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  • #5,741
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:35am Sep 26, 2009 3:35am
Three years ago in another life, when I only looked at "those other Time frames", I never imagined myself saying this, but, I'm really starting to like the "Boss".
I don't know how accurate my analysis is, but I thought I would throw this out there as It makes sense to me, and goes a long way to explain what the EURUSD has been doing for the last four Months.

Connecting the lows of 2000 with strats/Dr. joe's Dynamic Res/sup line through the lows of 2005/6, as shown in the Big Boss chart, brings us to the present day as seen on the Boss chart. If this DSR is in the right place , it can be seen that for fifteen weeks the Euro has been banging it's head against this old trend line trying to break thru to the topside.

When it met up with the current weekly DSR something had to give. This is the reason I said five weeks ago it's time to move on.

@ Nicola, Check out the Gann levels on EURUSD and USDCHF.

Roy
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Polishing my crystal ball
  • #5,742
  • Sep 26, 2009 4:36am Sep 26, 2009 4:36am
Hi Strat!

Can this be considered a BUEB? With a good sign above the 1.1000 level??

USDCAD BOSS
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Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #5,743
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:08am Sep 26, 2009 9:08am
Quoting PistolDave
I'm waiting to see what happens in the next few days. Could be interesting.

If good PASR indicates a low-risk entry to go long at the 141.00 area, would it be worthwhile to try it, or given that the trend appears to have turned bearish now would a wise trader wait for a pullback to the 149.50 area to look to sell short there?

If you short at that level you would still have to deal with the 141.00 support again when (or if) price drops that far again. But with the right entry it could still be profitable.

Thanks,
Dave


Bloody hell, Dave, you are aptly named. Maybe “”Two Guns Blazin’ Dave”” would be better! I read this last night before going to the Land of Nod thinking I maybe dreamt it, but NO, it was still here this morning!

“”If good PASR indicates a low-risk entry to go long at the 141.00 area, would it be worthwhile to try it, or given that the trend appears to have turned bearish now would a wise trader wait for a pullback to the 149.50 area to look to sell short there?””

My goal on here is to teach the lowest risk, stress free way to trade for the best possible ROI.

So then I look at your statement above and I think, “Where did we go wrong with Dave?”

My first reaction to this is that your trading ego and cash rich account must be burning a hole in your pocket. If that is the case, I can save you all the hassle and time by sending you my account number for you to deposit your account in.

Let’s try and break this down logically, with common sense without any trading gusto.

You want to trade GBPJPY?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Why would you want to confront such a wild, irregular and unruly currency pair? It is not named “The Beast” for nothing. This pair alone has broken more trading accounts than any other. While it is reasonably calm just now, it may well be the calm before the storm. This thing can AND DOES, even on the Worker, turn around in a heartbeat and reverse through stops like a hot knife through butter.

The average Daily range on this thing is about 200 pips

This means, at the minimum, you need a $10,000 trading account to even qualify to look at this.

Have you mastered all the other 21 pairs with a proven and growing equity curve over at least 12 months?

Is this currency pair LOW RISK? Hell, NO!

To everyone:

Do NOT attempt to trade GBPJPY until you have mastered ALL the other currencies. Even then, trade it with extreme caution.

For those on The Path, it is better to start off with the more pedantic currency pairs like EURUSD and USDJPY.

Moving on:

Dave, which one do you think YOU are on Post #5660 ?

Amateurs manage money by taking RISK

Professionals manage RISK by taking money.


Professionals look for a reason NOT TO TAKE A TRADE

Trading is a Zero Sum game – SOMEONE HAS TO LOSE

Another question:

Do you “see” an opportunity for a trade or are you looking to trade?

I know you qualified your question with “If” but making money from trading is not, and never will be, about “Ifs”. It is always about the NOW.

Amateurs are always analyzing charts with “what if” scenarios

Professionals only analyze charts with “NOW” opportunities

Again, to everyone:

If the chart does not present a trading opportunity, move on to the next chart.

