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Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

  • #101
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:13pm Sep 24, 2009 1:13pm
Sorry, I should be clear that I'm not looking for an answer because for me the question's already been answered a long time ago. And maths is the wrong tool for this as well, because there's an assumption that non-random = profitable. But sticking with maths for a minute...

Do you consider then, for example, the hourly distribution of range highs/lows plotted by hour for the past 1/2/5/10 years to be nothing but a freak occurrence?
  • #102
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:43pm Sep 24, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting triphop
Sorry, I should be clear that I'm not looking for an answer because for me the question's already been answered a long time ago. And maths is the wrong tool for this as well, because there's an assumption that non-random = profitable. But sticking with maths for a minute...

Do you consider then, for example, the hourly distribution of range highs/lows plotted by hour for the past 1/2/5/10 years to be nothing but a freak occurrence?
Trihop, thanks for your thoughts. I am not going to engage at this time. If you believe that forex cannot be explained in mathematical terms, then I am afraid that I can't say or present anything of value to you. My points are pretty well laid out in the "Long Term Profits with Negative Expectancy" thread. I wish you well.

Regards
  • #103
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:45pm Sep 24, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting triphop
Sorry, I should be clear that I'm not looking for an answer because for me the question's already been answered a long time ago. And maths is the wrong tool for this as well, because there's an assumption that non-random = profitable. But sticking with maths for a minute...

Do you consider then, for example, the hourly distribution of range highs/lows plotted by hour for the past 1/2/5/10 years to be nothing but a freak occurrence?
could not agree more.
maths is the way for high-freq trading which, to work properly, needs access to an extensive amount of funds. nevertheless, even this occurence which is based on maths places the trades based on tracking the orderflow.

it all comes back to accumulation & distribution.
(trying) to track the orderflow and reading demand/ supply situations in the market is the way to go. combine that with yourself as "the holy" grail and you have the system you are searching.
  • #104
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:38pm Sep 24, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
could not agree more.
maths is the way for high-freq trading which, to work properly, needs access to an extensive amount of funds. nevertheless, even this occurence which is based on maths places the trades based on tracking the orderflow.

it all comes back to accumulation & distribution.
(trying) to track the orderflow and reading demand/ supply situations in the market is the way to go. combine that with yourself as "the holy" grail and you have the system you are searching.
Spot on Dr G. Maths is fine to implement trading systems - simple volatility breakout ones are nothing but dumb equations and HFT systems appear to be based on Brownian motion algorithms (at least that what their job ads say they are looking for). It's just not adept at proving demand/supply exists. But given that demand/supply is the market, the question was never is it random, but are there players big enough to move the market (yes), so is it possible to deduce what those players are going to do (yes).
Will they change their methods over time? Doubtlessly yes.

That's why I find the whole randomness question so maddening, but take your point Petra, we've been down this road so all the best
  • #105
  • Last Post: Oct 12, 2009 3:20am Oct 12, 2009 3:20am
"HELLO?" hahah ahh how i needed that. thanks bro.

I'm not feeling that well right now.

Let's just shut down the Currency Marketz.

change the future, not the past
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