness the down move from a RISK free trade! Eh....

That is not true. I am not lasy just busy with other stuff. Consequently I need to adjust my learning of trading to longer term trading. I should use smaller TF only to scale ino a trade and better potential understand turning points. I do not have a time to watch the screen an a constant bases. I set up my mobilt to alarm me every 4H when a candle closes on the 4H TF. I am sure I will watch it sometimes in between but only to monitor my trades.

It is equally nice to me to write down what I observe. I do that anyway on my computer but I am afraid that can get lost for whatever reason. This can not. Moreover this can not be deleted by myself so it will be evidence to me later on.

I am rather passonate so need to go for more relaxed trading on 4H, daily charts. Stress free trading may be much better to me. So here we go to continue what my reading is.

By the way, I think tape reading is great stuff and VSA is king!

2009.11.24.

Morning.

ACAD broke down eventually and bounced up from 9704. I was out of position because I do not like if I am in the market if I am in the market and it is going nowhere. My odds get smaller then. A strong 4H bar is being developed ad it actually shows similar pattern to AU and EU. Daily bar is also strong.

AJ bounced off from 82.50, a level I should have have on the chart. It is approaching 80.80 and if it breaks 79.80 I will consider a potential trend reversal.

AU came off 92.71 and formed another HL on 4H. Up trens is still in place but this is a decision zone. Sidelines at the moment, the pair is still going down on 4H.

The up move retraced to 50% and I am in my AH trade in some 54 pips profit. Not so impressive progress but I pulled my stop so I can lose only some 30 pips. Weakness appeared on the previous 4H bar.

ECAD stopped the down move at 5783 and heading up so correcting the down move on 4H to 50%. This was the trade I missed by 2.4 pips. I still anticipate this to go down and touch the lower TL.

EJ is progressing down from the 4H pin so my short was very profitable although I used standard position size. I anticipate serious struggle at 131.80, even potential reversal. I am with 50 pips TS so can not be harmed.

EU could not make it through 5000 and heading down with slower intensity. The fifth attempt to break 5000 failed and adding more weight to a bearish case. It is possible that we witness a trend change. Sidelines better at the moment.

GU chip-chop went down from a nice 4H pin. It is struggling at support at 6530. A strong bar appeared on 4H so my as well go up from here. We still have HL on daily but LH on 4H so the pair in chip-chop mode.

UCAD made another HL which is really not interesting. The bullish case of this pair is coming to confirmation stage. I would like to see higher TL broken and a HH but I am getting more and more happier with this idea. Also, if UCAD trending up, EU and AU will be trending down. I noted above that the bullishness of those two is getting out of gas so this may as well be the case. Further confirmation required.

UJ approaching 88.50 from above. A nice 4H pin would have put us into a short trade but the potential support is way too close. It can still bounce up or break through.

I pulled my EA trade to BE with 35 pips profit. This is and AH trade I can not afford to go to red from green I think. I am not out just yet since I lost 100, 35 is just not good enough. Another trade will compensate if I get stopped out.

I also read a lot about trading psychology lately and I believe that is the very thing matters. Sure nice and good to nderstand the price action adn Volume action of the market. However, it is imperative to understand my own mind for sure.

I need to make myself awareamong other things that

 

1. The outcome of an individual trade is irrelevant
2. Anything can happen
3. this is rather gambling to a certin degree and not about being super clever about financial markets
4. My intellectual thinking is somewhat in the way because I kept looking for sence and the ability of prediction. The market is unpredictable. Period.
5. It did help yesterday evening to think this activity over and associate it with poker. In poker I lose for sure. Often. But whether I played good or not in one evening I can tell only at the end of the evening not at each individual hand. If I play regularly I should rather monitor my money every end of the week or month!

Hope this helps to me now. Nice process though!!!!

I switched to MT5. It is still beta but I trade demo anyway. It is more advanced platform. I need to get to know these markets better so I will monitor only the majors from now on. I will only trade long term according my plan. I will not trade UC only if I am in long term position in EU and I feel a high probability for a counter scalp. I will not analyze and monitor this, it is there to provide perfect hedging opportunities.

Important to know that EU correlates with AU (on long run) and GU (to lesser degree on the short term) and negatively correlates with UC (almost perfectly) and UCAD (lesser degree and short term). EU also negatively correlates to UJ on shorter term.


AU is struggling to break through 9230 but as EU did break above 5000 I anticipate the upside progress of this pair too. Yesterdays candle in strong, and a 4H pin yesterday morning was there.

