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AUD/USD

  • #4,521
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:08pm Sep 25, 2009 3:08pm
AUD/JPY break to the downside now confirmed.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #4,522
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:10pm Sep 25, 2009 3:10pm
Gold closing lower, testing support at 980 level.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #4,523
  • Edited 3:31pm Sep 25, 2009 3:17pm | Edited 3:31pm
The day's price movement and indecision was frustrating, but not unexpected. I am not prepared to write the bears off just yet and still consider 86 to be the key level which may take several attempts to breach. AUD 4hr testing trendline support, 8hr testing trendline support and Weekly chart has provided the Doji close. My bias remains short with first target 85.55.
Attached Images
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #4,524
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:20am Sep 26, 2009 3:20am
hi all!

the downward stop hunt we saw on Friday on USDJPY is a typical month end move, and makes me think one more the USD is starting what may be a very strong bounce from the current levels.

I am holding my shorts with stops on AUDUSD at 0,8751 and looking for open a long on USDJPY around 89 and down to the important support at 0,8870

short term targets for AUDUSD and EURUSD are still valid; 0,84-85 and 1,44-45
we should see them in the next two weeks

pound suffered in the last two weeks and could start recovering from 1.57 - 5750, reached that level EURGBP could eventually start to fall

next week we could see wild up and down moves typical of the months ends/beginning, I still expect the tone to be negative with more profit taking on the markets and on commodities.
The break of the important support at 1044 on the S&p could confirm such a scenario

good trade to you all!
  • #4,525
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:28am Sep 26, 2009 3:28am
and of course remember to try to avoid half-way trades, let pairs and crosses go up before you sell and down before your buy!
cover your potential gains with stop or adequate hedging strategies

a stop or a hedge order is often a potential future gain
  • #4,526
  • Sep 26, 2009 6:15am Sep 26, 2009 6:15am
China’s Chump Change
By Jeff Clark

You likely read that the IMF announced they will proceed with the sale of 403.3 tonnes of gold. While I’m tempted to comment on how little this will actually help the worldwide financial mess – the $14.2 billion it will raise (at $1,000 gold) represents 0.07% of the $19 trillion in total global bailouts to date – this is really a comment about China.

The logic is straightforward: China needs to diversify its massive $2 trillion in reserves (which is actually greater than $2 trillion now, and it keeps rising). A high percentage of these reserves are comprised of U.S. dollars. Chinese leaders have made it clear they are entirely uncomfortable with how the U.S. government is devaluing those dollars. Chinese officials rightfully worry their investment is being eroded – and that it could ultimately crash and burn.

The facts are clear: China is currently the world’s biggest gold producer. They are the world’s biggest buyer of gold. It is a near certainty they will pass India as the biggest buyer of gold jewelry this year.

The math is simple: If China were to buy the entire 403.3-tonne stash, $14.2 billion represents 0.71% of their total reserves. It is chump change.

The outcome is certain: China only has 1,054 tonnes of gold reserves. Adding the 403.3 tonnes would equal $51.4 billion in total gold reserves, still only 2.57% of their total reserves. It’s the equivalent of what you would spend on a nice night out on the town.

The implications are enormous: Chinese officials have already hinted they’ll buy some or all of the IMF’s gold. Either way, China will someday be rich with gold (and other commodities). Their future is becoming more secure with every ounce they buy.

The message is clear: Don’t be a chump. Use any weakness in gold to build your own wall against what’s coming next.

http://www.caseyresearch.com
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,527
  • Edited 9:51pm Sep 26, 2009 9:17pm | Edited 9:51pm
Here is what I think of,
the pattern in AUDUSD weekly chart resembels of the bearish Bat, it means the price should reverse at 2.618 projection of BC , which is .8931 ,interestingly enough , this is the same level of 76.4% fib of XA + 1.618 projection of .6238 to .8261 + the former long term support level of March 08,
looking at the current price level, it'll go up till .893 may be shy of .90 and the price reversal might happen in mid Oct if not sooner,













http://www.harmonictrader.com/batpicre.jpg

Bullish Bearish
http://www.harmonictrader.com/batbullre.jpghttp://www.harmonictrader.com/batbearre.jpg

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd21.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #4,528
  • Sep 27, 2009 1:00am Sep 27, 2009 1:00am
Quoting shahab8b
Here is what I think of,
the pattern in AUDUSD weekly chart resembels of the bearish Bat, it means the price should reverse at 2.618 projection of BC , which is .8931 ,interestingly enough , this is the same level of 76.4% fib of XA + 1.618 projection of .6238 to .8261 + the former long term support level of March 08,
looking at the current price level, it'll go up till .893 may be shy of .90 and the price reversal might happen in mid Oct if not sooner,













http://www.harmonictrader.com/batpicre.jpg[center][b][font=Tahoma][size=4][color=#008000]Bullish...
Very cool looking pattern; where'd you learn about these?
  • #4,529
  • Sep 27, 2009 1:18am Sep 27, 2009 1:18am
Quoting fammira
hi all!

the downward stop hunt we saw on Friday on USDJPY is a typical month end move, and makes me think one more the USD is starting what may be a very strong bounce from the current levels.

