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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,461
  • Sep 25, 2009 7:28am Sep 25, 2009 7:28am
Quoting dawsonsg
Hi Limstylz,

I believe Jacko treats the 300 bars as a pretty good guide to start from. If you go further back the trend lines are considered to be stronger.

That is my take on it anyway. If anyone has a different opinion please let me know.

Steve
Hi Steve,

I have been through Wayne's blogs to see if I can find this. Whilst he mentions about the volatility of Fibre and moving down to the H4 from D1, I can't find anything that talks about taking more bars into account.

I presume that if more bars are taken into consideration, then a higher time frame should be considered.

Any comments on this?
  • #9,462
  • Sep 25, 2009 7:40am Sep 25, 2009 7:40am
Quoting Limstylz
Hi Steve,

I have been through Wayne's blogs to see if I can find this. Whilst he mentions about the volatility of Fibre and moving down to the H4 from D1, I can't find anything that talks about taking more bars into account.

I presume that if more bars are taken into consideration, then a higher time frame should be considered.

Any comments on this?
I agree higher time frame rather than more bars. Jacko quote "The longer the time, the stronger the line"
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,463
  • Sep 25, 2009 7:48am Sep 25, 2009 7:48am
After speed reading his blogs again about the slope of the trendlines, moving to a higher TF to take more time into consideration also supports this and is in keeping with both the slope of the trendlines and the 300 bar rule.

I may be flogging a dead horse with this, but comments are welcome. As Wayne is away this week, he is not available for comment himself.
  • #9,464
  • Sep 25, 2009 7:58am Sep 25, 2009 7:58am
Quoting narberth
I agree higher time frame rather than more bars. Jacko quote "The longer the time, the stronger the line"
Whilst higher tf's do hold sway over the lower ones, it would also depend on how often the trendline (we make the assumption the the trendline is acting as SR) has been tested. The more tests, the more likely that the trendline will be broken (I am talking market mechanics here).

Further, a comment on one of his blogs supports this hypothesis. I think he says no more than 4 tests...
  • #9,465
  • Sep 25, 2009 9:31am Sep 25, 2009 9:31am
did we just see a break down and the support turned back to resistance ? the price is testing it @ 1.4700
  • #9,466
  • Sep 25, 2009 1:05pm Sep 25, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting Limstylz
Thanks for your reply.

The way to check the amount of bars is to select the 'crosshair' tool and drag from the bar previous to the current bar (current bar has not closed yet, so should not be used for consideration), back to the left. The first number is the amount of bars, the second is deviation in pips up or down from your current position and the last is the price.

You can customise your screen bar display using the zoom and the chart shift.

Wow.Amazing, that was very helpful Limstylz(pardon me for my noobness in charting software)LOL

Thanks alot.
  • #9,467
  • Sep 25, 2009 11:18pm Sep 25, 2009 11:18pm
Quoting narberth
This is my current "Jacko" chart comments welcomed. The Fib interestingly enough falls bang on the August resistance at 1.4450
OK, this is my first post.

QUESTION #1
I'm going to ask for someone to verify if this is the correct way to draw the trendlines on the 4hr, 300 candle chart (the person i've quoted, posted picture on the previous page of the thread). i just want to know that I'm looking at the same information as everyone else in this thread.

Basically, we're putting the trend lines on the lows, and the highs which give off the most shallow slope (within the 300 candle, 4hr chart)? The trend has gotten much steeper and the support line could be much, much higher than displayed in this picture.

QUESTION #2
I've also noticed that jacko has seemingly implemented a few new elements to his strategy: including trading during sideways markets, and setting profit targets???

QUESTION #3
Also, the trailing stop loss has now increased from 50 pips to 100 pips?

I'm assuming you want a trailing stop on your trades which have a target profit price. Or is just a hard 100-pip S/L is all you need when you have a target on your trade?

QUESTION #4
In a post in the middle of this thread, it was stated that the 50% fibo line is used for exits only, and not entering trades. Can someone verify this? It seems like it would serve a good purpose for entry points too (ie, enter your buy on a 50% retrace during an uptrend), but after reading that the 50% line is for exits only, I was scratching my head....



