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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #44,681
  • Sep 27, 2009 10:46am Sep 27, 2009 10:46am
Quoting stoiter
hey guys!
im slowly working my way through from page 1.. im a little over 10% .. hopefully one day ill catch up.

i just got back from overseas to find you all added a couple hundred pages

mbqb11- i find it amazing you were involved in the early days and your still here selflessly helping people, even though youve probably answered the same questions hundreds of times.
My suggestion? Don't go back overseas, you might come back to another 1k pages

Welcome
  • #44,682
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:00am Sep 27, 2009 11:00am
Quoting lovejoy80
Hi, what do people think about this pin (I know it is a day old) but has not been broken yet in my view.

If I were to play this I would enter on abreak above 1.2119 PPZ area...with first target the cluster of bar low and round number PPZ - 1.2200. I would put initial stop at the first eye low and round number of 1.2000.

If I were to play this trade, the new bar open would be 10pm tonight GMT and thus the trade could reach first PPZ area for example when I am asleep. How do others manage trades where the daily bar closes and thus analysis and entry...

Be careful here lovejoy. That pin on your feed was caused by a bad spike data. Price never made it that low. If you place your chart on the hourly you can see the bad spike.


Mike
  • #44,683
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:07am Sep 27, 2009 11:07am
Quoting supremeChaos
Please indulge me... (non-trading related)

Please visit this thread
Help needed.
Thank you!
Prayers are with everyone over there I will donate as well. Stay safe

Mike
  • #44,684
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:18am Sep 27, 2009 11:18am
Quoting supremeChaos
Please indulge me... (non-trading related)

Please visit this thread
Help needed.
Thank you!
Hey SC,

I saw the pics and videos...that's horrible...
Be safe bro.

I still don't have a bank account or credit card...any chance they accept donations via PayPal or AlertPay?

Ben
  • #44,685
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:51am Sep 27, 2009 11:51am
Well,

A new week is about to begin (as far as trading is concerned), and I just wanted to give everyone a warm good luck.

I am not seeing any A+ trades as far as the dailies go, but there are a few potential trades out there. The CAD pairs are showing good potential as well as looking for a good continuation entry on G/U for me. I have seen a lot of people talking about the E/U weekly pin, and I am not in love with it, however, I will be following the progress of the E/U over the course of this next week.

I am also a huge fan of gap trades. To me they are just as statistically significant as any other bar chart formation. Using appropriate stops and MM, it is pretty easy to pick up a 0.5% profit off these things. I will note that my R:R for gap trades is way off, and without explanation would seem as if I am abandoning MM. I generally risk 1% on a gap trade and attempt to pull 0.5%. I know this is negative R:R, however I have back tested gaps on all pairs that IBFX offers and have found that they close approximately 86% of the time. As I get better than 3 right for every 1 wrong, the R:R ends up paying positive in the long run.

Que
Que
  • #44,686
  • Sep 27, 2009 1:03pm Sep 27, 2009 1:03pm
few charts i'll be watching for sure. beggining of this week (or this week) should give us some answers (or solid clues) about the potential for a new trend of dollar strength in a long term. the important part is to keep myself from falling in love with my bias. i often miss a lot of great moves just because i am looking only in one direction. open mind and objective judgement of pa is what i need to work on...
ps. of course the trend is your friend and catching the tops might be expensive...
ps. i want to thank this fellow who put together the post of many valuable traders together and made it so much easier to study. unfortunattely i am not sure who did it but hopefully YOU know who you are so.. thanks mate
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  • #44,687
  • Sep 27, 2009 3:16pm Sep 27, 2009 3:16pm
Gapped nicely, and made 0.5%

Que
Que
  • #44,688
  • Sep 27, 2009 3:40pm Sep 27, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting Que
Gapped nicely, and made 0.5%

Que
LOL - great!! I've wanted to trade gaps, but never do. I am too tired Sunday afternoons! Gaps can be pretty lucrative.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44,689
  • Sep 27, 2009 3:50pm Sep 27, 2009 3:50pm
Well this one is especially lucrative at the moment (Never know how it ends heh).

I got in on a moving train, aimed for 15 pips (distance for gap to close when I initiated), 30 pip stop 1% risk as per norm. Was only looking for 0.5%. My stop is at the gap right now (Locked in my 0.5%), and every 30 pips after that is netting me 1%.

This is one of those once in a very long time trades. My hands are trembling. I don't know if I should take the money and run 2.5% as of writing this, or let it ride. With such a large position (compairitivly to my standard daily trade), I don't know what to do... In less than 1 hour, I have made my monthly quota.