You can do a “what if” scenario until the cows come home and IT DOES NOT CHANGE THINGS! The market will do tomorrow, and the day after that, what it wants to do regardless of what you think might happen and any “what if” scenarios you plan.

Ask some more questions:

Is there is a reason to trade? NO!

Is there a reason NOT TO TRADE? HELL, YES………….MANY!

“”would a wise trader””

Dave, forgive me, there are NO wise traders. There are only 2 types of traders:

Winning traders

LOSING TRADERS

You can be the wisest, most gifted man on earth and still be a LOSING trader.

Trading respects no-one, wise or un-wise, only the PATIENT and DISCIPLINED.

Summary:

Don’t LOOK for opportunities, “SEE” opportunities

If a chart has no opportunities, forget it, move on

Only trade low risk pairs

Be PATIENT to wait for the opportunities to present themselves

Be DISCIPLINED to follow your PLAN and METHOD
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,744
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:13am Sep 26, 2009 9:13am
Quoting strat
Bloody hell, Dave, you are aptly named. Maybe “”Two Guns Blazin’ Dave”” would be better! I read this last night before going to the Land of Nod thinking I maybe dreamt it, but NO, it was still here this morning!
Strat may 'kick my ass' for saying this Dave as i know he encourages everyone to trade each chart on its merits, but take a look at Sterling across all the crosses.

No one wants it and it's very weak. I would be very reluctant to buy into Sterling on any pair at the moment.
  • #5,745
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:18am Sep 26, 2009 9:18am
FYI GBPJPY is not on my list either.
  • #5,746
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:25am Sep 26, 2009 9:25am
Quoting Chris_B
Hi Strat!

Can this be considered a BUEB? With a good sign above the 1.1000 level??

USDCAD BOSS
Bonjourno!

It is most definitely a BUEB on your chart......................BUT, your DSRI is not drawn correctly which will lead you down the wrong Path.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,747
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:40am Sep 26, 2009 9:40am
Quoting AstonDan
Strat may 'kick my ass' for saying this Dave as i know he encourages everyone to trade each chart on its merits, but take a look at Sterling across all the crosses.

No one wants it and it's very weak. I would be very reluctant to buy into Sterling on any pair at the moment.
Not at all, Dan. As I have said in many of my posts and trades “When all the pairs move together…………….”

I was really wanting to discourage people looking at Crude, Gold, S&P, Dow etc for direction on currencies.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,748
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:50am Sep 26, 2009 9:50am
Quoting Grimweasel
MT4 guys -

Another tip I have you all is this:

If you use MT4 (FXPro, Alpari etc) for your charting then always, always enter the trade on your demo MT4 platform as you do with your broker....
Thanks for this info Grim, it looks as if it will be very useful for someone like me. At the moment I am doing it all on Excel. I will experiment with MT4 when I get back from my hols!!
  • #5,749
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:55am Sep 26, 2009 9:55am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Thanks for this info Grim, it looks as if it will be very useful for someone like me. At the moment I am doing it all on Excel. I will experiment with MT4 when I get back from my hols!!
Don't underestimate how much Excel can benefit your trading LEM. MT4's detailed statments are fine but a well kept Excel document can tell you an awful lot more about your trading performance, and it's easy to create an equity curve as well.

Mine has actual performance vs projected, higher (and lower) yeilding currencies, average % growth per trade, per day, per week etc etc.

Excel should be your best friend
  • #5,750
  • Sep 26, 2009 10:02am Sep 26, 2009 10:02am
Quoting AstonDan
Don't underestimate how much Excel can benefit your trading LEM. MT4's detailed statments are fine but a well kept Excel document can tell you an awful lot more about your trading performance, and it's easy to create an equity curve as well.

Mine has actual performance vs projected, higher (and lower) yeilding currencies, average % growth per trade, per day, per week etc etc.