I'm having a hard time seeing how the current discussion in this thread relates to the strategy which was laid out on the first page, in the first posts made by jacko. I apologize if I'm just this clueless, but are you guys planning on the current uptrend to retrace to the 50% fibo line based on the current 300 candle chart??? You might be sitting on your hands for quite some time from the looks of it... Although one thing I have gathered from reading in this thread is that patience is one of jacko's best qualities . Thanks in advance for all your help!
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #9,468
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:53am Sep 26, 2009 2:53am
Quoting Limstylz
Whilst higher tf's do hold sway over the lower ones, it would also depend on how often the trendline (we make the assumption the the trendline is acting as SR) has been tested. The more tests, the more likely that the trendline will be broken (I am talking market mechanics here).

Further, a comment on one of his blogs supports this hypothesis. I think he says no more than 4 tests...
No more than 4 tests...does this include the 4 tests needed to form the trend-line?
  • #9,469
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:54am Sep 26, 2009 2:54am
Sorry I meant 3 tests needed to confirm the TL but I can't seem to edit my post...
  • #9,470
  • Sep 27, 2009 5:17am Sep 27, 2009 5:17am
jacko,

I am not quite sure I understand why it is at all necessary to time the market with 50% fibs, TLs, etc. if you are trading with the weekly trend.
Once you have the AH strategy in place, it would seem to me that you could place a trade anywhere and in the long run it would not matter (assuming you don't overleverage). Does this make any sense?

Thanks,
Kyle C.
  • #9,471
  • Sep 27, 2009 2:13pm Sep 27, 2009 2:13pm
I've looked at the charts a little more and I think the 1.4517 is the significant retrace that we should be looking at during this time (AKA, good entrance spot to go long).

The first chart I've attached is the 300 candle 4hr chart

The second chart is also a 4hr chart, but I have zoomed out to show the significance of the uptrend in which I have placed the Fibonacci retrace on.

Please give input! (negative, and positive - THANKS)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euruusd300.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euruusd4hrlonger.gif Size: 19 KB
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #9,472
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:11pm Sep 27, 2009 4:11pm
Jacko has been trading H4 since the beginning of 2009....and before that he traded the daily - so I really can't see where weekly would have cropped up.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,473
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:30pm Sep 27, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
OK, this is my first post.

QUESTION #1
I'm going to ask for someone to verify if this is the correct way to draw the trendlines on the 4hr, 300 candle chart (the person i've quoted, posted picture on the previous page of the thread)....
I personally would start the lower TL on Aug 17 and connect it to the low of Sept 5th to give me a clearer channel - upper TL is same as mine.

Quoting Dan Gilbert
QUESTION #2
I've also noticed that jacko has seemingly implemented a few new elements to his strategy: including trading during sideways markets, and setting profit targets???
Yes he has traded the range (or channel) as it were but usually tries to do so in the direction of what he feels is the major trend. Correct, lately he has also started identifying possible target areas where he then re evaluates the trade and decides to either get out or let the trade play itself out a little longer.

Quoting Dan Gilbert
#3
Also, the trailing stop loss has now increased from 50 pips to 100 pips?
Yes however on his last few positions the 100 pip SL was hard - not trailing.

Quoting Dan Gilbert
assuming you want a trailing stop on your trades which have a target profit price. Or is just a hard 100-pip S/L is all you need when you have a target on your trade?
Having a TSL foregoes the necessity of having a target - the idea being if you manage to get on the right side of a nice long run price could move thousands of pips in your favour. It'sd a matter of current market conditions and where ones' confort zone lies.

Quoting Dan Gilbert
#4
In a post in the middle of this thread, it was stated that the 50% fibo line is used for exits only, and not entering trades. Can someone verify this? It seems like it would serve a good purpose for entry points too (ie, enter your buy on a 50% retrace during an uptrend), but after reading that the 50% line is for exits only, I was scratching my head....
Wayne generally prefers the TL's for the entries as he believes they are stronger and target the .50 fibs for the exits. The rest is up to personal choice.

