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Ichimoku forever

  • #4,101
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:31am Sep 28, 2009 7:31am
Quoting SanMiguel
Which pairs? Stick some charts up...
It's not confirmation on all timeframes so much as looking for the risk of retraces I think. When pairs have made big moves down, they simply have to retrace at some point as traders take profits. That's not to say a 5min cross won't mean it could go lower but if it's far away from the Ts/Ks then the likelihood of a retrace is higher.
I believe the high probability/success trades are nearer the kumo or Ks simply because of the S/R area and the fact you can have a smaller stop.
The GU trade still looks good...
Hey San.

Yes I think a 30m cross is probably best, then re-access

Its all starting to make sense this Ichi trading, although I still need help searching through the pairs, which of course this thread helps with. Give me 6 months and I will of mastered it
  • #4,102
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:33am Sep 28, 2009 7:33am
Quoting ab1

Fingers crossed it bounces off the Kijun where there a big flat spot on the cloud ! ...As Im writing this it just flown up and taken me out.....what the...............!!??

ab1
Have to be careful during the first hour of new york, stocks opened strong today which means risk appetite. I was in short too but then got out when I saw the s&p heading up and the gu turning around...
  • #4,103
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:36am Sep 28, 2009 7:36am
Hi again iskander..... sorry I dont get you. I have been looking in this thread but its not here... can you please direct me....

sorry new here... Tq.
  • #4,104
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:37am Sep 28, 2009 7:37am
Quoting gambit1977
Hi again iskander..... sorry I dont get you. I have been looking in this thread but its not here... can you please direct me....

sorry new here... Tq.
Reports Archive:http://www.4shared.com/dir/19807073/...5/sharing.html

Look under resources.
  • #4,105
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:46am Sep 28, 2009 7:46am
Quoting SanMiguel
Which pairs? Stick some charts up... (or a link to previous posts with charts?).
It's not confirmation on all timeframes so much as looking for the risk of retraces I think. When pairs have made big moves down, they simply have to retrace at some point as traders take profits. That's not to say a 5min cross won't mean it could go lower but if it's far away from the Ts/Ks then the likelihood of a retrace is

Ok Picture of trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd m5.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #4,106
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:51am Sep 28, 2009 7:51am
USD/JPY (SHORT) ON H1
1)under the cloud
2)Chikou Span is under the price curve
3)waiting TS and KS crosses

AUD/USD (lONG) ON H1
1)waiting the price above the cloud
2)waiting Chikou Span above the price curve
3)TS and KS crosses

ANY COMMENTS?
  • #4,107
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:59am Sep 28, 2009 7:59am
Quoting happyhappy
Have to be careful during the first hour of new york, stocks opened strong today which means risk appetite. I was in short too but then got out when I saw the s&p heading up and the gu turning around...

Hows it going dude ! .....at least someone else read the same signal...so that makes me feel a little better.

But this whole thing is doing my head in............arrrggg !!

So the signals are what "Lucky Dip" ? ...I mean you might as well just toss a coin and take a chance on long or short ?

What it comes down to is how much experience you have....because everytime you take 1 step forwards its 2 steps back !... Where in the Ichimokuwiki does it mention...... dont trade the first hour of the NY open !!??,....I thought we were just looking for a series of signals from Ichi ?

Maybe one of you experienced guys may be kind enough to make a list of Do's & Donts before we enter a trade, after recieving a perfect entry......a check list if you like........please !!

ab1
  • #4,108
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:01am Sep 28, 2009 8:01am
Guys, this is a monthly chart of the euro, see where we are right now?!
Attached Image
  • #4,109
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:03am Sep 28, 2009 8:03am
Quoting ab1
Ok Picture of trade

Attachment
Hi ab1

that damn signal kick my a s s too and step me out with -50 pips!!!
  • #4,110
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:08am Sep 28, 2009 8:08am
Quoting ab1
Maybe one of you experienced guys may be kind enough to make a list of Do's & Donts before we enter a trade, after recieving a perfect entry......a check list if you like........please !!

ab1
Well i just got burned today too so don't think you're the only own lol At least you only take 2 steps back. I take one forward and trip on the treadmill and get taken away lol

As far as a Do's & Don'ts list, I think Vic and other warriors are in the process of creating a doc that will help us out. Boy i hope it helps us out lol
  • #4,111
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:18am Sep 28, 2009 8:18am
Quoting ab1
Hows it going dude ! .....at least someone else read the same signal...so that makes me feel a little better.

But this whole thing is doing my head in............arrrggg !!

So the signals are what "Lucky Dip" ? ...I mean you might as well just toss a coin and take a chance on long or short ?

What it comes down to is how much experience you have....because everytime you take 1 step forwards its 2 steps back !... Where in the Ichimokuwiki does it mention...... dont trade the first hour of the NY open !!??,....I thought we were...
I know how it feels to think you're doing everything right and it goes against you... This will happen though, its trading. I am far from an expert on this stuff but there are some tendencies in the market, 1 of them is that the stock market can mess up our trades, another is that often there will be a reversal an hour into ny or london. Also, we need to watch out when the market is sleepy (low volatility).

That's a great idea about the checklists, maybe 4xaddict and other more experienced traders would be able to share some of their experience for this.
  • #4,112
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:24am Sep 28, 2009 8:24am
I guess I wasn't the only one who got taken out on that GBPUSD signal. I need to pay more attention to round numbers. I think 1.5800 was part of the reason it did not work out.
  • #4,113
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:28am Sep 28, 2009 8:28am
Thanks SanMiguel!
  • #4,114
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:37am Sep 28, 2009 8:37am
Quoting happyhappy
I know how it feels to think you're doing everything right and it goes against you... This will happen though, its trading. I am far from an expert on this stuff but there are some tendencies in the market, 1 of them is that the stock market can mess up our trades, another is that often there will be a reversal an hour into ny or london. Also, we need to watch out when the market is sleepy (low volatility).