Excel should be your best friend
Very well said, Dan.

On MT4, you are LIMITED to the information they provide.

With Excel you can enter ANYTHING on your Log - even something like "not really feeling up to it today but......"

I have lost count of the number of traders I have been involved with whose performance drastically improved through keeping a detailed log of their trades.

In fact, I think Dan is one of them, so you really have it from the horses' mouth and not just the old fart!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,751
  • Edited 2:08pm Sep 26, 2009 10:57am | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting strat
15 Traders Viewing This Thread (10 are members) Invisible, dart, Invisible, Invisible, Invisible, jjibl, metto, Lotuselanman, localia, g007...
Maybe me.
Looking your thread but not logged in. Still reading, because is so long, and I don't like to post meaningless or misinform coments. Anyway, I find it interesting and helpful to improve my own strategy.

I trade "stressing" 1H and doing good so far, but the life of a trader is the permanent search for improvment, isnt it?

Post Data: My nickname is not picked from your thread.
  • #5,752
  • Sep 26, 2009 10:58am Sep 26, 2009 10:58am
Quoting strat
Bonjourno!

It is most definitely a BUEB on your chart......................BUT, your DSRI is not drawn correctly which will lead you down the wrong Path.
Ok...thanks Strat..

I hope now i've found the error in my DSRI...is now correct?

If it is...I can see a total different picture now on AUDCAD...
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Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #5,753
  • Sep 26, 2009 11:11am Sep 26, 2009 11:11am
Quoting Chris_B
Ok...thanks Strat..

I hope now i've found the error in my DSRI...is now correct?

If it is...I can see a total different picture now on AUDCAD...
As Roy Orbison sings............YOU GOT IT!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,754
  • Sep 26, 2009 11:18am Sep 26, 2009 11:18am
Quoting PistolDave
I had another question about the setup I posted just above.

It seems like this happens often: Price moves through a SR level and I don't know whether to wait for a pullback to enter with the trend, or to wait for a reversal candle and try a countertrend trade.

The countertrend setups I have tried don't seem to work out very often, but when I wait for the pullback it either doesn't show up or when it does there is no setup (that I am familar with) to be able to enter confidently with the trend, so it goes on ahead without me...

... then I...
You may need to sit down for this!

2 Guns Blazin’ Dave,

Before I answer this post, the dominant theme from your two posts I am seeing is:

FRUSTRATION! Frustration leads to illogical and inaccurate thinking, the results of which can be no worse than attempting to trade during this period. You must ALWAYS be in the right frame of mind to trade.

Frustration means YOU are NO LONGER IN CONTROL. You are being CONTROLLED by your EMOTIONS. The little man in your head, the guy in the mirror, the gremlins and demons; THEY are all CONTROLLING YOU, Dave.

Step back, relax, take a look at yourself. Trading is NOT the most important thing in YOUR life. YOUR health and family are far more important than anything else. Thank whoever you believe in that you have your life, health and family.

Forget everything about trading for as long as it takes until you can come back with an open, fresh, clear and receptive mind.

Now, when you do come back:

Let’s break this post down into sections:

“”It seems like this happens often: Price moves through a SR level and I don't know whether to wait for a pullback to enter with the trend, or to wait for a reversal candle and try a countertrend trade.””

You are still learning BASICS so why are you thinking “”countertrend trades””?

FORGET COUNTER TREND TRADES UNTIL YOU HAVE MASTERED TREND TRADES!

So that’s one of your options eliminated.

If price breaks through a previously established level it means the market has no respect for that level. Usually, but not always, it means price will continue in the direction of the break out.

Consider a break through of Support meaning that there is SUPPLY in the market or in simple terms, there are MORE SELLERS than buyers.

Ask yourself this question: Do you want to trade WITH the majority, the dominant players or AGAINST them? Do you want to stand in the middle of the Freeway facing 6 lanes full of 18 wheelers hurling at you at 70 mph?

