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  • #5,761
  • Sep 26, 2009 1:59pm Sep 26, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Iran......

Now I know one should never consider the news / funnymentals etc but one thing worth keeping an eye on is the nuclear situation in Iran.
Anyone thinking of going toe to toe with Iran has to consider China and its massive oil and gas interests in the country, and i think neither Obama's government nor the shambolic Brown (UK) government have the minerals, frankly.
  • #5,762
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:03pm Sep 26, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting AstonDan
Anyone thinking of going toe to toe with Iran has to consider China and its massive oil and gas interests in the country, and i think neither Obama's government nor the shambolic Brown (UK) government have the minerals, frankly.
Very true mate, but Israel will not give two hoots. This is just the thing to end a stock rally tho and something to be aware of should you be long usd, short oil and gold. In truth the US and UK would fight a proxy-war thru Israel. Meanwhile back on the charts.......
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,763
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:05pm Sep 26, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting AstonDan
Anyone thinking of going toe to toe with Iran has to consider China and its massive oil and gas interests in the country, and i think neither Obama's government nor the shambolic Brown (UK) government have the minerals, frankly.
Or the balls! Not forgetting of course that China owns all the $11.4 TRILLION US debt!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,764
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:06pm Sep 26, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Very true mate, but Israel will not give two hoots. This is just the thing to end a stock rally tho and something to be aware of should you be long usd, short oil and gold. In truth the US and UK would fight a proxy-war thru Israel. Meanwhile back on the charts.......
  • #5,765
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:10pm Sep 26, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Very true mate, but Israel will not give two hoots. This is just the thing to end a stock rally tho and something to be aware of should you be long usd, short oil and gold. In truth the US and UK would fight a proxy-war thru Israel. Meanwhile back on the charts.......
Danny boy, haven't you read my post? It's all in the stars - specifically Uranus!

Now, what's that smell?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,766
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:21pm Sep 26, 2009 2:21pm
Strat has asked me to write a little about how I have progressed to where I am now on the path of learning.

First I would like to say that when I came to this thread I was much like most you, my trading account was in a huge loss for the year as was my moral, I was stressed out and angry at myself wondering how I could possibly have lost this much money in such a short period of time?? (Short TF’s and the things I list below is what I found to be the problem)

There are a few things that have helped me immensely improve my trading and guess what they are the few things that Strat is always stressing to us.

PATIENCE * I had NONE when I came to this thread, I was trading anything that even remotely looked like a SS or a hammer. I would trade small bars, big bars, bars that meant nothing you name it, I felt like I had to be in the market.

To think like I was is ridiculous, take just a moment and open up your MT4 account and pull up the last full year of charting data for about 15 pairs or so. Now scan through them and find how many STRESS FREE trades just pop out at you! Then look at how many pips they usually run for. You should notice (that is if you have been training your eyeballs to see PA like the back of your hand) that there are an average of at least 4-8 great Daily trades a year in each pair (and trust me there are many more when you start using DSRI and some of the other tricks Strat has showed us) then you will notice that these average anywhere from 300-1000+ pips!!

Can you SEE how easy this can be if we just wait for the market to show its hand?


DICIPLINE * It just so happens that I was severely lacking in this department too. We need to come up with a trading plan for each trade we take and then FOLLOW this plan, period paragraph!

FILTER THE NOIZE * Do NOT listen to what others on the thread say about THEIR trades! Doing so will stop you from thinking for yourself! We will all see our charts differently, we all have our own views and opinions on what we think the market will do if you don’t see it on your chart with your own eyeballs don’t trade it. Its as simple as that stick to the basics taught here and trade YOUR charts as YOU see them.

Try some Weekly trades out. Remember the boss tells the worker what to do! I hardly see anyone making Boss trades. And I must admit I have made very few myself but I am working on it.

These are personally some of the things that have helped me look at this business differently over the past few months, and of course this is just me some of you may have other problems I have not mentioned to overcome, but I guess the point I am trying to make here is these are all Psychological problems.

WE ARE JUST FIGHTING OURSELVES HERE!

Finding a SS or a hammer to trade is EASY! Its managing this trade and squeezing out all of the risk free pips the market allows us that is the HARD part.
  • #5,767
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:27pm Sep 26, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting strat
What was it that Elvis used to say, “Lordy, Lordy?”...
Thanks Strat - a song for my star sign too!! The Water Carrier. Now, is anyone on fire? (Light my Fire - The Doors)

I must confess I switch off whenever I see any of that astrological cr@p. Too grounded - I guess for the same reasons I hate Si-Fi films too!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,768
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:28pm Sep 26, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Strat has asked me to write a little about how I have progressed to where I am now on the path of learning.