That's a great idea about the checklists, maybe 4xaddict and other more experienced traders would be able to share some of their experience...
Ok Just got back 30 pips on the AUDUSD....so the score today is

Pips up 85
Pips Down 80 (including 50 pip butt whooping from GBPUSD)

All that hard work for 5 pips.....I'll see if I can get my paper round job back....it paid better ......lol

But seriously guys...............HHHHHHEEEEELLLLLPPPPPP !!

ab1
  • #4,115
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:38am Sep 28, 2009 8:38am
Please look at all the Time Frames and see if you can see why price went up.

I see a perfect entry at the 5m cross short in ab1's chart. Of course Vic teaches we have to look at all the timeframes before entry and the more that show a perfect signal the better.

The 1h, 4h and possible daily chart just need to be below the kumo and they are.

There's a risk of retrace that we have to use our Money management skills to protect ourselves when it happens. The 1h is retracing to the ks which is located at the 4h ts; this retrace is a normal possibility we plan for; and is even a higher possibility given the nice 500 pip downtrend last week.

Some will call todays upmove a head fake...others a retrace...and others a uptrend beginning. I have been sucked into believe all of them at different times. Its just part of trading that Ichi or any method can't be relied on 100%.

We are going to lose some trades. I lost on this one too. I still believe its going down but no one knows.

If I'd taken the daily trade signal I'd be locked in with 300 pips opportunity paid so far. But I didn't. I can't afford a 600 pip stoploss to top of day kumo. Therefore I take most 1h time frame and lower signals and win most of them but take 25% or less losses like this one.

Its part of trading...what me worry?

Steve
  • #4,116
  • Edited 9:09am Sep 28, 2009 8:43am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting ab1
Ok Picture of trade

Attachment
GBPUSD
When you took the 5min trade, was the 15min price in the cloud and 15min chikou above the price span?
Looks like it on my charts but it's close...was it 15:30ish?

Anyway my take on it is that when I'm trading the shorter timeframes, I look to the 30min and 1hr charts to see what price has been doing and where to place my stop loss. If you look to the 30min chart, you will see the intraday resistance zones also identified by the chikou span bouncing.
In the first instance, I would have identified this area + a buffer to place my stop.

http://www.sidekicker.net/Ichi/GBPUSD_20090928_1.jpg

I would then look to the H1 chart and see that price had been regularly bouncing off the 1hr Ks and this would be my next identified stop loss area. As this showed the strongest trend so far, I would have decided to place my SL at whatever looked more logical - in this case I think the 30min S/R zone is slightly higher so I would probably take that (around 1.5925-1.5930 + buffer).
I look to the higher timeframe charts simply because of all the noise on the lower timeframes and whilst they give good entry signals, the stops and S/R zones are better identified by the higher timeframes - * this is my personal choice * (interestingly, it works out to roughly taking the 30min kumo as the stop + buffer in this case).

Again, these are my thoughts, I'd be interested in some advice from the Warriors as well. If you are scalping on the lower timeframes and stops on the other side of the cloud then you will have losses, it just happens. Most traders look to a 70:30 win:loss ratio - if you can get better than that then go for it
However, because of the 15min chart, it was a close decision for me.

I'm still waiting for a 30min cross if the 30min kumo holds and you could easily get your pips back. This happens on the shorter timeframes but the smaller stop loss allocation actually allows for more profit.
  • #4,117
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:52am Sep 28, 2009 8:52am
Quoting SanMiguel
Which pairs? Stick some charts up... (or a link to previous posts with charts?).
It's not confirmation on all timeframes so much as looking for the risk of retraces I think. When pairs have made big moves down, they simply have to retrace at some point as traders take profits. That's not to say a 5min cross won't mean it could go lower but if it's far away from the Ts/Ks then the likelihood of a retrace is higher.
I believe the high probability/success trades are nearer the kumo or Ks simply because of the S/R area and the fact you can have a smaller...
Oh by the way SanMiguel appreciate your advice above...I shall print this and take note !

Do you have any measurement you use as a guide for the distance between price and the TS/KS that you consider that if you exceed it you wont enter ?

ab1
  • #4,118
  • Sep 28, 2009 9:03am Sep 28, 2009 9:03am
Quoting ab1
Oh by the way SanMiguel appreciate your advice above...I shall print this and take note !

Do you have any measurement you use as a guide for the distance between price and the TS/KS that you consider that if you exceed it you wont enter ?

ab1
Not really, I'm just looking for a R:R of at least 1:1 preferably more but since we let Ichi tell us where to exit by trailing the Ks I'm only looking for whether a possible retrace will occur or not.

That GU trade looks to be getting pretty close to even a 1hr stop out but is holding so far. If it can stay below that intraday resistance then I think a short will look good. The chikou span resistance was at 1.5930.

Have a read of Bull's posts in the past few pages - that was some great stuff that made a light go on in my head
  • #4,119
  • Sep 28, 2009 9:10am Sep 28, 2009 9:10am
Quoting Denarii
I guess I wasn't the only one who got taken out on that GBPUSD signal. I need to pay more attention to round numbers. I think 1.5800 was part of the reason it did not work out.
My first rule is to never trade the GU without looking at the direction for Gold and Oil. I would advise only longs on the GY and GU for the comming week.
  • #4,120
  • Sep 28, 2009 9:13am Sep 28, 2009 9:13am
Quoting ab1
Oh by the way SanMiguel appreciate your advice above...I shall print this and take note !

Do you have any measurement you use as a guide for the distance between price and the TS/KS that you consider that if you exceed it you wont enter ?

ab1
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