EU I am long since 4900. I already booked 1.7 lots with average of 115 pips. I am still long with 0.3 lot and plan to add to my position on a retracement. Yesterday was a strong bar, 12H strong and a pin, good pin on 6H, 4H and 2H at 50% level. Perfectly tradable. I am looking to add to my position on pullback to 5000. That is also 50% retrace of latest up swing.


GU yesterday strong bar from lower TL creating HL. The pair is moving up but at 6750 on 2H, 4H and 6H good indication of supply. Potential buy opportunity around 6640.

UCAD is moving down, which is expected as EU and AU is progressing up. I anticipate bounce at 420 to he upside so EU, AU to the downside. Yesterday is a weak bar at 50%, perfectly recognizable and tradable from 2H and 6H. As it could struggle through 420 there is high probability of bounce up from 200.

UJ- in clear downtrend. Yesterday was a weak bar. No clear high probability entries lately, only simple entry on any narrow spread lower V up bar. I anticipate further progress till 87.12; that level is important so a potential point for an upside bounce. Still, that would be a counter trend move and more risk is involved. Better to get into the trend when up bounce finished.

Further reduced the monitored pairs to 4.

AU - Made it up till 9392 and retracing now. Trend is up, there is long opportunity as it retracing to 50% and round number.

EU - stopped going up at 5143. The same as for AU, ideal level to long is 5000.

GU - Made up till 6745 and at 6600 atm. This is 50% confluence of 2 swings and round number. Good potential to long.

UJ - down till 86.30. Big move. Have not been deeper than this since some time before 2003. This is absolutely worth to give a try! It may be risky a conter trend trade for sire. This is the second attemt to go through and the pair is in a clear strong down trend. Maybe a limit order.

I am long AU @ 9225. EDIT: Wrong entry. Did not folow my rules. Exited.

Looking to long GU and EU if 50% works out.

My AU trade is 44 pips under water. Does not matter, I am just learning this thing.
I enterred to GU long @ 6558. I refused previous support, and up sloping trend line. Also, there was a 220 pips down move before.

I am looking at this zone on EU for potential long set up.

Still learning. I suddenly could open my previous demo account I do not know what happened before.

So:

added to EU long from 1.49063. New position: 1.4925
AU long @ 0.9131.
Looking to long GU if it makes it to 1.6534.

I hope that in 6 month I will be more winning than loosing trader.

Long @ GU @ 1.6509. Since the correction is in place this is a small position and I put a biger one to 1.6481 for a shake-out bar to pick it up.

Wish me luck.

All my three positions were stopped out. This is a great indication to me how I do things wrong.

To practise this method I already placed the AH order to EU, as it passed some 80 pips beyond the SL level. AU and GU did pass only some 50, I will wait a bi more.

EU - 0
AU -100
GU -100

EU, AU and GU experiencing a massive drop. According to Bloomberg it is because of Dubai but that does not matter anyway. UJ created a 4H strong bar yesterday an a daily pin to the upside. We are in new low ground so worth watching.

EDIT: I put the AH to GU and AU too. Also, I noted the Head and Shoulder on GU and AU to the downside.
Having said this I put th AU orders anyway since I am learning this method now.

Further AH orders got triggered.

AU AH long @ 9031
EU AH long @ 4926.

I am getting the idea of trading both EU and AU may not be the best idea as they do correlate. Instead trading EU with bitter positions could be better. Simply I expose myself to double risk f not finding the right places to enter. Similarly I theoretically also reduce my risk by trading these to. If bothe get hit, as it happend now, I get bigger loss.

Currently have much to learn as I got 3 SL hit.

EU, AU and GU buonced up from the big drop after Dubai messed into the market. This may be a correction but since the main trend is up on EU and AU I need to consider the move still up and not down. All the three AH trades were triggered.

At the moment:

GU 160 pips TS 100
EU 137 pips TS 100
AU 148 pips TS 100
UJ -79 pips.

London just opened and some sell off or profit aking started.

UJ opened long @ 86.92 only to prove that I have yet to learn patience and not trading in impulse. That trade was bad for sure. We reached new new low since more that 10 years and a super pin bar formed also. There is just some new ground underneath and no proper support therfore the trade is risky. However; I do not exit till my SL gets hit, it is almost there anyway. Also there is a quite stron bar on 1H so let us see what comes.

My UJ trade got stopped out. This is a very good lesson indeed. I had three trade going on why did I ever cared about UJ? Greed. Carelessness. I am eliminating these now but it is a process.

GU got stopped out to +100 pips also.

Hi,

my EU and AU trade is still on.

I entered a new GU long @ 1.6428