It doesn’t always happen and there is a risk of missing out on the trade (missing out on a trade is OK, you have not LOST anything, there are plenty more trades elsewhere) but the safest, low risk way is to LOOK FOR A RE-TEST of the breakout. Look at CrudeCraig’s chart on GBPUSD – do you see the re-test of the DSRI? Now how safe and low risk was that?

“”The countertrend setups I have tried don't seem to work out very often, but when I wait for the pullback it either doesn't show up or when it does there is no setup (that I am familar with) to be able to enter confidently with the trend, so it goes on ahead without me...””

COUNTER TREND TRADES ARE HIGH RISK TRADES!
Again, FORGET counter trend trades UNTIL you have mastered TREND trading.

If it doesn’t pull back or PA doesn’t show up on YOUR chart and you MISS the trade SO WHAT? Just be thankful that you didn’t get in a trade that LOST. YOUR data on YOUR chart may NOT present YOU with the opportunity others show on their charts – ITS NO BIG DEAL! YOU will have opportunities on YOUR charts that others don’t have on theirs. Over the course of time, everything evens out.

When you MISS an opportunity, for whatever reason, FORGET IT, MOVE ON! DO NOT BROOD OVER IT. Look for opportunities on other pairs.

“”then I find myself looking for ways to enter without seeing a clear setup. For instance, I will say to myself "that’s an IB and price is moving down so it's a low-risk short entry" etc. And it usually wouldn't work - but sometimes it would have.””

Dave, go back to my opening paragraph and my reply to your previous post.

YOU are NOT IN CONTROL – your EMOTIONS are. Until you turn this around and GET BACK CONTROL in your trading life, you will forever do everything wrong.

FORGET IBs UNTIL YOU CAN MASTER THE BASICS OF WHAT IS BEING TAUGHT ON HERE.

That’s another option eliminated for you.

IBs can be simple on one chart and complex on another. The rebel in me says despite what the “experts” say, there is NO RULE to trade IBs. (Sorry Peter Crowns). We have to trade each and every IB on its own merits within the context of the pair being traded.

Until you know what you are doing, AND YOU CLEARLY DON’T, FORGET IBS & IGNORE THEM.

“”Maybe there is something basic that I'm not understanding about the method.””

Only you can answer this Dave. If you don’t understand anything, ask like you have done today and keep asking until the light shines brightly.

Aside from technical skills and the method, you MUST have PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE. Without these two, you will NEVER be successful and profitable in trading.

Above everything else Dave, you are a Classic example of what the trading psychology “experts” write about, you are being fuelled by your EMOTIONS, specifically GREED. Please read my advice above and do the things I suggest to get back CONTROL in your trading life. Good Luck.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,755
  • Sep 26, 2009 11:49am Sep 26, 2009 11:49am
What was it that Elvis used to say, “Lordy, Lordy?”

Well, Lordy, Lordy, I can’t stop laughing after reading this financial astrology tripe sent to me today:

“”The stock market finally broke last week. When slow moving planets as far out as Saturn and Uranus make an exact aspect, it can take up to 12 trading days before a reversal in some financial markets unfolds. In this case, it took six days afterwards.””

“”Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummet about 2000 points in the next 3-4 weeks as it did in the first two passages of November 4 and February 5? Or will the decline be mild this time, given that the opposition took place during the retrograde Mercury time band (September 6-29), a cosmic phenomenon that oftentimes fails to produce the same results observed during prior geocosmic instances?””

Mercy, mercy, Lord, please have mercy!

The stock market broke last week because it reached a level (Supply) where PRICE was no longer sustainable, where there was no more value, WHERE THERE WERE NO MORE BUYERS BUT LOTS OF SELLERS!

People it’s that SIMPLE!

From the 60’s song AQUARIUS:

When the moon is in the Seventh House
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars

This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius
The age of Aquarius
Aquarius!
Aquarius!