First I would like to say that when I came to this thread I was much like most you, my trading account was in a huge loss for the year as was my moral, I was stressed out and angry at myself wondering how I could possibly have lost this much money in such a short period of time?? (Short TF’s and the things I list below is what I found to be the problem)

There are a few things that have helped me immensely improve my trading and guess what...
Thank you, Craig.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,769
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:53pm Sep 26, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting strat
15 Traders Viewing This Thread (10 are members)...
One of those invisibles will be you Strat right? you have your profile settings set to hide when your online? I think this is somewhat new because it never used to say that up till a few weeks ago.
  • #5,770
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:03pm Sep 26, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
One of those invisibles will be you Strat right? you have your profile settings set to hide when your online? I think this is somewhat new because it never used to say that up till a few weeks ago.
Yes, Craig, I guessed it was that since he was always there on every thread I visited!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,771
  • Sep 26, 2009 4:27pm Sep 26, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting 30XTCi
@ Nicola, Check out the Gann levels on EURUSD and USDCHF.

Roy
Thanks Roy XXX
  • #5,772
  • Sep 26, 2009 6:10pm Sep 26, 2009 6:10pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
WE ARE JUST FIGHTING OURSELVES HERE!
Great post Craig. The clear teaching and discussions on this thread have really made a big difference to my trading (and life) already...and I am just beginning. The stress of trading (reacting to) low time frames and not really realizing what I was doing was turning me into a zombie...I don't feel that way anymore and reading your success story makes the path clearer.
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,773
  • Sep 26, 2009 7:14pm Sep 26, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi Strat!

Can this be considered a BUEB? With a good sign above the 1.1000 level??

USDCAD BOSS
Hi Chris
This is certainly a big SR level for USDCAD, a yearly one (see chart).
I am watching closely to see if support becomes resistance or where we go from here. Of the commodity currencies(AUD, NZD, CAD) CAD has been the weakest lately.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad weekly.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #5,774
  • Sep 26, 2009 8:36pm Sep 26, 2009 8:36pm
Almost done reading the entire thread....it has been well worth it. I have put all trading (demo account) on hold until I finish, which will be tomorrow.

It is amazing that this type of education is available free, I have spent tons of money on books for stock market trading which I have been doing for 5 years, but none have taught me as much as this thread.

Now back to reading....

I will start attempting analysis as of next week.
  • #5,775
  • Sep 26, 2009 10:47pm Sep 26, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting elitejets
Hi Chris
This is certainly a big SR level for USDCAD, a yearly one (see chart).
I am watching closely to see if support becomes resistance or where we go from here. Of the commodity currencies(AUD, NZD, CAD) CAD has been the weakest lately.
Nicola’s Labrador just gave birth to 6 puppies this last Tuesday but unfortunately 2 didn’t make it. The remaining 4 are in good health so Congratulations our Nicola – now you have a REAL excuse to stay up all night and trade London!

Moving on:

Everyone,

Look at that HAMMER on November 09 2007. Pull up your charts, look at it, study it. (Mine is not as good as Nicola’s but it’s still a cracker!) Now that is the most beautiful, gorgeous HAMMER you will ever see. I almost feel like asking it out for a drink and sharing breakfast with me the next day!

You don’t see these very often but when you do, make sure you know what to do!

Look at the carnage before it – 11 months of non – stop selling – 2,397 pips for one contract. These are the trades Crudecraig was talking about. These are the trades we PATIENTLY lie in wait for. These are the trades that make up for all those losers and crappy trades. These are the trades when you know how to trade them, will make your annual salary over and over! (If you can last the journey on The Path of Learning, you will be able to stay in this trade for the whole 11 months).

I have said it in previous posts: USDCAD likes to make “V” bottoms – this is another PERFECT EXAMPLE. Look how it STOPPED that sell off DEAD IN IT’S TRACKS!

Then, not satisfied with that, look to the right and although it was not as easy to trade, I can tell you that what we made on the upside made the sell off look like rat droppings!

Nicola, please zoom in on your chart to just show the 2 highs and that beautiful, gorgeous hammer and then post it again. This time we will frame it so that we can gloat over it every day.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,776
  • Edited 11:06pm Sep 26, 2009 10:55pm | Edited 11:06pm
Quoting pipfx
Almost done reading the entire thread....it has been well worth it. I have put all trading (demo account) on hold until I finish, which will be tomorrow.

It is amazing that this type of education is available free, I have spent tons of money on books for stock market trading which I have been doing for 5 years, but none have taught me as much as this thread.

Now back to reading....