Que

Quoting StoragePro
LOL - great!! I've wanted to trade gaps, but never do. I am too tired Sunday afternoons! Gaps can be pretty lucrative.
Que
  • #44,690
  • Sep 27, 2009 3:52pm Sep 27, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting mbqb11
My suggestion? Don't go back overseas, you might come back to another 1k pages

Welcome

haha unfortunatly i will be off again shortly. ill just have to power through.
  • #44,691
  • Sep 27, 2009 3:52pm Sep 27, 2009 3:52pm
DAMN, I am seriously sweating here...

I made my goal. I am going to let it ride. I have to walk away for a while. I am to nervous watching this train.

Que
Que
  • #44,692
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:20pm Sep 27, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting Que
DAMN, I am seriously sweating here...

I made my goal. I am going to let it ride. I have to walk away for a while. I am to nervous watching this train.

Que
Easy big guy .... it is only money.

Just scale the chart out and manage the position now.... PPZ's, round numbers... You know the drill.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44,693
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:25pm Sep 27, 2009 4:25pm
Agreed. Needed a min, not use to that pace of profit haha. I am good now. Watching H1, looks like retrace coming, Stop is in good position, H4 and D1 looks good for short, gonna let it do its thing.

Que

Quoting StoragePro
Easy big guy .... it is only money.

Just scale the chart out and manage the position now.... PPZ's, round numbers... You know the drill.
Que
  • #44,694
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:34pm Sep 27, 2009 4:34pm
WTF was going with the AUDJPY in the last hour?!

Anyone took the 5min pullback pin bar from last week?

I'm going to take full profit around 76.45 if my 2 bar stop won't get hit before.

I have a feeling that this is going to be the best week ever
  • #44,695
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:40pm Sep 27, 2009 4:40pm
Awesome Benji

Quoting benji533
WTF was going with the AUDJPY in the last hour?!

Anyone took the 5min pullback pin bar from last week?

I'm going to take full profit around 76.45 if my 2 bar stop won't get hit before.

I have a feeling that this is going to be the best week ever
Que
  • #44,696
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:51pm Sep 27, 2009 4:51pm
Quoting Que
Awesome Benji
Thanks bro, My trailing stop got hit already

By the way, I am curious about trading gaps. I have heard this phrase before from Mike, but didn't really understand (and didn't want to bother the man...he works too much )
Are the gaps likely to close most of the time? meaning that if we are now below a gap, price is likely to go up..or...?
Sorry for the dumb question.

Thanks,

Ben
  • #44,697
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:55pm Sep 27, 2009 4:55pm
Areas of confluence to look for PA on the Gbp/Jpy Daily.
Should be an interesting week.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #44,698
  • Sep 27, 2009 5:00pm Sep 27, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting benji533
By the way, I am curious about trading gaps.
+1
There is no dumb questions, now this answer will help at least two people and I was not likely to ask it myself
  • #44,699
  • Sep 27, 2009 5:02pm Sep 27, 2009 5:02pm
Benji,

Yes, I ran a test on all pairs on the daily chart as far back as IBFX had data. The following came back.

By the close of the Monday bar, ~86% of the time, the Sunday Gap was closed. Please note this is back testing data, and can only be used for statistical and historical significance. What I mean is, there is no guarantee that this historical trend will continue.

However, I trade the Sunday Gap every week on GU and GJ, I ended up picking those pairs as they tend to have the largest gaps (Although there is not a gap every week). I would have to say, I am definitely hitting better than 75%, though I do not think it is quite 86%.

What this means to me though. I can have double the stop of my target. This gives me a horrible R:R, but it has netted me a positive gain over time due to the high % chance the gap closes. Now, the problem with this statistic would be seen on the UJ right now. There is a gap. However, price went the opposite direction by a LOT. This is not to say the gap will not close by tomorrow. However, even if it closes, If I were trading it, I would have been stopped out. I believe this type of reaction is why I am not seeing 86%, but closer to 75%. Even when it closes, it sometimes hits my stop. I find gap trades to be lucrative, but a lot of people do not trade them.

Que
Que
  • #44,700
  • Sep 27, 2009 5:03pm Sep 27, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting benji533
WTF was going with the AUDJPY in the last hour?!
New homes and durables were disappointing, so people are worried that perhaps they have been a bit too optimistic and got carried away with the whole 'everything is fixed now!' thing...risk appetite is headed back down, and so people want out of the carry trade (which has a rubbish differential at the moment to begin with)... so they dump the aussie as soon as they could.

Everyone is pretty much waiting for Tokyo to open and then take a lead from them.

Or, to put it simply... bearish outside bar

You are completely right though, could see some big moves this week if we really do tip from 'guarded optimism' -> fear. Lookin forward to a flood of Ben charts!

Whole thing is kind of annoying, since I've been planning to take the gf skiing in Japan in the January holidays, and if this silliness keeps up, I wont be able to afford it.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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