Music is the only reason I can find for discussing Planets and other heavenly objects.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,756
  • Sep 26, 2009 12:52pm Sep 26, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting AstonDan
Don't underestimate how much Excel can benefit your trading LEM. MT4's detailed statments are fine but a well kept Excel document can tell you an awful lot more about your trading performance, and it's easy to create an equity curve as well.

Mine has actual performance vs projected, higher (and lower) yeilding currencies, average % growth per trade, per day, per week etc etc.

Excel should be your best friend
Well said Dan da Man - I'm not 'dissing' Excel at all, just some people like to see things in pictures and MT4 does this easily for new traders - keeps you concentrating on the PA rather than filling in Excel data all day - that will come as you learn the PA.

I need to do an Excel cse as work as I'm an Excel biff I'm afraid! Any chance of a copy of yours Dan? Sounds useful!!!
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,757
  • Sep 26, 2009 12:53pm Sep 26, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting forexample
To strat and all those here...have just found this thread and not really looking forward to reading another 3oo something page thread but this one seems it is worth it lol.

I have been following jacko's thread and while I like his style of trading I do like to follow multiple pairs and I am also fond of the D1. I just recently read strat's post about energies etc aligning and I have finally found my comfort zone with D1 confirmed by W1.

I don't use the MA's, just trendlines and a few candle setups when they are clear. For example this weeks EU...
Ohio gazaimus or Konichi wa, exempli gratia!

Thank you for your post which highlights your experience in trading and thank you for the opportunity (between seeing Wigan beat Chelsea 3-1) to discuss “old”, but still very important, topics.

“”….have just found this thread and not really looking forward to reading another 300 something page thread but this one seems it is worth it””

Although very biased, I can assure you it IS worth your while to read all 384 pages. I don’t know whether you get American Football now in Japan (they didn’t have any Western programs when we lived in Tokyo on 1995) but if you can afford to waste 41/2 hours watching that then it would be better spent reading the whole of this thread.

“”I just recently read strat's post about energies etc aligning and I have finally found my comfort zone with D1 confirmed by W1.””

“”……..but it was just recently I read strat's post on energy and vibrations and I have found the using W1 trendlines as the BOSS and D1 trendlines as the WORKER (is this what this means...I am not even into this thread enough to know) works best for me.””

I would guess most people reading my post on “energies and vibrations” must have thought I was either a quack or a Beach Boys fan (Good Vibrations). I am glad you appreciate and understand how our brain, mind and spirit is governed by these external forces. I just feel sorry for those who don’t and continue to fight themselves trading time frames, methods and strategies which clearly incites resonance within their internal structure.

Moving on:

“”I was a bit like PistolDave hunting for reversals but have realised how dumb that was...””

“”Its only recently I kind of saw the light here...till then I was like...its moving up, there must be a spot for a reversal/countertrend trade here...but if I had just placed a trade in the main direction all those times I'd be up 100% by now.””

We have all been there and some of us are still there. Despite what we read “Don’t try to pick Tops and Bottoms”, we continue to do it. I don’t know whether it is the way we have been brought up, ( a good thing cannot continue, it must stop or nothing is ever this good) or what but it seems the “natural” thing to do. I keep finding myself doing this and need a quick dose of “Dr. Joe” to bring me back to my senses.

“”IT KEEPS ON GOING UP UNTIL IT STOPS GOING UP”” is far more valuable than most realise. Remembering this will keep many out of a bad trade.

“”Obviously the strength lies in the details but the number of times I've placed a trade to see the stop hunted then go my way has been so frustrating that these days I am a bit more liberal with stops and give more space than I used to and have found it better off.””

Small stops, based on some mathematical formula, is one of the reasons why most people lose on any time frame. As you will see in my posts, I teach placing stops behind the footprints left by the market and even then with some contingency. However, if the big boys go on a Stop Run, all bets are off.