I will start attempting analysis as of next week.
Reading is the easy bit - did you understand each post?

What more can we do to improve the thread? (Providing signals and trades is NOT an option).

""I will start attempting analysis as of next week.""

Goody, goody - another one for Strat to ""have a go"" at. I hope you have a thick, tough skin and are not easily upset!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,777
  • Sep 27, 2009 12:10am Sep 27, 2009 12:10am
Quoting strat
Nicola’s Labrador just gave birth to 6 puppies this last Tuesday but unfortunately 2 didn’t make it. The remaining 4 are in good health so Congratulations our Nicola – now you have a REAL excuse to stay up all night and trade London!...
Very nice indeed

very against the trend though, I would not be comfortable trading it I don't think
  • #5,778
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:20am Sep 27, 2009 4:20am
Quoting strat
You may need to sit down for this!

2 Guns Blazin’ Dave,

Before I answer this post, the dominant theme from your two posts I am seeing is:

FRUSTRATION! Frustration leads to illogical and inaccurate thinking, the results of which can be no worse than attempting to trade during this period. You must ALWAYS be in the right frame of mind to trade.

[font=Arial]Frustration means YOU are NO LONGER IN CONTROL. You are being CONTROLLED by your EMOTIONS. The little man in your head, the guy in...
Strat,

The frustration comes from seeing a lot fewer setups on the daily timeframe than on the shorter timeframes.

Thank you for taking the time to consider what I said and giving your advice.

Yes, you could say I'm frustrated. I suppose that comes from trading on 5min tf's for quite a while and seeing a lot of setups each day - and very few on the daily. Using daily and weekly charts in technical analysis is "uncharted" territory for me. But it's very unlikely I will ever seriously consider trying daytrading again because after a long time of trying everything I heard of, read, or created, I still couldn't get consistently profitable. I can tell you I am determined to succeed and I will do whatever it takes, and it as much as I hate to say it, I will work as LONG as it takes.

I think it's just taking some time for me to settle down and understand that on the daily there are not anywhere as many opportunities, but once I learn to identify the good ones I can see they will be much more reliable and profitable than the ones on shorter tf's. It's easy to say that but hard to realize it.

I think when I started trading I got this picture in my mind about what being a trader was supposed to be. Probably from all the ads and hype on the financial networks I thought it was supposed to be a fast and furious game of placing trades all day long - and making big bux just as fast. Nonsense. It may work for them but not for me.

It surprises me Strat, but you can spot what is causing some of my difficulties better than I can myself. In fact, you (and the other traders here) have helped me avoid some real foul-ups already. And I truly appreciate that.

I've always been honest with myself and when I have some weakness or flaw in my thinking I would try to improve on it, but trading seems to be revealing flaws I didn't think I had. The ol' lady might be right when she said I didn't have any patience. Could have been when I said I want it all, and want it now. Yep, I should have known.

Now where did I put that book on Zen I used to have?

I'll learn the right way to trade eventually. Please be patient.

How about this; you keep pointing out the mistakes and I'll keep fixing 'em. OK?

Thanks,
Dave
  • #5,779
  • Sep 27, 2009 4:25am Sep 27, 2009 4:25am
Quoting CrudeCraig

Then look at how many pips they usually run for. You should notice (that is if you have been training your eyeballs to see PA like the back of your hand) that there are an average of at least 4-8 great Daily trades a year in each pair (and trust me there are many more when you start using DSRI and some of the other tricks Strat has showed us)
I agree taht there is a lot of setups during the year.
How many % would you risk per trade? As I risk just 1% I can not take all the setups because Im in trade for couple of weeks or months so If Im in 5-6 trades it means Im risking 5-6% of the account and I should not take other trades as I was told. It is unfortunate but maybe 10-15 trades at the time should not be so big problem. Or maybe I should close trades much faster, what do u think?
Thank you
alter
  • #5,780
  • Sep 27, 2009 5:27am Sep 27, 2009 5:27am
Quoting Naws
Very nice indeed

very against the trend though, I would not be comfortable trading it I don't think
That's one of the counter trend trades I was talking about.

Looking at it in hindsight it was awesome, but I agree it would be hard to commit much to it at the time since it was not at any previous SR level and if I recall, everyone for months before was talking about how selling USDCAD was about as profitable and risk-free as it gets. Smooth profits.

It would take a true contrarian to fade that market.

I don't know much about it, but found the following...

According to Investopedia fading is described as:

A contrarian investment strategy used to trade against the prevailing trend. "Fading the market" is typically very high risk, requiring the trader to have a high risk tolerance. A fade trader would sell when a price is rising and buy when it's falling.

Being a noob, that would have been out of my league for sure.
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