I am holding my shorts with stops on AUDUSD at 0,8751 and looking for open a long on USDJPY around 89 and down to the important support at 0,8870

short term targets for AUDUSD and EURUSD are still valid; 0,84-85 and 1,44-45
we should see them in the next two weeks

pound suffered in the last two weeks and could start recovering from 1.57 - 5750,...
You have good understanding of the forex game.
  • #4,530
  • Sep 27, 2009 1:48am Sep 27, 2009 1:48am
Quoting shahab8b
Here is what I think of,
the pattern in AUDUSD weekly chart resembels of the bearish Bat, it means the price should reverse at 2.618 projection of BC , which is .8931 ,interestingly enough , this is the same level of 76.4% fib of XA + 1.618 projection of .6238 to .8261 + the former long term support level of March 08,
looking at the current price level, it'll go up till .893 may be shy of .90 and the price reversal might happen in mid Oct if not sooner,

http://www.harmonictrader.com/batpicre.jpg[center][b][font=Tahoma][size=4][color=#008000]Bullish...
Hi Shahab8b
very good post shahab8b,
how about this LFXJPY chart, is that right to see the point C at 0.382 or 0.86% ??? any comment of this chart

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lfxjpy.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #4,531
  • Sep 27, 2009 8:36am Sep 27, 2009 8:36am
Quoting thadakman
Very cool looking pattern; where'd you learn about these?
Hi thadakman,
here is the link to harmonic pattern, I have an e book about it too, if are interested I can email it to you.

http://www.harmonictrader.com/bookhtfm.htm

in FX360 website, the GFT analysts make all their trade calls based on harmonic pattern, like Butterfly ,Gartley,ABCD and three drive, and there is a good section explain the patterns , here it is

http://www.fx360.com/techAnalysis/chartPatterns.aspx
  • #4,532
  • Edited 9:17am Sep 27, 2009 8:46am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting my30marahaba
Hi Shahab8b
very good post shahab8b,
how about this LFXJPY chart, is that right to see the point C at 0.382 or 0.86% ??? any comment of this chart

Thanks
Hi My30marahaba,
I dont have LFXJPY chart at my MT4 , I'm not sure about the weightened avarage of the currencies agianst JPY in this index ,
would mind telling me the percentage of USD,EUR,GBP and others in the index?

what's the level of B in your chart?
1- if AB is .382/0.618 of XA you go for a bearish Crab then C would be .382/.886 of AB and , if you go for a Crab the D would end up heigher than X!
2- if AB is .618 of XA you go for a bearish Gartley then C agian be would .382/.886 of AB , and you have an ABCD so the CD would equal AB , and lower than X for sure
3-if AB is .382/0.5 of XA , go for a bearish Bat, then C agian would be .382/.886 of AB

so whatever your chart is, it seems a drop to .382/.886 level of AB is on the card then reversal from there!

By the way, you dont need a harmonic pattern to trade that, you can just use simple Fibonacci projection/extension level, as you did on your chart
  • #4,533
  • Sep 27, 2009 11:22am Sep 27, 2009 11:22am
Here are the links to 1-Action Forex weekly report 2-Oil n Gold weekly report,

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2009092797051/

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/in...-200909268971/


I'm pretty sure most of the people here read some Action Forex report & pair analysis, the reason I posted them here I'd like to know your opinion about their reports & alaysis in last one year or two. I personally have followed them since 2 years ago, it's a pity I have not used them to trade ,it seems to me they are pretty good free analysis and most of the time correct, I welcome all comments about this topic
  • #4,534
  • Sep 27, 2009 5:38pm Sep 27, 2009 5:38pm
It's monday let the battle begin:

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...im_22b27ec.png
  • #4,535
  • Sep 27, 2009 6:07pm Sep 27, 2009 6:07pm
my long position still open so im in red big time, no more adding long if price move below 1.2000

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...6m_8549974.png
  • #4,536
  • Sep 27, 2009 6:20pm Sep 27, 2009 6:20pm
japan on the move again so eur/jpy attack is on! profit locked in

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...am_5c402f2.png

aud/jpy long and eaur/aud long can wait.
  • #4,537
  • Sep 27, 2009 6:23pm Sep 27, 2009 6:23pm
add more 130.03 average short at 130.99
  • #4,538
  • Sep 27, 2009 6:32pm Sep 27, 2009 6:32pm
add more short
  • #4,539
  • Sep 27, 2009 6:35pm Sep 27, 2009 6:35pm
may hit 129.28 it will bounce then i will prepare to add long aud/jpy
  • #4,540
  • Sep 27, 2009 6:43pm Sep 27, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi thadakman,
here is the link to harmonic pattern, I have an e book about it too, if are interested I can email it to you.

http://www.harmonictrader.com/bookhtfm.htm

in FX360 website, the GFT analysts make all their trade calls based on harmonic pattern, like Butterfly ,Gartley,ABCD and three drive, and there is a good section explain the patterns , here it is

http://www.fx360.com/techAnalysis/chartPatterns.aspx
Thanks shahab8b, I just bookmarked these pages and will study them a little later, I always like to learn new things.
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