Quoting Dan Gilbert
having a hard time seeing how the current discussion in this thread relates to the strategy which was laid out on the first page, in the first posts made by jacko. I apologize if I'm just this clueless, but are you guys planning on the current uptrend to retrace to the 50% fibo line based on the current 300 candle chart???...
Being able to adapt to changing market condition is a key factor in long term success - as is patience. Regarding the rest - again - it's up to personal choice and what each individual sees on their charts.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,474
  • Edited 7:40pm Sep 27, 2009 4:53pm | Edited 7:40pm
Quote
I personally would start the lower TL on Aug 17 and connect it to the low of Sept 5th to give me a clearer channel - upper TL is same as mine.

Ok, I have done this^^ now too...

Quote
Wayne generally prefers the TL's for the entries as he believes they are stronger and target the .50 fibs for the exits. The rest is up to personal choice.
Following this, If we are in an uptrend (as we are now), after a slight dip down to the lower trendline, we go long to the 50% retrace of the previous dip? Is this just a very safe profit-taking method in an uncertain market? Although I see many many pips can be made in a 50% retrace, too!

Quote
Being able to adapt to changing market condition is a key factor in long term success - as is patience. Regarding the rest - again - it's up to personal choice and what each individual sees on their charts.
Thanks for answering all of my questions. As you could probably tell, I'm very very new to this and have so much to learn. I appreciate your thorough response.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #9,475
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:57pm Sep 27, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting coscorp
Jacko has been trading H4 since the beginning of 2009....and before that he traded the daily - so I really can't see where weekly would have cropped up.

Would he be trading against the weekly ever?
  • #9,476
  • Sep 28, 2009 12:28am Sep 28, 2009 12:28am
Quoting KyleColbert
Would he be trading against the weekly ever?
Weekly does not provide enough granularity to take advantage of the beginning of any clear moves. Euro still has plenty of volatility, so the probability of catching the beginning of a move still lies on H4.
  • #9,477
  • Sep 28, 2009 4:48am Sep 28, 2009 4:48am
Hi Kyle

Patterns and systems that are successfully traded normally hold better the longer the timeframe. For example if you look at the daily or weekly the patterns are more uniform than if you look at the 15 or 5 min. So you may ask why not trade the hgher time frame where the probabilities are higher??

On the 4H timeframe we are averaging 5 trades per month. If we have 3 losses in a row it's 300 pips and we can recover this fairly quickly. If you trade longer timeframes your stops will be bigger and your trades fewer.

Coumpounding is also one of the brilliant features of trading and fewer trades means slower compounding.

If you are not sure of this pick a really simple mechanical system like an 80 / 40 ema crossover system and apply it to your weekly eurusd chart. In the last 10 years it would have generated about 8 trades for about 9500 pips with about a 500 pip stop.. not bad if you have confidence in the system. Unfortunately confidence comes with a good % of wins..

Now apply it to the daily and 4H and hopefully you'll see my point... then go the other way and you'll see the pattern crumbles in the noise of the lower timeframes.

I hope this is insightful...

Quoting KyleColbert
Would he be trading against the weekly ever?
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,478
  • Sep 29, 2009 12:03pm Sep 29, 2009 12:03pm
1.4520-1.4550 range looked like a good place to go long today... anyone else jump in?
  • #9,479
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:08pm Sep 29, 2009 1:08pm
hmm trade it up to the resistance?


It sounds like an adventurous trade
  • #9,480
  • Sep 29, 2009 3:26pm Sep 29, 2009 3:26pm
well, my reasoning would be (on a 4 hr chart):

1. it's testing a longer term trendline (connect june 3 high and aug 3 high and you will see that it's been resistance as well as support)

2. the 50% fib from 9/1 low to 9/23 high is around 1.4510

3. Of course, if you connect 9/17 high and 9/21 high you can see that the downtrend is acting as support... which is not a good news because the trendline is clearing going down

4. if you connect 9/23 high and 9/27 high, you can see another downtrend

so 3 and 4 have been acting as a downward "range" but 1 and 2 are longer term so i figured it would be a good place for the price to turn around
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