“”Obviously with the D1 you need room to move but even with a 1K account you can have a 200 pip stop that's only 2% of account which is my risk comfort.””

Is it your calculator or my abacus, but 2% of $1,000 is $20 or 20 pips when trading $1 per pip?

“”The one thing I have learnt is that trading is random and governed by trader's emotions secondly and banks orders firstly, not any laws of science, so trying to be like Dr. Joe is all we can do...getting frustrated because we cannot see the future is unreasonable.””

I guess we are into semantics here, and each to his own, but I do not believe the markets, and therefore trading, is random. For me it’s just a history lesson. The trick is to find which history lesson is being read at the current time!

To the best of my knowledge, the Forex market is driven by computer trading (MMs and Big Boys) followed by Hedge Funds and then Investment Banks. We private traders are just fly shit in a jar of pepper!

Trying to predict the future in anything is like trying to understand a woman (sorry Nicola and Alexandra).

Exempli Gratia, to give you your “posh” handle, I hope you stay with us as you have a very refreshing common sense and logic and we look forward to your further posts.
Sayanara
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,758
  • Edited 1:08pm Sep 26, 2009 1:06pm | Edited 1:08pm
Iran......

Now I know one should never consider the news / funnymentals etc but one thing worth keeping an eye on is the nuclear situation in Iran. They have now admitted to a second advanced uranium enrichment plant. This could spook the markets on Monday as the UK has not ruled out military action, although they are committed to a 100% diplomatic solution.

Israel is the one to watch as Iran has already publicly admitted that it wants to see Israel eliminated from the map! Will they carry out a preemptive strike??

Oil and gold could shoot up and the indices plummet, but this is all speculative. Just one to keep an eye on -- Poss 'Black Swan' on your charts! In times like this it may be better to use guaranteed stops (if your broker offers them) as a huge market event could plough thru your stops and give you a nasty slippage surprise!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,759
  • Sep 26, 2009 1:38pm Sep 26, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting 30XTCi
Three years ago in another life, when I only looked at "those other Time frames", I never imagined myself saying this, but, I'm really starting to like the "Boss".
I don't know how accurate my analysis is, but I thought I would throw this out there as It makes sense to me, and goes a long way to explain what the EURUSD has been doing for the last four Months.

Connecting the lows of 2000 with strats/Dr. joe's Dynamic Res/sup line through the lows of 2005/6, as shown in the Big Boss chart, brings us to the present day as seen on the Boss chart....
For those that don’t know, Roy is my “alter ego” when it comes to discussing “off the wall”, “out of the box”, “beyond the envelope” thinking with regard to trading. He has put in the thousands and thousands of hours needed to get him where he is.

Finally, boyo, you have seen the magic of both the BIG BOSS and BOSS!

Thanks for bringing this to the attention of our readers.

A few corrections if I may, my Welsh wizard down under:

DSRI is all of my weird and distorted fabrication, which I have just recently found out, is “very similar” to what some International Banks use! It’s not exact, they tell me, but enough to ‘rattle their cages!”.

Dr. Joe never used S&R, whether he knew it was there or not, he had absolute no interest in it. He just applied Gann’s theory and ran with the trend – keep it simple!

No, Roy, your DSRI is not in the right place. If you look at mine, drawn on the BIG BOSS, you will see the difference. If you don’t understand, you know what to do.

This then, puts a truly different complexion on the picture and situation but, as you rightly point out, explains the situation we are in.

The BOSS chart is just the BIG BOSS dropped down a time frame. In other words, the DSRI shown on the BOSS, is that from the BIG BOSS.

Nos da, boyo and I hope you are surfing some good waves down there in Perth!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,760
  • Sep 26, 2009 1:44pm Sep 26, 2009 1:44pm
The beauty of trendlines (or DSRI). As with CADJPY, whether it holds or breaks tells us something important.

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