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AUD/USD

  • #4,561
  • Sep 27, 2009 8:56pm Sep 27, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting ben10
how you got that number thats exactly my limit long order! you hit me to the pip!
87.10 is the 21 Jan low
  • #4,562
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:04pm Sep 27, 2009 9:04pm
Quoting drfx
ben10 what are your thoughts on audusd and its movement? you're shorting aud. where are your TP levels and which levels are you comfortable at shorting? personally, i would rather long aud at current levels. just want to understand where you're coming from. let me know your thoughts. thanks buddy.
this move indicate seeler jump in in a rush manner or buyers perhaps took their profit, Technically speaking im still short and profit alredy locked(stops), if the buyers back she must pass the dog guard at 0.8640 and 0.8680 and should bouncing back down towards 0.8515
  • #4,563
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:13pm Sep 27, 2009 9:13pm
The AUD/JPY has certainly helped the Aussie push lower this morning. The AUD 4hr has broken trendline support, and whilst the 8 hr is a while from closing, the signs are promising. I expect we will see more weakness in the Aussie with end on month and end of quarter position squaring likely over the next few days. My bias remains Short.
Attached Images
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #4,564
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:13pm Sep 27, 2009 9:13pm
Hi Drfx, she penetrated 0.8593 but not through yet, me thinking the sellers testing the water down to see if the buyers still out there holding posistions, it will range between 0.8681 - 0.8593 before continue her sail south to 0.8515 and it will bounce from there if not down further
  • #4,565
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:19pm Sep 27, 2009 9:19pm
agreed. aud seems range bound for the moment. bears and bulls out in the mkt. would like to short aud at 8620 and long at 8560.


Quoting ben10
Hi Drfx, she penetrated 0.8593 but not through yet, me thinking the sellers testing the water down to see if the buyers still out there holding posistions, it will range between 0.8681 - 0.8593 before continue her sail south to 0.8515 and it will bounce from there if not down further
  • #4,566
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:22pm Sep 27, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting Kristo
The AUD/JPY has certainly helped the Aussie push lower this morning. The AUD 4hr has broken trendline support, and whilst the 8 hr is a while from closing, the signs are promising. I expect we will see more weakness in the Aussie with end on month and end of quarter position squaring likely over the next few days. My bias remains Short.
thank for posting chart Kristo, i see more clearer now from your pivot point break down
  • #4,567
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:26pm Sep 27, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting drfx
agreed. aud seems range bound for the moment. bears and bulls out in the mkt. would like to short aud at 8620 and long at 8560.
remember lot of buyers ready to go long this week as this is the opportunity for longterm player to deploy "the carry trade stratetegy" on aud/yen.

me.. just play shorter time frame
  • #4,568
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:41pm Sep 27, 2009 9:41pm
Quoting ben10
remember lot of buyers ready to go long this week as this is the opportunity for longterm player to deploy "the carry trade stratetegy" on aud/yen.

me.. just play shorter time frame
That is my strategy for the AUD/JPY over the longer term, if price comes down far enough. I will start buying around high 75's and continue down to low 70's if need be.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #4,569
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:44pm Sep 27, 2009 9:44pm
Quoting fammira
87.10 is the 21 Jan low
i'll pick her at 87.67 if she allowed me! got to go to buy some lunch , i'll be right back
  • #4,570
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:56pm Sep 27, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting ben10
i'll pick her at 87.67 if she allowed me! got to go to buy some lunch , i'll be right back
I also would like to but I think I was lucky to pick it at 88,70

we hardly will see sub 89 again unless japanese insist saying a strong yen is normal move

and then, when you see two stop hunts in a row like the ones we saw on Friday and this morning after two month slow and continous fall, the reversal is probably very close, would not be surprised to see 91 - 92 in one or two weeks

I would not dare being long the yen at this point
  • #4,571
  • Sep 27, 2009 9:59pm Sep 27, 2009 9:59pm
Quoting fammira
I don't think so, extended stop hunt mean at creating panic on the market and buy low / sell high

I already took a 70 pips profit and ready to buy again below 89 and down to 88

there's an important low at 87,10 but I don't think we'll see it
My compliment ,Good trade
Well, it seems to me on weekly USDJPY the downtrend channel is broken to the down side, it means it sould accelerate lower, may be a retest of 89.9-90 but eventually lower,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy1.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #4,572
  • Sep 27, 2009 10:05pm Sep 27, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
My compliment ,Good trade
Well, it seems to me on weekly USDJPY the downtrend channel is broken to the down side, it means it sould accelerate lower, may be a retest of 89.9-90 but eventually lower,
technically you could be right, but logically I guess market could be really scared to be short USDJPY at these levels, a formal intervention of BoJ is hard to exclude
  • #4,573
  • Sep 27, 2009 10:11pm Sep 27, 2009 10:11pm
Quoting fammira
technically you could be right, but logically I guess market could be really scared to be short USDJPY at these levels, a formal intervention of BoJ is hard to exclude
that's right, I guess JPY is getting stronger due to sell off the crosses not just buying agianst the USD
I just draw the Fib fan, it seems nice how it fits, but I dont know extactly if it's bouns from here to the 50% level agian or breaks it lower, we will see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy2.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #4,574
  • Sep 27, 2009 10:43pm Sep 27, 2009 10:43pm
Quoting shahab8b
that's right, I guess JPY is getting stronger due to sell off the crosses not just buying agianst the USD
I just draw the Fib fan, it seems nice how it fits, but I dont know extactly if it's bouns from here to the 50% level agian or breaks it lower, we will see
yeah, we have to see

long again from 83,13 and stop at entry

hope it will not be filled cause this pair goes up more in my opinion...
  • #4,575
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:05pm Sep 27, 2009 11:05pm
so many resistance to break for the yen

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...sm_845a699.png
  • #4,576
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:25pm Sep 27, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting Kristo
That is my strategy for the AUD/JPY over the longer term, if price comes down far enough. I will start buying around high 75's and continue down to low 70's if need be.
good on you mate! stay with the plan and here what i see from the sh0ter time frame :

http://img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/2...vm_e67c052.png
  • #4,577
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:26pm Sep 27, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting ben10
so many resistance to break for the yen

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...sm_845a699.png
+50 I took profit again

but I want to buy the dips again
  • #4,578
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:31pm Sep 27, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting fammira
+50 I took profit again

but I want to buy the dips again
clever chaps , you play fast finger now huh!
  • #4,579
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:39pm Sep 27, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
that's right, I guess JPY is getting stronger due to sell off the crosses not just buying agianst the USD
I just draw the Fib fan, it seems nice how it fits, but I dont know extactly if it's bouns from here to the 50% level agian or breaks it lower, we will see

agree with you all, usdjpy to be bonce to 50% pips (91.00/91.50 area)
enclosure the chart of my analsyze of this pair

LFXJPY - bounce back to 51.407/51.672area
USDLFX - going up to 1.7713/1.7661 area

USDJPY (LFXJPY*USDLFX) - To be at the 91.05/91.52 Area
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lfxjpy1.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfx1.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy1.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #4,580
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:40pm Sep 27, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting ben10
good on you mate! stay with the plan and here what i see from the sh0ter time frame :

http://img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/2...vm_e67c052.png
seem like she gonna break ok see you all tonite ! ciao!
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